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Japan Box-Office: On Hiatus
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Author:  Danhjpn [ Sat Nov 30, 2019 7:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (11/2
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Generally that means the movie is attracting young people

Hm..... but the rate has been already slowing down since 4pm-5pm, not since 8pm....
I think Saturday from 4pm to 8pm-9pm is the peak period for people to go to theater to see movie?
Author:  Corpse [ Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (11/2
It slowed down a bit, but nothing drastic. Sat-to-Sat is looking to be down just over 30%, which is good because Sun-to-Sun will likely be noticeably better (thinking 20% or so). So far, I don't see anything changing its expected 25-30% second weekend drop (it'll probably be closer to 25%).

I'll explain demographics and dayparts for the market later today. They're quite extreme in Japan. I've gone over them a bit in the past, but not in-depth. And aince we have a major film in release, it'll be a good time to do so.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (11/2
First of welcome to the forum!!

The time you mentioned would be the right time for adults but I believe families with young kids would prefer to finish all the outing by the day and return home by early evening for family dinner.
Author:  pookpooi [ Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (11/2
Just notice top 5 2019 imported films opening weekend are all Disney.
Author:  Corpse [ Sat Nov 30, 2019 9:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (11/2
So... a surprise!

Sunday is December 1st! Totally slipped my mind (granted, I've been pretty busy). As most of you know, the 1st of every month is national discount day, where theaters offer tickets at 40% off. This, obviously, really drives ticket sales for the day, but it also greatly lowers the average ticket price of a film due to the discount. That said, the day itself ends up boosting everything by revenue anyway simply due to the increase in business.

Frozen II (and just about everything else) will be up versus last Sunday, and in Frozen's case, that's despite it coming off such a monstrous Sunday last week. I know you guys are keeping track, so the increases you're seeing are in ADMISSIONS, not revenue -- please keep that in mind. Whatever the increase in admissions is, the increase in revenue ends up being 10-15% less.

Frozen II is currently up 33% in admissions compared to last Sunday (I know, pure insanity), but in revenue that's going to be more like 20% (still pure insanity). So today, its second Sunday, will definitely be its biggest day so far in admissions, and likely in revenue as well.

And all of this means that the film will, indeed, experience a sub-20% second weekend drop afterall (probably sub-15%). Second or third biggest all-time second weekend is pretty much a done deal.
Author:  R136a1 [ Sat Nov 30, 2019 10:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (Eyeing Top 3 All-Time 2nd WK
Very impressive indeed. Looks like some of the business got shifted from Saturday (which dropped a little higher than I expected) to Sunday because of the discount day.
Author:  Danhjpn [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (Eyeing Top 3 All-Time 2nd WK
So it started so slow down after a crazy performance day.
Currently it is at 526k (18.00 pm local time).
Author:  Danhjpn [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 6:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (Eyeing Top 3 All-Time 2nd WK
It seems that 560k (usual location) for to day.

767k for all location

Discount ticket: 1100/

844M yen total for today

Yesterday: 560M yen

2nd weekend total: 1.404B yen (-13.1% from 1st weekend)
Author:  Corpse [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (Eyeing Top 3 All-Time 2nd WK
Yes. Nice calculations. I'd just up Sunday slightly. The weekend gross will likely be sub-15% (13% is a good estimate), while the drop in admissions will almost certainly be sub-10% (maybe close to a mere 5%).

Not only is Frozen II's second Sunday its biggest day so far, it's also almost assuredly a new OVERALL single day record in admissions (I'm talking opening days and holidays here too), and certainly near the top in revenue as well.

