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 Japan Box-Office: Theaters To Resume 100% Capacity This Week 
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/0
Hi Corpse, is there a form of hype for Dolittle in Japan ? What are you expecting ?


Wed Jan 08, 2020 6:50 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/0
Danhjpn wrote:
This week Wednesday movies dont seem to have a bump... hmm!!


Based on the results from Monday and Tuesday, some schools were still closed. But they're all certainly back in session now with the week-to-week drops being closer to the 70/80% I was expecting on Monday.

LPLC wrote:
Hi Corpse, is there a form of hype for Dolittle in Japan ? What are you expecting ?


It might so decent business. I don't see much interest in it right now, but it has a good release date (March 20th, the start of Spring Break) and should find some sort of audience, even if it's a few people from various demographics (which I expect).

Let's say ¥2 billion (~$20 million) potential for now.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:02 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Top Grossing Animated Films
Top Grossing Animated Films (¥3 billion+)

001. ¥30.80 billion ($249.0 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
002. ¥25.50 billion ($249.6 million) - Frozen (2014)
003. ¥25.03 billion ($236.5 million) - Your Name. (2016)
004. ¥19.60 billion ($190.0 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
005. ¥19.30 billion ($165.5 million) - Princess Mononoke (1997)
006. ¥15.50 billion ($156.0 million) - Ponyo (2008)
007. ¥14.04 billion ($130.3 million) - Weathering With You (2019) [25 Weeks in Release]
008. ¥12.02 billion ($123.5 million) - The Wind Rises (2013)
009. ¥11.29 billion ($103.5 million) - Frozen II (2019) [7 Weeks in Release]
010. ¥11.00 billion ($102.4 million) - Finding Nemo (2003)
011. ¥10.80 billion ($130.7 million) - Toy Story 3 (2010)
012. ¥10.08 billion ($94.2 million) - Toy Story 4 (2019)
013. ¥9.37 billion ($85.5 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
013. ¥9.37 billion ($76.8 million) - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
015. ¥9.25 billion ($111.9 million) - Arrietty (2010)
016. ¥9.18 billion ($83.6 million) - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
016. ¥9.18 billion ($77.7 million) - Big Hero 6 (2014)
018. ¥8.96 billion ($91.3 million) - Monsters University (2013)
019. ¥8.38 billion ($80.2 million) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
020. ¥7.80 billion ($66.2 million) - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
021. ¥7.65 billion ($62.9 million) - Tales from Earthsea (2006)
022. ¥7.63 billion ($70.6 million) - Zootopia (2016)
023. ¥7.54 billion ($67.8 million) - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back! (1998)
024. ¥7.31 billion ($66.1 million) - Despicable Me 3 (2017)
025. ¥6.89 billion ($61.6 million) - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
026. ¥6.87 billion ($77.1 million) - One Piece Film Z (2012)
027. ¥6.83 billion ($65.8 million) - Finding Dory (2016)
028. ¥6.46 billion ($54.4 million) - The Cat Returns (2002)
029. ¥6.36 billion ($64.8 million) - Pokemon: Revelation Lugia (1999)
030. ¥6.33 billion ($58.1 million) - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
031. ¥5.85 billion ($47.7 million) - The Boy and the Beast (2015)
032. ¥5.55 billion ($52.1 million) - One Piece: Stampede (2019)
033. ¥5.53 billion ($46.5 million) - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
034. ¥5.37 billion ($50.0 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (2018)
035. ¥5.30 billion ($64.0 million) - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (2012)
036. ¥5.26 billion ($51.1 million) - The Incredibles (2004)
037. ¥5.21 billion ($42.9 million) - Minions (2015)
038. ¥5.18 billion ($50.3 million) - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
039. ¥5.16 billion ($46.1 million) - Moana (2017)
040. ¥5.11 billion ($45.4 million) - Sing (2017)
041. ¥5.02 billion ($45.6 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (2019)
041. ¥5.02 billion ($47.2 million) - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: The Rise of Darkrai (2007)
043. ¥5.00 billion ($60.5 million) - Up (2009)
043. ¥5.00 billion ($46.6 million) - Coco (2018)
045. ¥4.90 billion ($44.3 million) - Incredibles 2 (2018)
045. ¥4.90 billion ($40.2 million) - Dinosaur (2000)
047. ¥4.85 billion ($45.8 million) - Pokemon: Spell of the Unown (2000)
048. ¥4.80 billion ($58.1 million) - One Piece Film Strong World (2009)
048. ¥4.80 billion ($53.3 million) - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Giratina and the Sky Warrior (2008)
050. ¥4.67 billion ($51.6 million) - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Arceus and the Jewel of Life (2009)
051. ¥4.50 billion ($38.4 million) - Pokemon Advanced: Jirachi - Wishmaker (2003)
052. ¥4.48 billion ($37.1 million) - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (2015)
