Thursday pre-sales

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		December 20
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2	--	14,846	--
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	8,719	4,502	-48.4%
3	CZ12	--	2,214	--
4	Wreck-It Ralph	--	2,061	--
5	Jack Reacher	--	1,872	--

How does this compare to previous "Twilight" installments?

"Twilight" Movie	Thu. Presales	% diff
Breaking Dawn Pt. 2	14,876
Eclipse	25,553	-41.8%
Breaking Dawn Pt. 1	16,573	-10.2%

It's down from the previous 2 but the good news is that Eclipse was buoyed by a holiday and Breaking Dawn Part 1 had no special screenings like Part 2 did. If we add the 6,292 admissions from last Saturday...

"Twilight" Movie	Thu. Presales	% diff
Breaking Dawn Pt. 2	21,168
Eclipse	25,553	-17.2%
Breaking Dawn Pt. 1	16,573	+27.7%

Not too shabby. Decent start for Twilight. It is looking at 32,000 admissions for the day.

The Hobbit will hold much better throughout the day. I'd say about a 12,000 2nd Thursday (or a 35% drop from opening day). CZ12 started off well considering Jackie Chan's most recent films. Wreck-It Ralph opened quite good. Very poor for Jack Reacher. Might not even make half of Knight and Day's opening day admissions.

I'll be doing more comparisons tomorrow.

Perhaps the marketing didn't help Jack Reacher, but when people hear WOM, I think it'll pick up.

Wreck-It Ralph is ahead of Happy Feet 2 and Megamind at this stage, however, both Happy Feet 2 and Megamind had Christmas holidays included in their weekends yet Wreck-It Ralph will not. Also, Wreck-It Ralph had week long sneaks to dilute its opening day.

I see Wreck-It Ralph making at least 1.5m with an outside shot at 2m depending on how great WOM is.

Agreed. It's not even the weekend yet but Wreck-It-Ralph is already running neck and neck with CZ12 and Jack Reacher. I think it'll see a substantial weekend boost.

CZ12 did not outright bomb. Its matinee was pretty strong but night shows are lagging a bit.

Yep. Les Mis and Wreck-It Ralph could be the 2 standouts of the holiday season.

CZ12 is up more than 100% from 1911 on opening day. And 1911 had a typhoon holiday to boost admissions. It will be Jackie Chan's largest opening in 2 years -- where he had the starring role, not a supporting one.

Introducing...the top 10 admissions for the first time!

Pre-sales

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		December 20
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2	--	14,846	--
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	8,719	4,502	-48.4%
3	CZ12	--	2,214	--
4	Wreck-It Ralph	--	2,061	--
5	Jack Reacher	--	1,872	--
6	Life of Pi	1,547	1,057	-31.7%
7	My Sassy Hubby	1,267	640	-49.5%
8	Penance Part 2	--	239	--
9	Bunny Drop	--	180	--
10	Penance Part 1	--	118	--

Final

	Thursday			December 20
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	% chg (adm.)
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2	--	32,222	--
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	18,440	10,728	-41.8%
3	CZ12	--	10,043	--
4	Jack Reacher	--	8,167	--
5	Wreck-It Ralph	--	6,050	--
6	Life of Pi	5,142	3,521	-31.5%
7	My Sassy Hubby	7,664	3,280	-57.2%
8	Bunny Drop	--	506	--
9	Cold War	1,658	479	-71.1%
10	A Ghost of A Chance	--	343	--

Acceptable for Breaking Dawn Part 2. Its opening day multiplier was 2.17. While opening day was in line with the previous Twilight films, Twilight is known for not gaining much through the period. I still think it will miss 1m although it shouldn't be by too much. Not bad for The Hobbit. Despite Breaking Dawn 2 having a 3:1 advantage in admissions, the gap in gross won't be that big. Maybe only $50,000 separation between the two. The Hobbit will continue to close the gap from last weekend and it should increase on Sunday, possibly Saturday as well. The Hobbit should be able to pass Twilight on Friday and then it should start to pull away on Saturday and Sunday. CZ12 is the first Jackie Chan film in 2 years to begin with 10,000 admissions on opening day. Reviews are horrible but that won't stop it from becoming the first Jackie Chan film in 2 years to make over $200,000 on opening weekend. Jack Reacher opened very poorly. It didn't even make half of Knight and Day's OD. Early reviews are fantastic though so this might be able to play well during the holiday season. Wreck-It Ralph opened very well. There's a slight chance it could gross over $500,000 for the 4-day. Life of Pi was very solid. I'm not calling 5m until I see Saturday first. Life of Pi will get clobbered by Les Mis sneaks so it's possible that it will have great holds on Thursday and Friday before nosediving on Saturday and Sunday. My Sassy Hubby's honeymoon is over. It won't get to 1.5m. Bunny Drop did pretty well despite only playing in 2 theaters. Cold War is eroding quickly. It will probably leave theaters next weekend. A Ghost of A Chance is holding on tight. Not bad.

