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 Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast??? (01/23-24) 
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Now DS was down 8% versus last week but it's still very good, will you update your predictions tomorrow @Corpse ?

Me I'm waiting something between $261M and $263M by Sunday, but it could be less or more, it depends mainly on the weekend, besides why are you more and more sure that there will be an increase this weekend compared to last weekend ? Thanks to the announcement of the 1 million copies of gifts or because of the current figures for this weekend a little lighter than expected ?


Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:20 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
The weekend landed right when I was predicting on Friday (between ¥1-1.1 billion), nearly matching the ¥1.030 billion I estimated with ¥1.032 billion. And the total up to Sunday was nearly spot on as well, ¥25.46 billion (actual) vs. ¥25.45 billion (my estimate).

I'll share the daily forecast for this week tomorrow.

I shared what the giveaway is going to be this upcoming weekend on the last page, and that's why I'm expecting an increase next weekend (or at the very least, a flat result). It's going to be a hugely sought after item among its millions of core fans, and with "just" 1 million available, you can certainly bet they're going to swamp theaters on Saturday.

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“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:38 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Hi guys. Do you have any idea how much is the average ticket price during Titanic's and Spirited Away's release in Japan vs now for Demon Slayer? Thanks. :sweat: :funny:


Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:32 am
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
czarhans wrote:
Hi guys. Do you have any idea how much is the average ticket price during Titanic's and Spirited Away's release in Japan vs now for Demon Slayer? Thanks. :sweat: :funny:


Titanic: 1,556
Spirit Away: 1,310
Demon Slayer: 1,336


Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:42 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
czarhans wrote:
Hi guys. Do you have any idea how much is the average ticket price during Titanic's and Spirited Away's release in Japan vs now for Demon Slayer? Thanks. :sweat: :funny:


Welcome to the forum! :thumbsup:


Tue Nov 24, 2020 2:02 am
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Full Fledged Member

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Japan would have university entrance exams on January wonder if it would affect December or January box office


Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:05 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Spirited Away was 1294, 304/2350.
The box office was updated to 308 but the addmission wasn't updated


Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:18 am
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
So first day with less than 100k admits on day 40.

About 25-30% weekly drop depending on how the later shows go. Looks like 55k so far.


Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:52 am
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
I'm too lazy to look at each perivous page (lol) but I remember Corpse made a comment about what are the requirements for a movie to break the 15B yen, 20B yen, 25B yen,... as these milestone are very hard to achieve even with lots of advertisement throuh many ways and perfect visual effect.
A movie with only lots of advertisements and great visual effect can somehow pass the 15B yen milestone but to reach 20B yen, it needs something more relating to people in society,......... and not to mention that 25B yen, lol.
And 15B yen is really not a small number for a movie in this market. It is a very big number and target for movie in general.
For example, Avatar, a movie with perfect visual effect + 3D effect was at its peak with lots of advertisements back then, "only grossed" 15.5B yen in the market....


Tue Nov 24, 2020 6:58 am
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
charlie jat wrote:
So first day with less than 100k admits on day 40.

About 25-30% weekly drop depending on how the later shows go. Looks like 55k so far.


is it normal for a movie after a holiday day or it needs to do better? :yummy:


Tue Nov 24, 2020 7:09 am
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Alo12345 wrote:
charlie jat wrote:
So first day with less than 100k admits on day 40.

About 25-30% weekly drop depending on how the later shows go. Looks like 55k so far.


is it normal for a movie after a holiday day or it needs to do better? :yummy:


I don't know about Japan, but everywhere else, latter in run day after holiday has bigger drop because Holiday drives people who might have watched film on following days to the Holiday.

Besides, don't read much into daily drops too much.


Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:06 am
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
26% drop considering it's a tuesday after holiday monday and loss of screens seems fine to me.


Tue Nov 24, 2020 8:50 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
A 26% Tues.-to-Tues. drop is great coming off a three-day holiday (Monday) weekend. The morning and afternoon sales appear abnormally strong (was only down 5/10%) because of the holiday spillover. Theaters moved Demon Slayer off their biggest screen, and split the IMAX showings in favor for Doraemon, so many of its showings on Monday afternoon/day were packed (80%+ full) as a result of smaller auditoriums.

