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 Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread 
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Extraordinary
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Post Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Gran Turismo - 1.4m previews


Fri Aug 25, 2023 12:15 pm
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Might do low teens with that.

Pretty meh considering how much trailers I saw for it


Fri Aug 25, 2023 12:17 pm
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Too many early shows whose BO will be added to friday overall. it will drop quite a bit on saturday but benefit from NCD. I am thinking mid to high teens. Hold overs minus Blue beetle should be interesting to see due to NCD for sure.

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Fri Aug 25, 2023 12:57 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
$3M from 2 weeks of previews. $1.4M from Thursday previews. So GT can make nothing today and already be at $4.4M Friday.

I think they forgot some Puerto Rico box office grosses for Endgame screenings from the last 2 years so that extra $125M gets it past Avatar! :P

Or how about we do 50 weeks of preview screenings for the Twisters sequel coming out next July. Then it will have one of the biggest OWs of all time! :D


Fri Aug 25, 2023 1:17 pm
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
O wrote:
$3M from 2 weeks of previews. $1.4M from Thursday previews. So GT can make nothing today and already be at $4.4M Friday.

I think they forgot some Puerto Rico box office grosses for Endgame screenings from the last 2 years so that extra $125M gets it past Avatar! :P

Or how about we do 50 weeks of preview screenings for the Twisters sequel coming out next July. Then it will have one of the biggest OWs of all time! :D
You jest, but this is probably the way some movie is gonna top Endgame's opening. :nerd:


Fri Aug 25, 2023 1:32 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
There's a lot of new box office models that could possibly happen.

Theoretically if Elon wants a movie about him to become the highest grossing movie of all time domestic there's a business model to do that too.

It's reminding me a bit of the music industry. Records keep being made on singles but it's being driven by streaming and "album equivalents." Album sales have plunged so much but I don't think anyone can argue that it seems so much easier to break Billboard 100 singles records now. Make a remix with someone or discounted promo rate and it seems like they have a playbook to get a song #1.


Fri Aug 25, 2023 1:42 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Will be interesting to see how big National Cinema Day is. Guessing it'll help Blue Beatle from dropping over 60% this weekend.

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office- ... 2022/09/03
Lol at how small the grosses were last year.


Fri Aug 25, 2023 4:53 pm
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Quote:
Gran Turismo at 3,856 theaters is seeing $8M for Friday which includes in total $5.3M in previews from not just Thursday, but ten days of previews.


:funny: :funny:

https://deadline.com/2023/08/box-office ... 235528051/

Barbie - 4m fri/15.8m weekend
GT - 8m/15m :-)
Blue beetle - 3/10.5
Oppy - 2.2/7.8
TMNT2 - 1.5/5.9
Retribution - 1/3

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Fri Aug 25, 2023 6:50 pm
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Not a 2.7m Friday... lolol


Fri Aug 25, 2023 6:58 pm
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
So only 33.75% of GT's Friday gross will actually have come from Friday. :funny:

So DHD mentioned pre-sales were $5.3M over 10 days.

Let's break that down further.

Aug. 11 - 24th: $3.9M previews or $390K / day for whatever 10 days had previews
August 24: $1.4M previews
August 25: $2.7M daily gross

It's Sat # is going to be so bad. I can't wait. :lol:

In other news, I heard that presales for Sunday are nearly 700% higher than Saturday. All expectations are that the National Cinema Day event will be much, much bigger than last year. It will be especially dramatic for family films and I expect Barbie and Oppenheimer.

Barbie's Friday from DHD is $4M but I honestly wouldn't be shocked by a $10M Sunday.


Last edited by O on Fri Aug 25, 2023 9:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Aug 25, 2023 8:59 pm
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Blue Beetle I think should have a strong Sunday


Fri Aug 25, 2023 9:07 pm
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Blue Beetle Sunday has actually outselling Barbie Sunday. Its going to have a big increase and then collapse hard on Monday :-)

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Fri Aug 25, 2023 9:24 pm
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
I went through my local theaters and sellouts across the board for B+O+BB. Barbie in particular looked sold out or 90%+ for most showings before 10 pm on Sunday.