I'll have a lot to post later this afternoon.
Author:  Danhjpn [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 9:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (Eyeing Top 3 All-Time 2nd WK
Okay, it seems the final number for today is 569,447 (on mimorin)
All location: 780,064
Discount ticket: 1100/
Total gross Sun: 858M yen
Yesterday gross: 560M
Total for 2nd weekend: 1.418 B yen (-12.24% from the 1st weekend).
Author:  pookpooi [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (Eyeing Top 3 All-Time 2nd WK
I thought Japan is already super crazy about Frozen 2, then I heard it makes 60% more in revenue in South Korea despite having less than half of Japan's population.
Author:  mark66 [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 12:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (Eyeing Top 3 All-Time 2nd WK
Japan is all about legs...
Author:  cannastop [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 1:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (Eyeing Top 3 All-Time 2nd WK
pookpooi wrote:
I thought Japan is already super crazy about Frozen 2, then I heard it makes 60% more in revenue in South Korea despite having less than half of Japan's population.


That is an interesting stat, but Frozen II will have a huge multiplier in Japan.
Author:  Corpse [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (Eyeing Top 3 All-Time 2nd WK
Danhjpn's estimates look very good, and are likely very close.

I'm going to go a tad bit more "conservative", and still go with a 13% decline versus a 12% decline (I know, such a big difference!). I over-estimated a bit last weekend, and like to avoid doing so.

So I'm going with a second weekend of: ¥1.400 billion ($12.8 million) / 1,195,000 admissions, for a two-week total of ¥4.150 billion ($35.8 million).

If it stays above ¥1.392 billion (Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets), it'll have achieved the 2nd Biggest Second Weekend of All-Time, and the biggest in 18-years(!), behind only Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone. If it does miss second place though, claiming the 3rd Biggest Second Weekend of All-Time and the biggest in 17-years is just about as equally impressive, insanely impressive.

And it will also beat Howl's Moving Castle's second weekend record of ¥1.25 billion to claim the record of Biggest Second Weekend of All-Time for an animated film. It only took 14-years.
Author:  Corpse [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 2:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Second Weekends
Biggest Second Weekends/Two Week Totals (2000-):

¥1.57 billion ($12.2 million), +02%, ¥4.66 billion ($36.9 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥1.44 billion ($13.2 million), -11%, ¥4.31 billion ($39.4 million) - Frozen II (2019)
¥1.39 billion ($11.3 million), -31%, ¥4.56 billion ($37.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥1.26 billion ($11.6 million), -35%, ¥4.19 billion ($38.5 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥1.25 billion ($11.7 million), -16%, ¥4.75 billion ($44.5 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥1.17 billion ($9.6 million), -21%, ¥4.39 billion ($36.2 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥1.16 billion ($11.2 million), +25%, ¥3.87 billion ($37.6 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million), +05%, ¥3.65 billion ($32.7 million) - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥1.11 billion ($13.8 million), -08%, ¥3.61 billion ($44.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥1.10 billion ($10.1 million), -02%, ¥3.58 billion ($33.0 million) - Aladdin (2019)
¥1.09 billion ($9.3 million), -50%, ¥4.68 billion ($39.7 million) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥1.08 billion ($9.0 million), -19%, ¥3.62 billion ($30.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥1.04 billion ($10.8 million), -14%, ¥3.33 billion ($33.8 million) - Rookies (2009)
¥1.02 billion ($10.9 million), -22%, ¥3.54 billion ($37.7 million) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥1.02 billion ($9.1 million), -20%, ¥3.60 billion ($31.7 million) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥1.01 billion ($9.3 million), -15%, ¥3.99 billion ($36.8 million) - Weathering With You (2019)
____________________
¥975 million ($8.7 million), -02%, ¥4.24 billion ($34.6 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥941 million ($7.6 million), +11%, ¥4.36 billion ($35.0 million) - Jurassic World (2015)
¥936 million ($7.9 million), -25%, ¥3.18 billion ($26.9 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥886 million ($8.0 million), -39%, ¥3.59 billion ($32.3 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
¥872 million ($8.6 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥860 million ($8.0 million), -04%, ¥2.49 billion ($23.1 million) - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥855 million ($7.9 million), -38%, ¥3.99 billion ($36.9 million) - Toy Story 4 (2019)
¥820 million ($7.6 million), -37%, ¥3.23 billion ($30.0 million) - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
¥820 million ($7.1 million), -19%, ¥2.98 billion ($25.8 million) - Hero (2007)
¥814 million ($7.3 million), -62%, ¥4.07 billion ($36.1 million) - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)
¥811 million ($8.3 million), -16%, ¥2.85 billion ($29.2 million) - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥810 million ($7.5 million), -48%, ¥3.43 billion ($30.8 million) - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
¥806 million ($7.6 million), -22%, ¥3.23 billion ($30.5 million) - Ponyo (2008)
¥757 million ($6.8 million), -38%, ¥3.56 billion ($31.6 million) - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
¥756 million ($7.1 million), -25%, ¥2.62 billion ($25.0 million) - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
¥748 million ($6.8 million), -42%, ¥2.76 billion ($25.1 million) - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
¥744 million ($6.6 million), -13%, ¥2.89 billion ($25.6 million) - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (2018)
¥740 million ($6.5 million), -29%, ¥2.62 billion ($23.2 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
¥728 million ($8.2 million), -26%, ¥2.37 billion ($27.3 million) - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥726 million ($6.0 million), -42%, ¥3.84 billion ($31.8 million) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
¥708 million ($6.3 million), -27%, ¥2.35 billion ($21.8 million) - Umizaru: The Limit of Love (2006)
¥705 million ($6.1 million), -63%, ¥3.75 billion ($32.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
¥704 million ($8.6 million), -48%, ¥2.86 billion ($34.7 million) - One Piece Film Z (2012)
¥704 million ($6.6 million), -17%, ¥1.71 billion ($16.0 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (2018)
¥703 million ($7.2 million), -17%, ¥2.49 billion ($25.4 million) - Monsters University (2013)
¥701 million ($6.9 million), -09%, ¥3.27 billion ($32.1 million) - Stand By Me, Doraemon (2014)
Author:  Corpse [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen Showdown
Frozen Showdown (Frozen II vs. Frozen)

