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 Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! 
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
Have exchange rates fluctuated quite a bit? I always thought that 1b Yen was $10m USD..


Thu Nov 30, 2017 5:46 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
Algren wrote:
Have exchange rates fluctuated quite a bit? I always thought that 1b Yen was $10m USD..


It fluctuates all the time, but it has remained pretty consistent for the majority part of 2017 (since March). $1 has ranged from about ¥109-114 for most of the year, meaning ¥1 billion has equaled about $9 million, give or take $0.1 million or so.

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Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:45 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
Right ok, so the Yen has gotten a little weaker.


Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:49 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
I'll have the Weekend Forecast up here in a bit.

The live-action adaptation of the very popular Fullmetal Alchemist manga/anime from Warner Bros. is looking to achieve the biggest debut at the box office since August.



The film appears to adapt up to the first third of the story. Warner Bros. has a very successful track record at adapting popular manga/anime (Death Note, Rurouni Kenshin, Gintama), and all of them have spawned sequels (a Gintama sequel is planned for next year), so I wouldn't be surprised to see a sequel (or sequels) to Fullmetal Alchemist if the first film is a hit.

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Last edited by Corpse on Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:53 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
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Corpse, how will this fare?

I find it a bit interesting that 1) it is coming out almost immediately after the US release. No delay to build hype first like usual with Japan. And 2) black skin is covered up just like the Chinese poster. Is that also a thing in Japan that they generally dislike black skin?

Overall, though, a much cooler poster than US ones.


Fri Dec 01, 2017 8:56 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
Not much. There just isn't much of an audience for Marvel or DC in Japan, unless Spider-Man or Iron Man are heavily involved. ¥1 billion ($9/10 million) would be a successful total. Regarding black skin... I don't know.

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Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:16 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
I'd be surprised if it makes even $10m. That would be the same as Ragnarok, and that just seems like a film the Japs would prefer over Black Panther, which features (as far as I can tell) nobody but Black Panther.


Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:40 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
Has Justice League come out over there yet?

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Fri Dec 01, 2017 9:51 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/02-03)
Yeah, it debuted at #1, but its opening was well below every other film in the DCEU. It'll top out around $10 million.

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Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:06 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/02-03)
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Weekend Forecast (12/02-03)
01 (---) ¥400,000,000 ($3.6 million), 0, ¥505,000,000 ($4.5 million), Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), Detective in the Bar 3 (Toei) NEW
03 (01) ¥110,000,000 ($980,000), -46%, ¥750,000,000 ($6.7 million), Justice League (Warner Bros.) WK2
04 (02) ¥108,000,000 ($960,000), -27%, ¥1,750,000,000 ($15.6 million), IT (Warner Bros.) WK5
05 (03) ¥73,000,000 ($650,000), -34%, ¥425,000,000 ($3.8 million), Hibana: Spark (Toho) WK2
06 (04) ¥49,000,000 ($435,000), -42%, ¥1,050,000,000 ($9.3 million), High & Low 3: Final Mission (Shochiku) WK4
07 (---) ¥30,000,000 ($265,000), 0, ¥40,000,000 ($355,000), Touken Ranbu: Intermission Flashback Record (Toho Video Division) NEW
08 (06) ¥27,000,000 ($240,000), -38%, ¥1,025,000,000 ($9.2 million), The Last Recipe (Toho) WK5
09 (05) ¥26,000,000 ($230,000), -45%, ¥350,000,000 ($3.1 million), Godzilla: Planet of Monsters (Toho) WK3
10 (07) ¥25,000,000 ($220,000), -40%, ¥275,000,000 ($2.4 million), The Stand-In Thief (Showgate) WK3


Warner Bros.'s live-action adaptation of the very popular Fullmetal Alchemist manga (over 65 million copies sold) and anime debuts this weekend, and is aiming to achieve the biggest opening weekend at the box office since August if all goes well.

The film is directed by Fumihiko Sori (Tomorrow's Joe), and stars Hey! Say! JUMP's Ryosuke Yamada as Edward Elric, Tsubasa Honda as Winry Rockbell, and Dean Fujioka as Roy Mustang. Warner Bros. has a very successful track record of adapting popular Shonen manga for the big screen, and hopes to continue their ongoing success here with another potential film franchise.

