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 Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (02/24) 
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND (01/18-19); Weathering's U.S. Deb
Corpse wrote:
Kris K wrote:
Hey Corpse, how is Cats expected to do next weekend?


It'll be interesting to watch. I honestly don't expect much given the overwhelming poor box-office results and dismal critic and audience scores elsewhere, but the musical is very popular and well-known in Japan. I wouldn't rank it as high as Les Miserables or Phantom of the Opera, but it's certainly up there. There's even a Cats-dedicated theatre in Japan that has put on something like 11,000 shows, playing year-round since 1983 (averaging 305 shows a year!). The Japanese version of the musical varies a bit from the original Western version. It helps that Japan also really, really like cats (a lot).

A film adaptation of the musical has great potential in the market, no doubt. I just have doubts about this particular film.

Later this week, either on Wednesday or Thursday, I'll post the Musical Box-Office History update and talk more about Cats.



Thank you


Tue Jan 21, 2020 4:03 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND (01/18-19); Weathering's U.S. Deb
Corpse wrote:
fiery_cockatrice wrote:
Corpse, along with searching for information about the Showa Gamera features, do you think it's possible to estimate the number of tickets the Heisei Gamera movies sold? Guardian of the Universe (1995) made 520 million yen, Advent of Legion (1996) made 700 million yen, Revenge of Iris (1999) made 600 million yen, and The Brave (2006) made 410 million yen.


Getting estimates for those films will be pretty easy. I don't have a lot of free time this evening, and will be spending most of it posting the Weekend Actuals and Chart Updates, but I'll have them posted for you in a day or two. Question though: Are those the Distributor Income totals, or the actual Revenue Gross?

Those numbers are the distribution income totals.


Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:01 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND (01/18-19); Weathering's U.S. Deb
Corpse wrote:
mark66 wrote:
WEATHERING WITH YOU did €731,688 (61,391 admissions) in its Thursday and Sunday shows in Germany...


Do you have any comparisons to Your Name., or from Studio Ghibli or other Japanese anime films in the market? 61,391 certainly looks good.


YOUR NAME opened with €785,141 (64,830 admissions) two years ago and went on to make €1,189,278 (103,700 admissions)

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Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:33 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND (01/18-19); Weathering's U.S. Deb
fiery_cockatrice wrote:
Corpse wrote:
fiery_cockatrice wrote:
Corpse, along with searching for information about the Showa Gamera features, do you think it's possible to estimate the number of tickets the Heisei Gamera movies sold? Guardian of the Universe (1995) made 520 million yen, Advent of Legion (1996) made 700 million yen, Revenge of Iris (1999) made 600 million yen, and The Brave (2006) made 410 million yen.


Getting estimates for those films will be pretty easy. I don't have a lot of free time this evening, and will be spending most of it posting the Weekend Actuals and Chart Updates, but I'll have them posted for you in a day or two. Question though: Are those the Distributor Income totals, or the actual Revenue Gross?

Those numbers are the distribution income totals.


Alright. I'm going to estimate their gross based on the distributor income, and then estimate their admissions from that number for you:

665,000 - Guardian of the Universe
900,000 - Advent of Legion
760,000 - Revenge of Iris
530,000 - The Brave

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Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:43 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND (01/18-19); Weathering's U.S. Deb
mark66 wrote:
Corpse wrote:
mark66 wrote:
WEATHERING WITH YOU did €731,688 (61,391 admissions) in its Thursday and Sunday shows in Germany...


Do you have any comparisons to Your Name., or from Studio Ghibli or other Japanese anime films in the market? 61,391 certainly looks good.


YOUR NAME opened with €785,141 (64,830 admissions) two years ago and went on to make €1,189,278 (103,700 admissions)


Good retention. Thank you. 100,000 admissions looks to be a bit tough, but hopefully it hits that mark.

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:45 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/1
Jonathan wrote:
Damn, Parasite just keeps finding new countries to break out in! :D How is it doing compared to other Korean films? Could it become one of the biggest ever in Japan?


