Potter should still pass it, it is shocking we will have two films make 1 billion this year.

The damage is already done, though, it having crossed $1b.

movies like Ice Age 3 and Alice don't deserve to rate a mention alongside history like Titanic, ROTK and dare i say it, Avatar (which as a movie, doesn't deserve more than 1/3 of its gross).

The weakening of the Euro isn't something I considered earlier when I made that prediction. Alice was released at a a very good time when overseas currencies were doing much, much better.

However, yes. I still think Alice might fail to finish in the top 3 for the year. I didn't say it was a definite, but it is still possible imo.

It could do $1.050 billion for the year.

I can see Harry Potter 7 Pt. 1 doing $1.2 billion or so.

I can see Toy Story 3 perhaps doing $450 m + domestically and surpassing Up's overseas total for $450 m +, so see it as a $1 billion contender as well that could come close to topping Alice as well.

Shrek 4 is also always a wildcard. As badly received as Shrek 3 was domestically, it still only dropped $3 m overseas. Add in 3D, and I could see a $500 m + overseas gross for it, that it could pull an upset. Shrek 2 and Shrek 3's overseas grosses with 3D would be at $590 m + each. Considering the overseas consistency, Shrek 4 could potentially do $600 m overseas. Any overperformance domestically and worldwide could push it over.

The World Cup is another wildcard for the box office this year.

Eclipse looks like another mega success, but I think Alice is just too far ahead.

I feel like something could massively overperform in July/August as well. After the world cup, people will want to see movies again and there is a huge opening there. Though Alice will likely top it. I see Toy Story 3 and HP7 Pt. 1 topping Alice, so that would put it at #3 for the year worldwide. If Shrek 4 or anything else massively overperforms, it would just be cut from the top 3. Though Iron Man disappointing certainly helps its chances now.

There's also the wildcards of November/December.

But overall, the big factor in my mind is what happens to the value of currencies. If the Euro somehow gets to parity this year or next (1 Euro = $1 US) it would certainly make it harder for films this year to top Alice. Hypothetically, a $500 m overseas gross driven by European movie markets last year could be the equivalent of $333 m later this year or next.

So more and more, it will be tougher for films to top Alice, but I do think its still possible for it to miss out on the top 3 for the year...

actually I forgot to say that when HBP was released, Ice Age 3 was a direct and hard competitor, this November it has Megamind, Tangled and Narnia, but everything will depend on the release dates in every country

The first two will be no threat to Potter OS. Narnia is a mystery it could make money but it opens 3-4 weeks after Potter in every market.