Also, the bottom of the Top 10 this weekend is really up in the air. A number of holdovers will be trying to hang on while some limited releases and concert broadcasts attempt to make the chart.

This weekend should serve as a solid start to what should be a strong December this year with the release of Takashi Yamazaki's latest Destiny: The Tale of Kamakura next week (Dec. 09th), followed by Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec. 15th) and Yo-Kai Watch: Shadowside - Resurrection of the Demon King (Dec. 16th) in two weeks.

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Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:08 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
Corpse wrote:


That looks just as crap as the Chinese fantasy movies but with much better level of CG-filmmaking.


Fri Dec 01, 2017 10:56 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/02-03)
I didn't knew FMA live action was being made. Hope it releases here

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Sat Dec 02, 2017 1:46 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (12/02-03)
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Weekend Actuals (12/02-03)
01 (---) ¥264,065,100 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥373,330,500 ($3.3 million), Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.) NEW
02 (---) ¥148,930,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥207,717,200 ($1.8 million), Detective in the Bar 3 (Toei) WK2
03 (01) ¥112,195,400 ($1.0 million), -45%, ¥732,128,700 ($6.6 million), Justice League (Warner Bros.) WK2
04 (02) ¥106,064,500 ($941,000), -28%, ¥1,758,861,600 ($15.7 million), IT (Warner Bros.) WK5
05 (03) ¥74,250,400 ($658,000), -33%, ¥441,049,900 ($3.9 million), Hibana: Spark (Toho) WK2
06 (04) ¥43,606,200 ($387,000), -49%, ¥1,027,651,200 ($9.2 million), High & Low 3: Final Mission (Shochiku) WK4
07 (05) ¥25,896,300 ($230,000), -45%, ¥342,349,800 ($3.0 million), Godzilla: Planet of Monsters (Toho) WK3
08 (06) ¥25,750,700 ($228,000), -41%, ¥1,005,117,700 ($9.0 million), The Last Recipe (Toho) WK5
09 (12) ¥23,346,840 ($207,000), -30%, ¥63,647,640 ($564,000), Kaiketsu Zorori Movie: 30th Anniversary (Tokyo Theaters, Co.) WK2
10 (09) ¥22,793,500 ($202,000), -35%, ¥1,390,944,580 ($12.3 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel, Ch. I - Presage Flower (Aniplex) WK8
11 (07) ¥22,047,400 ($196,000), -47%, ¥281,409,200 ($2.5 million), The Stand-In Thief (Showgate) WK3


>Fullmetal Alchemist came out on top, but its opening is also pretty underwhelming considering the solid pre-sales, marketing, and release strategy. The live-action adaptation of the popular manga/anime sold 191,212 admissions over the weekend frame across 441 screens, and 290,801 admissions since opening on Friday.

Overall, its weekend is poor I'd say, especially since it's noticeably lower than other Shonen live-action adaptations released by Warner Bros., such as Gintama from earlier this year, the Rurouni Kenshin trilogy, and the various Death Note films. The film is probably going to finish a bit above ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million), which is (again) pretty disappointing, but perhaps it can crawl its way to a ¥2 billion (~$20 million) finish to look a bit more respectable.

>Detective in the Bar 3 almost matched its predecessor's debut (down 4%), selling 110,618 admissions over the weekend frame on 334 screens, and 167,529 admissions since opening on Friday. This is a solid start with great audience retention from the 4-year gap between releases. It's not a guarantee, and maybe not even higher than a 50% chance, but reaching the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone is doable.

>Justice League experienced a steep second weekend drop, falling to third place after opening atop the box office last weekend. It's going to exceed the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone, probably finish with about ¥1.1 billion, which is nice, but it's also below every other film in the DCEU. DC's latest has exceeded 500,000 admissions (501,202) after two weeks in release.

