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 Japan Box Office: Holiday Weekend Forecast (09/14-15/16) 
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (02/2
Algren wrote:
Corpse, have you ever thought about making an adjusted for inflation all-time chart? I know once before you said there hasn't been much ticket-price inflation, but there must be a difference between, say, 1960 and now.


Eiren releases the national average ticket price here: http://www.eiren.org/statistics_e/index.html

As you can see, the last 25 years has roughly been in the same ballpark, but in 1960, tickets were almost 20x less than they are now. So I'm not sure that an adjusted for inflation chart would even make sense!

Although it would certainly be interesting to see.


Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:03 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (11/10-11)
feasby007 wrote:
Corpse wrote:
Image
(C)2018 Twentieth Century Fox

Weekend Actuals (11/10-11)
01 (---) ¥354,393,200 ($3.2 million), 0, ¥486,981,900 ($4.3 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) NEW
02 (01) ¥288,701,800 ($2.5 million), -34%, ¥1,238,347,700 ($10.9 million), Venom (Sony) WK2
03 (02) ¥194,122,700 ($1.7 million), -17%, ¥751,855,500 ($6.6 million), Stolen Identity (Toho) WK2
04 (---) ¥170,334,700 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥218,363,700 ($2.0 million), You, I Love (Asmik Ace) NEW
05 (03) ¥114,491,900 ($1.0 million), -46%, ¥817,855,400 ($7.2 million), Hugtto! Pretty Cure: All Stars Memories (Toei) WK3
06 (---) ¥x71,018,800 ($631,000), 0, ¥102,802,500 ($901,000), Godzilla: The Planet Eater (Toho) NEW
07 (---) ¥x51,837,620 ($460,000), 0, ¥x51,837,620 ($460,000), Zoku Owarimonogatari (Aniplex) NEW
08 (05) ¥x38,357,300 ($336,000),-40%, ¥409,063,400 ($3.7 million), The Traveling Cat Chronicles (Shochiku) WK3
09 (---) ¥x37,761,300 ($334,000), 0, ¥x37,761,300 ($334,000), Anemone: Kokyoshihen Eureka Seven Hi-Evolution (Showgate) NEW
10 (---) ¥x31,668,800 ($281,000), 0, ¥x41,471,400 ($368,000), Johnny English Strikes Again (Toho-Towa) NEW


>Bohemian Rhapsody debuted atop the box office, delivering quite the impressive start, selling 245,258 admissions over the weekend frame across 469 screens; and 338,299 admissions since Friday. It became Fox's second biggest debut of the year, opening just 9% below The Greatest Showman. I don't believe the Queen biopic will come anywhere near the legs of The Greatest Showman, but it'll likely develop strong legs given the genre, so I'd expect a total between ¥2.5-3 billion ($25-30 million) for now.


Lol, if only you could've known what was to come :funny: :yummy:


Indeed! Who would have thought it would go on to best Frozen and achieve the highest recorded multiplier ever? Moments like that are what makes predicting the box office more entertaining. :P

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Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:32 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (02/2
Algren wrote:
Corpse, have you ever thought about making an adjusted for inflation all-time chart? I know once before you said there hasn't been much ticket-price inflation, but there must be a difference between, say, 1960 and now.


I could. The list may be a bit limited, however, becase as you mentioned, and feasby007 expanded on, there's been little inflation since the early 1990s; and any gross for a film released after 1993 would barely change.

The 1950s-1970s (mostly just the 50s and 60s though) is where adjusting for inflation makes the most sense.

I can put together a chart in a week or so.

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Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:40 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (02/2
If that's the case, I hardly see the point. As, at least for me, adjusted differences outside of a 10 year range are kind of useless in comparing.


Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:12 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (11/10-11)
Corpse wrote:

Indeed! Who would have thought it would go on to best Frozen and achieve the highest recorded multiplier ever? Moments like that are what makes predicting the box office more entertaining. :P


Out of curiosity, I searched up some of the biggest surprises between your predictions for a film's total after its opening weekend versus what it actually finished with.

Bohemian Rhapsody will finish around ¥10 billion higher than your initial prediction of ¥2.5- 3 billion. Frozen finished around ¥18.5 billion higher than the initial ¥7 billion you predicted after its opening. ¥7 billion was also the initial floor you gave for Your Name, although you recognized even after the OW that it was likely to go much higher than that.

Unfortunately, this thread only dates back to 2008. It would have been interesting to see what your predictions would be for Princess Mononoke, Titanic, the first Harry Potter, and Spirited Away after their openings.


Last edited by R136a1 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:42 am, edited 2 times in total.



Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:33 pm
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (02/2
But at least Corpse is very quickly realized the mistake, unlike Box Office Mojo....


Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:13 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (11/10-11)
R136a1 wrote:
Corpse wrote:

Indeed! Who would have thought it would go on to best Frozen and achieve the highest recorded multiplier ever? Moments like that are what makes predicting the box office more entertaining. :P


Out of curiosity, I searched up some of the biggest surprises between your predictions for a film's total after its opening weekend versus what it actually finished with.

Bohemian Rhapsody will finish around ¥10 billion higher than your initial prediction of ¥2.5- 3 billion. Frozen finished around ¥18.5 billion higher than the initial ¥7 billion you predicted after its opening. ¥7 billion was also the initial floor you gave for Your Name, although you recognized even after the OW that it was likely to go much higher than that.

Unfortunately, this thread only dates back to 2008. It would have been interesting to see what your predictions would be for Princess Mononoke, Titanic, the first Harry Potter, and Spirited Away after their openings.


Princess Mononoke had one of the biggest opening weekends, and the biggest ever for an animated film, when it was released. Predicting a ¥10 billion+ total after it opened would have been normal, with a few probably expecting it to beat E.T. to become the highest grossing film ever. Of course, it did so and went higher than that and almost reached ¥20 billion. My, and others, prediction would have been well off, but not by a huge degree.

Titanic would likely have been similar to a Bohemian Rhapsody, Frozen, or Your Name.. Very, very off. Who would predict a 40-60 multiplier? :mer: Its opening weekend is unknown, but since it did open at #1 (in the often competitive late December), and given it likely wasn't a huge debut (otherwise I expect its number would be available), a multiplier somewhere in that range is likely.

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone would have been pretty close, honestly, given its ridiculous opening weekend. After it opened, I would have expected ¥15 billion at least since a multiplier of 10 isn't too hard to reach, especially for a December release. Its opening weekend is what I, and many others, probably would have gotten way wrong.

Spirited Away was expected to be monstrous, and it showed when it achieved a debut over ¥1 billion, becoming the first animated film to reach that mark. It may have been among as few as three or fours film to open that high before it as well (I can only think of two others). From there, I doubt many, myself included, would have predicted below ¥20 billion, and reaching ¥25 billion (that's still less than Mononoke's multiplier) and going on to challenge/beat Titanic wouldn't have seemed unlikely either.

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Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:06 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (02/2
Japan Academy Prize
https://www.japan-academy-prize.jp/prizes/42.html

Expect the expected LOL


Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:16 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (02/2
The thing with the Japan Academy Prize is that they're very, very predictable.

Shoplifters winning Best Picture and numerous other awards is no surprise.
Mirai of the Future winning Best Animated Film isn't surprising (Hosoda is undefeated in the category).
Bohemian Rhapsody winning Best Foreign-Language Film is no surprise. It's one of the best critically reviewed films ever in Japan, and the audience reception was/is through the roof.

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Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:20 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Japan Academy Best Picture Winners
Japan Academy Prize Best Picture Winners:

Best Picture Winners:
2018 - Shoplifters (Hirokazu Kore-eda)
2017 - The Third Murderer (Hirokazu Kore-eda)
2016 - Shin Godzilla (Hideaki Anno, Shinji Higuchi)
2015 - Our Little Sister (Hirokazu Kore-eda)
2014 - The Eternal Zero (Takashi Yamazaki)
2013 - The Great Passage (Yuya Ishii)
2012 - The Eighth Day Cicada (Izuru Narushima)
2011 - Confessions (Tetsuya Nakashima)
2010 - The Unbroken (Setsurō Wakamatsu)
2009 - Departures (Tojiro Takita)
2008 - Tokyo Tower: Me and Mom, and Sometimes Dad (Yoji Matsuka)
2007 - Hula Girls (Lee Sang-il)
2006 - Always: Sunset on Third Street (Takashi Yamazaki)
2005 - Half a Confession (Kiyoshi Sasabe)
2004 - When the Last Sword is Drawn (Yojiro Takita)
2003 - The Twilight Samurai (Yoji Yamada)
2002 - Spirited Away (Hayao Miyazaki)
2001 - After the Rain (Takashi Koizuma)
2000 - Poppoya (Yasuo Furuhata)
1999 - Begging for Love (Hideyuki Hirayama)
1998 - Princess Mononoke (Hayao Miyazaki)
1997 - Shall We Dance (Masayuki Suo)
1996 - A Last Note (Kaneto Shindo)
1995 - Crest of Betrayal (Kinji Fukasaku)
1994 - A Class to Remember (Yoji Yamada)
1993 - Sumo Do, Sumo Don't (Masayuki Suo)
1992 - My Sons (Yoji Yamada)
1991 - Childhood Days (Masahiro Shinoda)
1990 - Black Rain (Shohei Imamura)
1989 - The Silk Road (Junya Sato)
1988 - A Taxing Woman (Juzo Itami)
1987 - House on Fire (Kinji Fukasaku)
1986 - Gray Sunset (Shunya Itō)
1985 - The Funeral (Juzo Itami)
1984 - The Ballad of Narayama (Shohei Imamura)
1983 - Fall Guy (Kinji Fukasaku)
1982 - Station (Yasuo Furuhata)
1981 - Zigeunerweisen (Seijun Suzuki)
1980 - Vengeance is Mine (Shohei Imamura)
1979 - The Incident (Yoshitaro Nomura)
1978 - The Yellow Handkerchief (Yoji Yamada)