053. ¥4.47 billion ($57.8 million) - From Up on Poppy Hill (2011)
054. ¥4.45 billion ($32.5 million) - Porco Rosso (1992)
055. ¥4.43 billion ($39.6 million) - Doraemon: Great Adventure in the Antarctic (2017)
056. ¥4.38 billion ($39.1 million) - Pokemon Advanced: Destiny Deoxys (2004)
057. ¥4.33 billion ($56.1 million) - Pokemon Best Wishes: White - Victini and Zekrom/Black - Victini and Reshiram (2011)
058. ¥4.30 billion ($38.9 million) - Pokemon Advanced: Lucario and the Mystery of Mew (2005)
059. ¥4.26 billion ($41.2 million) - Lupin III vs. Detective Conan (2013)
060. ¥4.25 billion ($37.2 million) - Aladdin (1993)
061. ¥4.24 billion ($41.1 million) - The Secret Life of Pets (2016)
062. ¥4.22 billion ($53.9 million) - Wolf Children (2012)
063. ¥4.16 billion ($50.3 million) - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Zoroark - Master of Illusions (2010)
064. ¥4.12 billion ($36.7 million) - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (2016)
065. ¥4.11 billion ($40.3 million) - Detective Conan: Dimensional Sniper (2014)
066. ¥4.05 billion ($40.3 million) - Pom Poco (1994)
067. ¥4.04 billion ($33.5 million) - Inside Out (2015)
068. ¥4.00 billion ($36.0 million) - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (2018)
068. ¥4.00 billion ($44.2 million) - Wall-E (2008)
068. ¥4.00 billion ($44.2 million) - Evangelion 2.0: You Can (Not) Advance (2009)
071. ¥3.98 billion ($43.4 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum (2013)
072. ¥3.93 billion ($33.1 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes (2015)
073. ¥3.90 billion ($36.3 million) - Ratatouille (2007)
073. ¥3.90 billion ($32.5 million) - Pokemon: Celebi - Voice of the Forest (2001)
075. ¥3.86 billion ($35.0 million) - Ralph Breaks the Internet (2018)
076. ¥3.74 billion ($31.1 million) - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (2015)
077. ¥3.63 billion ($37.1 million) - Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (2013)
078. ¥3.62 billion ($46.2 million) - Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (2012)
079. ¥3.61 billion ($46.1 million) - Pokemon Best Wishes: Kyurem Vs. The Sacred Swordsman - Keldeo (2012)
080. ¥3.58 billion ($35.1 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (2014)
081. ¥3.55 billion ($32.3 million) - Pokemon: I Choose You! (2017)
082. ¥3.54 billion ($30.0 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure into the Underworld (2007)
083. ¥3.53 billion ($34.0 million) - Memories of Marnie (2014)
084. ¥3.50 billion ($35.6 million) - Detective Conan: The Raven Chaser (2009)
085. ¥3.45 billion ($29.9 million) - Toy Story 2 (2000)
086. ¥3.44 billion ($31.9 million) - The Boss Baby (2018)
087. ¥3.40 billion ($28.2 million) - Pokemon Advanced: Pokemon Ranger and the Temple of the Sea (2006)
087. ¥3.40 billion ($30.3 million) - Detective Conan: The Phantom of Barker Street (2002)
089. ¥3.37 billion ($32.1 million) - Doraemon: Nobita and the Green Giant Legend (2008)
090. ¥3.29 billion ($29.7 million) - Mary and the Witch's Flower (2017)
091. ¥3.28 billion ($42.3 million) - Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (2012)
091. ¥3.28 billion ($27.6 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Dinosaur (2006)
093. ¥3.26 billion ($28.2 million) - Yo-Kai Watch: Great Adventure of the Flying Whale and the Double Worlds, Nyan! (2016)
094. ¥3.20 billion ($31.7 million) - The Lion King (1994)
094. ¥3.20 billion ($28.6 million) - Detective Conan: Crossroad in the Ancient Capital (2003)
094. ¥3.20 billion ($35.2 million) - Detective Conan: Lost Ship in the Sky (2010)
097. ¥3.17 billion ($33.0 million) - Pokemon Best Wishes: ExtremeSpeed Genesect - Mewtwo Awakens (2013)
098. ¥3.16 billion ($33.6 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Merman Sea Adventure (2010)
099. ¥3.13 billion ($39.8 million) - Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (2011)
100. ¥3.09 billion ($27.9 million) - Pokemon: Everyone's Story (2018)
101. ¥3.05 billion ($29.0 million) - Doraemon: Nobita and the Legend of the Sun King (2000)
101. ¥3.05 billion ($28.9 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Wannyan Space-Time Odyssey (2004)
103. ¥3.03 billion ($26.8 million) - Detective Conan: The Private Eyes' Requiem (2006)
104. ¥3.01 billion ($39.0 million) - Cars 2 (2011)
105. ¥3.00 billion ($32.4 million) - Wreck-It Ralph (2013)
105. ¥3.00 billion ($25.8 million) - Doraemon: Nobita and the Winged Braves (2001)
105. ¥3.00 billion ($25.8 million) - One Piece: Clockwork Island Adventure (2001)


2019 Entries in Highlight.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Wed Jan 08, 2020 8:56 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/0
So Frozen 2 could potentially finish between the 6th place and the 7th place, it's interesting and an awesome rank. Corpse, in the list of Most Attended film in Japan, Avatar is at 10,1 millions admissions, are you sure about that ? because I saw somewhere else that Avatar is at 12,37 millions admissions ..