Early Saturday Pre-sales

Les Misérables will be making its HK debut on Saturday. Most theaters will show sneaks on Saturday, Sunday and Monday before moving to a fuller release on Tuesday. Heck, some theaters have already given Les Mis full day showtimes due to extremely strong pre-selling. #1 is not of the question on Saturday and Sunday.

Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2 is still doing well with pre-sales but its not as robust as opening day. While theaters have rewarded it with 2, even 3 screens, it likely won't match the screens given because of frontloading.

The Hobbit is looking very strong on Saturday and Sunday. It's been doing much better than Thursday and Friday. It's also right on Breaking Dawn 2's tail. Some places have The Hobbit nearly tied with BD2 in admissions. When you factor in The Hobbit having double the ticket prices...well, The Hobbit is extremely likely to win over Breaking Dawn Part 2 on Saturday and Sunday.

Wreck-It Ralph will be the #4 contender this weekend. Since its Thursday admissions were strong, theaters have decided to upgrade its screen to a bigger one. This one has an outside chance of $500,000 for the 4-day.

I am done with this poll. Ugh.

		Thursday Actuals						December 20
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Screens	Days	Total
--	1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2	--	$218,062	--	62	1	$273,534
1	2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	$255,235	$124,847	-51.1%	68	8	$2,175,044
--	3	Wreck-It Ralph	--	$64,242	--	56	1	$220,365
--	4	CZ12	--	$63,796	--	43	1	$63,796
--	5	Jack Reacher	--	$55,642	--	32	1	$55,642
3	6	Life of Pi	$45,028	$31,858	-29.2%	33	29	$4,785,641
2	7	My Sassy Hubby	$49,858	$20,320	-59.2%	26	15	$1,085,476
5	8	Cold War	$10,185	$2,901	-71.5%	7	43	$5,450,185
4	9	Back to 1942	$13,245	$2,405	-81.8%	7	15	$332,990
--	10	Bunny Drop	--	$2,388	--	2	1	$2,388

Skyfall	$4,824,501
Due West 3D	$2,474,440
Rurouni Kenshin	$99,989

Breaking Dawn Part 2 beat BD1's opening day by over $33,000 without sneaks. For Twilight, it's an extremely strong opening day. It'll likely hit 1m this weekend for the first time ever. The Hobbit didn't have as strong of a multiplier as opening day. More people went and saw it in 2D yesterday which diluted its 2nd Thursday gross. Wreck-It Ralph had a wonderful opening day. It snuck by CZ12 to vault into 3rd. This is on course for $600,000+ this weekend (+ previews). CZ12, meanwhile, did extremely well considering Jackie Chan's recent spate of flops. It'll be Jackie Chan's biggest film since Shinjuku Incident. It will likely make around $300,000 this weekend. Jack Reacher opened meekly. It might not make half of Knight and Day's opening weekend but reviews are fantastic. Life of Pi held amazingly, however, Les Mis sneaks will affect it on Saturday and Sunday. 5m is almost a lock. My Sassy Hubby collapsed with all the new competition. Looking at a 1.3m finish. 5.5m for Cold War is now an unlikely maybe although it will need a big bump on Christmas to have any sort of chance. Back to 1942 got pounded by CZ12. Bunny Drop opened OK. Unlikely to get much more than $11,500 this weekend.

	Friday adm.	(so far)			December 21
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2	--	14,579	--	-1.8%
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	10,307	6,431	-37.6%	+42.8%
3	Wreck-It Ralph	--	3,213	--	+55.9%
4	CZ12	--	3,145	--	+42.1%
5	Jack Reacher	--	2,796	--	+49.4%
6	Life of Pi	2,390	1,900	-20.5%	+79.8%
7	My Sassy Hubby	1,712	787	-54.0%	+23.0%
8	Cold War	528	197	-62.7%	--
9	Skyfall	--	151	--	--
10	Penance Part 2	--	150	--	-37.2%

It could have been worse for Breaking Dawn 2. BD1 fell 6% on its opening Friday pre-sales but BD2 is already ahead with only a 2% drop. The Hobbit increased more than I expected. The rest of the top 5 did about what I expected. Life of Pi had a huge jump on Friday due to more favourable showtimes.

