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 Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (11/10) 
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Congratulations on 11,000 posts! :clap: :clap: :clap:

And absolute madness for BR


Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:25 pm
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
It'd be awkward if Bohemian will still be around when Detective Conan Movie 23 released!


Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:43 pm
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Speed Racer
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I think beating Frozen's multiplier is a done deal. I don't see how BR misses ¥12 billion with this hold. This weekend may have been inflated by a holiday (and award boost is usually strongest immediately after the win), but BR has never had a weekend drop bigger than 15% yet. From what I can tell, the home release isn't until March 31. So it has plenty of time left to remain in the Top 5 or 10.


Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:23 pm
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
R136a1 wrote:
Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I think beating Frozen's multiplier is a done deal. I don't see how BR misses ¥12 billion with this hold. This weekend may have been inflated by a holiday (and award boost is usually strongest immediately after the win), but BR has never had a weekend drop bigger than 15% yet. From what I can tell, the home release isn't until March 31. So it has plenty of time left to remain in the Top 5 or 10.


I think you're correct, after there 10th weekends, Avatar made another ¥5b and Your Name. another ¥10b I believe, BR beat both of their 10th weekends. Even just ¥5b more gives it a 40x multiplier (which I think is almost certain to happen).


Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:41 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Avatar "only" made ¥3 billion more after its tenth weekend; Your Name. grossed ¥7.84 billion more after its tenth weekend.

It's hard, or inaccurate rather, to make projections for films based on how past films performed after so many weekends in release though. There are many variables to consider. The best method of doing this is to find a previous film released around the same time of the year. But... Bohemian Rhapsody is performing better than any film recorded before, so, I don't think we can really project anything this way.

R136a1 wrote:
From what I can tell, the home release isn't until March 31. So it has plenty of time left to remain in the Top 5 or 10.


It's being released March 14th in Japan. This is much too soon, because it will likely impact its box office, but there's more to be gained ($$$) with a video release than in theaters, so I don't think the home video release will be delayed.

I'm sure most remember, that the home video release is what largely ended Frozen's run in the market. It was still doing impressive numbers at the box office, but it plummeted and quickly left theaters when the video release came around. Disney made way more money from the home video release than they would have in theaters at that point, but still... it would have been nice to see how much more it could have earned with a couple more months in theaters.

You can't really ever predict when a film will be earning what it did when it opened 3-4 months+ later, so it is difficult to determine a home video release sometimes. That said, it would be nice to see imported films get a home video release up to a year after they're in theaters, which is usually the case with many major domestic films.

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Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:10 am
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Dragon Ball is now $54 million worldwide even without North America. Go Broly Go Go!
Did Dragon Ball ever release official worldwide figure? I got this number from ERC box office but it'd be better if there's number from Toei itself (in Yen?).


Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:21 am
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Don't Dream It, Be It
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
You'll probably have to wait until tomorrow. Monday being a holiday will delay most figures until then.

Speaking of which, since we won't get any numbers today, I'll post 3-day (Sat-Mon) weekend estimates here soon. :)

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Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:23 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
01 (---) ¥410,000,000 ($3.8 million), 0, ¥410,000,000 ($3.8 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex) NEW
02 (01) ¥402,000,000 ($3.7 million), +20%, ¥9,205,000,000 ($82.2 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK10
03 (02) ¥235,000,000 ($2.2 million), -20%, ¥3,100,000,000 ($28.4 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) WK4
04 (03) ¥112,000,000 ($1.0 million), -33%, ¥3,560,000,000 ($32.1 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK5
05 (---) ¥x90,000,000 ($830,000), 0, ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), Creed II (Warner Bros.) NEW
06 (05) ¥x86,000,000 ($795,000), -30%, ¥760,000,000 ($7.0 million), A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Toho) WK3
07 (04) ¥x85,000,000 ($785,000), -33%, ¥6,340,000,000 ($56.6 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK8
08 (07) ¥x84,000,000 ($775,000), -15%, ¥450,000,000 ($4.1 million), Love! Live Sunshine!! Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) WK2
09 (08) ¥x76,000,000 ($700,000), -21%, ¥1,075,000,000 ($9.7 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) WK4
10 (06) ¥x66,000,000 ($610,000), -34%, ¥1,345,000,000 ($12.2 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) WK4


