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 July 30-August 1 Predictions 
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Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
soagg wrote:
Expandables need to do better with tracking, that number is a bit disappointing still it has some more time to grow.

RS didnt track the number of husbands and boyfriends exiting EPL screenings to see Expendables to wash the bad sting in their eyes


Mon Jul 26, 2010 3:02 pm
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Indiana Jones IV

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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
MTC:

DINNER FOR SCHMUCKS 22 million
CHARLIE ST. CLOUD 15 million
CATS & DOGS 14 million

About as expected, everyone?

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Mon Jul 26, 2010 3:11 pm
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Sbil

Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
JMorphin wrote:
MTC:

DINNER FOR SCHMUCKS 22 million
CHARLIE ST. CLOUD 15 million
CATS & DOGS 14 million

About as expected, everyone?


Sounds exactly right for Schmucks, although I expected a bit higher (near $20M) for Charlie St. Cloud and Cats & Dogs. Still think they have the potential for high teens.


Mon Jul 26, 2010 3:14 pm
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Deshi Basara
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
JMorphin wrote:
MTC:

DINNER FOR SCHMUCKS 22 million
CHARLIE ST. CLOUD 15 million
CATS & DOGS 14 million

About as expected, everyone?


Thanks, yeah sounds about right to me. That is probably an epically bad sign for Cats 2 vs. RS, and I think the rule could easily prove true. (Similar situation to Marmaduke, though MTC was a tiny bit lower than actual.)

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Last edited by Proud Ryu on Mon Jul 26, 2010 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Jul 26, 2010 3:16 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
The rule should be true for Schmucks too.

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Mon Jul 26, 2010 3:20 pm
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
Cats & Dogs 2 looks to have a terrible PTA relative to its theater count.

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Mon Jul 26, 2010 3:23 pm
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You are waiting for a train

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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
MTC is half of RS for Cats and Dogs is an ouch, but I still see it doing something like Marmaduke's OW adjusted for 3D.

I think Schmucks could be a mini-breakout, because there hasn't been a comedy in a while (which explains GU's legs) and the stars are pretty solid draws. I can't see it holding well against The Other Guys, though.

Looks like Charlie probably won't break out.


Mon Jul 26, 2010 3:40 pm
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College Boy Z

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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
High $20m RS vs. $14m MTC for Cats & Dogs. Pretty much what I expected, I really don't see $15m+ for it at all.

That's good for Dinner for Schmucks, though.


Mon Jul 26, 2010 3:41 pm
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
Cats & Dogs 2 should've been released in the fall of 2002, where there was no big kids other than Spy Kids 2/Veggietales. Had that happened, it would've certainly opened in the high 20s.
Had CD2 been released on President's Day Weekend of 2004, it would've done better because in that weekend, the only competition was Miracle and Catch that Kid flopped.


Mon Jul 26, 2010 3:44 pm
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
Does anyone remember how MTC fared with G-Force's tracking?

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Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:00 pm
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
MTC: 30 RS: High 20s.


Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:04 pm
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
bl1222 wrote:
MTC: 30 RS: High 20s.


Thanks. Maybe justice will actually be served to this terrible film. Too bad my nieces want to see it...uggh.

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Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:13 pm
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
If CD2 flops, then DM should have a good hold.


Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:14 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
1. INCEPTION - 31.6 MILLION (-26%)
2. CATS & DOGS 2 - 21.9 MILLION (New)
3. DINNER FOR SCHMUCKS - 21.5 MILLION (New)
4. SALT - 20.5 MILLION (-43%)
5. CHARLIE ST. CLOUD - 18.3 MILLION (New)
6. DESPICABLE ME - 14.9 MILLION (-37%)
7. TOY STORY 3 - 6.1 MILLION (-32%)
8. SORCERER'S APPRENTICE - 6 MILLION (-38%)
9. GROWN UPS - 5 MILLION (-33%)
10. RAMONA & BEEZUS - 4.7 MILLION (-40%)


Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:20 pm
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
Sorry, MTC's number is half of RS's number for CD2, that's not a good sign. I rarely see movies that have MTC's number half of RS's that break out.


Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:21 pm
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
plus look at twitter box office magazine.


Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:23 pm
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
bl1222 wrote:
Sorry, MTC's number is half of RS's number for CD2, that's not a good sign. I rarely see movies that have MTC's number half of RS's that break out.


BOM Polls are all over the map for kid's films, but C&D's is about identical to 2006's Shaggy Dog, which opened to $19.8m adjusted in what will likely be 300 fewer theaters. With 3D help, it's possible C&D won't be a complete bomb.