I'm not finding any successful Korean films. When I say "successful", I just mean ones that earned above ¥1 billion (~$10 million) at the box-office. A film can still be successful if they fail to reach this milestone, ¥500 million is certainly good, especially for non-Hollywood imported releases like this one.

So, unless I'm missing one (and I do feel there's a glaring one I overlooked somewhere*), it seems likely to me that Parasite will become the biggest Korean film in Japan since it's going to easily gross over ¥1 billion ($10 million); it should be good for around ¥1.5 billion (almost $15 million) even without picking up any major wins at the Academy Awards.

It may have even been the #1 film at the box-office on Tuesday (and certainly #2). Of course, it's suppose to be playing strongly over the weekdays due to its largely adult-audience, but its weekday performance has been very impressive regardless.

*If there's a Korean film someone thinks (or knows) performed well internationally, particularly in Japan, please let me know so I can check on it.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:05 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND (01/18-19); Weathering's U.S. Deb
Corpse wrote:
fiery_cockatrice wrote:
Corpse wrote:
fiery_cockatrice wrote:
Corpse, along with searching for information about the Showa Gamera features, do you think it's possible to estimate the number of tickets the Heisei Gamera movies sold? Guardian of the Universe (1995) made 520 million yen, Advent of Legion (1996) made 700 million yen, Revenge of Iris (1999) made 600 million yen, and The Brave (2006) made 410 million yen.


Getting estimates for those films will be pretty easy. I don't have a lot of free time this evening, and will be spending most of it posting the Weekend Actuals and Chart Updates, but I'll have them posted for you in a day or two. Question though: Are those the Distributor Income totals, or the actual Revenue Gross?

Those numbers are the distribution income totals.


Alright. I'm going to estimate their gross based on the distributor income, and then estimate their admissions from that number for you:

665,000 - Guardian of the Universe
900,000 - Advent of Legion
760,000 - Revenge of Iris
530,000 - The Brave

From what I can find it seems the budgets for the first three films were in the $4-$7 million neighborhood. Were they profitable with admission numbers like that? Though I'm not sure how big of a cut Toho got from distributing them.


Tue Jan 21, 2020 9:26 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/1
Corpse wrote:
*If there's a Korean film someone thinks (or knows) performed well internationally, particularly in Japan, please let me know so I can check on it.


The only Korean film I remember making the top 10 is Haeundae. According to Mojo The Host (2006) made more on OW, but obviously neither of these anywhere near Parasite numbers.


Wed Jan 22, 2020 3:53 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND (01/18-19); Weathering's U.S. Deb
fiery_cockatrice wrote:
From what I can find it seems the budgets for the first three films were in the $4-$7 million neighborhood. Were they profitable with admission numbers like that? Though I'm not sure how big of a cut Toho got from distributing them.


All except for The Brave. The other three would have either grossed the high-end of that budget range or slightly exceeded it. They would have been very small profits though.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:30 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/1
Tower wrote:
Corpse wrote:
*If there's a Korean film someone thinks (or knows) performed well internationally, particularly in Japan, please let me know so I can check on it.


The only Korean film I remember making the top 10 is Haeundae. According to Mojo The Host (2006) made more on OW, but obviously neither of these anywhere near Parasite numbers.


There are usually a few Korean films each year that barely make the Top 10 in their debut, but none have had notable lengthy-performances, and they've never earned ¥1 billion or close to it, to my knowledge.

It's probably safe to say that Parasite will become the highest grossing Korean film in Japan, if it hasn't already achieved that goal. It was #1 at the box-office on Wednesday by a comfortable margin (grossing around ¥40 million ($350,000+)), and even increased versus last Wednesday.