These two Hong Kong girls in the cinema when I saw Jack Reacher, they couldn't have been more than 13 years old, were constantly talking; "Tom Cruise is so cute" etc etc. I thought he was popular in Hong Kong too, but now I see the numbers I'm baffled. Will the good reviews help it at all anymore?

I've just seen the poll, and there's a must-see for me: Sex & Zen 2: Sexecution (Fall 2013). Talking of the poll, what's up with that? Kung Fu Hustle is in it! What were you aiming to do?

He is popular. I thought this movie would have done extremely well given MI4 but no; they all went to see Twilight instead.

Sex & Zen 2 is in 4D by the way. They're going to make another HK first.

Well, the poll options that I originally entered somehow multiplied and duplicated choices from the last poll. I don't know how it happened but the poll's been really screwy.

You saw The Hobbit? Where?

Oh yeah, I ended up seeing it at the MCL Telford. The showtimes worked out nicely, I had a 30-minute wait inbetween, and I'm not going to be in HK now until it's probably left theatres, so I decided to see it. Great film.

What do you mean "They're going to make another HK first"? Is Sex & Zen 2 not a Hong Kong film then? And 4D...hmmm. That'll surely limit the locations it plays at. But me and the wife like these sex movies, so we'll give it a go.

Just so you know, 2D prices don't have a lot of spread in price. There is usually only a $10 difference between most of the theaters because most of the bigger urban theaters will not show 2D at all. It's the 3D prices that you gotta watch out for. They differ a lot because of location.

Sex & Zen was billed as the first 3D erotica film by the media. So now they're going for round 2 in making the first 4D porno, aka another HK first.

Oh, sorry, I didn't catch on then when you said about "HK first". Now I do. I'm intrigued to see Sex & Zen 2. It's not often that someone gets to watch a porno at the cinema (albeit a softcore), so I'm jumping at the chance.

Drug War starring Louis Koo, I mentioned it before, do you know if it's coming out in China?
It's HK release is still 31st Dec, but the China date seems to have been removed. Can you shed any light on that? Perhaps it's been banned because of the drug content. I hope not. I was looking forward to that.

Bluebomb, do you know how much of CZ12 is in English?

We're seeing it late tonight, though in China, not HK. Next time I'll be in HK is for The Last Stand and [hopefully] Bullet to the Head.

I was dragged into CZ12 (and I kept snoring whole time) but there is about 20% of it in English. For rest of the parts I had to read subtitles (or I was sleeping). Though there is about 40% of the movie with action scenes without anything to talk so it is still fine.

Great. Thanks

There's no release date yet for HK.

	Friday				December 21
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	% chg (adm.)	QD % chg (adm.)
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	--	35,117	--	+9.0%
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	22,592	14,140	-37.4%	+31.8%
3	CZ12	--	11,740	--	+16.9%
4	Jack Reacher	--	11,045	--	+35.2%
5	Wreck-It Ralph	--	8,811	--	+45.6%
6	Life of Pi	7,328	5,138	-29.9%	+45.9%
7	My Sassy Hubby	8,948	3,520	-60.7%	+7.3%
8	Cold War	2,290	595	-74.0%	+24.2%
9	Back to 1942	--	476	--	--
10	Bunny Drop	--	464	--	-8.3%

Twilight increased?! If you're keeping score, BD1 didn't increase on its 2nd day. OK hold for The Hobbit. CZ12 is having weaker holds because of rancid WOM. Jack Reacher saw a good bump from Thursday. Very good for Wreck-It Ralph. Strong for Life of Pi. My Sassy Hubby continues to drop like a hot potato. Horrible for Cold War. Yikes for Back to 1942. Bunny Drop hopped down 8% on Friday. Not great news.

I guess there is still a slight chance for BD2 to pull its first #1 opening in HK then?

