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 Japan Box Office (& More): Video Game Sales (06/22-28) 
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/0
Just watch the next detective conan trailer, I begin to see the pattern. They'll select one handsome minor character as the main focus of each film.


Thu Dec 05, 2019 7:47 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/0
R136a1 wrote:
Maybe I'm being a bit conservative, but I am still predicting a 10x multiplier or lower for Frozen II (¥15-16 billion) even after the insane first two weekends it's had. After seeing how Toy Story 4 failed to get even an 8x multiplier in the best release slot for an animated film (mid-July), I'm not getting my hopes up too high.

But Toy Story didn't have musical factor?
I mean I think in South Korea and Japan, musical factor can play an important role in building good legs?


Last edited by Danhjpn on Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.



Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:39 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/0
Toy Story 4 also had a very inflated OW (true OW would have been 15% lower under normal conditions) as well as one of the highest anticipated local animated products ever opening right after it. Also, all summer releases had relatively weak legs this year to be honest.

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Thu Dec 05, 2019 8:49 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/0
Is there any website where I can check the total gross of movie so far in Japan?


Thu Dec 05, 2019 11:38 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/0
So how much dollars and admissions can we expect by Sunday for frozen 2 ? And when winter holidays (what day and how long do they last) start in Japan ?


Thu Dec 05, 2019 12:38 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/0
LPLC wrote:
So how much dollars and admissions can we expect by Sunday for frozen 2 ? And when winter holidays (what day and how long do they last) start in Japan ?


Frozen II should be at ¥5.8/5.9 billion ($53/54 million) after Sunday. Its third weekend looks headed for a 30% or so decline (right around ¥1 billion), which is fine considering how strong its second weekend was, and expected given last Sunday was a national discount ticket day.

There's not really a "Winter Break/Holiday" in Japan. New Year's Eve and New Year's Day begin what's simply called "New Year Week", where all schools and business are closed from January 1st-3rd (known as the "Bank Holidays"). The last few days (last couple in December) leading up to New Year's Day tend to be a little stronger than normal, but not of holiday strength. Still, the week is one of the three strongest for the box-office in the market.

For 2020, that means Wednesday-Friday (Jan. 01-03) will be very strong, especially Wednesday, and will probably double or even triple the neighboring weekend grosses. The following weekend (Jan. 04-05) will also be quite strong. January 6th onward will be back to normal.

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Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:20 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/0
Danhjpn wrote:
Is there any website where I can check the total gross of movie so far in Japan?


If you mean a site similar to BoxOfficeMojo or The Numbers, then no. Eiren.org has all the yearly data and such, but there isn't a "tracking" website out there, exactly. Eiga.com and others like it post the weekend ranking and analysis every week, but only highlight a couple films in the Top 10.

If you're looking for daily estimates/actuals, which I presume, I post those during holiday weeks. Depending on the individual film, weekdays behave drastically different for them, so I don't think most will understand the dailies very much. One animated film isn't going to act like another animated film, one action film isn't going to perform like another action film, etc. Some films have a 90% female share, some have an 80% under 10-year-old share, and some are seen by a 95% share of males between 30-50-years-old... There's a lot of extremes.

I''m not talking a few percentage points either, but rather day-to-day/week-to-week decreases (or even increases) that could vary 40%, 50%, or more (even thousands of % on certain days) between two seemingly comparable films, when they just aren't. There's a lot of variables to consider in the market, and the perception of most will be inaccurate and will require a lot of daily explanation.

I don't want to brag too much, but this thread is the best out there, with the exception of the box office discussion threads on 2chan (in Japanese). This thread and the threads on 2chan are quite similar though, except there's way more discussion to be found there. But, I post more charts and lists, forecasts, estimates, etc.. The guys on 2chan are mostly nice, and will reference my thread pretty often for the charts (explaining the views, I believe), but they're not interested in joining, be it international server issues or just lack of English-language skills.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Sat Dec 07, 2019 4:28 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/0
Anything above $150M/¥16.5B finish is a major win for Elsa and this time.


Sun Dec 08, 2019 12:26 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Third Weekends
I'm estimating that Frozen II gross around ¥950 million ($8.7 million) over its third weekend, bringing its total a little shy of ¥6 billion (¥5.8/5.9 billion or so). This will be a drop of 34% or so, which is a little high, but not surprising since its second weekend was inflated a good bit since last Sunday was a discount day.