I'll keep an eye on news articles talking about it since such a record would surely be mentioned.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Wed Jan 22, 2020 7:35 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 43rd Japan Academy Prize Nominations
43rd Japan Academy Prize Nominations

Picture of the Year
*Kingdom
*The Journalist
*Fly Me to the Saitama
*Family of Strangers
*Listen to the Universe

Animation of the Year
*Her Blue Sky
*Weathering With You
*Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire
*Lupin III: The First
*One Piece: Stampede

Director of the Year
*Shinsuke Sato – Kingdom
*Masayuki Suo – Talking the Pictures
*Hideki Takeuchi – Fly Me to the Saitama
*Hideyuki Hirayama – Family of Strangers
*Michihito Fujii – The Journalist

Screenplay of the Year
*Shōzō Katashima – Talking the Pictures
*Roba Shimori, Akihiko Takaishi and Michihito Fujii – The Journalist
*Yūichi Tokunaga – Fly Me to the Saitama
*Hideyuki Hirayama – Family of Strangers
*Kōki Mitani – Hit Me Anyone One More Time

Actor in a Leading Role
*Shōfukutei Tsurube II – Family of Strangers
*Masaki Suda – The Great War of Archimedes
*Kiichi Nakai – Hit Me Anyone One More Time
*Tori Matsuzaka – The Journalist
*Gackt – Fly Me to the Saitama

Actress in a Leading Role
*Shim Eun-kyung – The Journalist
*Fumi Nikaidō – Fly Me to the Saitama
*Mayu Matsuoka – Listen to the Universe
*Rie Miyazawa – No Longer Human
*Sayuri Yoshinaga – The Bucket List

Actor in a Supporting Role
*Gō Ayano – Family of Strangers
*Yūsuke Iseya – Fly Me to the Saitama
*Tasuku Emoto – The Great War of Archimedes
*Takashi Okamura – The 47 Ronin in Debt
*Kuranosuke Sasaki – Aircraft Carrier Ibuki
*Ryo Yoshizawa – Kingdom

Actress in a Supporting Role
*Yūki Amami – The Bucket List
*Nana Komatsu – Family of Strangers
*Mitsuki Takahata – A Banana? At This Time of Night?
*Masami Nagasawa – Kingdom
*Fumi Nikaidō – No Longer Human

Achievement in Music
*Yoshikazu Suo – Talking the Pictures
*Dai Fujikura and Daisuke Shinoda – Listen to the Universe
*Yutaka Yamada – Kingdom
*Face 2 fAKE – Fly Me to the Saitama
*Radwimps – Weathering With You

Achievement in Cinematography
*Tarō Kawazu – Kingdom
*Kōzō Shibazaki – Family of Strangers
*Sōhei Tanikawa – Fly Me to the Saitama
*Piotr Niemyjski – Listen to the Universe
*Jun'ichi Fujisawa – Talking the Pictures

Achievement in Lighting Direction
*Nariyuki Ueda – Family of Strangers
*Shunri Rinoie – Fly Me to the Saitama
*Kenjirō Sō – Listen to the Universe
*Tatsuya Osada – Talking the Pictures

Achievement in Art Direction
*Yōji Abeki – Fly Me to the Saitama
*Norihiro Isoda – Talking the Pictures
*Iwao Saitō – Kingdom
*Anri Jōjō – The Great War of Archimedes
*Katsumi Nakazawa – Family of Strangers

Achievement in Sound Recording
*Kazuhiro Katō – Fly Me to the Saitama
*Yoshifumi Kureishi – Listen to the Universe
*Michihiro Kōri – Talking the Pictures
*Masato Komatsu – Family of Strangers
*Kazushiko Yokono – Kingdom

Achievement in Film Editing
*Tsuyoshi Imai – Kingdom
*Shinji Kawamura – Fly Me to the Saitama
*Chieko Suzaki – Family of Strangers
*Tatsuma Furukawa – The Journalist
*Ryūji Miyajima – The Great War of Archimedes

Newcomer of the Year
*Yukino Kishii – Just Only Love
*Yuina Kuroshima – Talking the Pictures
*Riho Yoshioka – Blind and Parallel World Love Story
*Ōji Suzuka – Listen to the Universe
*Win Morisaki – Listen to the Universe
*Ryusei Yokohama – Aiuta: My Promise to Nakuhito, Cheer Boys!! and Inakunare, Gunjō