Best Animated Picture Winners:
2018 - Mirai of the Future (Mamoru Hosoda)
2017 - The Night is Short, Walk on Girl (Masaaki Yuasa)
2016 - In This Corner of the World (Sunao Katabuchi)
2015 - The Boy and the Beast (Mamoru Hosoda)
2014 - Stand By Me, Doraemon (Takashi Yamazaki)
2013 - The Wind Rises (Hayao Miyazaki)
2012 - Wolf Children (Mamoru Hosoda)
2011 - From Up on Poppy Hill (Goro Miyazaki)
2010 - Arrietty (Hiromasa Yonebayashi)
2009 - Summer Wars (Mamoru Hosoda)
2008 - Ponyo (Hayao Miyazaki)
2007 - Tekkonkinkreet (Michael Arias)
2006 - The Girl Who Leapt Through Time (Mamoru Hosoda)


Best Foreign-Language Picture Winners:
2018 - Bohemian Rhapsody (Bryan Singer)
2017 - La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
2016 - Sully (Clint Eastwood)
2015 - American Sniper (Clint Eastwood)
2014 - Frozen (Chris Buck, Jennifer Lee)
2013 - Les Miserables (Tom Hooper)
2012 - The Intouchables (Eric Toledano, Olivier Nakache)
2011 - The King's Speech (Tom Hooper)
2010 - Avatar (James Cameron)
2009 - Gran Torino (Clint Eastwood)
2008 - The Dark Knight (Christopher Nolan)
2007 - Letters from Iwo Jima (Clint Eastwood)
2006 - Flags of Our Father (Clint Eastwood)
2005 - Million Dollar Baby (Clint Eastwood)
2004 - The Last Samurai (Edward Zwick)
2003 - The Pianist (Roman Polanski)
2002 - Monster's Ball (Marc Foster)
2001 - Billy Elliot (Stephen Daldry)
2000 - Dancer in the Dark (Lars von Trier)
1999 - The Sixth Sense (M. Night Shyamalan)
1998 - L.A. Confidential (Curtis Hanson)
1997 - Titanic (James Cameron)
1996 - II Postino (Michael Radford)
1995 - The Shawshank Redemption (Frank Darabont)
1994 - Schindler's List (Steven Spielberg)
1993 - Jurassic Park (Steven Spielberg)
1992 - JFK (Oliver Stone)
1991 - Dances with Wolves (Kevin Costner)
1990 - Field of Dreams (Phil Alden Robinson)
1989 - Die Hard (John McTiernan)
1988 - The Last Emperor (Bernardo Bertolucci)
1987 - Platoon (Oliver Stone)
1986 - Back to the Future (Robert Zemeckis)
1985 - Amadeus (Milos Forman)
1984 - Once Upon a Time in America (Sergio Leone)
1983 - An Officer and a Gentlemen (Taylor Hackford)
1982 - E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial (Steven Spielberg)
1981 - Die Blechtrommel (Volker Schlöndorff)
1980 - Kramer vs. Kramer (Robert Benton)
1979 - The Deer Hunter (Michael Cimino)
1978 - Conversation Piece (Luchino Visconti)
1977 - Rocky (John G. Avildsen)

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Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:25 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (02/2
Bohemian has a good chance, but it's not a lock for me, like 68% winrate. Also 4 out of 5 films in this category are from 20th Century Fox, not bad!
Mirai is very strong with its Oscar nominee boost, 95% winrate. A little bit sad that if Broly won we'll probably see Toei statement which is likely to include box office update.
Shoplifters is invincible, 99.7% winrate. Cannes winner + Oscar nominee + the pass away of its supporting actress, in which she nominated not just one but two in the same category this year and win posthumous for Shoplifters.


Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:31 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (11/10-11)
Corpse wrote:

Princess Mononoke had one of the biggest opening weekends, and the biggest ever for an animated film, when it was released. Predicting a ¥10 billion+ total after it opened would have been normal, with a few probably expecting it to beat E.T. to become the highest grossing film ever. Of course, it did so and went higher than that and almost reached ¥20 billion. My, and others, prediction would have been well off, but not by a huge degree.

Titanic would likely have been similar to a Bohemian Rhapsody, Frozen, or Your Name.. Very, very off. Who would predict a 40-60 multiplier? :mer: Its opening weekend is unknown, but since it did open at #1 (in the often competitive late December), and given it likely wasn't a huge debut (otherwise I expect its number would be available), a multiplier somewhere in that range is likely.

Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone would have been pretty close, honestly, given its ridiculous opening weekend. After it opened, I would have expected ¥15 billion at least since a multiplier of 10 isn't too hard to reach, especially for a December release. Its opening weekend is what I, and many others, probably would have gotten way wrong.

Spirited Away was expected to be monstrous, and it showed when it achieved a debut over ¥1 billion, becoming the first animated film to reach that mark. It may have been among as few as three or fours film to open that high before it as well (I can only think of two others). From there, I doubt many, myself included, would have predicted below ¥20 billion, and reaching ¥25 billion (that's still less than Mononoke's multiplier) and going on to challenge/beat Titanic wouldn't have seemed unlikely either.


Thank you for retroactively giving your predictions! I couldn't find your post-OW prediction for Avatar, but I'm guessing over ¥15 billion would still have been seen as a very ambitious target even given the post-Titanic James Cameron factor.


Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:17 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (02/2
Doraemon presales for Saturday: 47765
Last year: 46976

That is very close indeed. Also it has 1.08m seats available compared to 970k last year. Will be a fun weekend to watch.


Last edited by feasby007 on Fri Mar 08, 2019 9:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:19 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (02/2
So was The Mule not eligible, Corpse?


Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:31 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (02/2
Algren wrote:
So was The Mule not eligible, Corpse?


It opens next weekend, so it'll likely be nominated next time.

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Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:03 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (11/10-11)
R136a1 wrote:
Thank you for retroactively giving your predictions! I couldn't find your post-OW prediction for Avatar, but I'm guessing over ¥15 billion would still have been seen as a very ambitious target even given the post-Titanic James Cameron factor.


Yeah, after its strong, but not great, opening weekend, I wouldn't have predicted anywhere near ¥15 billion. The good, but not great, reviews also wouldn't have suggested phenomenal legs either. I don't remember if I made any projections (probably not since I started to actually research the Japanese box office in early 2010), but I likely would have predicted around ¥6/7 billion.

I guess any time I project ~¥7 billion, you can expect a film to double/triple that number. :lol:

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Last edited by Corpse on Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:06 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (02/2
I'm not going to post a Weekend Forecast this weekend. Instead, since we have a very big opener (Doraemon), I'm going to post the hourly admissions updates to keep track of it over the weekend. I've more or less made this the norm for awhile now when a big film opens, and I'll probably make it permanent moving forward.

First update coming up soon.

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Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:08 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Doraemon 39 Debuts
Sorry this is taking a bit, but I'm adding more films to the chart for comparison purposes. I'll have the update posted "soon"!

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Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:01 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Doraemon 39 Debuts
Usual Locations (Two-Thirds of Market) - Hourly Saturday Ticket Sales:

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 9PM > FINAL

29,064 > x44,099 > x66,420 - Doraemon 39

Previous Major Openers (Saturday Results) [2015-]
43,557 > x71,681 > x93,992 > 122,021 > 151,314 > 175,522 > 207,502 > 229,798 > 277,427 > 342,959 > 348,024 - Detective Conan 21
39,732 > x64,094 > x90,575 > 118,008 > 155,118 > 174,599 > 209,900 > 236,090 > 282,310 > 341,011 > 345,143 - Detective Conan 22
43,953 > x57,204 > x81,751 > 110,262 > 126,170 > 168,362 > 195,657 > 206,362 > 254,352 > 324,272 > 330,349 - Pirates of the Caribbean 5
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20
63,854 > x89,438 > 109,249 > 128,842 > 148,074 > 177,219 > 197,555 > 209,978 > 235,145 > 283,231 > 286,726 - One Piece Film Gold
37,688 > x51,536 > x78,625 > x96,317 > 110,615 > 147,556 > 158,990 > 176,601 > 209,065 > 278,130 > 283,482 - Star Wars VIII
30,914 > x42,990 > x62,982 > x85,904 > 102,185 > 140,690 > 163,724 > 174,087 > 209,595 > 261,046 > 266,911 - Jurassic World 2
35,649 > x44,489 > x58,686 > x69,098 > x88,527 > 103,765 > 131,753 > 161,863 > 196,572 > 255,793 > 262,671 - Beauty and the Beast
37,850 > x52,209 > x81,753 > 101,473 > 119,605 > 161,180 > 177,321 > 188,231 > 210,871 > 235,354 > 241,332 - Code Blue
xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx >>> 227,517 - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F
25,910 > x32,060 > x57,063 > x73,610 > x84,101 > 120,336 > 134,258 > 141,719 > 171,620 > 211,793 > 217,221 - Fantastic Beasts 2
xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx >>> 209,804 - Detective Conan 20
17,886 > x31,861 > x46,109 > x55,320 > x84,164 > x94,353 > 114,193 > 134,889 > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > 202,075 - Your Name.
xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx >>> 196,491 - Jurassic World
26,792 > x41,467 > x59,601 > x72,157 > x99,348 > 117,861 > 135,650 > 147,193 > 165,271 > 185,998 > 193,053 - Dragon Ball Super: Broly
30,062 > x52,132 > x69,597 > x80,552 > 115,470 > 128,413 > 141,480 > 160,560 > 183,484 > 185,333 > 187,901 - Doraemon 38
14,564 > x18,126 > x38,232 > x49,350 > x55,948 > x82,147 > x96,840 > 104,265 > 129,089 > 162,764 > 166,650 - Fantastic Beasts


All films that have opened above ¥800 million since 2015 are included above. Please note that Detective Conan 20, Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F, and Jurassic World weren't tracked using all of the usual locations (two-thirds of the market) since Aeon Cinemas wasn't apart of the regular updates yet. Their total admissions do, however, include Aeon Cinemas. There was also an error tracking Your Name. after 5PM, so it's missing two updates.

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Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:11 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Doraemon 39 Debuts
So it's doing worse than Doraemon 38.


Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:27 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Doraemon 39 Debuts
Usual Locations (Two-Thirds of Market) - Hourly Saturday Ticket Sales:

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 9PM > FINAL

29,064 > x44,099 > x66,420 > x80,789 > 104,701 > 124,875 > 137,005 > 144,884 - Doraemon 39

Previous Major Openers (Saturday Results) [2015-]
43,557 > x71,681 > x93,992 > 122,021 > 151,314 > 175,522 > 207,502 > 229,798 > 277,427 > 342,959 > 348,024 - Detective Conan 21
39,732 > x64,094 > x90,575 > 118,008 > 155,118 > 174,599 > 209,900 > 236,090 > 282,310 > 341,011 > 345,143 - Detective Conan 22
43,953 > x57,204 > x81,751 > 110,262 > 126,170 > 168,362 > 195,657 > 206,362 > 254,352 > 324,272 > 330,349 - Pirates of the Caribbean 5
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20
63,854 > x89,438 > 109,249 > 128,842 > 148,074 > 177,219 > 197,555 > 209,978 > 235,145 > 283,231 > 286,726 - One Piece Film Gold
37,688 > x51,536 > x78,625 > x96,317 > 110,615 > 147,556 > 158,990 > 176,601 > 209,065 > 278,130 > 283,482 - Star Wars VIII
30,914 > x42,990 > x62,982 > x85,904 > 102,185 > 140,690 > 163,724 > 174,087 > 209,595 > 261,046 > 266,911 - Jurassic World 2
35,649 > x44,489 > x58,686 > x69,098 > x88,527 > 103,765 > 131,753 > 161,863 > 196,572 > 255,793 > 262,671 - Beauty and the Beast
37,850 > x52,209 > x81,753 > 101,473 > 119,605 > 161,180 > 177,321 > 188,231 > 210,871 > 235,354 > 241,332 - Code Blue
xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx >>> 227,517 - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F
25,910 > x32,060 > x57,063 > x73,610 > x84,101 > 120,336 > 134,258 > 141,719 > 171,620 > 211,793 > 217,221 - Fantastic Beasts 2
xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx >>> 209,804 - Detective Conan 19
17,886 > x31,861 > x46,109 > x55,320 > x84,164 > x94,353 > 114,193 > 134,889 > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > 202,075 - Your Name.
xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx >>> 196,491 - Jurassic World
26,792 > x41,467 > x59,601 > x72,157 > x99,348 > 117,861 > 135,650 > 147,193 > 165,271 > 185,998 > 193,053 - Dragon Ball Super: Broly
30,062 > x52,132 > x69,597 > x80,552 > 115,470 > 128,413 > 141,480 > 160,560 > 183,484 > 185,333 > 187,901 - Doraemon 38
14,564 > x18,126 > x38,232 > x49,350 > x55,948 > x82,147 > x96,840 > 104,265 > 129,089 > 162,764 > 166,650 - Fantastic Beasts

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Last edited by Corpse on Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:26 am, edited 1 time in total.



Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:18 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Doraemon 39 Debuts
Algren wrote:
So it's doing worse than Doraemon 38.


Saturday, very likely. Sunday, maybe. Weekend, probably.

But, it's not an exact comparison this year because this entry was the first Friday release in the series. Granted, it didn't do much business on Friday because it skews so young, but the day certainly could have deflated Saturday slightly.

However, it's become a common trend since Friday instead of Saturday debuts became the norm last year, that Sundays have typically become stronger than usual as a result. Why? I'm not exactly sure other than WOM being able to spread a day earlier, but that rarely affects franchise films. We'll see what happens here.

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Sat Mar 02, 2019 5:22 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Doraemon 39 Debuts
Usual Locations (Two-Thirds of Market) - Hourly Saturday Ticket Sales:

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 9PM > FINAL

29,064 > x44,099 > x66,420 > x80,789 > 104,701 > 124,875 > 137,005 > 144,884 > 153,968 - Doraemon 39

Previous Major Openers (Saturday Results) [2015-]
43,557 > x71,681 > x93,992 > 122,021 > 151,314 > 175,522 > 207,502 > 229,798 > 277,427 > 342,959 > 348,024 - Detective Conan 21
39,732 > x64,094 > x90,575 > 118,008 > 155,118 > 174,599 > 209,900 > 236,090 > 282,310 > 341,011 > 345,143 - Detective Conan 22
43,953 > x57,204 > x81,751 > 110,262 > 126,170 > 168,362 > 195,657 > 206,362 > 254,352 > 324,272 > 330,349 - Pirates of the Caribbean 5
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20
63,854 > x89,438 > 109,249 > 128,842 > 148,074 > 177,219 > 197,555 > 209,978 > 235,145 > 283,231 > 286,726 - One Piece Film Gold
37,688 > x51,536 > x78,625 > x96,317 > 110,615 > 147,556 > 158,990 > 176,601 > 209,065 > 278,130 > 283,482 - Star Wars VIII
30,914 > x42,990 > x62,982 > x85,904 > 102,185 > 140,690 > 163,724 > 174,087 > 209,595 > 261,046 > 266,911 - Jurassic World 2
35,649 > x44,489 > x58,686 > x69,098 > x88,527 > 103,765 > 131,753 > 161,863 > 196,572 > 255,793 > 262,671 - Beauty and the Beast
37,850 > x52,209 > x81,753 > 101,473 > 119,605 > 161,180 > 177,321 > 188,231 > 210,871 > 235,354 > 241,332 - Code Blue
xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx >>> 227,517 - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F
25,910 > x32,060 > x57,063 > x73,610 > x84,101 > 120,336 > 134,258 > 141,719 > 171,620 > 211,793 > 217,221 - Fantastic Beasts 2
xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx >>> 209,804 - Detective Conan 19
17,886 > x31,861 > x46,109 > x55,320 > x84,164 > x94,353 > 114,193 > 134,889 > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > 202,075 - Your Name.
xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx >>> 196,491 - Jurassic World
26,792 > x41,467 > x59,601 > x72,157 > x99,348 > 117,861 > 135,650 > 147,193 > 165,271 > 185,998 > 193,053 - Dragon Ball Super: Broly
30,062 > x52,132 > x69,597 > x80,552 > 115,470 > 128,413 > 141,480 > 160,560 > 183,484 > 185,333 > 187,901 - Doraemon 38
14,564 > x18,126 > x38,232 > x49,350 > x55,948 > x82,147 > x96,840 > 104,265 > 129,089 > 162,764 > 166,650 - Fantastic Beasts

_________________
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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:05 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Doraemon 39 Debuts
Usual Locations (Two-Thirds of Market) - Hourly Saturday Ticket Sales:

10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 4PM > 5PM > 7PM > 9PM > FINAL

29,064 > x44,099 > x66,420 > x80,789 > 104,701 > 124,875 > 137,005 > 144,884 > 153,968 > 157,751 > 157,910 - Doraemon 39