Biggest Third Weekends/Three Week Totals (2000-):

¥1.205 billion, -23%, ¥6.73 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥1.196 billion, -15%, ¥6.67 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥1.134 billion, -02%, ¥6.29 billion - Your Name. (2016)
¥1.078 billion, +05%, ¥5.89 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥1.012 billion, -16%, ¥6.78 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥998.9 million, -21%, ¥5.86 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥995.9 million, -09%, ¥5.52 billion - Aladdin (2019)
¥950.0 million, -34%, ¥5.85 billion - Frozen II (2019) *Est.*
¥935.7 million, -20%, ¥6.13 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥893.1 million, -20%, ¥6.69 billion - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥890.0 million, -09%, ¥7.22 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥881.2 million, +01%, ¥5.28 billion - Frozen (2014)
¥848.1 million, -22%, ¥4.98 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥826.7 million, +14%, ¥6.40 billion - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
¥799.6 million, -24%, ¥4.86 billion - Rookies (2009)
¥776.5 million, -05%, ¥5.26 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥772.9 million, -30%, ¥6.37 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥719.7 million, -23%, ¥5.95 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥718.1 million, -29%, ¥5.91 billion - Weathering With You (2019)
¥710.3 million, -13%, ¥4.91 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥692.4 million, -37%, ¥5.03 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥683.5 million, -34%, ¥5.18 billion - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥665.4 million, +30%, ¥4.14 billion - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥636.9 million, -06%, ¥4.67 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥628.2 million, -27%, ¥5.51 billion - Toy Story 4 (2019)
¥624.6 million, -27%, ¥4.59 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥618.0 million, -30%, ¥4.73 billion - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
¥614.2 million, -19%, ¥4.92 billion - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
¥613.3 million, -12%, ¥5.22 billion - Code Blue (2018)
¥605.9 million, -26%, ¥4.36 billion - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
¥597.5 million, -37%, ¥5.95 billion - Jurassic World (2015)
¥585.6 million, -22%, ¥3.79 billion - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
¥584.5 million, -15%, ¥4.68 billion - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥580.4 million, -23%, ¥3.79 billion - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
¥574.1 million, -19%, ¥3.55 billion - Umizaru: The Limit of Love (2006)
¥562.2 million, -17%, ¥3.70 billion - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
¥559.1 million, -54%, ¥3.68 billion - Spider-Man (2002)
¥555.6 million, -31%, ¥4.36 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥548.8 million, -09%, ¥3.98 billion - Arrietty (2010)
¥547.1 million, -13%, ¥3.44 billion - Monsters University (2013)
¥540.6 million, -22%, ¥4.42 billion - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
¥538.4 million, -09%, ¥2.84 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥536.5 million, -20%, ¥3.66 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (2010)
¥536.2 million, -26%, ¥3.88 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥533.8 million, -14%, ¥4.75 billion - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
¥531.7 million, +46%, ¥3.20 billion - The Eternal Zero (2013)
¥525.2 million, -22%, ¥5.31 billion - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
¥522.0 million, -09%, ¥2.79 billion - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥515.5 million, -12%, ¥3.77 billion - Tales from Earthsea (2006)
¥511.1 million, -28%, ¥5.22 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥506.2 million, -18%, ¥5.42 billion - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
¥506.1 million, -39%, ¥4.48 billion - Hero (2007)
¥504.8 million, -01%, ¥3.18 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)


Note: I may go back and add USD figures for this list in the near future.

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Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:38 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/0
I'll be on a short trip over the next few days, and won't be able to post or update anything until Wednesday or Thursday (probably Thursday).

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:40 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/0
Corpse wrote:
I'll be on a short trip over the next few days, and won't be able to post or update anything until Wednesday or Thursday (probably Thursday).

What is your lifetime prediction now for F2?


Sun Dec 08, 2019 8:58 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/0
Thanks to Olive from BOT for the numbers.

Weekend Actuals (Dec 7-8)
¥1.033 billion -28.6%
776,000 admissions
Total crossed ¥6 billion

That would make Frozen II the 5th biggest 3rd weekend on your list.


Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:58 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/0
Hello everyone, I wanted to know if these weekdays and weekend box office frozen 2 looks good or no and are bad sign or no for a leggy performance and a performance about $180M in Japan like said Corpse ? Did your opinion about box office frozen 2 In Japan change ? (How much dollars and admissions for final cume in Japan now ?) How much admissions and dollars can we expect by next Sunday and by the end of one of the 3 big weeks for Japan box office by 6-7th January through Christmas ? I also wanted to know if during Christmas period (20 December - 10 January), we can expect better legs and better drops (even increase) during week days and week ends. Finally I'm French and a French movie named "Nicky Larson" was released in Japan last week, how much this French movie made during his opening weekend and how much dollars and admissions this French movie can do in Japan ?


Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:11 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/0
So, I took a few extra days on vacation, but I'm back now. I'll have tons of chart updates tomorrow, including last weekend's actuals.

And because I know it'll be one of the first things asked, Frozen II played very well in its fourth weekend, dropping under 20% based on estimates. I'll actually go ahead and post the Biggest Third Weekend Chart (thanks R136a1 for sharing the actual with everyone), and the Biggest Fourth Weekend Chart (with the estimate) to give everyone something to check out before tomorrow evening's slew of posts.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:12 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/0
LPLC wrote:
Hello everyone, I wanted to know if these weekdays and weekend box office frozen 2 looks good or no and are bad sign or no for a leggy performance and a performance about $180M in Japan like said Corpse ? Did your opinion about box office frozen 2 In Japan change ? (How much dollars and admissions for final cume in Japan now ?) How much admissions and dollars can we expect by next Sunday and by the end of one of the 3 big weeks for Japan box office by 6-7th January through Christmas ? I also wanted to know if during Christmas period (20 December - 10 January), we can expect better legs and better drops (even increase) during week days and week ends. Finally I'm French and a French movie named "Nicky Larson" was released in Japan last week, how much this French movie made during his opening weekend and how much dollars and admissions this French movie can do in Japan ?


Most of this will be covered in tomorrow's posts.

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Japan Box Office
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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:14 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Third Weekends
Biggest Third Weekends/Three Week Totals (2000-):

¥1.205 billion, -23%, ¥6.73 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥1.196 billion, -15%, ¥6.67 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥1.134 billion, -02%, ¥6.29 billion - Your Name. (2016)
¥1.078 billion, +05%, ¥5.89 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥1.033 billion, -29%, ¥6.01 billion - Frozen II (2019)
¥1.012 billion, -16%, ¥6.78 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥998.9 million, -21%, ¥5.86 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥995.9 million, -09%, ¥5.52 billion - Aladdin (2019)
¥935.7 million, -20%, ¥6.13 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥893.1 million, -20%, ¥6.69 billion - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥890.0 million, -09%, ¥7.22 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥881.2 million, +01%, ¥5.28 billion - Frozen (2014)
¥848.1 million, -22%, ¥4.98 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥826.7 million, +14%, ¥6.40 billion - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
¥799.6 million, -24%, ¥4.86 billion - Rookies (2009)
¥776.5 million, -05%, ¥5.26 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥772.9 million, -30%, ¥6.37 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥719.7 million, -23%, ¥5.95 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥718.1 million, -29%, ¥5.91 billion - Weathering With You (2019)
¥710.3 million, -13%, ¥4.91 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥692.4 million, -37%, ¥5.03 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥683.5 million, -34%, ¥5.18 billion - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥665.4 million, +30%, ¥4.14 billion - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥636.9 million, -06%, ¥4.67 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥628.2 million, -27%, ¥5.51 billion - Toy Story 4 (2019)
¥624.6 million, -27%, ¥4.59 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥618.0 million, -30%, ¥4.73 billion - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
¥614.2 million, -19%, ¥4.92 billion - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
¥613.3 million, -12%, ¥5.22 billion - Code Blue (2018)
¥605.9 million, -26%, ¥4.36 billion - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
¥597.5 million, -37%, ¥5.95 billion - Jurassic World (2015)
¥585.6 million, -22%, ¥3.79 billion - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
¥584.5 million, -15%, ¥4.68 billion - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥580.4 million, -23%, ¥3.79 billion - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
¥574.1 million, -19%, ¥3.55 billion - Umizaru: The Limit of Love (2006)
¥562.2 million, -17%, ¥3.70 billion - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
¥559.1 million, -54%, ¥3.68 billion - Spider-Man (2002)
¥555.6 million, -31%, ¥4.36 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥548.8 million, -09%, ¥3.98 billion - Arrietty (2010)
¥547.1 million, -13%, ¥3.44 billion - Monsters University (2013)
¥540.6 million, -22%, ¥4.42 billion - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
¥538.4 million, -09%, ¥2.84 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥536.5 million, -20%, ¥3.66 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (2010)
¥536.2 million, -26%, ¥3.88 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥533.8 million, -14%, ¥4.75 billion - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009)
¥531.7 million, +46%, ¥3.20 billion - The Eternal Zero (2013)
¥525.2 million, -22%, ¥5.31 billion - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
¥522.0 million, -09%, ¥2.79 billion - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥515.5 million, -12%, ¥3.77 billion - Tales from Earthsea (2006)
¥511.1 million, -28%, ¥5.22 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥506.2 million, -18%, ¥5.42 billion - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
¥506.1 million, -39%, ¥4.48 billion - Hero (2007)
¥504.8 million, -01%, ¥3.18 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)