Image

Frozen II
¥1.616 billion ($14.9 million)
¥1.443 billion ($13.2 million), -11%, ¥4.31 billion ($39.4 million)

Frozen
¥763 million ($7.5 million)
¥872 million ($8.5 million), +13%, ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million)
¥881 million ($8.6 million), +01%, ¥5.28 billion ($51.6 million)
¥850 million ($8.3 million), -03%, ¥7.71 billion ($74.8 million)
¥841 million ($8.2 million), -01%, ¥9.28 billion ($90.7 million)
¥826 million ($8.1 million), -02%, ¥10.73 billion ($104.8 million)
¥772 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million)
¥1.12 billion ($11.1 million), +46%, ¥14.62 billion ($143.4 million)
¥738 million ($7.2 million), -34%, ¥17.08 billion ($167.4 million)
¥807 million ($7.9 million), +09%, ¥18.53 billion ($181.8 million)
¥700 million ($6.9 million), -13%, ¥19.85 billion ($194.6 million)
¥759 million ($7.5 million), +08%, ¥21.23 billion ($208.1 million)
¥592 million ($5.8 million), -23%, ¥22.33 billion ($218.9 million)
¥392 million ($3.8 million), -34%, ¥23.10 billion ($226.4 million)
¥364 million ($3.5 million), -08%, ¥23.76 billion ($233.0 million)
¥274 million ($2.7 million), -25%, ¥24.25 billion ($237.9 million)
¥184 million ($1.8 million), -33%, ¥24.63 billion ($241.5 million)
¥129 million ($1.2 million), -29%, ¥24.88 billion ($244.2 million)
¥x77 million ($0.7 million), -39%, ¥25.06 billion ($245.9 million)
Final: ¥25.50 billion ($249.6 million) / 20.03 million admissions.
Author:  Danhjpn [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (2nd* Biggest Second WKND Eve
Star Wars is big in Japan. Will it affect Frozen 2 legs in 3 weeks later?
Author:  Corpse [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 3:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (2nd* Biggest Second WKND Eve
Nah. It will probably take a fair number of Frozen's premium format showings (initially), but the Star War films are quite fan-driven. There isn't a significant casual audience that may attend that would really affect Frozen or any other release.

