July is going to be a fantastic month for International BO with many of the big names opening throughout the month to avoid the World Cup in Jun/early-July. Toy Story 3 will likely beat Shrek 4 in UK.

Toy Story 3 is a valid contender for 50+ million pounds in UK.

it'll probably be between TS3 and HP7-I for the yearly win, i've got a feeling HP7-I might crack he 55m pounds mark and have 60m in its sights.

FRANCE Preview

Has been a very good hunting grown for animated features, and Pixar especially has performed quite well here.

Traditional animation still dominates the all-time admissions charts here with oldie classics such as The Jungle Book grossing 15 288 124 admissions. However, If you discount these classics, then The Liong King today still holds the record for animation post 1990 with 10 112 444 admissions. CGen animation has now reached a level of consistency reminscent of the golden area of animation between 1990 and 1999, we are seeing more movies consistently break the 5m admissions mark which is comparable to pics like Mulan (5 793 697), Pocahontas (5 639 591). At the upper end of the scale, franchise's like Ice Age and Shrek are rivaling 90s best such as Tarzan's (7 859 751) which is second only to The Lion King for the decade.

1 Le Monde de Nemo Etats-Unis / 2003 / Animation 3D 9 311 689
2 Ratatouille Etats-Unis / 2007 / Animation 3D 7 845 210
3 L'Age de glace 3 - Le Temps des dinosaures Etats-Unis / 2009 / Animation 3D 7 803 757
4 Shrek 2 Etats-Unis / 2004 / Animation 3D 7 185 626
5 L'Age de glace 2 Etats-Unis / 2006 / Animation 3D 6 642 528
6 Arthur et les Minimoys France / 2006 / Animation 3D 6 396 989
7 Shrek Le Troisième Etats-Unis / 2007 / Animation 3D 5 549 908
8 Les Indestructibles Etats-Unis / 2004 / Animation 3D 5 490 005
9 Madagascar 2 : la grande évasion Etats-Unis / 2008 / Animation 3D 5 248 793
10 Dinosaure Etats-Unis / 2000 / Animation 3D 5 217 982
11 Toy Story 2 Etats-Unis / 2000 / Animation 3D 4 529 693
12 Là-haut Etats-Unis / 2009 / Animation 3D 4 508 949
13 Shrek Etats-Unis / 2001 / Animation 3D 4 181 039
14 Arthur et la vengeance de Maltazard France / 2009 / Animation 3D 3 871 771
15 Monstres & Cie Etats-Unis / 2002 / Animation 3D 3 525 505
16 Wall-E Etats-Unis / 2008 / Animation 3D 3 261 002
17 Kung Fu Panda Etats-Unis / 2008 / Animation 3D 3 231 982
18 Madagascar Etats-Unis / 2005 / Animation 3D 3 190 829
19 1001 pattes Etats-Unis / 1999 / Animation 3D 3 161 913
20 Chicken Run Etats-Unis / 2000 / Animation 3D 3 152 330
21 L'Age de glace Etats-Unis / 2002 / Animation 3D 3 029 752
22 Gang de requins Etats-Unis / 2004 / Animation 3D 3 024 175
23 Volt, star malgré lui Etats-Unis / 2009 / Animation 3D 2 970 770
24 Toy Story Etats-Unis / 1996 / Animation 3D 2 759 457
25 Chicken Little Etats-Unis / 2005 / Animation 3D 2 294 864
26 Dragons 3D Etats-Unis / 2010 / Animation 3D 2 225 690
27 Cars Etats-Unis / 2006 / Animation 3D 2 068 442

Pixar has seem gradual improvement since Toy Story 1 grossed 2 759 457 in 1996, it was followed in 1999 by A Bug's Life (3 161 913) and started the new decade with Toy Story 2's 4 529 693. TS2 improved by 64% which is very impressive. TS2 stood as Pixar's best until Nemo's record breaking 9 311 689 for CG animation. Today, TS2 stands as Pixar's 4th largest feature (topped only by Nemo, Ratatouille, The Incredibles) and Disney's 5th if you include Dinosaur. Dreamworks has also performed extremely well here with all 3 Shrek's to date topping 4m admissions and even more potent, the past two Ice Age pics grossing above 6.5m admissions. Can Toy Story 3 reach the upper echelons of CG Animation?