Note: I may go back and add USD figures for this list in the near future.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:16 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Fourth Weekends
Biggest Fourth Weekends/Four Week Totals (2000-):

¥1.076 billion, -05%, ¥8.53 billion - Your Name. (2016)
¥972.2 million, -19%, ¥8.43 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥953.2 million, -06%, ¥8.45 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥940.0 million, +06%, ¥10.75 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥922.9 million, -21%, ¥8.13 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥879.2 million, -12%, ¥7.22 billion - Aladdin (2019)
¥850.9 million, -04%, ¥7.71 billion - Frozen (2014)
¥847.0 million, -18%, ¥7.40 billion - Frozen II (2019) *Est.*
¥765.7 million, +07%, ¥7.20 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥755.2 million, -03%, ¥7.21 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥733.5 million, -27%, ¥7.11 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥683.5 million, -27%, ¥7.45 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥657.9 million, -05%, ¥6.23 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥645.2 million, -17%, ¥7.51 billion - Weathering With You (2019)
¥619.6 million, -25%, ¥8.24 billion - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
¥618.6 million, -23%, ¥6.02 billion - Rookies (2009)
¥617.1 million, +15%, ¥5.41 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥604.4 million, -22%, ¥7.55 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥587.1 million, -05%, ¥7.52 billion - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
¥575.3 million, -35%, ¥7.94 billion - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥565.4 million, -12%, ¥5.96 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥556.0 million, -34%, ¥5.91 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥551.7 million, -09%, ¥6.22 billion - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
¥546.1 million, -18%, ¥5.72 billion - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥543.9 million, -07%, ¥5.77 billion - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
¥542.8 million, +07%, ¥5.18 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥524.4 million, -26%, ¥6.15 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥521.6 million, -52%, ¥8.38 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥520.8 million, -01%, ¥3.83 billion - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)
¥519.9 million, +09%, ¥5.81 billion - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
¥518.5 million, -01%, ¥6.37 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥510.3 million, -07%, ¥5.60 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥510.1 million, -20%, ¥5.93 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥503.4 million, -09%, ¥4.19 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥501.2 million, -27%, ¥6.26 billion - The Da Vinci Code (2006)


Note: I may go back and add USD figures for this list in the near future.

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Japan Box Office
Goodreads


“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:21 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: I'm Back (Tons of Updates Tomorrow)
Monday (16th Dec) is seeing a 46% drop (at noon) from last week !!!!
Is this week (16th Dec to 22th Dec) an exam week in Japan???
And Star Wars 9 incoming this weeekend !!!!
This thing may finish at below $150M !!!!


Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:42 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: I'm Back (Tons of Updates Tomorrow)
Yeah, they're this week.

Japan School Year:

1st Term: Beginning of April - Middle of July
Summer Vacation: End of July - End of August
2nd Term: Beginning of September - End of December
3rd Term: Second Week of January - End of March

Each term has mid-term exams and final exams, with the exception of the third term which only has final exams since it's the shortest term of the year.

But don't worry about Star Wars of all films hurting Frozen. Star Wars is heavily fan-driven, and will have little impact on anything.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:57 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: I'm Back (Tons of Updates Tomorrow)
Corpse wrote:
Yeah, they're this week.

Japan School Year:

1st Term: Beginning of April - Middle of July
Summer Vacation: End of July - End of August
2nd Term: Beginning of September - End of December
3rd Term: Second Week of January - End of March

Each term has mid-term exams and final exams, with the exception of the third term which only has final exams since it's the shortest term of the year.

But don't worry about Star Wars of all films hurting Frozen. Star Wars is heavily fan-driven, and will have little impact on anything.