>IT enjoyed another good hold, but it has begun to witness more normal drops after increasing/remaining flat in its first three weeks of release. It's still on course to exceed ¥2 billion (~$20 million), a rare milestone for a film in the horror genre. It has exceeded 1.3 million admissions (1,341,367) after five weeks in release.

>High & Low 3: Final Mission exceeded the ¥1 billion milestone in its fourth weekend of release, celebrating the series going four-for-four in reaching the milestone.

>The Last Recipe has exceeding the ¥1 billion milestone as well in its fifth weekend of release, turning a disappointing opening weekend into a very respectable run thus far.

The box office has been in a weak state since Fall began, especially now with the bottom half of the Top 10 being below ¥50 million and the very bottom falling below even ¥25 million. Thankfully,the next couple weeks has several notable films releasing that should liven the box office up again in time for the New Year.

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Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:13 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Opening Weekends: 2018
2018 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1 billion ↨
¥500 million ↨
¥300 million ↨
¥264.1 million ($2.3 million) / 191,212 [441] - Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.)
¥200 million ↨
¥148.9 million ($1.3 million) / 110,618 [334] - Detective in the Bar 3 (Toei)
¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)


2017 - Top Opening Weekends:
Spoiler: show
2017 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1.287 billion ($11.9 million) / 987,568 [368] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Toho)
¥1.065 billion ($9.7 million) / 729,114 [773] - Beauty and the Beast (Disney)
¥1.048 billion ($9.3 million) / 771,516 [989] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney)

¥1 billion ↨
¥691.8 million ($6.1 million) / 592,036 [371] - Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Toho)
¥653.4 million ($5.7 million) / 413,604 [635] - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Disney)
¥633.4 million ($5.6 million) / 420,058 [710] - The Fate of the Furious (Toho-Towa)
¥619.4 million ($5.4 million) / 400,957 [664] - Resident Evil: The Final Chapter (Sony)
¥608.0 million ($5.3 million) / 545,211 [415] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great Adventure of the Flying Whale and the Double Worlds (Toho)
¥598.5 million ($5.4 million) / 478,348 [376] - Despicable Me 3 (Toho-Towa)
¥589.5 million ($5.1 million) / 466,480 [568] - Moana (Disney)
¥546.3 million ($4.9 million) / 421,921 [588] - Sing (Toho-Towa)
¥541.0 million ($4.8 million) / 392,800 [338] - Gintama (Warner Bros.)
¥516.2 million ($4.6 million) / 436,078 [368] - Pokemon: I Choose You! (Toho)

¥500 million ↨
¥484.5 million ($4.3 million) / 404,452 [332] - Shinobi's Country (Toho)
¥448.5 million ($4.1 million) / 289,898 [770] - Spider-Man: Homecoming (Sony)
¥439.6 million ($3.9 million) / 390,416 [315] - Monster Strike: The Movie (Warner Bros.)
¥428.2 million ($3.8 million) / 324,294 [457] - Mary and the Witch's Flower (Toho)
¥425.7 million ($3.8 million) / 308,376 [151] - Sword Art Online: Ordinal Scale (Aniplex)
¥415.8 million ($3.7 million) / 289,979 [308] - La La Land (Gaga)
¥413.0 million ($3.7 million) / 247,507 [128] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel Ch.1 - Presage Flower (Aniplex)
¥401.7 million ($3.5 million) / 316,539 [347] - Partners: The Movie IV (Toei)
¥396.4 million ($3.5 million) / 256,885 [676] - Kong: Skull Island (Warner Bros.)
¥395.8 million ($3.6 million) / 312,431 [360] - Sekigahara (Toho)
¥394.1 million ($3.4 million) / 237,722 [785] - Doctor Strange (Disney)
¥352.2 million ($3.2 million) / 250,155 [287] - Outrage Coda (Warner Bros.)
¥351.5 million ($3.2 million) / 266,064 [314] - High & Low 2: End of Sky (Shochiku)
¥329.8 million ($3.0 million) / 278,790 [349] - Crayon Shin-chan: Invasion!! Shiriri (Toho)
¥328.2 million ($3.0 million) / 197,604 [682] - Transformers: The Last Knight (Toho-Towa)
¥323.9 million ($3.0 million) / 220,149 [464] - Dunkirk (Warner Bros.)
¥321.3 million ($2.9 million) / 233,498 [329] - Confessions of a Murderer (Warner Bros.)
¥320.1 million ($2.9 million) / 251,989 [440] - Cars 3 (Disney)
¥311.1 million ($2.8 million) / 220,615 [574] - The Mummy (Toho-Towa)
¥303.8 million ($2.7 million) / 237,212 [318] - High & Low 3: Final Mission (Shochiku)