Foreign Language Picture of the Year
*Yesterday
*Green Book
*Joker
*The Mule
*Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

The ceremony will take place on March 6th, 2020 at the Grand Prince Hotel New Takanawa in Tokyo, Japan.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:05 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/1
43rd Japan Academy Prize Nomination Tally:



12 - Fly Me to the Saitama
11 - Family of Strangers
9 - Kingdom
7 - Taking the Pictures

6 - The Journalist
6 - Listen to the Universe

4 - The Great War of Archimedes
2 - Hit Me Anyone One More Time
2 - No Longer Human
2 - The Bucket List
2 - Weathering With You

1 - Lupin III: The First
1 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire
1 - Her Blue Sky
1 - One Piece: Stampede
1 - The 47 Ronin in Debt!
1 - A Banana? At This Time of Night?
1 - Aircraft Carrier Ibuki


*Excludes Best Newcomer and Foreign Language Picture.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Last edited by Corpse on Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:26 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:05 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 43rd Japan Academy Prize Nominations
A couple of quick notes about this year's nominations:

>Fly Me to the Saitama (or Tonde Saitama), the film with the most nominations this year and one of the three leading contenders to win Best Picture is a comedy film. If it wins Best Picture, I believe it'll be the first comedy to ever win the award. It's a very good film, and I'd recommend it, but knowledge of Japan (some about the geography, a lot about the pop culture) is certainly recommended to appreciate it for its jokes, puns and humor; it's chock-full of references.

>The Mule gives Clint Eastwood his 8th nominated film in Best Foreign Language, once again breaking his own record.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Wed Jan 22, 2020 11:16 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/1
Corpse wrote:
Tower wrote:
Corpse wrote:
*If there's a Korean film someone thinks (or knows) performed well internationally, particularly in Japan, please let me know so I can check on it.


The only Korean film I remember making the top 10 is Haeundae. According to Mojo The Host (2006) made more on OW, but obviously neither of these anywhere near Parasite numbers.


There are usually a few Korean films each year that barely make the Top 10 in their debut, but none have had notable lengthy-performances, and they've never earned ¥1 billion or close to it, to my knowledge.

It's probably safe to say that Parasite will become the highest grossing Korean film in Japan, if it hasn't already achieved that goal. It was #1 at the box-office on Wednesday by a comfortable margin (grossing around ¥40 million ($350,000+)), and even increased versus last Wednesday.

I'll keep an eye on news articles talking about it since such a record would surely be mentioned.


Hi Corpse, I think there's one movie in 2005 called A Moment to Remember that was pretty big in Japan, though I don't remember the exact number. You can probably check on that.


Thu Jan 23, 2020 6:02 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 43rd Japan Academy Prize Nominations
What are you expecting for Cats this weekend Corpse?


Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:20 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 43rd Japan Academy Prize Nominations
Thanks, Corpse!


Thu Jan 23, 2020 3:54 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/1
peterfdt123 wrote:
Hi Corpse, I think there's one movie in 2005 called A Moment to Remember that was pretty big in Japan, though I don't remember the exact number. You can probably check on that.


I'll look into it. :thumbsup:

Kris K wrote:
What are you expecting for Cats this weekend Corpse?


It's received a ton of seating and showtimes, though it's mostly due to the state of the market right now and being the only notable opener. I'll have the Musical Box-Office History post up soon with a bit about how Cats may perform this weekend.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Thu Jan 23, 2020 9:41 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Live Action Musical Box Office History
Live-Action Musicals Box Office History:

Opening Weekends:
¥1.065 billion ($9.7 million) / 729,114 - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥439.0 million ($4.9 million) / 387,118 - Mamma Mia! (2009)
¥426.0 million ($3.6 million) / 328,722 - Into the Woods (2015)
¥415.8 million ($3.7 million) / 289,979 - La La Land (2017)
¥398.7 million ($3.7 million) / 292,516 - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (2008)
¥390.7 million ($3.7 million) / 267,619 - The Greatest Showman (2018)
¥334.0 million ($3.3 million) / 248,620 - The Phantom of the Opera (2005)
¥295.4 million ($3.6 million) / 229,225 - Les Miserables (2012)
¥282.4 million ($2.3 million) / 209,806 - Chicago (2003)
¥218.6 million ($1.9 million) / 164,186 - Annie (2015)
¥203.5 million ($1.7 million) / 152,800 - Dreamgirls (2007)
¥186.2 million ($1.7 million) / 139,000 - Mary Poppins Returns (2019)
¥152.0 million ($1.4 million) / 117,873 - Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again (2018)
¥130.0 million ($1.1 million) / 98,000 - Moulin Rouge! (2001)
¥120.7 million ($1.4 million) / 88,994 - Nine (2010)
¥119.9 million ($1.0 million) / 90,695 - Hairspray (2007)
¥119.1 million ($1.0 million) / 87,000 - The Producers (2006)


Totals:
¥12.40 billion ($109.7 million) / 8.95 million - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥5.89 billion ($65.3 million) / 4.80 million - Les Miserables (2012)
¥5.22 billion ($48.5 million) / 3.73 million - The Greatest Showman (2018)
¥4.42 billion ($39.0 million) / 3.23 million - La La Land (2017)
¥4.20 billion ($37.1 million) / 3.26 million - The Phantom of the Opera (2005)
¥3.50 billion ($28.9 million) / 2.65 million - Chicago (2003)
¥2.60 billion ($28.2 million) / 2.14 million - Mamma Mia! (2009)
¥2.38 billion ($20.0 million) / 1.85 million - Into the Woods (2015)
¥2.05 billion ($19.8 million) / 1.53 million - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (2008)
¥1.92 billion ($16.1 million) / 1.50 million - Dreamgirls (2007)
¥1.40 billion ($11.8 million) / 1.11 million - Annie (2015)
¥1.12 billion ($10.8 million) / 0.86 million - Mary Poppins Returns (2019)
¥1.00 billion ($8.4 million) / 0.78 million - Moulin Rouge! (2001)
¥1.00 billion ($8.0 million) / 0.76 million - The Producers (2006)


Cats debuts this weekend and... I think it's going to do decently, at least compared to how badly it's performed about everywhere else. Friday's early numbers aren't bad. I'm expecting an opening weekend around ¥200/250 million at the moment, which would likely be enough to get it above the ¥1 billion ($10 million) mark if that opening happens.

As I mentioned earlier in the week, Cats is a very popular and well-known musical in Japan. I don't have any actual data to back this statement up, but I'd rank it among the Top 5 easily, and perhaps even in the Top 3 most popular/well-known (Phantom of the Opera and Les Miserables would be the only sure musicals I'd rank ahead of it).

But the negative reception, dismal reviews, and terrible box-office results in the U.S. and elsewhere will have an impact despite its status. And while I believe the Japanese reception won't be nearly as toxic, I also don't believe it'll be particularly good due to the reliance on CG over costume and make-up which the musical is often associate with.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Thu Jan 23, 2020 10:13 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 43rd Japan Academy Prize Nominations
Thanks very much Corpse


Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:12 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 43rd Japan Academy Prize Nominations
No problem. Stay active to see the Weekend Forecast here soon because the Saturday pre-sales for Cats are quite good. It might not deliver on its full potential, but it's going to open higher than I projected yesterday.