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Mon Jul 26, 2010 4:34 pm
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ef star star kay
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
Eat and pray should have been released on July 16, dont u think

it could have been this year's Proposal, Devil Wears Prada, Mama Mia

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Mon Jul 26, 2010 6:32 pm
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
JURiNG wrote:
Eat and pray should have been released on July 16, dont u think

it could have been this year's Proposal, Devil Wears Prada, Mama Mia


It would've had to face competition with Salt (female audience) and Twilight with females was still popular in its 1st-3rd weekend. I think a better release date would've been counterprogramming Toy Story 3. Almost every movie that's counterprogrammed with Pixar has worked successfully except Drag me to H*** and 2004's Alfie.


Mon Jul 26, 2010 7:24 pm
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Orphan

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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
Yeah, releasing opposite TS3 would probably have worked.


Mon Jul 26, 2010 7:26 pm
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
I think Sony chose August 13th because it worked for Julie & Julia last year. Anyways, I believe that EPL would've worked better releasing against IM2 with Letters to Juliet releasing against TS3. As for Charlie St. Cloud, the release date is just fine along with DFS, but DreamWorks should've done sneak previews to spread WOM.


Mon Jul 26, 2010 7:33 pm
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
bl1222 wrote:
I think Sony chose August 13th because it worked for Julie & Julia last year. Anyways, I believe that EPL would've worked better releasing against IM2 with Letters to Juliet releasing against TS3. As for Charlie St. Cloud, the release date is just fine along with DFS, but DreamWorks should've done sneak previews to spread WOM.


Are you saying Charlie St. Cloud should have had sneak previews? If so, the studio is Universal, not Dreamworks. Schmucks is Dreamworks and Paramount.


Mon Jul 26, 2010 7:49 pm
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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
I said DFS. Sorry for the confusion. I do believe that sneak previews would've worked for it.


Mon Jul 26, 2010 7:56 pm
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
Some MTC/RS comparisons to mull over:

CATS & DOGS: THE REVENGE OF KITTY GALORE (MTC: 14; RS: High 20's)

Comparisons
Marmaduke
MTC: 10
RS: Mid 20's
Actual: 11.6

Furry Vengeance
MTC: 5
RS: Almost high single digits
Actual: 6.6

G-Force
MTC: 30
RS: High 20's
Actual: 31.7

Beverly Hills Chihuhua
MTC: 25
RS: Low 20's
Actual: 29.3

Underdog
MTC: 9
RS: 12
Actual: 11.6

Alvin and the Chipmunks
MTC: 21
RS: 15
Actual: 44.3

Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeaquel
MTC: 48 (5 day)
RS: Low 40's (5 day)
Actual: 75.6 (5-day)

Bolt
MTC: 35
RS: 45
Actual: 26.2

Aliens in the Attic
MTC: 9
RS: Almost Teens
Actual: 8


CHARLIE ST. CLOUD (MTC: 15; RS: low teens)

Comparisons
Dear John
MTC: 24
RS: High Teens
Actual: 30.5

17 Again
MTC: 24
RS: Low 20's
Actual: 23.7

Hairspray
MTC: 23
RS: 14
Actual: 27.5

Letters to Juliet
MTC: 17
RS: Almost High Teens
Actual: 13.5

The Last Song
MTC: 22 (5-day)
RS: Mid teens (5 day)
Actual: 25.4 (5-day)

Remember Me
MTC: 7
RS: Mid Single Digits
Actual: 8.1

The Time Traveler's Wife
MTC: 30
RS: Mid Teens
Actual: 18.6

Nights in Rodanthe
MTC: 11
RS: Low Teens
Actual: 13.4

The Lake House
MTC: 17
RS: 15
Actual: 13.6

My Sister's Keeper
MTC: 11
RS: Low double digits
Actual: 12.4


DINNER FOR SCHMUCKS (MTC: 22, RS: Mid Teens)

Comparisons
The Hangover
MTC: 27
RS: low 20's
Actual: 45

I Love You, Man
MTC: 21
RS: low 20's
Actual: 17.8

Role Models
MTC: 10
RS: 8
Actual: 19.2

Step Brothers
MTC: 34
RS: High 20's
Actual: 30.9

Year One
MTC: 21
RS: Between 16-19
Actual: 19.6

You, Me & Dupree
MTC: 16
RS: 26
Actual: 21.5

Date Night
MTC: 30
RS: 36
Actual: 25.2

Grown Ups
MTC: 39
RS: Almost Mid 30's
Actual: 40.5


Last edited by TrekFan1 on Wed Jul 28, 2010 10:51 pm, edited 4 times in total.



Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:00 am
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College Boy Z

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Post Re: July 30-August 1 Predictions
Wow, Role Models was tracking really badly.


Tue Jul 27, 2010 1:39 am
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