3-Day Weekend Estimates (01/12-14): Coming of Age Day Weekend
01 (01) ¥618,000,000 ($5.7 million), +84%, ¥9,420,000,000 ($84.2 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK10
02 (---) ¥535,000,000 ($4.9 million), 0, ¥535,000,000 ($4.9 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex) NEW
03 (02) ¥405,000,000 ($3.8 million), +37%, ¥3,270,000,000 ($30.0 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) WK4
04 (03) ¥174,000,000 ($1.6 million), +04%, ¥3,620,000,000 ($32.7 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK5
05 (04) ¥138,000,000 ($1.3 million), +08%, ¥6,395,000,000 ($57.1 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK8
06 (---) ¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥165,000,000 ($1.5 million), Creed II (Warner Bros.) NEW
07 (05) ¥132,000,000 ($1.2 million), +07%, ¥805,000,000 ($7.4 million), A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Toho) WK3
08 (07) ¥118,000,000 ($1.1 million), +19%, ¥485,000,000 ($4.4 million), Love! Live Sunshine!! Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) WK2
09 (08) ¥117,000,000 ($1.1 million), +21%, ¥1,115,000,000 ($10.1 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) WK4
10 (06) ¥107,000,000 ($990,000), +07%, ¥1,385,000,000 ($12.5 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) WK4

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:56 am
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
I'm surprised by the three day.

I had the exact 2 day as you of ¥112 million with ¥45 million being on Saturday and ¥67 million on Sunday.

But I see that Monday has sold more tickets than Sunday according to Mimorin so I was thinking more like ¥69 million for a total of ¥181 miillion.

Are ticket prices down on the Monday or is my Saturday and Sunday off? I went by the same ratio as Mimorin.


Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:31 am
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Don't Dream It, Be It
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Aeon Cinemas, the largest theater chain by count, second largest by attendance (behind Toho Cinemas), have discounted ticket prices on Mondays. They represent ~25% of the box office, so Mondays end up with slightly lower average ticket prices than every other day of the week, aside from Wednesdays.

Average Ticket Prices (High to Low): Tuesday/Thursday/Friday > Saturday/Sunday > Monday > Wednesday.

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Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:35 am
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Oh ok well ¥174 million is still more than I thought it was going to do.

So the actuals will be tomorrow now instead?


Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:54 am
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Corpse wrote:
Avatar "only" made ¥3 billion more after its tenth weekend; Your Name. grossed ¥7.84 billion more after its tenth weekend.

It's hard, or inaccurate rather, to make projections for films based on how past films performed after so many weekends in release though. There are many variables to consider. The best method of doing this is to find a previous film released around the same time of the year. But... Bohemian Rhapsody is performing better than any film recorded before, so, I don't think we can really project anything this way.


I've no idea how I got 5 and 10 then... I was so sure I was looking at the right numbers! :blink:

Anyway, it'll be a fun couple months anyway


Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:01 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Hi Corpse, I have a question. I noticed that Box Office Mojo has higher USD gross reported for Grinderwald. At first, I thought it was because of the dumb thing they do with the exchange rate, but they have different numbers in yen as well.

For the weekend of January 5-6th, they have that FB total gross was ¥6,271,551,997 while you had
¥6,171,452,900. They also have a slightly different number for that weekend itself (¥130,781,764). I know Mojo isn't that reliable but why do you think that difference happen?

See here: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japa ... cal&p=.htm


Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:56 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Yes. BOM gets their local currency figures, based on my calculations, by converting USD figures to local currently figures, when it should be the opposite. I don't know why they don't just use Rentrak.

And any different USD figures comes from exchange rate fluctuations, and there was a sizable change in mid-late December. For most of the Fall, and up until about a month ago, the rate was consistently between 112-114. But that quickly fell in late December until it reached 106/107 on the first few days of January. That's about a 7% difference in just a two-week span, and can really affect box office numbers if not calculated correctly.

So, any film released before mid/late-December will have higher, inaccurate, USD totals on BOM due to them using the most recent exchange rate when converting numbers.

