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Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=55948		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  Dil [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 3:45 am ]
Post subject:  Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
1 1 Avatar Fox $30,000,000 -14.1% 3,074 -67 $9,759 $594,472,000 - 7
2 N Edge of Darkness WB $17,120,000 - 3,066 - $5,584 $17,120,000 $80 1
3 N When in Rome BV $12,065,000 - 2,456 - $4,912 $12,065,000 - 1
4 4 The Tooth Fairy Fox $10,000,000 -28.6% 3,345 +1 $2,990 $26,106,000 $48 2
5 3 The Book of Eli WB $8,770,000 -44.3% 3,075 -36 $2,852 $74,373,000 $80 3
6 2 Legion (2010) SGem $6,800,000 -61.1% 2,476 - $2,746 $28,646,000 $26 2
7 5 The Lovely Bones P/DW $4,735,000 -43.8% 2,638 +67 $1,795 $38,014,000 $65 8
8 6 Sherlock Holmes WB $4,510,000 -32.0% 2,250 -420 $2,004 $197,596,000 $90 6
9 7 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel Fox $4,000,000 -37.5% 2,526 -447 $1,584 $209,297,000 $75 6
10 9 It's Complicated Uni. $3,720,000 -36.0% 2,096 -205 $1,775 $104,027,000 $85 6
11 11 The Blind Side WB $3,020,000 -27.5% 1,751 -181 $1,725 $237,913,000 $29 11
12 12 Up in the Air Par. $2,700,000


From - http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/. Nice bumps for Avatar and Edge eventhough Edge's opening weekend is still somewhat dissapointing. Holy crap WIR did solid business afterall and Legion is playing exactly like the first Resident Evil movie which means it might be able to limp to 40M domestic or just under.
Author:  Harry Warden [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 3:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
Good increase for Edge.

Will Book of Eli make 100M?
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 4:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
7.4M only for Edge. I was thinking an increase to double digits today :(

Avatar is sailing past 590M for sure. It seems though that it will not make 30M this weekend.

Rome is still impressive and 12M versus Mel's 17.5M is definitely impressive. Interesting for Tooth Fairy I thought it will fall this weekend to Eli. Eli remains the only hope for January 100M break through though it can still miss it by a few million.

Legion and Bones are the movies which are posting numbers even with poor wom, thus I don't see any chance of these 2 in top 10 next week
Author:  Bryan_smith [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 4:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
soagg wrote:
7.4M only for Edge. I was thinking an increase to double digits today :(




you are kidding right?
Since when does any adult theme film increase even close to 100% on it's first Saturday... it's bump is actually quite impressive as is
Author:  Speevy [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 4:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
Great increase for EOD. Compares very favorably to the 23.8% increase Taken had. Should have a nice, long run.
Author:  Harry Warden [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 4:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
soagg wrote:
7.4M only for Edge. I was thinking an increase to double digits today :(

Avatar is sailing past 590M for sure. It seems though that it will not make 30M this weekend.

Rome is still impressive and 12M versus Mel's 17.5M is definitely impressive. Interesting for Tooth Fairy I thought it will fall this weekend to Eli. Eli remains the only hope for January 100M break through though it can still miss it by a few million.

Legion and Bones are the movies which are posting numbers even with poor wom, thus I don't see any chance of these 2 in top 10 next week


Legion is doing better than Daybreakers, at least. It, along with Daybreakers, will be profitable. I don't expect to see the rumored Daybreakers sequel that Ethan Hawke was discussing though. It didn't hold well enough for that and a sequel, at least with the same cast, would be cost-prohibitive.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 4:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
Harry Warden wrote:
Legion is doing better than Daybreakers, at least. It, along with Daybreakers, will be profitable. I don't expect to see the rumored Daybreakers sequel that Ethan Hawke was discussing though. It didn't hold well enough for that and a sequel, at least with the same cast, would be cost-prohibitive.


And why am I quoted for this one? I never said anything about Daybreakers sequel and did not compare Legion with it as well.