Wed Jan 08, 2020 9:46 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/0
Where did you read that? If it's just a comment or post on another board, that's one thing, but if you read it in a news article or something, that's a big error.

I'm know it's 10.1 million because it originally fell short of 10 million admissions after Alice in Wonderland nearly ended its run (3D screen loss) on April 16th, 2010. And on July 7th, 2010, it ended its original with ¥15.47 billion on 9.9 million admissions, but then the re-release in the Fall allowed Fox to get it above Ponyo's ¥15.5 billion total and over the 10 million admissions milestone.

And 12.37 million admissions would mean its average ticket price was only (and impossibly) ¥1,261. That's on par with, even below, the average ticket price of a 2D release. Not to mention being far, far below the average for a 3D release, especially back in 2010-2012 when 3D shares were 70/80% for nearly all 3D releases.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:03 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/0
I'm going to have the Weekend Forecast up soon, but a note before I post them.

Saturday is going to come in pretty low. Monday is a national holiday, so weekend business is often spread out over the three days with Sunday's in particular being noticeably stronger than normal due to the increase in evening business. I won't be surprised by 40/50% Saturday-to-Saturday declines, so don't be alarmed if you're tracking the box-office this weekend. Sunday will recover a lot to give the weekend frame itself more reasonable drops, and then Monday will be about as strong as Saturday.

Just saying that now because I know someone is going to jump the gun when they see Frozen II or Star Wars being down 50% compared to last Saturday. It'll be okay.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Fri Jan 10, 2020 6:44 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/11-12)
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Weekend Forecast (01/11-12)
01 (01) ¥342,000,000 ($3.1 million), -31%, ¥11,980,000,000 ($109.8 million), Frozen II (Disney) WK8
02 (02) ¥326,000,000 ($3.0 million), -33%, ¥5,935,000,000 ($54.3 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) WK4
03 (---) ¥275,000,000 ($2.5 million), 0, ¥360,000,000 ($3.3 million), Kaiji: Final Game (Toho) NEW
04 (---) ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), Ford v. Ferrari (Fox) NEW
05 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($915,000), 0, ¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), Parasite (Bitter's End) NEW
06 (03) ¥x98,000,000 ($895,000), -41%, ¥1,015,000,000 ($9.4 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san! (Shochiku) WK3
07 (04) ¥x58,000,000 ($530,000), -40%, ¥1,310,000,000 ($11.9 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) WK4
08 (05) ¥x44,000,000 ($400,000), -35%, ¥820,000,000 ($7.6 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) WK4
09 (06) ¥x42,000,000 ($385,000), -37%, ¥975,000,000 ($9.0 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) WK4
10 (07) ¥x39,000,000 ($355,000), -35%, ¥680,000,000 ($6.2 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) WK5


3-Day Holiday Weekend Forecast (01/11-13): Coming of Age Day
01 (01) ¥482,000,000 ($4.4 million), -03%, ¥12,120,000,000 ($111.1 million), Frozen II (Disney) WK8
02 (02) ¥459,000,000 ($4.3 million), -06%, ¥6,070,000,000 ($55.6 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) WK4
03 (---) ¥390,000,000 ($3.6 million), 0, ¥475,000,000 ($4.3 million), Kaiji: Final Game (Toho) NEW
04 (---) ¥300,000,000 ($2.7 million), 0, ¥350,000,000 ($3.2 million), Ford v. Ferrari (Fox) NEW
05 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), Parasite (Bitter's End) NEW
06 (03) ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), -16%, ¥1,055,000,000 ($9.8 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san! (Shochiku) WK3
07 (04) ¥x83,000,000 ($760,000), -16%, ¥1,335,000,000 ($12.2 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) WK4
08 (05) ¥x64,000,000 ($585,000), -06%, ¥840,000,000 ($7.8 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) WK4
09 (06) ¥x61,000,000 ($555,000), -10%, ¥995,000,000 ($9.2 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) WK4
10 (07) ¥x55,000,000 ($500,000), -08%, ¥695,000,000 ($6.3 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) WK5

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:40 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/11-12/13)
Based on the weekend forecast, it needs 3B yen more after this 2 days weekend or 2.8B yen more after 3 days holidays weekend to reach 15B yen... Does it still have enough gas to barely cross that mark?


Fri Jan 10, 2020 10:37 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/11-12/13)
Seems like a fair shot given that the competition is going to be slow in the coming weeks (as Corpse mentioned). Its weekends are still pretty strong so a multiplier of 9 from here on should be achievable (though ofcourse is not guaranteed) for a movie of this magnitude.


Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:10 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/11-12/13)
It's going to be close, I think. Running some numbers, I'm getting around ¥14 billion (~$130 million). As you know, that's right where Weathering With You (¥14.04 billion) currently stands. It's not doing well over the weekdays now, and will need some very strong weekend holds coming up. I don't think Disney has any actual reason to make sure it beats Weathering With You though, besides claiming it as the biggest film of 2019. But local news outlets have already reported Weathering With You as the top film of 2019 since technically Frozen II is a 2020 release, so Disney reporting that wouldn't be true.

Frozen II is already the highest grossing animated sequel in the market, and will soon become Disney's second highest grossing film ever when it surpasses Beauty and the Beast (2017) next week. And it obviously won't beat its predecessor, so they'll be no more milestones or notable accomplishments left to achieve unless it develops incredibly strong late-legs that could allow it to approach the All-Time Top 10, but that seems very, very unlikely.

Therefore, it's possible Disney doesn't give it the push to beat Weathering With You or reach the ¥15 billion milestone. Either way, whatever happens, the film performed very well in the market, and ended up falling the expected ~40% from its predecessors, which has become the norm for the follow-ups to the only four ¥25 billion films:

Spirited Away (¥30.80 billion) --> Howl's Moving Castle (¥19.60 billion) [-36.7%]
Titanic (¥26.20 billion) --> Avatar (¥15.60 billion) [-40.5%]
Frozen (¥25.50 billion) --> Frozen II (~¥14/15 billion) [~-41-45%]
Your Name. (¥25.03 billion) --> Weathering With You (~¥14.04 billion) [~-44.0%]

These declines are NOT bad, and there's a reason for them being pretty close in their declines. They're simply follow-ups to ridiculously phenomenal original performers (the top four films of all-time) that reached non-movie fans and irregular moviegoers in order to reach such heights.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:12 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/11-12/13)
Wait, so WWY is not the sequel of Your Name? I have not watched the movie yet, just looked at the poster and I thought it was a sequel...
Still hope F2 to beat WWY tho...
Do you have the ranking chart for sequel in Japan market, including all kinds of movie not only animation?
Thank you


Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:40 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/11-12/13)
Corpse, do you have any box office numbers or attendance figures for the Showa Gamera films (1965-1980)? The only thing I've been able to dig up is that Gamera vs Gyaos took the 25th place in Kinema Junpo's top domestic gross list of 1967.


Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:53 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/11-12/13)
fiery_cockatrice wrote:
Corpse, do you have any box office numbers or attendance figures for the Showa Gamera films (1965-1980)? The only thing I've been able to dig up is that Gamera vs Gyaos took the 25th place in Kinema Junpo's top domestic gross list of 1967.


I can check on them sometime next week. I'm going on a trip starting Monday and will be away for four or five days.

But I will say I haven't come across any of them in the past. Before 1980, it can be very difficult to find admissions for most films unless they were big blockbusters. I'll try though.

Danhjpn wrote:
Wait, so WWY is not the sequel of Your Name? I have not watched the movie yet, just looked at the poster and I thought it was a sequel...
Still hope F2 to beat WWY tho...
Do you have the ranking chart for sequel in Japan market, including all kinds of movie not only animation?
Thank you


Weathering With You is an original film, not a sequel to Your Name.. Makoto Shinkai has his own unique style, so those unfamiliar with his films can certainly think they're related in some way by just looking at posters or trailers; he hasn't directed any sequels though.

Yes. I'll have the chart up for Biggest Sequels this evening.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:01 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top 50 Sequels and Prequels
Top 50 Highest-Grossing Sequels & Prequels