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			December 22
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	5,282	17,618	+233.5%	+20.8%
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	16,202	10,326	-36.3%	+60.6%
3	Les Misérables	--	6,815	--	--
4	Wreck-It Ralph	1,583	5,795	+266.1%	+80.4%
5	CZ12	--	4,315	--	+37.2%
6	Jack Reacher	--	4,045	--	+44.7%
7	Life of Pi	4,341	2,842	-34.5%	+49.6%
8	My Sassy Hubby	2,310	798	-65.5%	+1.4%
9	Cold War	--	334	--	+69.5%
10	Bunny Drop	--	250	--	--

BD2 will have a slight increase today but Hobbit will win. Les Mis opened well.

	Saturday				December 22
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	6,292	38,914	+518.5%	+10.8%
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	34,430	19,775	-42.6%	+39.9%
3	CZ12	--	15,762	--	+34.3%
4	Wreck-It Ralph	4,235	13,737	+224.4%	+55.9%
5	Jack Reacher	--	13,136	--	+18.9%
6	Les Misérables	--	12,301	--	--
7	Life of Pi	11,919	5,729	-51.9%	+11.5%
8	My Sassy Hubby	11,604	3,346	-71.2%	-4.9%
9	Cold War	--	793	--	+33.3%
10	Bunny Drop	--	695	--	+49.8%

Twilight is driving me nuts. Look below.

	Daily admissions (OW)
	Sneaks	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Total
Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	6292	32222	35117	38914	?	112545
Twilight: Breaking Dawn 1		34290	32989	51869	42343	161491
Gap	6292	4224	6352	-6603	-48946

BD2 will most likely start with less admissions than BD1 yet will have a much bigger gross than it? Are admissions being under-reported again? I don't understand at all.

The Hobbit didn't increase by much but almost every film had a tough time increasing today. CZ12 is doing surprisingly well. I don't know where this 2nd wind is coming from but that is a weird turnaround from Friday. Great for Wreck-It Ralph. Jack Reacher didn't gain much and it lost ground on CZ12. Les Mis had an excellent start. That number translates to about $100,000 for its unofficial opening day. It's getting rave reviews and it sits at a pristine 100% from HK moviegoers. I think 2m will be achieved. Life of Pi had a great hold considering the screen/showtime loss and 5m is now assured. My Sassy Hubby was the only film to decline from Friday. Yikes. Will Cold War make it to 5.5m? Still a maybe. It'll all depend on EDKO. They could cut it completely or be extra generous and leave it with one or 2 showtimes so that it'll crawl to 5.5m. Bunny Drop had the 2nd biggest rise but that looks to be a correction for Friday's loss.

	Weekend Projections			December 20
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	$920,000	+1672.7%	$975,000
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	$805,000	-46.0%	$2,855,000
3	Wreck-It Ralph	$470,000	+301.3%	$625,000
4	CZ12	$350,000		$350,000
5	Jack Reacher	$340,000		$340,000

Depending on how Sunday goes, weekend estimates could see major revisions. BD2 will hit #1 but it will just barely eke past BD1's OW gross. 1m could still happen but it needs to increase on Sunday. The Hobbit majorly disappointed this week. It'll likely make 6m and then leave theaters which is about half of what I was expecting. Wreck-It Ralph did great. It will nearly double Rise of the Guardians' total on opening weekend. CZ12 did surprisingly OK. It will triple 1911's opening weekend. Jack Reacher was unreachable this weekend. A yucky start. Even though its opening weekend is terrible, 100% of users have given this the thumbs up so we could see some great legs develop.

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			December 23
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	--	16,316	--	-7.4%
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	16,525	11,304	-31.6%	+9.5%
3	Wreck-It Ralph	2,473	8,832	+257.1%	+52.4%
4	Les Misérables	--	7,046	--	+3.4%
5	CZ12	--	6,294	--	+45.9%
6	Jack Reacher	--	5,261	--	+30.1%
7	Life of Pi	5,382	3,660	-32.0%	+28.8%
8	My Sassy Hubby	2,828	1,184	-58.1%	+48.4%
9	Cold War	--	553	--	+65.6%
10	Bunny Drop	--	292	--	+16.8%

Wow for Twilight. After the pretty good Friday and OK Saturday, Sunday is looking bad. Down 7% from Saturday pre-sales. Eek. Not a great increase for The Hobbit. #1 is gone. Wreck-It Ralph has impressed the entire weekend. It's the only film in the top 8 to see a bump over 50%. Les Mis did not see a huge bump because it's the 2nd day of sneaks. CZ12 must have Mainlander effect going on. These weekend increases seem to be more Mainlander-driven due to its extremely weak Friday increase. Jack Reacher is doing alright although it should be behind CZ12 this weekend. Life of Pi is holding on even with huge screen loss. That is slightly better for My Sassy Hubby but weekend has been a total disaster. Cold War is trying to climb back and at least salvage a 5.5m total. Seeing it have the biggest increase of the top 10 could mean just that. Not great for Bunny Drop.