¥300 million ↨
¥294.5 million ($2.7 million) / 220,018 [299] - Fireworks, Should We See It from the Side or Bottom? (Toho)
¥294.4 million ($2.7 million) / 209,871 [313] - Hirugao: Love Affairs in the Afternoon (Toho)
¥286.5 million ($2.5 million) / 223,976 [426] - A Man Called Pirate (Toho)
¥276.0 million ($2.4 million) / 228,046 [316] - Kamen Rider Hensei Generations (Toei)
¥273.1 million ($2.5 million) / 171,203 [611] - Ghost in the Shell (Toho-Towa)
¥271.6 million ($2.4 million) / 209,928 [341] - Ajin: Demi-Human (Toho)
¥266.5 million ($2.4 million) / 182,092 [596] - Wonder Woman (Warner Bros.)
¥252.1 million ($2.3 million) / 189,976 [322] - I Want To Eat Your Pancreas (Toho)
¥250.4 million ($2.3 million) / 200,008 [318] - Kamen Rider Ex-Aid: True Ending (Toei)
¥249.4 million ($2.2 million) / 163,143 [705] - Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (Disney)
¥235.1 million ($2.1 million) / 179,623 [276] - Mix (Toho)
¥233.1 million ($2.2 million) / 179,256 [314] - The Third Murderer (Toho)
¥232.8 million ($2.0 million) / 182,044 [156] - Kiseki: Sobito of That Day (Toei)
¥231.7 million ($2.1 million) / 165,876 [306] - Tokyo Ghoul (Shochiku)
¥231.7 million ($2.0 million) / 157,717 [745] - Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children (Fox)
¥230.6 million ($2.0 million) / 148,890 [354] - Thor: Ragnarok (Disney)
¥226.9 million ($2.0 million) / 180,246 [296] - Memory (Toho)
¥226.5 million ($2.0 million) / 149,947 [593] - Blade Runner 2049 (Sony)
¥223.0 million ($1.9 million) / 157,896 [309] - The Mole Song 2: Hong Kong Crazy Uproar Song (Toho)
¥216.0 million ($1.9 million) / 153,784 [289] - Narratage (Toho/Asmik Ace)
¥214.2 million ($1.9 million) / 166,089 [291] - Teiichi: Battle of Supreme High (Toho)
¥209.8 million ($1.9 million) / 167,787 [342] - The Miracles of the Namiya General Store (Shochiku/Kadokawa)
¥205.1 million ($1.8 million) / 167,198 [282] - Honnouji Hotel (Toho)
¥204.4 million ($1.8 million) / 133,500 [639] - Justice League (Warner Bros.)
¥202.3 million ($1.8 million) / 148,909 [756] - War for the Planet of the Apes (Fox)