Also, the giveaway announcement at noon yesterday could have slowed business a little in the evening. The film is still doing unprecedented numbers even in its sixth week now, but the demand is of course lower than the earlier weeks, so there'll probably be a negative impact on the weekdays before a giveaway weekend moving forward. Fans are going to rush on Saturday to get it, while scalpers will also rush to see it (again) in order to sell them online.

I know I wouldn't be going to see it for the first time or as a repeat viewing on a Tuesday-Friday ahead of a limited-print giveaway that begins Saturday and will be gone in 2/3 days. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will probably be down 25/30%+ versus last week.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:17 am
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Honestly, it reassures me that the drop today is around 25% as I expected base because when I saw a 3% drop in the morning I said to myself either there is a bug on the numbers or there is a special event on Tuesday which would explain this drop so small. What numbers can we reach by Friday ? Me I'm waiting around ¥26.4Bn- ¥26.5Bn and around 19.9 million admissions and by Sunday some things around ¥27.3Bn- ¥27.4Bn and around 20.6 million admissions.

@Corpse it's the first week of December or there is the release of the last volume of the manga is it ? I hope this will positively impact the box office and that there will be no restrictions for the covid by the next.


Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:34 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Alo12345 wrote:
I'm too lazy to look at each perivous page (lol) but I remember Corpse made a comment about what are the requirements for a movie to break the 15B yen, 20B yen, 25B yen,... as these milestone are very hard to achieve even with lots of advertisement throuh many ways and perfect visual effect.
A movie with only lots of advertisements and great visual effect can somehow pass the 15B yen milestone but to reach 20B yen, it needs something more relating to people in society,......... and not to mention that 25B yen, lol.
And 15B yen is really not a small number for a movie in this market. It is a very big number and target for movie in general.
For example, Avatar, a movie with perfect visual effect + 3D effect was at its peak with lots of advertisements back then, "only grossed" 15.5B yen in the market....


It's not really a matter of special effects.

¥10 billion is the ultimate goal for tentpoles to reach. It varies by year as it depends on the films themselves in the end, but most years see maybe 2 or 3 ¥10 billion earners. There really isn't any specific requirements that need met to reach this milestone. Not to say it's easy to reach, it's not, it basically just takes enough interest and demand to get there with a favorable release date.

¥15 billion is where it becomes difficult. Anything really over ¥11/12 billion, really, is difficult, not just going all the way to ¥15 billion. Basically this milestone also needs to simply meet the interest and demand level to earn this number, but it also needs something "extra" to get it there. That extra factor can be a variety of things. In Avatar's case, it was 3D that piqued interest throughout its run, and which also inflated its average ticket price, and Cameron's name. In Ponyo's case, it was the Miyazaki/Ghibli brand recognition.

¥20 billion can be considered that phenomenon milestone. Only six films have gotten to this milestone (Demon Slayer being that sixth film). In order to reach this milestone, all the above applies as well, but on top of that, it really needs something outside the realm of film to reach and attract your non-typical moviegoers. A huge presence in a different industry. One of the biggest and most important means of doing this is popular, preferably chart-topping, music. 4/6 films above this milestone all had popular music (Titanic, Your Name., Frozen, and now Demon Slayer). Another is having record book/manga sales, which allows for an advantage early on and allows for a continued effect as it creates a cycle (dude reads books/manga, goes sees movie, goes back to read more of the books/manga, goes back to see movie (Harry Potter 1 and Demon Slayer).

¥25 billion is honestly just icing on the cake. Everything above also applies here, and except for Harry Potter 1 (which barely hit ¥20 billion), all the ¥20 billion films also hit ¥25 billion.

¥30 billion, well, is just more of the same. Only Spirited Away has done it, and it only did so because it won the Best Animated Film Oscar that resulted it in receiving a big expansion in Japan that got it there. It would have finished around ¥29 billion otherwise. So I suppose for this milestone, it needs a... unforeseen event. Spirited Away won Best Animated Film at the Oscars (not too surprising given the competition, but a major accomplishment for a foreign film and for the country). And for Demon Slayer, it's COVID. COVID has absolutely helped it by providing an escape for a lot of people, and with messaging that really resonates with the Japanese people in these times: A time period many older audiences are nostalgic for again, a story to help those who have, or currently are, contemplating suicide (major issue, especially now), and that general "never give up" attitude (this isn't original by any means, but it's highly important right now).