01 (08) ¥17.35 billion ($164.5 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
02 (09) ¥17.30 billion ($147.8 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
03 (14) ¥13.50 billion ($125.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
04 (19) ¥12.70 billion ($117.6 million) - Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999)
05 (24) ¥11.63 billion ($96.3 million) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
06 (25) ¥11.29 billion ($103.5 million) - Frozen II (2019) [7 Weeks in Release]
07 (26) ¥11.00 billion ($90.5 million) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
07 (26) ¥11.00 billion ($88.0 million) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
09 (30) ¥10.90 billion ($102.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
10 (31) ¥10.80 billion ($130.7 million) - Toy Story 3 (2010)
11 (33) ¥10.32 billion ($100.2 million) - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
12 (35) ¥10.08 billion ($94.2 million) - Toy Story 4 (2019)
13 (36) ¥10.02 billion ($82.3 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
14 (38) ¥9.70 billion ($94.1 million) - Mission: Impossible II (2000)
15 (40) ¥9.67 billion ($125.3 million) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
16 (41) ¥9.53 billion ($77.9 million) - Jurassic World (2015)
17 (42) ¥9.50 billion ($85.6 million) - Jurassic Park: The Lost World (1997)
17 (42) ¥9.50 billion ($66.0 million) - Back to the Future - Part II (1989)
19 (44) ¥9.40 billion ($80.6 million) - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
20 (45) ¥9.37 billion ($85.5 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
21 (47) ¥9.35 billion ($78.2 million) - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
22 (48) ¥9.18 billion ($83.6 million) - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
23 (53) ¥9.17 billion ($83.4 million) - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)
24 (57) ¥8.96 billion ($91.3 million) - Monsters University (2013)
25 (58) ¥8.87 billion ($114.9 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
26 (59) ¥8.79 billion ($49.6 million) - Terminator 2: Judgement Day (1991)
27 (66) ¥8.20 billion ($67.9 million) - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003)
27 (66) ¥8.20 billion ($54.0 million) - Back to the Future - Part III (1990)
29 (71) ¥8.07 billion ($72.3 million) - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
30 (72) ¥8.04 billion ($97.2 million) - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
31 (73) ¥8.00 billion ($84.3 million) - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
32 (74) ¥7.90 billion ($66.0 million) - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2003)
33 (81) ¥7.51 billion ($66.3 million) - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
34 (83) ¥7.40 billion ($49.4 million) - Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (1989)
35 (84) ¥7.34 billion ($64.8 million) - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (2016)
36 (85) ¥7.33 billion ($93.6 million) - Umizaru: Brave Hearts (2012)
37 (86) ¥7.31 billion ($66.1 million) - Despicable Me 3 (2017)
37 (86) ¥7.31 billion ($88.4 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (2010)
39 (88) ¥7.20 billion ($81.7 million) - Die Hard with a Vengeance (1995)
40 (89) ¥7.12 billion ($66.9 million) - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
41 (90) ¥7.10 billion ($61.7 million) - Umizaru: Limit of Love (2006)
42 (94) ¥6.89 billion ($61.6 million) - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
43 (96) ¥6.87 billion ($77.1 million) - One Piece Film Z (2012)
44 (98) ¥6.86 billion ($88.9 million) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 (2010)
45 (99) ¥6.83 billion ($65.8 million) - Finding Dory (2016)
46 (101) ¥6.71 billion ($60.2 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
47 (102) ¥6.70 billion ($61.1 million) - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
47 (102) ¥6.70 billion ($61.8 million) - The Matrix Revolutions (2003)
49 (106) ¥6.57 billion ($58.6 million) - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (2018)
50 (113) ¥6.36 billion ($64.8 million) - Pokemon: Revelation Lugia (1999)


Note 1: All-Time Ranks in (Parenthesis)
Note 2: Most films released before 1998 have estimated USD ($) totals.


Frozen II became the highest grossing animated sequel last week, beating Toy Story 3. It will end up as the third highest grossing overall sequel when it concludes its run.

And this list also shows that Japan is very much an original film market when it comes to box-office success--in terms of blockbusters/uber-blockbusters--since only two sequels/prequels make the All-Time Top 10 films (and they rank 8th and 9th) and only six make the All-Time Top 25 films.

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Sat Jan 11, 2020 7:26 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/11-12/13)
In your earlier projection which shows that Frozen 2 will end up around $130M, you already applied harsh drop for it starting from this week yet?

Have ticket inflation and market growth happened (much) in Japan?
When people compare the performance of movies, they often talk about those 2 things.
I think Japan has already been a developed and old market for long time so those 2 thing rarely happened and the effect might be neglectable? Right?

And talking about sequel, we have Avatar 2. Jame Cameron will pull something like beautiful underwater scence, but do you think it is enough to create the same scale in effect as the first one (the first one had the very new 3d factor at that time and it contributed very much in its box office success). The first one number 15.6B yen, do you think Avatar 2 can replicate it?


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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/11-12/13)
What do you think about Japan Academy Prize nomination?


Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:58 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (01/11-12)
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Weekend Actuals (01/11-12)
01 (---) ¥362,435,300 ($3.3 million), 0, ¥461,549,800 ($4.2 million), Kaiji: Final Game (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥344,856,200 ($3.1 million), -30%, ¥11,993,131,400 ($109.9 million), Frozen II (Disney) WK8
03 (02) ¥331,229,410 ($3.0 million), -32%, ¥5,948,781,990 ($54.4 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) WK4
04 (---) ¥193,593,940 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥244,824,850 ($2.2 million), Ford v. Ferrari (Fox) NEW
05 (---) ¥140,059,660 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥224,404,860 ($2.0 million), Parasite (Bitter's End) NEW
06 (03) ¥x95,913,050 ($872,000), -43%, ¥1,035,321,020 ($9.6 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san! (Shochiku) WK3
07 (04) ¥x72,909,050 ($663,000), -25%, ¥1,323,255,050 ($12.0 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) WK4
08 (05) ¥x46,463,710 ($424,000), -32%, ¥824,085,910 ($7.6 million), Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei) WK4
09 (06) ¥x40,195,200 ($366,000), -40%, ¥977,920,050 ($9.0 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) WK4
10 (08) ¥x36,011,600 ($327,000), -36%, ¥1,075,222,800 ($9.9 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) WK6


>Kaiji: Final Game managed to narrowly, but impressively, debut atop the box-office in revenue (it ranked second in admissions), selling 248,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 333 screens; it sold 436,745 admissions over its first four-days in release. This debut is 3% higher than the previous film, released way back in 2011. Expect a total between ¥1.5-2.0 billion ($15-20 million).