If so, then can we expect a (big) bump on next week? (23th Dec to 29th Dec)...
Also, you think what will be the drop for Frozen 2 this weekend (SW9 debut). Fantastic Beast dropped 45% when Rouge One debut !!!


Last edited by Danhjpn on Mon Dec 16, 2019 3:13 am, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Dec 16, 2019 1:20 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: I'm Back (Tons of Updates Tomorrow)
Nah. its gonna be off the theaters by then.

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Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:01 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: I'm Back (Tons of Updates Tomorrow)
Danhjpn wrote:
Monday (16th Dec) is seeing a 46% drop (at noon) from last week !!!!

This thing may finish at below $150M !!!!


Monday ended up just 25% down from last Monday. Let this be a reminder not to freak out over early morning/noon results on Mimorin. There can be great fluctuations throughout the day.


Mon Dec 16, 2019 10:23 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: I'm Back (Tons of Updates Tomorrow)
In short: Don't worry too much about Frozen II. The November release always meant it wasn't going to have phenomenal legs due to regular weekdays up until late-December, but it's still delivering where it needs to over the weekends at the moment, and will surely enjoy a big New Year boost in a couple weeks.

¥20 billion is looking more difficult now, though, but since it wasn't expected to reach that milestone, I wouldn't consider a total below that mark as disappointing. ¥15 billion is pretty much the milestone it should have been aiming for before opening, and it's still on track do so, and I doubt it has much trouble doing so.

A lot of updates will be posted over the next few hours, including last weekend's actuals and the first of the 2020 charts.

If you guys would, can you please wait a little bit before posting anything until they're all up? I usually work on everything all at once, so my posts will come quickly one after the other, and I like to have the weekly chart updates posted together (easier to look them up later on). A lot of your questions are likely to be answered somewhere among them.

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Mon Dec 16, 2019 6:04 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (December)
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Weekend Actuals (12/07-08)
01 (01) ¥1,032,954,000 ($9.4 million), -29%, ¥6,014,468,600 ($55.0 million), Frozen II (Disney) WK2
02 (---) ¥244,827,850 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥307,395,900 ($2.8 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) NEW
03 (---) ¥144,777,900 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥194,913,000 ($1.8 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) NEW
04 (03) ¥x84,865,000 ($776,000), -35%, ¥981,897,800 ($8.9 million), Sumikko Gurashi: The Pop-Up Book and the Mystery Child (Asmik Ace) WK5
05 (02) ¥x76,717,200 ($701,000), -42%, ¥829,361,300 ($7.6 million), The 47 Ronin in Debt! (Shochiku) WK3
06 (04) ¥x62,824,950 ($574,000), -47%, ¥2,212,089,500 ($20.3 million), Terminator: Dark Fate (Fox) WK5
07 (05) ¥x51,819,150 ($474,000), -45%, ¥255,927,300 ($2.3 million), Doctor Sleep (Warner Bros.) WK2
08 (09) ¥x43,251,500 ($395,000), +32%, ¥667,463,980 ($6.1 million), Saekano: How to Raise a Boring Girlfriend (Aniplex) WK7
09 (06) ¥x42,698,900 ($390,000), -37%, ¥1,756,878,450 ($16.1 million), It: Chapter Two (Warner Bros.) WK6
10 (08) ¥x27,413,200 ($251,000), -23%, ¥109,990,000 ($1.0 million), Nicky Larson et le parfum de Cupidon (Albatros Film) WK2


________________________________________________________

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(C)2019 Disney. All Rights Reserved.

Weekend Actuals (12/14-15)
01 (01) ¥780,070,250 ($7.1 million), -26%, ¥7,336,780,250 ($67.1 million), Frozen II (Disney) WK4
02 (---) ¥187,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥236,886,700 ($2.2 million), Jumanji: The Next Level (Sony) NEW
03 (---) ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥219,966,550 ($2.0 million), Murder at Shijinso (Toho) NEW
04 (02) ¥141,045,550 ($1.3 million), -42%, ¥591,379,500 ($5.4 million), Lupin III: The First (Toho) WK2
05 (---) ¥132,419,750 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥132,419,750 ($1.2 million), Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? (Toho) NEW
06 (03) ¥115,982,200 ($1.1 million), -19%, ¥431,994,800 ($3.9 million), Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight (Shochiku) WK2
07 (---) ¥x60,000,000 ($550,000), 0, ¥x78,173,150 ($0.7 million), Taking the Pictures (Toei) NEW
08 (04) ¥x59,093,200 ($540,000), -30%, ¥1,071,269,100 ($9.7 million), Sumikko Gurashi: The Pop-Up Book and the Mystery Child (Asmik Ace) WK6
09 (05) ¥x44,317,650 ($405,000), -42%, ¥958,181,450 ($8.7 million), The 47 Ronin in Debt! (Shochiku) WK4
10 (---) ¥x30,000,000 ($275,000), 0, ¥x30,000,000 ($0.3 million), Shaun the Sheep: Farmageddon (Star Channel Movies) NEW