Daybreakers left Top 10 the very next weekend and that is not the case with Legion
Author:  Mesjarch [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 4:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
So they expect 35%+ drop for Avatar on Sunday?
Author:  Harry Warden [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 4:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
soagg wrote:
Harry Warden wrote:
Legion is doing better than Daybreakers, at least. It, along with Daybreakers, will be profitable. I don't expect to see the rumored Daybreakers sequel that Ethan Hawke was discussing though. It didn't hold well enough for that and a sequel, at least with the same cast, would be cost-prohibitive.


And why am I quoted for this one? I never said anything about Daybreakers sequel and did not compare Legion with it as well.

Daybreakers left Top 10 the very next weekend and that is not the case with Legion


I just quoted it because you mentioned Legion, that's all. :)

No problems. :)
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 4:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
Bryan_smith wrote:
you are kidding right?
Since when does any adult theme film increase even close to 100% on it's first Saturday... it's bump is actually quite impressive as is


Well sort of but I thought that the Friday numbers were somehow not that great and it should have done better. For the same reason when lot of people predicted that it will cross 24M I thought it can do a 10-11m this Saturday.

Well it has never been done so maybe this was the time. Call me a fan but I was just hoping that it will do 20M for opening weekend.

Though now I see that I am wrong and so a bit disappointed not with the numbers but with my expectations :(
Author:  Bryan_smith [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 4:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
Mesjarch wrote:
So they expect 35%+ drop for Avatar on Sunday?


Not they. That is Nikki. Studio estimates tomorrow will definitley have it above 30 million
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 4:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
Harry Warden wrote:
I just quoted it because you mentioned Legion, that's all. :)

No problems. :)


he he I thought I said something wrong here :D
Author:  Dil [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 4:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
Well it would have been nice to see Edge increase more, but I'm satisfied that it had a decent increase anyways. WOM is mostly positive, so it's not going to be a total disaster for Warner, but I bet they were still expecting better numbers. Also I'm suprised noone has brought up the perfomance of Lovely Bones. It carries a 100M budget, but looks like it's going to finish with no more than 50M. This has to be a big dissapointment for Paramount.
Author:  mark66 [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 5:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
Well, Paramount inherited PARANORMAL ACTIVITY and UP IN THE AIR from DreamWorks so it's only fair that they were left with LOVELY BONES too...
Author:  Mr. R [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 6:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
wrongturn687 wrote:
Well it would have been nice to see Edge increase more, but I'm satisfied that it had a decent increase anyways. WOM is mostly positive, so it's not going to be a total disaster for Warner, but I bet they were still expecting better numbers. Also I'm suprised noone has brought up the perfomance of Lovely Bones. It carries a 100M budget, but looks like it's going to finish with no more than 50M. This has to be a big dissapointment for Paramount.

Now they say it's $65 m. $100 m always looked too much for me.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
Yes I too read that the budget for The Lovely Bones is somewhere between 65-67M.

If they are able to pull in 50M domestic then I guess the Worldwide cume will save the money though it will still be a disappointment
Author:  Nazgul9 [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 12:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
BOM estimates for Avatar: $30M
Friday: $7.5M (+138%)
Saturday: $14M (+87%)
Sunday: $8.5M (-39%)

Hell yeah!
Author:  O [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 12:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
Weekend #'s

1 1 Avatar Fox $30,000,000 -14.1% 3,074 -67 $9,759 $594,472,000 - 7
2 N Edge of Darkness WB $17,120,000 - 3,066 - $5,584 $17,120,000 $80 1
- 4 The Tooth Fairy Fox $10,000,000 -28.6% 3,345 +1 $2,990 $26,106,000 $48 2
- 3 The Book of Eli WB $8,770,000 -44.3% 3,075 -36 $2,852 $74,373,000 $80 3
- 6 Sherlock Holmes WB $4,510,000 -32.0% 2,250 -420 $2,004 $197,596,000 $90 6
- 7 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel Fox $4,000,000 -37.5% 2,526 -447 $1,584 $209,297,000 $75 6
- 11 The Blind Side WB $3,020,000 -27.5% 1,751 -181 $1,725 $237,913,000 $29 11
- 16 Crazy Heart FoxS $2,250,000 +66.3% 239 +146 $9,414 $6,598,000 - 7
- - The Young Victoria App. $584,200 -21.6% 390 +83 $1,498 $7,673,900 $35 7
Author:  lancer1997 [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 12:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
:funny: @ the 40% Avatar drop for Sunday.

