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| Author: | O [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 6:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
Yes, this may sound silly, an action film with stars past their prime. But its opening to $50 m +! My gut says $60 m +, but I'm leaving this as a $50 m + club! Who's in? |
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| Author: | BJ [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 6:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
in |
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| Author: | BJ [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 6:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
Dr. Magnus wrote: Nope. But as usual, I like your optimism. WHAT! |
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| Author: | BK [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 6:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
This will have terrible legs so I'm in. I mean V-Day didn't even get a multiplier of 2. This is more akin to F13 the only thing is there's no date connotations. |
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| Author: | O [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 6:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
August this year looks quite light. August 2009 saw three $37 m + openers in a row. I think The Expendables could capitalize on that and become an event picture. |
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| Author: | Harry Warden [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 6:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
Isn't the early word that this film is horrid? |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 7:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
Harry Warden wrote: Isn't the early word that this film is horrid? No The newest trailer that premiered had a very positive resopnse. It has the Nostalgia factor big time. And I love the release date. Im thinking low 40s right now though. We'll see after the new trailer. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 8:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
Im in. With $50m it can still end up with around $95m if super front-loaded. It will be the event of August. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 8:22 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
I'm still waiting for the film's rating... |
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| Author: | Nazgul9 [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 8:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
No way. If Rambo 4 or Rocky couldn't do it, this won't either. Stallone is the only one with fame, the other actions "stars" in this never were big (Arnie's cameo notwithstanding). |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 8:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
Nazgul9 wrote: No way. If Rambo 4 or Rocky couldn't do it, this won't either. Stallone is the only one with fame, the other actions "stars" in this never were big (Arnie's cameo notwithstanding). Well, Bruce Willis also has a cameo. Jason Statham and Jet Li have some fans of their own. And it is more about the mixture than the parts. Think of Wild Hogs. Hardly anyone in that was a huge draw at the time of the release, but the combo worked. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 8:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
In
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| Author: | Thegun [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 8:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
Dr. Lecter wrote: Nazgul9 wrote: No way. If Rambo 4 or Rocky couldn't do it, this won't either. Stallone is the only one with fame, the other actions "stars" in this never were big (Arnie's cameo notwithstanding). Well, Bruce Willis also has a cameo. Jason Statham and Jet Li have some fans of their own. And it is more about the mixture than the parts. Think of Wild Hogs. Hardly anyone in that was a huge draw at the time of the release, but the combo worked. Mickey Rourke also has Iron Man 2 this year. Rocky was Stallone's first real theatrical film since 2001 and was around Christmas time. Rambo was an extremely violent film and opened very well and has a huge following. Stallone has slowly gained more and more newer fans as well as the older ones. If it was just him and a summer release, I'd say it would make 28 million just with Stallone. But sheer amount of names in this and if its marketed well gives this one of the biggest Under the Radar hits of the year. And I totally say screw that on Expendables being the first 50 million grosser not to hit 100 million. |
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| Author: | Nazgul9 [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 8:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
Is there a trailer out? All i've seen was some early promo real i think, looked like a DTV film. |
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| Author: | zingy [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 9:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
I was thinking $40m-ish, but $50m seems like a stretch. |
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| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Tue Mar 23, 2010 10:52 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
I'm not sure if a PG-13 rating would hurt or help in this case... |
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| Author: | Dil [ Wed Mar 24, 2010 12:56 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
I agree with Lecter. PG-13 or R people will still see this movie and even though you may not be able to tell theirs alot of hype behind it already. I think it will be the District 9 or Inglorious Basterds of 2010. It will be one of those genre breakout hits that no one sees coming. I see a very big opening similar to IB, maybe even a little higher and around 120M domestic. It should easily become one of Lionsgates biggest films since Farenheit 9/11. |