If I could predict which movies will have the biggest business / increases, I'd rank them like this:

Massive grosses:
Barbie
Blue Beetle
Oppenheimer

Big grosses:
Gran Turismo

Respectable spikes:
TMNT
MI7

Fairly full:
Sound of Freedom
Talk To Me

Solid amount of interest:
Elemental
Meg 2
Demeter

Others with a bit of interest:
Super Mario
Mermaid

Lots of empty seats:
Strays
Golda

I'll throw a random guess (not scientific or based on any real empirical data) and say Barbie will do $12M on Sunday, Oppenheimer $8M and Blue Beetle $10M. Maybe $4M for TMNT and $3M for MI7. Was surprised how strong the showings were for MI but could be people catching up with it. I would have expected Haunted Mansion to do well as a family film but it seems to be leaving virtually every theater in my area so could be plunging in theater count.

Not a scientific poll at all but feel like Sunday may almost play out like Labor Day weekend of end of summer catch ups but feels like its on steroids compared to last year that it could be one of the biggest box office days of the summer.


Sat Aug 26, 2023 1:13 am
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
I do hope GT can land a solid opening this weekend. Cinema day will help it. Its a good film and deserves to do well.

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Sat Aug 26, 2023 8:35 am
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
O wrote:
Barbie's Friday from DHD is $4M but I honestly wouldn't be shocked by a $10M Sunday.


Is $10M single day gross mathetically possible with $4 tickets across the board? I know last National Cinema Day the market was much quieter than it is ATM, but the highest PTA was Maverick with $841. Increase by 33% that gets it to $1,119, which with Barbie's current theater count would give it a $4.2M day. I dunno, I'll be (pleasantly) surprised if anything can top $5M on Sunday (although I think most of the 2,800+ theater count movies can get into the $3.5-4.5M range).


Sat Aug 26, 2023 9:39 am
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Barbie is in its 6th weekend. Maverick was 3 months in its run. I think potential for Barbie is way higher.

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Sat Aug 26, 2023 10:28 am
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Jonathan wrote:
O wrote:
Barbie's Friday from DHD is $4M but I honestly wouldn't be shocked by a $10M Sunday.


Is $10M single day gross mathetically possible with $4 tickets across the board? I know last National Cinema Day the market was much quieter than it is ATM, but the highest PTA was Maverick with $841. Increase by 33% that gets it to $1,119, which with Barbie's current theater count would give it a $4.2M day. I dunno, I'll be (pleasantly) surprised if anything can top $5M on Sunday (although I think most of the 2,800+ theater count movies can get into the $3.5-4.5M range).

I don't think anything has enough seats to do 10M on discounted tickets this sunday.


Sat Aug 26, 2023 11:29 am
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
That would be sad if TLM grosses like $299.3 or something in the end even with this expansion lol ugh


Sat Aug 26, 2023 11:52 am
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Last year National Cinema Day saw the highest attendance of the year and led to $24M in grosses.

This year awareness is significantly higher, films are making larger grosses, 1 week earlier than Labor Day, $1 more for tickets (33%+ prices), and worse economy. Even if we see the exact same admissions as last year the box office grosses will be at $32M.

Below are the top 5 grosses from last year if they had $4 ticket prices instead of $3. In brackets is the previous weekend gross (3day) followed by the ratio of $4 ticket Sunday / previous 3day weekend.

1 Top Gun: Maverick $3.49M ($4.72M) = 0.739X
2 DC League of Super-Pets $3.39M ($4.14M) = 0.819X
3 Bullet Train $3.22M ($5.61M) = 0.574X
4 Spider-Man: No Way Home $2.96M (Re-release)
5 The Invitation $2.75M ($6.81M) = 0.404X

Average daily gross ratio for National Cinema Day for 4 movies above is 0.634X.