-25% = $10.5
-30% = $9.8


MUCH more likely. No way it doesnt go up with actuals. My guess is around +$1.5m
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 12:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
40% drop looks unlikely. Though not sure about the 14M Saturday as well. If Saturday is indeed 14M I guess 31.5M-32M is highly possible
Author:  mark66 [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 12:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
How popular is the Pro Bowl?
Author:  O [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 12:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
Full weekend estimates:

# Title Jan 29 - 31 Jan 22 - 24 % Chg. Theaters Weeks AVG Cumulative Distributor

1 Avatar $ 30,000,000 $ 34,944,081 -14.1 3,074 7 $ 9,759 $ 594,472,000 Fox
2 Edge of Darkness 17,120,000 3,066 1 5,584 17,120,000 Warner Bros.
3 When in Rome 12,065,000 2,456 1 4,912 12,065,000 Buena Vista
4 The Tooth Fairy 10,000,000 14,010,409 -28.6 3,345 2 2,990 26,106,000 Fox
5 The Book of Eli 8,770,000 15,732,463 -44.3 3,075 3 2,852 74,373,000 Warner Bros.
6 Legion 6,800,000 17,501,625 -61.1 2,476 2 2,746 28,646,000 Sony
7 The Lovely Bones 4,735,000 8,418,192 -43.8 2,638 6 1,795 38,014,000 Paramount
8 Sherlock Holmes 4,510,000 6,628,069 -32.0 2,250 6 2,004 197,596,000 Warner Bros.
9 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 4,000,000 6,403,504 -37.5 2,526 6 1,584 209,298,000 Fox
10 It's Complicated 3,720,000 5,810,025 -36.0 2,096 6 1,775 104,027,000 Universal


Top 5 $ 77,955,000 $ 90,606,770 -14.0
Top 10 101,720,000 120,045,486 -15.3

Top 10 vs. 2009 101,720,000 95,933,299 6.0
Top 10 vs. 2008 101,720,000 94,843,468 7.3

Below the Top 10:

The Blind Side 3,020,000 4,166,136 -27.5 1,751 11 1,725 237,913,000 Warner Bros.
Up in the Air 2,700,000 3,902,190 -30.8 1,430 9 1,888 73,173,000 Paramount
Extraordinary Measures 2,575,000 6,012,594 -57.2 2,549 2 1,010 10,401,000 CBS
Crazy Heart 2,250,000 1,353,214 66.3 239 7 9,414 6,598,000 Fox Searchlight
The Spy Next Door 2,020,000 4,584,524 -55.9 1,851 3 1,091 21,485,000 Lionsgate
Leap Year 1,004,000 2,889,110 -65.2 1,135 4 885 24,723,000 Universal
The Princess and the Frog 757,000 1,292,793 -41.4 728 10 1,040 100,309,000 Buena Vista
Daybreakers 695,000 1,551,703 -55.2 725 4 959 29,419,000 Lionsgate
The Young Victoria 584,000 745,514 -21.7 390 7 1,497 8,272,000 Apparition
A Single Man 514,000 717,077 -28.3 216 8 2,380 5,243,000 Weinstein Co.
Author:  lancer1997 [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 1:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
mark66 wrote:
How popular is the Pro Bowl?


Not very.

Consider also that nobody from either Super Bowl team will be playing in it either. Audience wont be very high...Drew 8.8 million viewers last year.

Compare that to the almost 60 million on Sunday last weekend for the AFC/NFC championship games...
Author:  mark66 [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 1:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
lancer1997 wrote:
mark66 wrote:
How popular is the Pro Bowl?


Not very.

Consider also that nobody from either Super Bowl team will be playing in it either. Audience wont be very high...Drew 8.8 million viewers last year.

Compare that to the almost 60 million on Sunday last weekend for the AFC/NFC championship games...

THX! So the projected Sunday drop for AVATAR really seems a bit steep...
Author:  O [ Sun Jan 31, 2010 1:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Early Saturday/Weekend Numbers.
Well the Grammy's are on tonight as well, with a hyped up tribute to Michael Jackson, so those could pull a potential 20 million +, though who knows. The Sunday drop is high though...
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