¥200 million ↨
¥195.3 million ($1.7 million) / 155,882 [275] - The Disastrous Life of Saiki K (Sony/Asmik Ace)
¥194.1 million ($1.7 million) / 159,935 [300] - Let's Go, Jets! (Toho)
¥194.0 million ($1.7 million) / 138,297 [694] - Alien: Covenant (Fox)
¥193.2 million ($1.7 million) / 170,659 [217] - Kirakira ☆ Precure: With Paris! Mille-Feuille of Memories (Toei)
¥190.0 million ($1.7 million) / 124,397 [91] - Kuroko's Basketball The Movie: Last Game (Shochiku)
¥189.6 million ($1.7 million) / 149,376 [306] - Today, I Will Date Tomorrow's You (Toei)
¥189.0 million ($1.7 million) / 145,348 [331] - Blade of the Immortal (Warner Bros.)
¥184.5 million ($1.6 million) / 138,100 [202] - IT (Warner Bros.)
¥179.1 million ($1.6 million) / 145,676 [273] - Daytime Shooting Star (Toho)
¥177.1 million ($1.6 million) / 144,347 [309] - Kamen Rider X Super Sentai: Ultra Superhero War (Toei)
¥175.9 million ($1.6 million) / 133,838 [291] - American Made (Toho-Towa)
¥173.0 million ($1.6 million) / 141,017 [303] - Policeman and Me (Shochiku)
¥165.5 million ($1.5 million) / 117,256 [325] - JoJo's Bizarre Adventure: Diamond Is Unbreakable (Toho)
¥165.3 million ($1.5 million) / 129,886 [765] - Survival Family (Toho)
¥165.0 million ($1.5 million) / 143,000 [251] - I Have Difficulty Being Loved Too Much (Shochiku)
¥163.3 million ($1.4 million) / 113,600 [728] - Logan (Fox)
¥163.0 million ($1.4 million) / 139,000 [311] - A Dog's Purpose (Toho-Towa)
¥162.9 million ($1.4 million) / 106,796 [59] - The Irregular at High School: The Girl Who Summons Stars (Aniplex)
¥161.2 million ($1.4 million) / 115,891 [333] - Shinjuku Swan 2 (Sony)
¥158.0 million ($1.4 million) / 134,976 [214] - Precure the Movie: Dream Stars! (Toei)
¥157.7 million ($1.4 million) / 101,096 [685] - Assassin's Creed (Fox)
¥153.1 million ($1.3 million) / 123,959 [305] - One Week Friends (Shochiku)
¥149.5 million ($1.3 million) / 120,436 [251] - Innocent Curse (Shochiku)
¥142.0 million ($1.3 million) / 120,249 [302] - Peach Girl (Shochiku)
¥140.4 million ($1.3 million) / 101,646 [285] - To Each His Own (Toho)
¥137.5 million ($1.2 million) / 107,000 [312] - The Last Recipe (Toho)
¥133.3 million ($1.3 million) / 104,648 [342] - Silence (Kadokawa)
¥132.2 million ($1.2 million) / 114,515 [401] - xXx: The Return of Xander Cage (Toho-Towa)
¥132.1 million ($1.2 million) / 106,504 [295] - March Comes in Like a Lion (Toho)
¥132.0 million ($1.2 million) / 116,000 [326] - What a Wonderful Family! 2 (Shochiku)
¥127.9 million ($1.2 million) / 95,991 [296] - March Comes in Like a Lion - Part 2 (Toho)
¥126.7 million ($1.1 million) / 91,895 [177] - Your Eyes (Nikkatsu)
¥126.5 million ($1.1 million) / 100,159 [336] - My Teacher (Warner Bros.)
¥126.1 million ($1.1 million) / 107,095 [354] - Flowers and Sword (Toei)
¥125.5 million ($1.1 million) / 94,043 [148] - Asahinagu (Toho Video Division) (Toho Video Division)
¥124.3 million ($1.1 million) / 92,488 [499] - Passengers (Sony)
¥113.1 million ($1.0 million) / 93,487 [273] - The Accountant (Warner Bros.)
¥111.1 million ($1.0 million) / 82,404 [318] - Hibana: Spark (Toho)
¥108.9 million ($0.9 million) / 76,217 [232] - Ancien and the Magic Tablet (Warner Bros.)
¥107.0 million ($0.9 million) / 84,002 [151] - Hamon: Yakuza Boogie (Shochiku)
¥106.5 million ($1.0 million) / 79,891 [199] - Arrival (Sony)
¥105.7 million ($0.9 million) / 83,135 [252] - Hacksaw Ridge (Kino Films)
¥104.6 million ($0.9 million) / 85,500 [315] - A Loving Husband (Toho)
¥102.8 million ($0.9 million) / 71,205 [158] - Godzilla: Planet of Monsters (Toho)
¥101.7 million ($0.9 million) / 79,471 [40] - Is the Order a Rabbit? Dear My Sister (Showgate)
¥101.4 million ($0.9 million) / 71,304 [120] - The Night is Short, Walk on Girl (Toho Video Division)

¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

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Mon Dec 04, 2017 10:14 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/02-03)
Murder on the Orient Express is one of my favorite film of the year (I haven't read or watch any previous adaptation before), and I hope there's some love for Dame Agatha Christie left in Japan, though it works best if you haven't heard any of her works... and you have to be Anglophile to enjoy the Shakespearian-type acting.