-Let's assume newer releases like The Invitation mirror Beetle's ratio closer so we'll give it a 0.404X.
-Barbie has family appeal and is the iconic movie of the summer so let's give it TGM's ratio (0.739X) though it could even approach Superpets.
-Oppenheimer we'll give TGM ratio as well (0.739X).
-Turtles is a recent movie but it has family appeal so let's give it Superpets (0.819X)
-Strays feels like the movie no one cares about that just recently opened so lets give it Beast's ratio (0.375X)

There aren't enough data points and family movies will spike more but hypothetically, if these ratios somehow appear close to last year, here's what those 5 movies on Sunday would look like:

-Barbie $15.54M
-Blue Beetle $10.11M
-Oppenheimer $7.92M
-Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem $6.99M
-Strays $3.09M

There is not much data to go from and the whole shift to Sunday and weekend before Labor Day could completely do things differently this year but at least that's my best attempt at an extrapolation. Given Barbie made $4M Friday these look highly unlikely to follow this but it's an attempt to guess regardless.


Sat Aug 26, 2023 12:33 pm
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
I looked at about 427 theaters and 2550 shows and it has about 422K seats. Overall I expecting 3m+ seats for Barbie tomorrow. If it can sell 2.5m of those tickets its going to hit 10m. Not outrageous for NCD :-)

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Sat Aug 26, 2023 1:09 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Weekend estimates below but these are probably going to be WAY off after National Cinema Day. Apparently WB is irate with Sony on GT's previews being included in the Friday # and other studios see Barbie as $2M less than this estimate according to DHD. Still these would be great #'s for B+O.

Also Oppenheimer passes $300M!!!

1 Gran Turismo $17,300,000
2 Barbie $17,100,000 -19% $594,801,000
3 Blue Beetle $12,765,000 -49% $46,309,000
4 Oppenheimer $9,000,000 -16% $300,024,000
5 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles $6,100,000 -29% $98,143,000
6 Meg 2: The Trench $5,100,000 -25% $74,433,000
7 Strays $4,650,000 -44% $16,126,000

The Hill $2,515,000
Haunted Mansion $2,100,000 -31% $62,256,861
Talk To Me $2,088,501 -33% $41,066,389
Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part One $2,075,000 -24% $168,063,000
Sound of Freedom $2,001,292 -23% $181,037,214
Golda Bleecker Street $1,723,337
Jurassic Park $1,700,000 $414,134,000


Here are the Sunday daily estimates for NCD. These feel like they could all be very, very off:

1 Barbie $7,750,000 +45%
2 Blue Beetle $6,000,000 +45%
3 Gran Turismo $4,450,000 +6%
4 Oppenheimer $3,450,000 +6%
5 Meg 2: The Trench $2,280,000 +30%
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles $2,160,000 -10%
Strays $1,830,000 +10%
Sound of Freedom $1,020,968 +73%

There's no way I see NCD's Oppenheimer gross only 50% higher than The Meg for instance. There's going to be so many people watching it today. I also still have hope that Barbie can pull a $10.5M+ Sunday to get a 6th weekend over $20M.


Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:24 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Also having TMNT drop is weird. Keen to see the real results!


Sun Aug 27, 2023 12:39 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Can we have an applause for Gran Turismo's Sat # as well? :funny:

Gran Turismo $4,200,000 -51% $12,700,000

After a "Friday" of $8,650,000, and $5.3M in non-Friday previews, that means 41.7% of GT's Friday/Saturday gross this weekend will not have come from this weekend. :funny:

NCD is saving it but still will be at 30.64% of its weekend gross not coming from this weekend. :hahaha:


Sun Aug 27, 2023 1:16 pm
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
The-numbers could put a stop to this if they wanted. They're the only box office site that anybody trusts anymore.


Sun Aug 27, 2023 1:25 pm
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Post Re: Gran Turismo (and National Cinema Day) weekend thread
Normally I'd be happy that Dead Reckoning - coming off a $2m weekend - is now going to reach $175m, but I feel Cinema Day inflated it a lot, and that next weekend is going to drop to something silly like $400k. Anyway, $170m is good enough considering it disappointed upon opening. I don't feel Part Two will be any higher. It's not like the first was a major cliffhanger that people are dying to see. Part One felt just like a standalone M:I episode, and Part Two feels like another. The only thing that links them - in my mind - is the fact they have the same titles.

I thought The Hill might do better considering its faith links. Was expecting more of a $2,500+ PTA.

Demeter is going to lose a ton of theatres next weekend. Hoping for 1,000+

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