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:57 am
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Hatchling

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Hello guys so a couple of days I posted there would be some "Super huge news" about KnY announced in the newest Weekly Shonen Jump (The manga magazine that published it while it was running) I thought for sure it was something about the anime (Be it a second movie or second season) turns out apparently it's just about the release of an art book and a new fanbook.

I say apparently because this is leaked info, the issue will be released officially Sunday 29th, but leaks are usually correct.


Tue Nov 24, 2020 10:57 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
LPLC wrote:
Honestly, it reassures me that the drop today is around 25% as I expected base because when I saw a 3% drop in the morning I said to myself either there is a bug on the numbers or there is a special event on Tuesday which would explain this drop so small. What numbers can we reach by Friday ? Me I'm waiting around ¥26.4Bn- ¥26.5Bn and around 19.9 million admissions and by Sunday some things around ¥27.3Bn- ¥27.4Bn and around 20.6 million admissions.

@Corpse it's the first week of December or there is the release of the last volume of the manga is it ? I hope this will positively impact the box office and that there will be no restrictions for the covid by the next.


I'll post a daily forecast for the week later today.

The last volume is being released on December 4th.

And don't be worried about COVID. COVID has helped it way more than having caused any potential harm. Testing over weekends is lower than the weekdays, and I don't want to speak too soon, but the case numbers dropped over the weekend, especially in Tokyo. Theaters aren't going to close, 50% capacity restriction at the worst, which just slows it down a bit. And I mean a "bit" because it'll continue to have so many screens and showtimes (likely to get back near/over 1 million seats at the usual locations again this weekend), that it won't cause much of an impact.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:23 am
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
So the requirement for 30B yen milestone is all things mentioned for above milestones + an unforeseen event.

"COVID has absolutely helped it by providing an escape for a lot of people, and with messaging that really resonates with the Japanese people in these times: A time period many older audiences are nostalgic for again, a story to help those who have, or currently are, contemplating suicide (major issue, especially now), and that general "never give up" attitude (this isn't original by any means, but it's highly important right now)."

This is interesting, can you explain this more. Thank you.

And beside many the external factors required for each big milestone you mentioned above , what are the requirements for internal factor of the movie such as plot, chatacters, movie message,... in order to achieve each of those milestone?


Last edited by Alo12345 on Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:12 pm, edited 3 times in total.



Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:33 am
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Hatchling

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Corpse is there any possibility of it becoming the highest grossing film of 2020?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_in_f ... sing_films

That... would be sick lol


Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:40 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Well being highest grossing flim depend if it get released in china or not also wonder Woman new movie is getting released in China and Japan in December. also how well it do in like in other Asian countries.


Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:50 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
But I am sure that it would be in top 5


Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:51 am
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
and do you think there will be a positive impact on the Demon Slayer box office on December 4th or from December 4th? A positive impact of the same magnitude as the gifts perhaps?


Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:52 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
rija wrote:
Corpse is there any possibility of it becoming the highest grossing film of 2020?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_in_f ... sing_films

That... would be sick lol


Not without a release in China. Some members here have said it's too violent/bloody, and their officials have denied it a release. I don't think it can be censored (not really sure how they'd even do this, honestly), so I wouldn't expect a release there for time being. Not saying it's impossible, I don't know the Chinese market very well, but the amount of censoring would just be too much, and effectively eliminate the most important moments in the film.

Here is the International thread, by the way:
viewtopic.php?f=12&t=87522

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:53 am
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Don't Dream It, Be It
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
LPLC wrote:
and do you think there will be a positive impact on the Demon Slayer box office on December 4th or from December 4th? A positive impact of the same magnitude as the gifts perhaps?


I expect the manga-only readers will probably go see it for their first time (not necessary to finish the series to see the movie though) OR more likely as a repeat viewing, but I wouldn't expect a similar boost as the giveaways. The difference is with the giveaway, you receive something in return for seeing the film.

I'll reply to you soon, Alo12345.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Tue Nov 24, 2020 11:58 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
I think that in future demon slayer would get prequel
or maybe sequel seeing it's popularity


Tue Nov 24, 2020 12:07 pm
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