>Frozen II drops to second place (though remained #1 in admissions), selling an additional 265,000 admissions in its eighth-weekend of release. The film has now sold an incredible 9.55 million admissions after 53-days in release. So, does this weekend give is a better idea of where this sequel is headed? Mostly. It's still doing big enough numbers that varying percentage changes week-to-week can change its trajectory a good deal, but a total between ¥14-15 billion ($130-140 million) remains its likely final range.

>Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker settles for third place, selling a further 221,000 admissions, bringing its 25-day admissions up to 4.07 million. Its hold this weekend was good, but it'll need to experience a couple slightly better holds in the upcoming weeks if it wants to beat Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Its tracking somewhat similarly with its predecessor, so look for a finish around ¥7.5 billion ($70 million) again.

>Ford v. Ferrari debuted in fourth place, selling a solid 132,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 500 screens. I imagine legs will be pretty good, so it should manage to reach the ¥1 billion ($10 million) milestone.

>Parasite rounded out the Top 5 in its debut weekend, and it was an impressive debut indeed. The award-winning favorite sold 101,000 admissions over the weekend frame across just 131 screens; it has sold 200,141 admissions after its first four-days in release plus limited previews last year. Expect this one to hold strong for several weeks to come due to its award recognition, especially if it manages to win any of the big awards at the Academy Awards. A Best Picture win would go a long, long way. I'd be surprised if it misses ¥1 billion ($10 million).

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Grossing Films: 2019
Almost finalized, probably just another week, maybe two.

2019 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥14.05 billion ($130.4 million) / 10.51 million [179] - Weathering With You (Toho)
¥12.16 billion ($112.0 million) / 8.55 million [F] - Aladdin (Disney)
¥10.08 billion ($94.2 million) / 7.82 million [F] - Toy Story 4 (Disney)

¥10 billion ↨
¥9.37 billion ($85.5 million) / 7.26 million [F] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho)
¥6.66 billion ($62.9 million) / 4.66 million [F] - The Lion King (Disney)
¥6.57 billion ($58.7 million) / 4.92 million [F] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.)
¥6.12 billion ($55.3 million) / 4.15 million [F] - Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
¥5.73 billion ($51.7 million) / 4.30 million [F] - Kingdom (Toho/Sony)
¥5.55 billion ($52.1 million) / 4.17 million [F] - One Piece: Stampede (Toei)
¥5.03 billion ($46.4 million) / 3.46 million [E] - Joker (Warner Bros.)
¥5.02 billion ($45.6 million) / 4.37 million [F] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho)