Double Weekend Analysis:

Nothing very exciting to really report on over the last couple of weekends, unfortunately:

>Frozen II continues to its effortless reign atop the box-office, and while Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will dethrone it (probably...) next week, it's likely to regain the #1 spot not long after.

I know it's been out for a month now, but it's still too early, especially with New Year still to come, to give an accurate prediction of where it's headed. The likely range remains between ¥15-20 billion ($140-180 million), but given its good but not great holds recently, a total on the lower-end of that range is looking more likely at the moment, but never rule out the boost that a major holiday week like New Year can provide.


OPENERS:

>Lupin III: The First debuted in second place, though its opening comes in a bit lower than expected. The first 3DCG-animated film featuring the famous Lupin III sold 177,000 admissions over the weekend on 389 screens; and selling 221,454 admissions since opening on Friday. I don't expect legs to be too good either, so a total of ¥1.5 billion ($15 million) could be the ceiling here.

Other than Stand By Me, Doraemon back in 2014, Japanese audiences haven't really taken to seeing their popular animated characters in 3DCG, and Lupin III is just the latest example. Based on the box-office results, and often the critical reception, I'm not seeing this 3DCG trend continuing for much longer (Pokemon is already switching back to 2D next year).

>Kiss Me at the Stroke of Midnight opened decently in third place, opening with 121,000 admissions sold over the weekend on 255 screens; and selling 159,000 admissions since opening on Friday. This is a fair debut, and romantic films almost always achieve great legs in December, so expect a total above ¥1 billion ($10 million) despite the "low" opening.

>Jumanji: The Next Level debuts in a very distant second place, selling 130,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 655 screens; and selling 164,765 admissions since Friday. This opening is 31% below its predecessor, and it's unlikely to reach the ¥1 billion ($9/10 million) milestone.

>Murder at Shijinso opened in third place, but couldn't generate much interest, selling 125,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 311 screens; and selling 166,684 admissions since Friday. This isn't a bad debut, exactly, and this could be the sort of film that develops strong legs, but it's certainly a slow start. It has the best chance of reaching the ¥1 billion ($9/10 million) milestone among the December 14/15 openers, but it's no guarantee.

>Yo-Kai Watch Jam: Yo-Kai Academy Y - Can a Cat be a Hero? debuted in a disappointing fifth place, selling 117,747 admissions over the weekend on 347 screens. This is the sixth-entry in the Yo-Kai Watch film franchise, and it continues the major downward spiral the series has experienced since it began. This year's film is down a whopping 48% versus last year's film, and will become the first film in the franchise to miss the ¥1 billion ($9/10 million) milestone. The rate at which this franchise has collapsed is something else.

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Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:49 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Grossing Films: 2019
2019 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥14.03 billion ($130.2 million) / 10.50 million [150] - Weathering With You (Toho)
¥12.14 billion ($111.8 million) / 8.54 million [E] - Aladdin (Disney)
¥10.07 billion ($94.2 million) / 7.82 million [E] - Toy Story 4 (Disney)

¥10 billion ↨
¥9.31 billion ($85.0 million) / 7.22 million [E] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho)
¥6.64 billion ($62.5 million) / 4.65 million [E] - The Lion King (Disney)
¥6.57 billion ($58.7 million) / 4.92 million [F] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.)
¥6.12 billion ($55.3 million) / 4.15 million [F] - Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
¥5.69 billion ($51.4 million) / 4.27 million [F] - Kingdom (Toho/Sony)
¥5.50 billion ($51.7 million) / 4.14 million [E] - One Piece: Stampede (Toei)
¥5.02 billion ($45.6 million) / 4.37 million [F] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho)