Thu Dec 07, 2017 9:35 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
Murder on the Orient Express had a decent first day yesterday (Friday) and appears set for a respectable debut this weekend.

Along with it, Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura, Girls und Panzer: The Final - Part 1, and Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FINAL: Build & Ex-Aid with Legend Riders also debut this weekend, which will help give the box office the boost it really, really needs right now.

I'll post the Weekend Forecast later this evening.

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Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:23 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/09-10)
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(C)2017「DESTINY 鎌倉ものがたり」製作委員会 / (C) GIRLS und PANZER Finale Projekt / C)石森プロ・テレビ朝日・ADK・東映 / (C) 2017 Twentieth Century Fox Film Corporation

Weekend Forecast (12/09-10)
01 (---) ¥325,000,000 ($2.9 million), 0, ¥325,000,000 ($2.9 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) NEW
02 (---) ¥300,000,000 ($2.6 million), 0, ¥300,000,000 ($2.6 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations: Build & Ex-Aid - Legend Riders (Toei) NEW
03 (---) ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), Girls und Panzer: The Finale - Part 1 (Showgate) NEW
04 (---) ¥175,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥240,000,000 ($2.1 million), Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) NEW
05 (01) ¥145,000,000 ($1.3 million), -45%, ¥650,000,000 ($5.7 million), Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.) WK2
06 (02) ¥92,000,000 ($810,000), -38%, ¥425,000,000 ($3.7 million), Detective in the Bar 3 (Toei) WK2
07 (03) ¥73,000,000 ($645,000), -35%, ¥900,000,000 ($8.0 million), Justice League (Warner Bros.) WK3
08 (04) ¥70,000,000 ($620,000), -34%, ¥1,900,000,000 ($16.9 million), IT (Warner Bros.) WK6
09 (05) ¥47,000,000 ($415,000), -37%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), Hibana: Spark (Toho) WK3
10 (06) ¥25,000,000 ($220,000), -42%, ¥1,075,000,000 ($9.6 million), High & Low 3: Final Mission (Shochiku) WK5


>Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura is the latest from renowned director, Takashi Yamazaki (ALWAYS trilogy; Ballad; The Eternal Zero), and is slightly outpacing his previous film -- The Man They Called Pirate -- from last year. At the moment it doesn't appear like it'll replicate the success of Yamazaki's biggest films at the box office, but a debut over ¥300 million can result in a respectable total of ¥2.5 billion (~$25 million) total due to the upcoming holidays in a few weeks.

>Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FINAL: Build & Ex-Aid with Legend Riders is outpacing last December's Generations entry in the franchise quite comfortably, so a debut of ¥300 million, or more, is looking achievable at this stage. And whether or not it manages to debut at #1 in gross, I'm quite confident that it'll top the weekend in terms of admissions -- it's looking pretty impressive. This is the 57 theatrical release in the Kamen Rider film series.

>Girls und Panzer: The Finale - Part 1 is difficult to predict since it's a limited release (59 screens), and has a very dedicated fanbase that have bought tickets well in advance -- not to mention the film's inflated ticket prices. The 2015 release earned ¥128 million in its debut two years ago, so I'm expecting this one to top it given the strong pre-sales, and goodwill from that film. Also, following the success of that 2015 film, the Finale Project is a planned 6 film series.

>Murder on the Orient Express may only debut in fourth place (maybe third), but it's heading for a perfectly fine opening, and I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up being the leggiest wide release this December. A ¥1.5 billion+ (~$15 million+) total would be possible if it debuts near the forecast and connects with audiences this time of year.