¥5 billion ↨
¥4.64 billion ($42.2 million) / 3.60 million [F] - Masquerade Hotel (Toho)
¥4.00 billion ($36.0 million) / 3.07 million [F] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥3.86 billion ($35.0 million) / 3.10 million [F] - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
¥3.76 billion ($34.0 million) / 2.90 million [F] - Tonde Saitama (Toei)
¥3.60 billion ($33.2 million) / 2.81 million [F] - Hit Me Anyone One More Time (Toho)
¥3.06 billion ($28.7 million) / 2.13 million [F] - Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (Toho-Towa)
¥3.04 billion ($28.0 million) / 2.10 million [F] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony)
¥3.01 billion ($27.6 million) / 2.12 million [F] - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.98 billion ($27.9 million) / 2.45 million [F] - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho)
¥2.97 billion ($27.2 million) / 2.25 million [F] - The Confidence Man JP (Toho)
¥2.84 billion ($26.2 million) / 1.95 million [F] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho)
¥2.60 billion ($24.3 million) / 1.90 million [F] - Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho)
¥2.33 billion ($21.3 million) / 1.71 million [E] - Terminator: Dark Fate (Fox)
¥2.20 billion ($20.3 million) / 1.79 million [E] - Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho)
¥2.16 billion ($19.5 million) / 1.73 million [F] - The Seven Conferences (Toho)
¥2.14 billion ($20.1 million) / 1.79 million [E] - The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa)
¥2.12 billion ($19.1 million) / 1.68 million [F] - Green Book (Gaga)
¥2.05 billion ($18.6 million) / 1.75 million [F] - Crayon Shin-chan: Hurricane Honeymoon, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho)
¥2.03 billion ($18.5 million) / 1.40 million [F] - Captain Marvel (Disney)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.89 billion ($17.8 million) / 1.48 million [E] - The Great War of Archimedes (Toho)
¥1.83 billion ($16.7 million) / 1.34 million [E] - It: Chapter Two (Warner Bros.)
¥1.80 billion ($16.6 million) / 1.18 million [E] - Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku)
¥1.75 billion ($16.0 million) / 1.31 million [F] - The Fable (Toho)
¥1.67 billion ($15.0 million) / 1.07 million [F] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
¥1.63 billion ($14.7 million) / 1.11 million [E] - Aquaman (Warner Bros.)
¥1.55 billion ($13.9 million) / 1.27 million [E] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei)
¥1.52 billion ($13.7 million) / 1.20 million [E] - 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.)
¥1.50 billion ($13.6 million) / 1.03 million [E] - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex)
¥1.48 billion ($13.4 million) / 1.10 million [F] - A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
¥1.43 billion ($13.1 million) / 1.05 million [E] - Promare (Toho)
¥1.40 billion ($12.7 million) / 1.16 million [67] - Sumikko Gurashi: The Pop-Up Book and the Mystery Child (Toho)
¥1.40 billion ($12.7 million) / 1.05 million [E] - Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (Disney)
¥1.39 billion ($12.9 million) / 1.02 million [E] - Dragon Quest: Your Story (Toho)
¥1.37 billion ($12.3 million) / 1.07 million [F] - Fortuna's Eye (Toho)
¥1.27 billion ($11.8 million) / 0.94 million [E] - No Longer Human (Shochiku/Asmik Ace)
¥1.27 billion ($11.5 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)
¥1.25 billion ($11.4 million) / 1.12 million [F] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥1.22 billion ($11.2 million) / 0.89 million [E] - The Diner (Warner Bros.)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.86 million [E] - Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
¥1.11 billion ($10.4 million) / 0.80 million [E] - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
¥1.11 billion ($10.1 million) / 0.89 million [E] - Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films)
¥1.11 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.71 million [E] - Love Live! The School Idol Movie - Over the Rainbow (Shochiku)
¥1.07 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.86 million [E] - Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer (Toei)
¥1.06 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.86 million [E] - Samurai Shifters (Shochiku)
¥1.06 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.83 million [E] - A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Shochiku)
¥1.05 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.84 million [E] - Snow Flower (Warner Bros.)
¥1.04 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.89 million [E] - You Shine in Moonlight (Toho)
¥1.01 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.70 million [E] - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Shochiku)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

_________________
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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Opening Weekends: 2020
Top Opening Weekends: 2020
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1.037 billion ($9.5 million) / 671,000 [962] - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney)
¥1 billion ↨
¥500 million ↨
¥362.4 million ($1.3 million) / 248,000 [333] - Kaiji: Final Game (Toho)
¥300 million ↨
¥283.0 million ($2.6 million) / 224,000 [313] - My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho)
¥248.6 million ($2.3 million) / 195,939 [328] - Kamen Rider Reiwa: The First Generation (Toei)
¥244.8 million ($2.2 million) / 177,000 [389] - Lupin III: The First (Toho)

¥200 million ↨
¥193.5 million ($1.8 million) / 132,000 [500] - Ford v. Ferrari (Fox)
¥187.4 million ($1.7 million) / 130,000 [655] - Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony)
¥164.6 million ($1.5 million) / 125,000 [311] - Murder at Shijinso (Toho)
¥144.7 million ($1.3 million) / 121,000 [255] - Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku)
¥140.1 million ($1.3 million) / 101,000 [131] - Parasite (Bitter's End)
¥132.4 million ($1.2 million) / 117,747 [347] - Yo-Kai Watch: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho)
¥125.0 million ($1.2 million) / 100,000 [353] - Welcome Back, Tora-San! (Shochiku)

¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:13 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Grossing Films: 2020
Top Grossing Films: 2020
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥12.20 billion ($111.7 million) / 9.55 million [53] - Frozen II (Disney)
¥10 billion ↨
¥6.11 billion ($55.8 million) / 4.07 million [25] - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney)
¥5 billion ↨
¥3 billion ↨
¥2 billion ↨
¥1.37 billion ($12.4 million) / 1.09 million [25] - My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho)
¥1.10 billion ($10.1 million) / 0.83 million [39] - Lupin III: The First (Toho)
¥1.09 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.89 million [18] - Welcome Back, Tora-san! (Shochiku)
¥1.09 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.88 million [39] - Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

Note: This Week's Cumulative Totals Are As of Monday, January 13th.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Last edited by Corpse on Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Thu Jan 16, 2020 6:13 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/11-12/13)
Danhjpn wrote:
In your earlier projection which shows that Frozen 2 will end up around $130M, you already applied harsh drop for it starting from this week yet?

Have ticket inflation and market growth happened (much) in Japan?
When people compare the performance of movies, they often talk about those 2 things.
I think Japan has already been a developed and old market for long time so those 2 thing rarely happened and the effect might be neglect-able? Right?

And talking about sequel, we have Avatar 2. Jame Cameron will pull something like beautiful underwater scence, but do you think it is enough to create the same scale in effect as the first one (the first one had the very new 3d factor at that time and it contributed very much in its box office success). The first one number 15.6B yen, do you think Avatar 2 can replicate it?