Since the disaster that was Cars, Pixar has registered a solid 3 261 002 for Wall-E and Up's 4 508 949. The trend i think can continue, with TS3 a certain candidate methinks for 5m, the franchise is obviously well loved here and was the original animation franchise. In US$ the record actually belongs to Ice Age 3 which fell just shy of $70m, followed by Ratatouille's $66m and Nemo's $65m. Last Year's Up grossed $40m.


Opening:

TS3 opens the week the World Cup ends on July 14th, it's surrounded by:

June 30 - Shrek 4
July 07 - Twilight Eclipse, Centurion
July 14 - Toy Story 3, Predator, Repo Man
July 21 - Inception
July 28 - The Last Airbender[/size]

...as you can see, pretty big competition. Shrek 4 looks certain to gross 4m (Shrek 3 grossed over 5.5 admissions) and Twilight Eclipse is following on from New Moon's massive 4 201 484 haul and the original's 2 802 847. Both should have explosve openings (especially Twilight which topped 2m admissions, not an easy feet).

1 Le Monde de Nemo Etats-Unis / 2003 / Animation 3D 1 847 461 893 2 069 20 %
2 L'Age de glace 2 Etats-Unis / 2006 / Animation 3D 1 810 305 858 2 110 27 %
3 L'Age de glace 3 - Le Temps des dinosaures Etats-Unis / 2009 / Animation 3D 1 740 293 783 2 223 22 %
4 Shrek Le Troisième Etats-Unis / 2007 / Animation 3D 1 560 650 850 1 836 28 %
5 Shrek 2 Etats-Unis / 2004 / Animation 3D 1 450 074 906 1 601 20 %
6 Ratatouille Etats-Unis / 2007 / Animation 3D 1 391 853 721 1 930 18 %
7 Arthur et les Minimoys France / 2006 / Animation 3D 1 348 862 956 1 411 21 %
8 Madagascar 2 : la grande évasion Etats-Unis / 2008 / Animation 3D 1 248 552 931 1 341 24 %
9 Les Indestructibles Etats-Unis / 2004 / Animation 3D 1 224 220 960 1 275 22 %
10 Arthur et la vengeance de Maltazard France / 2009 / Animation 3D 1 137 410 925 1 230 29 %
11 Dinosaure Etats-Unis / 2000 / Animation 3D 1 130 808 798 1 417 22 %
12 Là-haut Etats-Unis / 2009 / Animation 3D 1 021 029 718 1 422 23 %
13 Kung Fu Panda Etats-Unis / 2008 / Animation 3D 778 134 743 1 047 24 %
14 Shrek Etats-Unis / 2001 / Animation 3D 755 827 669 1 130 18 %
15 Toy Story 2 Etats-Unis / 2000 / Animation 3D 746 786 633 1 180 16 %
16 Wall-E Etats-Unis / 2008 / Animation 3D 746 182 736 1 014 23 %
17 Monstres & Cie Etats-Unis / 2002 / Animation 3D 695 760 809 860 20 %
18 Final Fantasy, les créatures de l'esprit Etats-Unis / 2001 / Animation 3D 637 818 565 1 129 44 %
19 Gang de requins Etats-Unis / 2004 / Animation 3D 583 960 689 848 19 %
20 Volt, star malgré lui Etats-Unis / 2009 / Animation 3D 581 169 687 846 20 %
21 Chicken Little Etats-Unis / 2005 / Animation 3D 559 298 905 618 24 %
22 Madagascar Etats-Unis / 2005 / Animation 3D 542 783 846 642 17 %
23 1001 pattes Etats-Unis / 1999 / Animation 3D 471 286 605 779 15 %
24 Toy Story Etats-Unis / 1996 / Animation 3D 444 343 455 977 16 %
25 Chicken Run Etats-Unis / 2000 / Animation 3D 443 294 506 876 14 %