The debuts for the openers this weekend will be very important since next weekend sees the release of both Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Yo-Kai Watch: Shadowside - Resurrection of the Demon King, which will dominate theater screens/showtimes. If a film underperforms this weekend, it'll be a primary target for severe screen/showtime cuts next week and cut into its legs during the upcoming holiday season. This will be the third-consecutive year that a Star Wars and Yo-Kai Watch film have opened on the same weekend.

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Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:46 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/09-10)
Saturday Update:

Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FINAL: Build & Ex-Aid with Legend Riders enjoyed a very good first day, well above other Kamen Rider films over the past couple of years. As long as it doesn't drop too much tomorrow, then it should come in above ¥300 million.

Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura performed alright, perhaps on the low/middle side of expectations going into the weekend. It's probably going to debut in second place, but if it can remain flat tomorrow (while Kamen Rider declines), it could still contest for the #1 spot. Its chances of reaching ¥300 million over the weekend are probably less than 50% though.

Murder on the Orient Express doesn't appear to be skewing as old as I expected it to, based on its morning ticket sales versus evening ticket sales, and should come in above the forecast with a good chance of exceeding ¥200 million.

Girls und Panzer: The Finale - Part 1 did very, very well in limited release to no one's surprise, selling around 44% of its available tickets for the day. I have it coming in slightly lower than Orient Express, but its high ticket prices could still provide it the boost to reach/exceed ¥200 million as well.

The holdovers were mostly inline with the forecast, although Fullmetal Alchemist may be unable to avoid a 50% decline, meaning its legs probably won't recover if that happens. It seems positioned to go down as a rare miss by Warner Bros. when adapting Shonen manga for the big screen.

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Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:26 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/09-10)
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Weekend Estimates (12/09-10)
01 (---) ¥375,000,000 ($3.3 million), 0, ¥375,000,000 ($3.3 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations: Build & Ex-Aid - Legend Riders (Toei) NEW
02 (---) ¥300,000,000 ($2.6 million), 0, ¥300,000,000 ($2.6 million), Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura (Toho) NEW
03 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.5 million), Murder on the Orient Express (Fox) NEW
04 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), Girls und Panzer: The Finale - Part 1 (Showgate) NEW
05 (01) ¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), -49%, ¥640,000,000 ($5.6 million), Fullmetal Alchemist (Warner Bros.) WK2
06 (02) ¥91,000,000 ($805,000), -39%, ¥425,000,000 ($3.7 million), Detective in the Bar 3 (Toei) WK2
07 (04) ¥74,000,000 ($650,000), -30%, ¥1,900,000,000 ($16.9 million), IT (Warner Bros.) WK6
08 (03) ¥71,000,000 ($625,000), -37%, ¥900,000,000 ($8.0 million), Justice League (Warner Bros.) WK3
09 (---) ¥50,000,000 ($440,000), 0, ¥50,000,000 ($440,000), 2017 BTS Live Trilogy Episode III: The Wings Tour (Live-Broadcast) NEW
10 (05) ¥44,000,000 ($390,000), -40%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), Hibana: Spark (Toho) WK3
11 (06) ¥29,000,000 ($255,000), -34%, ¥1,080,000,000 ($9.7 million), High & Low 3: Final Mission (Shochiku) WK5


>Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FINAL: Build & Ex-Aid with Legend Riders definitely takes the #1 spot, and actually managed to stay flat (actually increasing about 1%) on Sunday. Not only will it easily come in above ¥300 million, but it probably exceeded ¥350 million as well and could come near ¥400 million.

I'll have to do some research later today, but I know that this is the biggest opening in the Kamen Rider franchise since at least 2012, which has been at a minimum 14 films ago. The Kamen Rider franchise sees 3 films released every year (March/April, August, and December), and this weekend's release marks the 57th theatrical release in the series.

>Destiny: The Tale of Kakamura has to settle for second place, which surely disappoints Toho as this was their big live-action tentpole release this December. However, based on estimates, it will come in slightly above director Takashi Yamazaki's previous film -- The Man They Called Pirate -- so if it can develop similar legs, a total of ¥2.5 billion (~$25 million) is achievable. I'm sure Toho was hoping for a ¥3/4 billion+ hit, though.