Episode VIII also saw a major decline of 36% from Episode VII, becoming the lowest-grossing Star Wars film in the market since Episode VI..., due to a poor reception and disappointing legs (for the time of year), so I wouldn't expect the fanbase to be as excited this time around.

For reference: Episode III opened higher than Episode II, but ended up grossing less than it in the end. I wouldn't be surprised, and even expect, a similar situation with Episode IX (bigger opening than Episode VIII, but possibly a lower total). Unless Episode IX proves to be unique, I expect it'll continue the Star Wars trilogy tend of fist film > second film > third film at the box-office.
Author:  mark66 [ Sun Dec 01, 2019 5:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (2nd* Biggest Second WKND Eve
Disney reports a $38.3m cume...
Author:  Danhjpn [ Mon Dec 02, 2019 1:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (2nd* Biggest Second WKND Eve
Last monday F2 total was 145k, so the usual location was 97k (67%) or 105k (73%)?
Author:  Agafin [ Mon Dec 02, 2019 2:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (2nd* Biggest Second WKND Eve
Hi Corpse, please do you know which other movie has had two 1 million+ weekends besides Frozen? Based on that chart, it seems only HP 1 & 2 (maaaybe 3 too).
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Dec 02, 2019 4:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (2nd* Biggest Second WKND Eve
Based on the charts its HP and Pirates though obviously not the first two movies in the franchise for the later but then again first Frozen didn't reach 1B on its opening it so I guess to answer your question all the movies in the chart above did that??

Corpse wrote:
Biggest Second Weekends/Two Week Totals (2000-):

¥1.57 billion ($12.2 million), +02%, ¥4.66 billion ($36.9 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥1.40 billion ($12.8 million), -13%, ¥4.15 billion ($35.8 million) - Frozen II (2019) *Estimate*
¥1.39 billion ($11.3 million), -31%, ¥4.56 billion ($37.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥1.26 billion ($11.6 million), -35%, ¥4.19 billion ($38.5 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥1.25 billion ($11.7 million), -16%, ¥4.75 billion ($44.5 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥1.17 billion ($9.6 million), -21%, ¥4.39 billion ($36.2 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥1.16 billion ($11.2 million), +25%, ¥3.87 billion ($37.6 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million), +05%, ¥3.65 billion ($32.7 million) - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥1.11 billion ($13.8 million), -08%, ¥3.61 billion ($44.4 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
¥1.10 billion ($10.1 million), -02%, ¥3.58 billion ($33.0 million) - Aladdin (2019)
¥1.09 billion ($9.3 million), -50%, ¥4.68 billion ($39.7 million) - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
¥1.08 billion ($9.0 million), -19%, ¥3.62 billion ($30.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥1.04 billion ($10.8 million), -14%, ¥3.33 billion ($33.8 million) - Rookies (2009)
¥1.02 billion ($10.9 million), -22%, ¥3.54 billion ($37.7 million) - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
¥1.02 billion ($9.1 million), -20%, ¥3.60 billion ($31.7 million) - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
¥1.01 billion ($9.3 million), -15%, ¥3.99 billion ($36.8 million) - Weathering With You (2019)
____________________


I remember Your Name's opening came in below 1B though it did have multiple weekends above that mark.
Author:  Danhjpn [ Mon Dec 02, 2019 5:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (2nd* Biggest Second WKND Eve
2nd monday seems to drop 23% from 1st monday....
Is this a bad sign?
Author:  Danhjpn [ Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (2nd* Biggest Second WKND Eve
Frozen 2 weekend actuals: ¥1.443 billion (-10.7%)/1.24 million admissions

Cumulative Total: ¥4.3 billion



https://eiga.com/ranking/
Author:  cannastop [ Mon Dec 02, 2019 6:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Japan Box Office: Frozen 2 (2nd* Biggest Second WKND Eve
Danhjpn wrote:
2nd monday seems to drop 23% from 1st monday....
Is this a bad sign?


Sounds normal and good to me.
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