Others:

Harry Potter 6 Etats-Unis / 2009 / Fantasy 2 388 845 949 2 517 39 %
Twilight 2 Etats-Unis / 2009 / Fantasy 2 112 654 755 2 798 50 %
2012 Etats-Unis / 2009 / Catastrophe 1 973 280 716 2 756 43 %
Avatar Etats-Unis / 2009 / Science Fiction 1 806 542 726 2 488 12 %
Alice In Wonderland (2010) Etats-Unis / 2010 / Fantasy 1 417 803 735 1 929 32 %
Camping 2 France / 2010 / Comédie 1 186 944 781 1 520 31 %
Iron Man 2 Etats-Unis / 2010 / Comicbook 1 092 774 722 1 514 44 %
Robin des Bois (2010) Etats-Unis / 2010 / Aventure - Action 1 039 815 648 1 605 50 %
Shutter Island Etats-Unis / 2010 / Thriller 905 561 500 1 811 30 %


TS3 should have no problems grossing 1m on opening weekend, the question is whether it can hit 1.5m, a feat which no other Pixar pic has obtained besides Nemo...and only 4 CG animated pics in history has obtained (the last being last year's Ice Age 3). At the momment the 1.3m-1.6m range is highly possible i think...though i think it will grossed towards the lower end of that considering the competition.

So Final Prediction:

Opening - 1.4m admissions
Overall - 6.7m admissions

This week's openings...key markets bolded.

It's opening in most of Shrek 4's markets, so should send that movie crashing (especially in Russia). Should be interesting to see how it opens in China and it will surely have great openings in most of the markets bolded.

China 16 June 2010
Egypt 16 June 2010
Iceland 16 June 2010
Argentina 17 June 2010
Hungary 17 June 2010
Israel 17 June 2010
Malaysia 17 June 2010
Peru 17 June 2010
Russia 17 June 2010
Singapore 17 June 2010
Brazil 18 June 2010
Bulgaria 18 June 2010
Canada 18 June 2010
Colombia 18 June 2010
Indonesia 18 June 2010
Kazakhstan 18 June 2010
Mexico 18 June 2010
Panama 18 June 2010
Poland 18 June 2010
Romania 18 June 2010
Taiwan 18 June 2010
USA 18 June 2010

I Hope we get an update for china soon. with 3D it should hopefully have a non-trivial OW.

Animated features don't normally do gangbusters in China....Up opened to just $3.22m, a far cry from most of this year's blockbusters like Clash, Persia, Alice and Iron Man 2 which all open above $7.9m.

Largest animated feature opening in China belongs to Kung Fu Panda which opened to $5.5m, followed by Ice Age 3's $5m.

None of the Pixar movies ever made more total than Shrek 3rd's opening in Russia.

True, though Shrek 4's will be in its 4th week with direct competition, i won't be surprised if we see a 50%+ drop...especially in Russia where you get large drops after just 3 weeks or so. Pixar's largest opening effort is Wall-E at around $5m followed by last year's Up around the $4m mark.

Of course, this doesn't compare to Shrek 4's opening of just under $20m. LOL,

Well, Shrek 4 already dropped 65% last weekend partly because of losing lots of theatres.