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| Author: | Tuukka [ Wed Mar 24, 2010 1:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
dp |
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| Author: | Tuukka [ Wed Mar 24, 2010 1:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
Rambo had a big established fanbase, good marketing and it came out after Stallone's big comeback movie, Rocky Balboa, which people generally really liked. And yet Rambo opened to only 18 million. I have a hard time believing that Expendables is almost three times more appealing to audiences than Rambo. Cameo roles have pretty much never helped a film's B.O performance, and Statham and Lee are very minor draws nowadays. But the biggest problem is that Expendables simply doesn't look that good. The first promotional trailer made it look like a generic, early 90's DTV flick. Which is not something modern audiences are likely to support that much. Rocky and Rambo both had an established brand name to build on, and huge amounts of nostalgia. People are nostalgic towards certain classic movies and classic characters, they are not nostalgic to generic, early 90's DTV action flicks. An opening around 15-20 million is much more realistic, unless the marketing really picks up in a big way. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Wed Mar 24, 2010 1:16 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
Tuukka wrote: Rambo had a big established fanbase, good marketing and it came out after Stallone's big comeback movie, Rocky Balboa, which people generally really liked. And yet Rambo opened to only 18 million. I have a hard time believing that Expendables is almost three times more appealing to audiences than Rambo. Cameo roles have pretty much never helped a film's B.O performance, and Statham and Lee are very minor draws nowadays. But the biggest problem is that Expendables simply doesn't look that good. The first promotional trailer made it look like a generic, early 90's DTV flick. Which is not something modern audiences are likely to support that much. Rocky and Rambo both had an established brand name to build on, and huge amounts of nostalgia. People are nostalgic towards certain classic movies and classic characters, they are not nostalgic to generic, early 90's DTV action flicks. An opening around 15-20 million is much more realistic, unless the marketing really picks up in a big way. Rambo III was considered terrible, and Stallone coming back to Rambo seemed even less a good idea than Rocky Balboa (Which was a family film around Christmas time) Rambo was the most violent film ever made (It's like the opening of Saving Private Ryan for the entire film but also has women and children being slaughtered, Hardly the kids and families that went to see Rocky Balboa (Yet it still opened higher)) If it was just a Stallone film I'd say 22 million. But with the cast and premise, its a wet dream to any guy over the age of 15. 30 million is the minimum. |
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| Author: | Dil [ Wed Mar 24, 2010 1:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
Exactlly ! Both Rambo and Rocky have completely different audiences and Rocky was successful because it was released at the right time. After seeing Rambo for the second time a couple of days ago I have to admit I'm still kinda suprised it did as well as it did. The movie is basically hardcore grindhouse snuff action from start to finish. Deffentially not the mainstream norm, but I also know alot of people that liked it, so Stallone did regain some credit for doing something right. I think the audience that wants to see TE will likely be the same one's who really dug Rambo and that's a good thing. Also it's already been confirmed that TE is not nearly as violent as Rambo which means it could gain alot more appeal than that core audience. |
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| Author: | Jack Sparrow [ Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
It think it has a chance though slightly less but I'm IN |
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| Author: | David [ Wed Mar 24, 2010 4:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
I don't see this opening anywhere near 50m. This is not going to open to more than Rambo made in its entire domestic run. Rambo opened to 18m. Statham and Li are relatively valuable co-stars, but not to the tune of 32m. There is also the "has-been" factor, which I feel could be detrimental. It's a bit of a joke, isn't it? Other people are so confident every male in America will have a hard-on for this, but I'm not. Plus, as Tuukka said, the film doesn't seem particularly good. The trailer/promo reel on YouTube is very generic. No great lines, no memorable action money shots. They're leaning entirely on the cast, and I am not convinced the cast (and related nostalgia) is enough for this to be an enormous hit. The cast doesn't seem well-utilized either. The very brief martial-arts moment with Li couldn't be any duller if it tried, for example. I just feel this going to be one of those movies the Internet loses it collective shit over, but doesn't pan out entirely at the box office. I see comfortable, solid numbers, but not blockbuster status. My current prediction: 25/58 I would go higher if the movie itself seemed less lousy. |
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| Author: | David [ Wed Mar 24, 2010 4:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
Thegun wrote: a wet dream to any guy over the age of 15. 15, eh? Might want to bump that number up. I don't think too many people born in 1995 have been waiting years and years for a Stallone/Lundgren team-up. I'll fix your quote: Quote: a wet dream to some guys over the age of 37. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Wed Mar 24, 2010 9:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: The Expendables $50 m + Opening Weekend Club |
I agree, but the 15-25 year old guys that like action films will go to a movie like this anyway. |
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