	Sunday				December 23
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	--	35,164	--	-9.6%
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	32,628	19,895	-39.0%	+0.6%
3	CZ12	--	18,404	--	+16.8%
4	Wreck-It Ralph	6,578	17,817	+170.9%	+29.7%
5	Jack Reacher	--	14,401	--	+9.6%
6	Les Misérables	--	12,995	--	+5.6%
7	Life of Pi	12,277	6,130	-50.1%	+7.0%
8	My Sassy Hubby	11,903	3,458	-70.9%	+3.3%
9	Cold War	2,270	1,090	-52.0%	+37.5%
10	Bunny Drop	--	619	--	-10.9%

Twilight fell 10% on Sunday, one of the worst daily holds I've ever seen for the franchise. Hobbit limping up only 1% on Sunday is a disaster. I thought it would bump up 10-20%. Hobbit has been having terrible walk-ups the last 2 days, not even reaching a 2x multiplier on either Saturday or Sunday. CZ12 had another solid increase although WOM should start to affect it really soon. Wreck-It Ralph remains the standout film of any wide release. It's the only film in the top 10 that increased at least 30% each day this weekend. WOM is exceptional and reviews are better than Ice Age 4 or Madagascar 3. It is looking at a 1m week (not including sneaks). Good for Jack Reacher. While CZ12 may have exploded the last 2 days, I fully expect Jack Reacher to play through the holidays and into the new year. Reviews are stellar and it's the only film to have a 100% approval rating from users. Les Misérables inched up 6% but that is a deceiving increase. Saturday was its first day of public previews so naturally, its "opening day" would be slightly inflated. Les Mis will do well through the holidays. Not only is this musical perfect for a cold winter day but it's also received numerous accolades and public adoration up till this point. The musical only has itself in the marketplace and the combined starpower in the movie will draw people in. I still see a 2m gross in the future. Life of Pi did very well to come back from its showtime loss. 5m will happen on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. My Sassy Hubby struggled the entire weekend. It is likely gone from theaters next weekend. Cold War is coming back with a vengeance. 5.5m will probably happen. Bunny Drop had another bad hold.

	Weekend adm.			Dec 20-23
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	6,292	141,417	+2147.6%
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	108,090	64,538	-40.3%
3	CZ12	--	55,949	--
4	Jack Reacher	--	46,749	--
5	Wreck-It Ralph	10,813	46,415	+329.3%
6	Les Misérables	--	25,296	--
7	Life of Pi	36,666	20,518	-44.0%
8	My Sassy Hubby	40,119	13,604	-66.1%
9	Cold War	--	2,957	--
10	Bunny Drop	--	2,121	--

	Daily admissions (OW)
	Sneaks	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Total
Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	6292	32222	35117	38914	35164	147709
Twilight: Breaking Dawn 1		34290	32989	51869	42343	161491
Gap	6292	4224	6352	-6603	-13782

	Weekend Estimates			December 20
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	$915,000	+1663.6%	$970,000
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	$795,000	-46.6%	$2,845,000
3	Wreck-It Ralph	$485,000	+310.9%	$640,000
4	CZ12	$360,000		$360,000
5	Jack Reacher	$340,000		$340,000

Nothing much to say except BD2 is #1, albeit not because of its own extraordinary business.

Christmas Eve, Christmas and [Boxing Day] pre-sales

Les Mis is doing very well. Showings are about 75% almost everywhere. Breaking Dawn 2 is slowly declining. Christmas could even see another decline in admissions like BD1. The Hobbit is seeing high pre-sales but walk-ins remains a huge problem. Wreck-It Ralph is doing wonderfully. It has even done better than Breaking Dawn 2 and The Hobbit in a couple of places.

All of the major releases are finding it difficult to rise on Christmas Eve. None of the top 6 have increased from their Sunday admissions yet.

The only 2 in the top 10 that have done the job so far are Life of Pi and Bunny Drop.