Previous Major Openers (Saturday Results) [2015-]
43,557 > x71,681 > x93,992 > 122,021 > 151,314 > 175,522 > 207,502 > 229,798 > 277,427 > 342,959 > 348,024 - Detective Conan 21
39,732 > x64,094 > x90,575 > 118,008 > 155,118 > 174,599 > 209,900 > 236,090 > 282,310 > 341,011 > 345,143 - Detective Conan 22
43,953 > x57,204 > x81,751 > 110,262 > 126,170 > 168,362 > 195,657 > 206,362 > 254,352 > 324,272 > 330,349 - Pirates of the Caribbean 5
74,565 > 116,519 > 144,266 > 177,687 > 206,086 > 240,279 > 271,568 > 281,438 > 308,702 > 317,438 > 317,709 - Yo-Kai Watch 2
52,996 > x60,631 > x75,890 > 117,855 > 124,236 > 147,342 > 187,892 > 197,398 > 226,441 > 286,005 > 293,246 - Star Wars VII
39,622 > x55,638 > x79,473 > x99,228 > 124,143 > 156,171 > 176,298 > 194,209 > 229,193 > 285,429 > 289,656 - Detective Conan 20
63,854 > x89,438 > 109,249 > 128,842 > 148,074 > 177,219 > 197,555 > 209,978 > 235,145 > 283,231 > 286,726 - One Piece Film Gold
37,688 > x51,536 > x78,625 > x96,317 > 110,615 > 147,556 > 158,990 > 176,601 > 209,065 > 278,130 > 283,482 - Star Wars VIII
30,914 > x42,990 > x62,982 > x85,904 > 102,185 > 140,690 > 163,724 > 174,087 > 209,595 > 261,046 > 266,911 - Jurassic World 2
35,649 > x44,489 > x58,686 > x69,098 > x88,527 > 103,765 > 131,753 > 161,863 > 196,572 > 255,793 > 262,671 - Beauty and the Beast
37,850 > x52,209 > x81,753 > 101,473 > 119,605 > 161,180 > 177,321 > 188,231 > 210,871 > 235,354 > 241,332 - Code Blue
xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx >>> 227,517 - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F
25,910 > x32,060 > x57,063 > x73,610 > x84,101 > 120,336 > 134,258 > 141,719 > 171,620 > 211,793 > 217,221 - Fantastic Beasts 2
xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx >>> 209,804 - Detective Conan 19
17,886 > x31,861 > x46,109 > x55,320 > x84,164 > x94,353 > 114,193 > 134,889 > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > 202,075 - Your Name.
xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx > xxx,xxx >>> 196,491 - Jurassic World
26,792 > x41,467 > x59,601 > x72,157 > x99,348 > 117,861 > 135,650 > 147,193 > 165,271 > 185,998 > 193,053 - Dragon Ball Super: Broly
30,062 > x52,132 > x69,597 > x80,552 > 115,470 > 128,413 > 141,480 > 160,560 > 183,484 > 185,333 > 187,901 - Doraemon 38
31,532 > x41,391 > x68,734 > x84,425 > 116,091 > 129,657 > 143,882 > 158,848 > 171,269 > 174,628 > 174,797 - Doraemon 37
14,564 > x18,126 > x38,232 > x49,350 > x55,948 > x82,147 > x96,840 > 104,265 > 129,089 > 162,764 > 166,650 - Fantastic Beasts



Good first day, though depending on Sunday (which would prove otherwise), the franchise may be stabilizing and going back to more routine numbers after last year's film saw a noticeable jump and set a series record. But let's see how Sunday performs first before making any certain comments.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:17 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Openers Since 2015
Usual Locations (Two-Thirds of Market) - Weekend Admissions

Biggest Openers Since 2015:

Saturday Results (Two-Thirds of Market):
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title
348,024/605,267 (57.4% capacity), [239/1,676] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)
345,143/655,976 (52.6% capacity), [249/1,832] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
330,349/701,865 (47.1% capacity), [247/2,864] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)
317,709/530,456 (59.9% capacity), [231/1,727] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)
293,246/714,702 (41.0% capacity), [236/2,789] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
289,656/530,905 (54.5% capacity), [230/1,502] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)
286,726/658,842 (43.5% capacity), [231/2,256] - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)
283,482/670,255 (42.3% capacity), [254/2,527] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
266,911/816,498 (32.7% capacity), [251/3,196] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
262,671/667,610 (39.3% capacity), [245/2,327] - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
241,332/608,132 (39.7% capacity), [250/1,979] - Code Blue (July, 2018)
227,517/473,967 (48.0% capacity), [221/1,582] - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015)
217,221/919,956 (23.6% capacity), [258/3,250] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)
209,804/462,825 (45.3% capacity), [229/1,366] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Apr., 2015)
202,075/451,836 (44.7% capacity), [218/1,257] - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
196,491/520,369 (37.8% capacity), [237/1,744] - Jurassic World (Aug., 2015)
193,053/648,160 (29.8% capacity), [252/2,037] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)
187,901/485,825 (38.7% capacity), [235/1,574] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018)
174,797/501,322 (34.8% capacity), [240/1,487] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Mar., 2017)
166,650/766,440 (21.7% capacity), [241/2,556] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Nov., 2016)
157,910/547,894 (28.8% capacity), [252/1,655] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Mar., 2019)
157,739/484,007 (32.6% capacity), [247/1,422] - Masquerade Hotel (Jan., 2019)
139,061/668,663 (20.8% capacity), [236/2,346] - Finding Dory (July, 2016)
136,031/515,406 (26.4% capacity), [233/1,460] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Mar., 2016)