¥5 billion ↨
¥4.99 billion ($46.0 million) / 3.42 million [73] - Joker (Warner Bros.)
¥4.64 billion ($42.2 million) / 3.60 million [F] - Masquerade Hotel (Toho)
¥4.00 billion ($36.0 million) / 3.07 million [F] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥3.86 billion ($35.0 million) / 3.10 million [F] - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
¥3.76 billion ($34.0 million) / 2.90 million [F] - Tonde Saitama (Toei)
¥3.59 billion ($33.1 million) / 2.81 million [E] - Hit Me Anyone One More Time (Toho)
¥3.03 billion ($27.9 million) / 2.09 million [E] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony)
¥3.01 billion ($28.3 million) / 2.10 million [E] - Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw (Toho-Towa)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.97 billion ($27.2 million) / 2.09 million [F] - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho)
¥2.93 billion ($26.9 million) / 2.22 million [F] - The Confidence Man JP (Toho)
¥2.89 billion ($27.1 million) / 2.38 million [E] - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho)
¥2.79 billion ($25.8 million) / 1.92 million [E] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho)
¥2.58 billion ($24.2 million) / 1.89 million [E] - Ossan's Love: Love or Dead (Toho)
¥2.29 billion ($21.0 million) / 1.68 million [38] - Terminator: Dark Fate (Fox)
¥2.20 billion ($20.3 million) / 1.79 million [E] - Kaguya-sama: Love is War (Toho)
¥2.16 billion ($19.5 million) / 1.73 million [F] - The Seven Conferences (Toho)
¥2.14 billion ($20.1 million) / 1.79 million [E] - The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa)
¥2.12 billion ($19.1 million) / 1.68 million [F] - Green Book (Gaga)
¥2.05 billion ($18.6 million) / 1.75 million [F] - Crayon Shin-chan: Hurricane Honeymoon, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho)
¥2.03 billion ($18.5 million) / 1.40 million [F] - Captain Marvel (Disney)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.89 billion ($17.8 million) / 1.48 million [E] - The Great War of Archimedes (Toho)
¥1.80 billion ($16.5 million) / 1.32 million [45] - It: Chapter Two (Warner Bros.)
¥1.80 billion ($16.6 million) / 1.18 million [E] - Uta no Prince-sama The Movie: Maji LOVE Kingdom (Shochiku)
¥1.75 billion ($16.0 million) / 1.31 million [F] - The Fable (Toho)
¥1.67 billion ($15.0 million) / 1.07 million [F] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
¥1.63 billion ($14.7 million) / 1.11 million [E] - Aquaman (Warner Bros.)
¥1.55 billion ($13.9 million) / 1.27 million [E] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei)
¥1.52 billion ($13.7 million) / 1.20 million [E] - 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.)
¥1.50 billion ($13.6 million) / 1.03 million [E] - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex)
¥1.48 billion ($13.4 million) / 1.10 million [F] - A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
¥1.43 billion ($13.1 million) / 1.05 million [178] - Promare (Toho)
¥1.40 billion ($12.7 million) / 1.05 million [E] - Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (Disney)
¥1.39 billion ($12.9 million) / 1.02 million [E] - Dragon Quest: Your Story (Toho)
¥1.37 billion ($12.3 million) / 1.07 million [F] - Fortuna's Eye (Toho)
¥1.27 billion ($11.8 million) / 0.94 million [E] - No Longer Human (Shochiku/Asmik Ace)
¥1.27 billion ($11.5 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)
¥1.25 billion ($11.4 million) / 1.12 million [F] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥1.22 billion ($11.2 million) / 0.89 million [E] - The Diner (Warner Bros.)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.86 million [E] - Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
¥1.11 billion ($10.4 million) / 0.80 million [E] - Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Sony)
¥1.11 billion ($10.1 million) / 0.89 million [E] - Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films)
¥1.11 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.71 million [E] - Love Live! The School Idol Movie - Over the Rainbow (Shochiku)
¥1.07 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.86 million [E] - Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer (Toei)
¥1.07 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.89 million [38] - Sumikko Gurashi: The Pop-Up Book and the Mystery Child (Toho)
¥1.06 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.86 million [E] - Samurai Shifters (Shochiku)
¥1.06 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.83 million [E] - A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Shochiku)
¥1.05 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.84 million [E] - Snow Flower (Warner Bros.)
¥1.04 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.89 million [E] - You Shine in Moonlight (Toho)
¥1.01 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.70 million [E] - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Shochiku)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”


Last edited by Corpse on Mon Dec 16, 2019 8:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Dec 16, 2019 7:50 pm
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