It may have saved its #1 market for last.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:30 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/25-26)
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Weekend Forecast (01/25-26)
01 (---) ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), 0, ¥400,000,000 ($3.7 million), Cats (Toho-Towa) NEW
02 (01) ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), -22%, ¥1,375,000,000 ($12.5 million), Kaiji: Final Game (Toho) WK3
03 (02) ¥166,000,000 ($1.5 million), -19%, ¥12,775,000,000 ($117.1 million), Frozen II (Disney) WK10
04 (05) ¥139,000,000 ($1.3 million), +05%, ¥925,000,000 ($8.4 million), Parasite (Bitter's End) WK3
05 (03) ¥122,000,000 ($1.1 million), -32%, ¥6,750,000,000 ($61.7 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) WK6
06 (04) ¥102,000,000 ($930,000), -25%, ¥425,000,000 ($3.9 million), Last Letter (Toho) WK2
07 (06) ¥x70,000,000 ($640,000), -36%, ¥725,000,000 ($6.6 million), Ford v. Ferrari (Fox) WK3
08 (07) ¥x63,000,000 ($575,000), -39%, ¥285,000,000 ($2.6 million), The Memory Eraser (Shochiku) WK2
09 (12) ¥x58,000,000 ($530,000), +40%, ¥1,535,000,000 ($14.0 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) WK6
10 (08) ¥x52,000,000 ($475,000), -28%, ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), Made in Abyss: Dawn of the Deep Soul (Kadokawa) WK2


This is shaping up to be a better weekend than it seemed a few days ago.

>Cats is aiming to make Japan its #1 overseas market. The musical is very well-known in Japan--there's even a Cats-dedicated theatre that has put on over 11,000 shows since 1983--and its pre-sales are quite good. I don't see it opening below ¥250 million based on them, and think it could approach ¥300 million over the weekend frame. An opening on this scale would be on the mid-to-upper tier for live-action musicals. Musicals also tend to have good legs, so look for a total on the upper-range of ¥1.5-2.0 billion ($15-20 million) if this opening comes to pass.

>Parasite saw almost daily week-to-week increases heading into its third weekend, and its Saturday pre-sales are suggesting it may experience a weekend increase. As we've discussed here, this is almost certainly the highest grossing Korean film ever in the market (I need to check one more film to say with certainly). And I don't really see it slowing down much unless it's snubbed at the Academy Awards, so I believe we're looking at possible total over ¥2 billion ($20 million), and a lot more if it wins Best Picture.

>My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising is receiving a 4DX expansion this weekend, so it'll likely rise back into the Top 10. It saw a Fri-to-Fri increase of over 150%, but the weekend increase will come in below that due to the early rush from the fanbase to see it ASAP to receive the limited giveaway at 4DX showings. It's incredibly difficult to predict increases in these cases, but I'm expecting something between 30-50%.

>I'm not going to talk about the remaining holdovers in the forecast this weekend. Most of them are looking to achieve good/great holds. But because I know I'll be asked about Frozen II, it's looking at one of the better holds this weekend, and a much, much needed drop. It's still too little, too late though, and passing Weathering With You is nigh impossible now. Still, it's increased its chances of it reaching the ¥13.5 billion ($124/125 million) milestone to jump over a couple more films on the all-time chart and settle in the #14 all-time position.
-

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Fri Jan 24, 2020 8:18 pm
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/25-26)
Japan should wait a little bit more before releasing Cats, it almost reach a cult classic status in western world.

Oh, and Promare will release Blu-ray next month, I'm wondering if it can reach ¥1.5B...


Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:45 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/25-26)
Corpse wrote:
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(C) 2019 Universal Pictures.All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Forecast (01/25-26)
01 (---) ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), 0, ¥400,000,000 ($3.7 million), Cats (Toho-Towa) NEW
02 (01) ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), -22%, ¥1,375,000,000 ($12.5 million), Kaiji: Final Game (Toho) WK3
03 (02) ¥166,000,000 ($1.5 million), -19%, ¥12,775,000,000 ($117.1 million), Frozen II (Disney) WK10
04 (05) ¥139,000,000 ($1.3 million), +05%, ¥925,000,000 ($8.4 million), Parasite (Bitter's End) WK3
05 (03) ¥122,000,000 ($1.1 million), -32%, ¥6,750,000,000 ($61.7 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) WK6
06 (04) ¥102,000,000 ($930,000), -25%, ¥425,000,000 ($3.9 million), Last Letter (Toho) WK2
07 (06) ¥x70,000,000 ($640,000), -36%, ¥725,000,000 ($6.6 million), Ford v. Ferrari (Fox) WK3
08 (07) ¥x63,000,000 ($575,000), -39%, ¥285,000,000 ($2.6 million), The Memory Eraser (Shochiku) WK2
09 (12) ¥x58,000,000 ($530,000), +40%, ¥1,535,000,000 ($14.0 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) WK6
10 (08) ¥x52,000,000 ($475,000), -28%, ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), Made in Abyss: Dawn of the Deep Soul (Kadokawa) WK2


This is shaping up to be a better weekend than it seemed a few days ago.