Sunday Results (Two-Thirds of Market):
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title
357,985/643,941 (55.6% capacity), [249/1,793] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
328,862/595,145 (55.3% capacity), [240/1,648] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)
316,396/810,365 (39.0% capacity), [251/3,159] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
303,414/524,359 (57.9% capacity), [231/1,688] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)
288,800/558,006 (51.7% capacity), [250/1,859] - Code Blue (July, 2018)
282,386/512,761 (55.1% capacity), [230/1,434] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)
275,491/670,208 (41.1% capacity), [236/2,636] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
264,078/659,166 (40.1% capacity), [254/2,486] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
263,634/633,723 (41.6% capacity), [245/2,241] - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
234,075/456,584 (51.2% capacity), [218/1,263] - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
220,152/483,455 (45.5% capacity), [235/1,567] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018)
219,122/687,402 (31.9% capacity), [247/2,805] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)
217,273/450,421 (48.2% capacity), [229/1,277] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Apr., 2015)
214,354/623,299 (34.4% capacity), [252/1,972] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)
210,322/497,446 (42.2% capacity), [240/1,479] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Mar., 2017)
207,464/639,737 (32.4% capacity), [231/2,205] - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)
205,221/685,215 (29.9% capacity), [236/2,336] - Finding Dory (July, 2016)
203,669/748,846 (27.2% capacity), [243/2,554] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Nov., 2016)
201,580/429,746 (46.9% capacity), [221/1,467] - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015)
196,225/903,942 (21.7% capacity), [258/3,189] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)
191,678/510,040 (37.6% capacity), [233/1,443] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Mar., 2016)
179,254/485,593 (36.9% capacity), [247/1,414] - Masquerade Hotel (Jan., 2019)
175,504/501,557 (35.0% capacity), [237/1,587] - Jurassic World (Aug., 2015)


Weekend Results (Two-Thirds of Market):
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title
703,128/1,299,917 (54.1% capacity), [249/3,625] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
676,886/1,200,412 (56.4% capacity), [240/3,324] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)
621,123/1,051,181 (59.1% capacity), [231/3,415] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)
583,307/1,626,823 (35.9% capacity), [251/6,355] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
572,042/1,043,666 (54.8% capacity), [230/2,936] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)
569,497/1,392,147 (40.9% capacity), [236/5,431] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
549,579/1,389,766 (39.6% capacity), [247/5,670] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)
547,821/1,330,179 (41.2% capacity), [254/5,015] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
530,132/1,116,138 (47.5% capacity), [250/3,838] - Code Blue (July, 2018)
526,470/1,302,175 (40.4% capacity), [245/4,570] - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
494,190/1,298,579 (38.1% capacity), [231/4,461] - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)
436,267/x,908,420 (48.0% capacity), [218/2,520] - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
429,097/x,903,746 (47.5% capacity), [221/3,049] - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015)
427,077/x,913,713 (46.8% capacity), [229/2,643] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Apr., 2015)
413,446/1,823,898 (22.7% capacity), [258/6,439] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)
408,053/x,969,280 (42.1% capacity), [235/3,141] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018)
407,419/1,271,559 (32.0% capacity), [252/4,010] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)
385,119/x,998,768 (38.6% capacity), [240/2,966] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Mar., 2017)
371,995/1,021,926 (36.4% capacity), [237/3,331] - Jurassic World (Aug., 2015)
370,390/1,515,394 (24.4% capacity), [243/5,111] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Nov., 2016)
344,292/1,394,229 (24.7% capacity), [236/4,683] - Finding Dory (July, 2016)
336,993/x,969,600 (34.8% capacity), [247/2,836] - Masquerade Hotel (Jan., 2019)
327,709/1,025,446 (31.9% capacity), [233/2,903] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Mar., 2016)

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Mar 02, 2019 1:35 pm
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