Biggestgeekever wrote:
Magnus Lightyear wrote:
Biggestgeekever wrote:
In. TS3: 1.2 Billion HP7 I: 1.1 Billion
More like 1.2 billion for HP and 1.1 billion for TS3.
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| Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=57833 |
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| Author: | 2001 [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
A. Sequels to greatly received animated films explode overseas and Up proved last year that Pixar + 3D can be huge. Up made 435m+ and I think TS3 can make 40% more. B. HP7 will be a monster overseas but it will NOT increase in admissions domestically, so no ROTS numbers. C. Toy Story 3 will simply be awesome. Toy Story 3 - 1100m WW (500m/600m) Harry Potter 7 Pt.I - 1090m WW (340m/750m) Who's in? Members: 1. 2001 2. Bluebomb 3. Biggestgeekever 4. Keyser Söze |
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| Author: | Bluebomb [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
I'm in. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 11:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
Even if TS3 explodes overseas there is no chance that it will beat HP7. HP has a huge rush factor and people will willfully throw to see this in 3D specially on the opening weekend and the coming 2 weeks. Thus I am adding a surcharge of about 20% The least OS that HP has done is 546m adding another 20% to this makes it 655m. The last movie did 632 that makes 20% to be 758.4 The best HP movie has made 657 that equals 788m. TS3 is over-predicted at 500m domestically and there is also a chance that TS3 does not do that well overseas even with Pixar brand attached to it. I see it somewhere at 500m OS at this time. TS3 - 420/490 - 910m (somewhere between 13-20 in WW total) HP7 - 350/750m - 1.1B (somewhere between 2-6 in WW total) OUT |
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| Author: | BJ [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 1:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
potter will make 1b internationally. |
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| Author: | Biggestgeekever [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 1:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
In. TS3: 1.2 Billion HP7 I: 1.1 Billion |
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| Author: | Biggestgeekever [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 1:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
Magnus Lightyear wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: In. TS3: 1.2 Billion HP7 I: 1.1 Billion More like 1.2 billion for HP and 1.1 billion for TS3. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 1:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
Biggestgeekever wrote: Magnus Lightyear wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: In. TS3: 1.2 Billion HP7 I: 1.1 Billion More like 1.2 billion for HP and 1.1 billion for TS3.
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| Author: | SolC9 [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 1:56 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
Out. Potter is just too big overseas. Throw in 3D and the winter release, and I just don't see it happening. That said, both should definitely top 1B. |
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| Author: | 2001 [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 2:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
3D won't give HP7 much of a boost unlike Avatar, Alice, and possibly TS3. Domestically, it will likely lose half of its 3D screens by its second weekend when Tangled comes out, then probably lose 90% of those by its third when Narnia comes out, then you have Tron/Yogi Brear in its fourth and so on. Films like Avatar and Alice didn't have to face ANY 3D competition for many weeks. And the Potter franchise except for HP4 have been consistently overpredicted. I, for one thought HP6 will break 700m+ overseas last year while some others said it will break 1B WW. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 2:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
2001 wrote: 3D won't give HP7 much of a boost unlike Avatar, Alice, and possibly TS3. Domestically, it will likely lose half of its 3D screens by its second weekend when Tangled comes out, then probably lose 90% of those by its third when Narnia comes out, then you have Tron/Yogi Brear in its fourth and so on. Films like Avatar and Alice didn't have to face ANY 3D competition for many weeks. And the Potter franchise except for HP4 have been consistently overpredicted. I, for one thought HP6 will break 700m+ overseas last year while some others said it will break 1B WW. I agree the boost will not be as good as Avatar but then HP movies are known for a huge opening and an OK 2nd week. 3D will definitely help in 2 weeks where it makes most of its money. |
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| Author: | 2001 [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 2:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
But it would make its legs even worse than normal. It probably takes away 5-10m of its gross. |
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| Author: | _axiom [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 3:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
2001 wrote: But it would make its legs even worse than normal. It probably takes away 5-10m of its gross. HP series don't have bad legs. They have an awful second weekend drop usually, but after that drops are under 50% and it gets a lot of under 40% drops too. For a franchise like that it's only natural to be very frontloaded in its first week. Especially when we're six movies in. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 5:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
Nonono |
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| Author: | Inny Binny [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 8:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
Nah. Both over $1b...well, maybe Toy Story 3 won't if the Euro keeps on screwing itself. But if I remember correctly I think I said something like $1.1b for TS3 and $1.25b for DH1. Numbers won't go that high now, unless the Euro fixes itself before DH1 releases. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
TS3 has to contend with Shrek in many territories. It wont be big enough to beat Potter. Would be good if it did offcourse. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 9:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
TS3 will not top 400m domestic so noooooooo to this club. |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Thu Jun 17, 2010 11:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
No. HP7pt1 - 390/850 (and no, that's not an increase in admissions domestically, and yes, 3D helps that much) TS3 - 480/570 |
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| Author: | nghtvsn [ Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
Your predictions have minimal separation. I think HP7 will easily beat TS3. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Fri Jun 18, 2010 4:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
I really don't see Toy Story 3 making more than $550-600 million OS. And Potter will make $350+ million domestically. |
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| Author: | 2001 [ Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
be.redy wrote: HP series don't have bad legs. They have an awful second weekend drop usually, but after that drops are under 50% and it gets a lot of under 40% drops too. For a franchise like that it's only natural to be very frontloaded in its first week. Especially when we're six movies in. HP6 doing a 1.9 5-day/total multiplier and a 62% second weekend drop coming off a Wednesday opening is natural but it's not good legs. While I'm confident with a huge OW -at least 145m+, I also believe it will have pretty much nothing left in the tank after its third weekend due to stronger than usual competition with 3D films and natural frontloadedness. Its multiplier will end up being somewhat comparable to New Moon. 65%+ second weekend drop, then 55%+ drop in its third when Narnia comes out. |
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| Author: | 2001 [ Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
Dr. Lecter wrote: And Potter will make $350+ million domestically. It will likely end up with a 2.1-2.2 multiplier, so even with a 165m+ OW, 350m is still not guaranteed. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
IN |
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| Author: | 2001 [ Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
Excellent reviews don't always mean excellent WoM, but 100% on RT at 120+ reviews for Toy Story 3 makes me think it's going to be as beloved generally as the previous films and gives me more confidence in this club. 
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| Author: | Bluebomb [ Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
I personally am not getting the 350+ predicts. Harry Potter has been consistent in gross since the beginning so I don't see how the added gross from 3D will give it that much of a boost. If people weren't clamoring to see the Harry Potter series in theaters before, they won't start now. For the others that paid before, some might not even bother to watch HP7 in 3D and will wait for video, albeit these are a minuscule few. At most, it will clear 350 but just barely. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Fri Jun 18, 2010 1:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Toy Story 3 will beat HP7 Pt.I WW Club |
I think Potter with 3d will have the same effect as ice age. It will help it stay close to HP6 gross. |
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