Toy Story 3 will send this crashing again, 50% is almost gauranteed...look at how Shrek 3 performed. Though it's pretty mind blowing to see just how far this franchise has grown in the market....more a case of the market then the franchise i think


-----------------------------------------

1 - Shrek 4 - $19,655,930 (1250 SC)

1 - Shrek 3 - $12,118,937 (313,928,944 R - 596 SC)
2 - Shrek 3 - $18,775,254 ($3,430,629/ 91,484,583 R, -71.7%)
3 - Shrek 3 - $21,556,059 ($1,613,250/ 41,816,246 R, -54%)
4 - Shrek 3 - $22,572,018 ($331,243/ 8,605,858 R, -79%)
5 - Shrek 3 - $22,997,217 ($87,341/ 2,217,605 R, -74%) - OUT

1 - Shrek 2 - $2,459,842 (4-Day or $2,003,940 3-Day)
2 - Shrek 2 - $4,537,568 ($1,031,681, -49%)
3 - Shrek 2 - $5,333,813 ($293,762, -72%)
4 - Shrek 2 - $5,538,329 ($117,290, -60%) - OUT

This will be going up against Inception July 15th in HK. Shrek along with Eclipse opens here July 1 so competition for screens will be fierce.

Also, Aftershock and Salt are being released the next week so it'll have little time to build legs. Then, The Last Airbender the week after that.

One good thing about Toy Story 3's chances here is that when both Toy Story and Toy Story 2 were released for one week only back in April, it both managed to gross over $200,000 US in the face of the Ip Man 2/Iron Man 2 battle. That gross may seem little in retrospect, but it shows that there is a market here for animated films.

I wonder if Toy Story 3 will get any previews to the same extent as Shrek 4 has in some markets its opened to. That should add to its grosses. Toy Story 3 going up against Inception, while juggernauts aren't actually gunning for the same audience.

I really wish Disney/Pixar would have moved Toy Story 3 out of July in Japan. I'm sure it can hold it's own, but it's opening right in the center of a box office and multi-media promotional storm.

July 3 - Bayside Shakedown 3
July 10 - Toy Story 3, Pokemon 13
July 17 - Surely Someday, The Borrower Arrietty

TS3 won't be opening at No.1 because of BS3's second weekend, and it'll have to compete head-on with Pokemon. And this year those who pre-order their tickets get a free Legendary Pokemon that activates a new Pokemon from the 5th Generation of games this fall, so needless to say, there'll be more upfront demand than usual and they already open as high as the Pixar films do. And then there's Studio Ghibli to deal with just one week later.

There's just no way avoiding a stunned opening and total in it's current spot. Coming out just half a year after Up might factor in as well.

I wonder if it or Pokemon 13 will have the stronger opening. Bayside Shakedown 3 is the big worry, its predecessor had one of the largest openings and bo runs of all-time in Japan.

For bigger markets it is not an issue, but for smaller markets with fewer screens to allocate, this poses a bigger problem. It doesn't matter if two movies share the same audience. If both movies are highly anticipated like the IM2/IM2 battle, they are both going to fight for screens.

Going back to Toy Story 3, I'm not even sure if it can reach my $4.5m prediction with the amount of competition it faces its second weekend.

Well Iron Man 2 and Ip Man 2 did quite well together, both grossing north of $3m. Shouldn't be so much of a problem here i think cause IM2 and IM2 are both action flciks.

Oh man looks like TS3 will be a huge disappointment this weekend in Poland.

Why?

Screenings on average are around 30-40% full. At best I can see 150k admission but only thanks to big number of copies it's released.

150,000 doesn't sound that bad... When will SH4 open?

SH4 - July 9

150k is max I could see. And it's not that great to be honest when you compare it to other animated movies in Poland.

Okay, I looked up UP's opening - that would be indeed disappointing...

If that's true that would be very dissapointing, especially in a market that normally rewards animation pics. is it the weather or something.

150k admissions does not come even 1/3 of the record holder SHrek 3, and is not as strong as Pixar's previous efforts like

Up - $1,753,625 (or $1,655,908 3-Day - 200)
Ratatouille - $1,487,927 (253,732 adms. or $1,240,024/ 211,890 adms. without p/v - 130)
Wall-E - $1,148,439 (or $996,324 3-Day - 140)
Finding Nemo - $937,569 (or $832,231 without p/v - 125)

Let's hope this is not a sign of things to come..