>Cats is aiming to make Japan its #1 overseas market. The musical is very well-known in Japan--there's even a Cats-dedicated theatre that has put on over 11,000 shows since 1983--and its pre-sales are quite good. I don't see it opening below ¥250 million based on them, and think it could approach ¥300 million over the weekend frame. An opening on this scale would be on the mid-to-upper tier for live-action musicals. Musicals also tend to have good legs, so look for a total on the upper-range of ¥1.5-2.0 billion ($15-20 million) if this opening comes to pass.
-



This is great to hear. Thanks!


Sat Jan 25, 2020 4:18 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/1
Corpse wrote:
Jonathan wrote:
Damn, Parasite just keeps finding new countries to break out in! :D How is it doing compared to other Korean films? Could it become one of the biggest ever in Japan?


I'm not finding any successful Korean films. When I say "successful", I just mean ones that earned above ¥1 billion (~$10 million) at the box-office. A film can still be successful if they fail to reach this milestone, ¥500 million is certainly good, especially for non-Hollywood imported releases like this one.

So, unless I'm missing one (and I do feel there's a glaring one I overlooked somewhere*), it seems likely to me that Parasite will become the biggest Korean film in Japan since it's going to easily gross over ¥1 billion ($10 million); it should be good for around ¥1.5 billion (almost $15 million) even without picking up any major wins at the Academy Awards.

It may have even been the #1 film at the box-office on Tuesday (and certainly #2). Of course, it's suppose to be playing strongly over the weekdays due to its largely adult-audience, but its weekday performance has been very impressive regardless.

*If there's a Korean film someone thinks (or knows) performed well internationally, particularly in Japan, please let me know so I can check on it.


How exciting! It's wild that the film premiered eight months ago now, has been available on torrent sites in high qualities for a while, and is still getting so many people to still check it out in theaters.


Sat Jan 25, 2020 1:33 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/1
Jonathan wrote:
How exciting! It's wild that the film premiered eight months ago now, has been available on torrent sites in high qualities for a while, and is still getting so many people to still check it out in theaters.


Japan remains a country where illegal downloads, torrents, bootlegs, basically piracy in general is almost non-existent. It's just not an option for most Japanese. This is another reason why releasing films in theaters in Japan many months later than everywhere else is perfectly fine and doesn't hurt its box-office potential either.

And Japan is very, very serious regarding copyright material, and they have very strict piracy laws, especially for those who get caught uploading copyright material. If one is caught downloading, they can receive 2-years in prison AND a ~$25,000 fine. If one is caught uploading, well, you will receive 10-years in prison and a ~$125,000 fine. And the public shame that comes from an arrest in Japanese culture would largely ruin someone's career (they'd never get hired, like...ever) and social life.

There are even more strict proposals going through the Government right now, some that are causing discussion on whether they violate an individual's privacy and violate the constitution. One of the first new proposals that I'm aware of is having ISPs monitor user activity (with permission) and alert users via a pop-up when they're about to enter a piracy site. Such measures are largely unnecessary given how little of a problem piracy actually is there, but copyright is a zero-tolerance issue in the country.

You'll probably notice that I always put the copyright info below any pictures I post here of the #1 film in the Weekend Forecast/Actuals, and it's because of this. Eagle used to get copyright infringement emails (warning that the site would be shut down if it continued), and I can almost guarantee they were because of the movie screenshots I once posted without the copyright info.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:42 pm
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