>Murder on the Orient Express comes in a respectable third place, and may have earned Fox their biggest debut of 2017 (it needs to beat Miss Peregrine's ¥231.7 million debut from February). As I mentioned on Friday, this is the type of film that's likely to spawn great legs during the upcoming holidays, and with this solid start, I wouldn't rule out a ¥2 billion (~$20 million) total.

>Girls und Panzer: The Finale - Part 1 comes in fourth place, but still performed very well in limited release and will debut above the 2015 film by 15-20% based on estimates. This is the first film in a planned Finale of six parts.

>In ninth place I have 2017 BTS Live Trilogy Episode III: The Wings Tour. This was a live-broadcast of Korean's BTS boy band concert in Seoul on Sunday, and it definitely sold enough admissions (83% sold out) to have earned a Top 10 ranking. However, live-broadcasts are typically excluded from Weekend Rankings, so I'm unsure if it'll be included tomorrow.

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Last edited by Corpse on Sun Dec 10, 2017 4:07 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:48 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/09-10)
Corpse wrote:
>Murder on the Orient Express comes in a respectable third place, and may have earned Fox their biggest debut of 2016 (it needs to beat Miss Peregrine's ¥231.7 million debut from February).

Should be 2017?
Anyway, this is exceed my expectation! Japan will be an important market if MotOE really want to pass $300M Worldwide.


Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:17 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/09-10)
Yes, 2017. ;)

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Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:20 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/09-10)
Fox studio estimates the number to be $2.6 million, a little bit higher than your $2.5m but we will see the actual tomorrow! It's all great news to me ;)


Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:44 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Kamen Rider Opening Weekends
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Biggest Opening Weekends - Kamen Rider Theatrical Franchise (1971-)

¥477.4 million ($5.0 million) - Kamen Rider Decade the Movie: All Riders Vs. Great Shocker (2009)
¥452.6 million ($5.2 million) - Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider W & Decade: Movie War 2010 (2009)
¥410.0 million ($5.0 million) - Kamen Rider × Super Sentai: Super Hero Taisen (2012)
¥378.4 million ($4.8 million) - Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: Movie War Mega Max (2011)
¥375.0 million ($3.3 million) - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FINAL: Build & Ex-Aid with Legend Riders (2017) *Estimate*
¥370.1 million ($4.4 million) - Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (2010)
¥369.7 million ($3.1 million) - Kamen Rider 555: Paradise Lost (2003)
¥349.5 million ($4.5 million) - Kamen Rider OOO Wonderful: The Shogun and the 21 Core Medals (2011)
¥331.1 million ($3.8 million) - Kamen Rider W Forever: A to Z/The Gaia Memories of Fate (2010)
¥321.8 million ($2.6 million) - Kamen Rider Ryuki: Episode Final (2002)
¥304.8 million ($3.6 million) - OOO, Den-O, All Riders: Let's Go Kamen Riders (2011)


This list only includes the biggest opening weekends for the 43 Heisei era (1992-) theatrical releases. It's very difficult (maybe impossible) to find opening weekend data for the 14 Showa era (1971-1989) theatrical releases.

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Sun Dec 10, 2017 4:26 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/09-10)
Amazing, I'm glad that my franchise take a #1 spot after 5 years. Last year Heisei Generations have a box office total gross of ¥723 million. How much do you think this film will have, Corpse?


Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:10 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/09-10)
Freida wrote:
Amazing, I'm glad that my franchise take a #1 spot after 5 years. Last year Heisei Generations have a box office total gross of ¥723 million. How much do you think this film will have, Corpse?


As you're likely aware, the Kamen Rider films are very frontloaded, often struggling to hit a 3 multiplier and always ranking among the most frontloaded wide releases each year. They haven't opened big enough to reach the ¥1 billion milestone in years, but... I think this one can do it. :thumbsup:

I'm thinking ¥1.1/1.2 billion ($10/11 million).

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Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:05 am
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