I still expect $130 million or so for Frozen II.

Japan has gone with very little inflation in the past 30 years, and ticket prices have remained largely the same. Ticket prices have been increasing year-on-year in recent years, but the increase has been minimal. You can reliably, and accurately compare films to one another if they were released in the past 25-30 years.

That said, I believe that 2019 will be the cut-off year for such comparisons since the the average ticket price has steadily increased over the past five years or so, no longer remaining stagnant.

I don't expect Avatar 2 to match the success of the original.

pookpooi wrote:
What do you think about Japan Academy Prize nomination?


I'll go over these in the coming days, maybe even tomorrow. At a glance, nothing too crazy, though I am a bit surprised Promare missed out on a Best Animated Picture nomination.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/1
Looking forward to your estimate for this weekend...


Fri Jan 17, 2020 12:46 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/17-18)
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Weekend Forecast (01/18-19)
01 (02) ¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), -33%, ¥12,605,000,000 ($115.5 million), Frozen II (Disney) WK9
02 (01) ¥224,000,000 ($2.0 million), -38%, ¥1,100,000,000 ($10.0 million), Kaiji: Final Game (Toho) WK2
03 (03) ¥213,000,000 ($1.9 million), -36%, ¥6,550,000,000 ($59.9 million), Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Disney) WK5
04 (05) ¥154,000,000 ($1.4 million), +10%, ¥620,000,000 ($5.6 million), Parasite (Bitter's End) WK2
05 (---) ¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), Last Letter (Toho) NEW
06 (04) ¥126,000,000 ($1.1 million), -35%, ¥595,000,000 ($5.4 million), Ford v. Ferrari (Fox) WK2
07 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($905,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($0.9 million), High School Fleet: The Movie (Aniplex) NEW
08 (---) ¥x80,000,000 ($725,000), 0, ¥110,000,000 ($1.0 million), The Memory Eraser (Shochiku) NEW
09 (---) ¥x75,000,000 ($680,000), 0, ¥100,000,000 ($0.9 million), Made in Abyss: Dawn of the Deep Soul (Kadokawa) NEW
10 (06) ¥x56,000,000 ($510,000), -42%, ¥1,250,000,000 ($11.5 million), Welcome Back, Tora-san! (Shochiku) WK4
11 (07) ¥x53,000,000 ($480,000), -27%, ¥1,470,000,000 ($13.3 million), My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising (Toho) WK5


Interesting weekend ahead in regard to which film will come out on top, and in overall Top 10 ranking. If I predicted the Top 10 ranking correctly, I'll be shocked.

>Frozen II, Kaiji: Final Game, and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will be battling it out in the Top 3. All three films were close last weekend with Kaiji debuting in 1st in revenue but Frozen II being 1st in admissions, but Star Wars wasn't far behind either film. Kaiji will probably have the bigger drop this weekend, while Frozen II should have the better hold, so I'm going with Frozen II winning the weekend. But it's going to be close.

And speaking of Frozen II... Unless it has a better hold than I'm predicting (it really needs a 20/25% decline), we can likely rule out it reaching the ¥15 billion ($140 million) milestone after this weekend. It's been holding fine post the holidays, but not good enough. Meaning, it'll be on course for ¥14 billion ($130 million) and make the showdown between it and Weathering With You a nail bitter for sure.

>Parasite, unsurprisingly, is targeting either a very strong hold, as in sub-10%, or a possible small increase which I'm predicting. Reviews are strong, audience scores are high, and the film was released after winning many awards and then being nominated for six Oscars. It's going to thrive for several weeks to come.

>Last Letter will be the top debut this weekend (unless one of the limited anime films has an unknown fan greeting event I'm not aware of that really boosts their attendance and ticket prices), but won't open to anything remarkable. It's just that time of year with plenty of mediocre openers.

>High School Fleet and Made in Abyss: Dawn of the Deep Soul are both limited release anime films, which are always difficult to predict. They tend to have dedicated fanbases, and as such, their average ticket prices are typically very high, so I'm treating both of them as I would any other limited anime release.

>My Hero Academia: Heroes Rising will probably fall outside the Top 10 this weekend, but I'm going to include it here just in case it manages to hang on. And because it's receiving a 4DX expansion next weekend which could keep it in the Top 10 for another weekend.

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Wakanda Forever


Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:55 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/18-19)


And I thought I'd mention that Weathering With You opened in the U.S. on Wednesday and debuted at #2 with $1,586,214 in 1,020 theaters. And it remained #2 on Thursday grossing $1,445,534, bringing its two-day total up to $3,039,961.



Your Name. grossed $5,017,246 for comparison, so it appears that Weathering With You will surpass it in the States.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:07 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND (01/18-19); Weathering's U.S. Deb
I hope that $130M milestone wont be lower again...


Sat Jan 18, 2020 1:48 am
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