For example, Fantastic Beasts 2 was at ¥6,171,452,900 last week. Over the course of its seven week run up to that number, it resulted in a USD total of about $55.0 million when you convert its weekly figures in yen on a weekly basis. However, if you suddenly plug that total into a converter using the most recent exchange rate, it suddenly becomes $56.8 million.

Any time a film is still ranking well on the charts for months on end, they're prone to many mistakes over at BOM due to a likely big change in the exchange rate at some point during its run. One of the best examples I share with people is Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone. BOM did a very poor job tracking it, due to their conversion practice, and have it much too low. On their site, it basically has the same total ($152/153 million) for four weeks in a row near the end of its run (same in Yen):

Mar. 9–10 8 $523,826 -3.7% 187 +3 $2,801 $153,034,804 15
Mar. 16–17 8 $338,365 -35.4% 177 -10 $1,912 $152,531,812 16
Mar. 23–24 10 $269,429 -20.4% 166 -11 $1,623 $152,801,241 17
Mar. 30–31 9 $270,428 +0.4% 149 -17 $1,815 $152,993,493 18

In this extreme case, I went back week-by-week and determined it earned ~$160.7 million.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:41 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Part 2: (I didn't want that post to get any longer!)

You'll notice when I do my weekly chart updates (Top Opening Weekends/Top Grossing Films) that some films that rank higher for the year in Yen, actually rank lower in USD, or vice-versa. This is all due to how the exchange rate affect the numbers.

Also, another thing to watch at BOM is when a film reenters the charts due to an expansion of some sort, say around award season or due to a premium format release, months after it fell off the charts. It's very unlikely that the exchange rate is comparable from the time it left the charts to the time it reenters, so its total is probably going to be way, way off.

And finally... BOM also doesn't track, or update, films once they fall too far off the charts, sometimes even once they leave the Top 10. Most films tend to stay in release for a long time in Japan, so a lot of earnings are missed there. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone is, yet again, a good example here. It ran much longer than the 18 weeks that BOM has.

This isn't really an attack at how BOM does things. I don't expect them to keep track of the exchange rate on a weekly basis for every country, obviously, or continue to track films for half-a-year or longer once they leave the Top 10. I just consider BOM to be a... source to get rough estimates when they're unavailable otherwise.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:49 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Thank you! I knew how unreliable Mojo was when ER are involved but I didn't know about the local currency thing.

Another thing if you don't mind. I found these yearly rankings from Eiga https://eiga.com/news/20181231/3/ and Coco appears with 5 billion yen. Are they rounding or is like you said a long time ago that it could still reach the milestone after tracking stopped?


Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:41 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
BOM is McDonald's, Corpse is Le Bernardin.


Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:59 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
On the mimorin site what do 消化 95分率 these two mean?


Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:21 am
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Looks like Broly has made ¥3,638,122,200 with 2.82 million tickets sold.


Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:48 am
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
I'm going to be riskier this year so I'll declare myself #TeamBroly¥4Billion


Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:28 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
My first post, but with Aquaman overperforming in many Asian places, what is it expected to perform in Japan and what is the buzz online?


Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:50 am
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Japan Academy Prize nomination announced
https://www.japan-academy-prize.jp/prizes/42.html


Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:04 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
kaoras232 wrote:
Thank you! I knew how unreliable Mojo was when ER are involved but I didn't know about the local currency thing.

Another thing if you don't mind. I found these yearly rankings from Eiga https://eiga.com/news/20181231/3/ and Coco appears with 5 billion yen. Are they rounding or is like you said a long time ago that it could still reach the milestone after tracking stopped?


I'm going to assume it's a rounded figure. Eiga is a very official site, but they're also the only source I know of that has put it at ¥5 billion (all others have ¥4.9 billion). We'll know for certain its final total when Eiren releases the yearly results in two weeks.

Saikyo no Senshi wrote:
On the mimorin site what do 消化 95分率 these two mean?


95%. It's the estimated percentage of showings that are being accounted for from the usual locations. A few theaters in Japan operate on a 20/21 hour schedule (7/8AM-3/4AM), and have showtimes that begin after midnight, even as late as 2AM/3AM, so these showings are excluded.

bullza wrote:
Looks like Broly has made ¥3,638,122,200 with 2.82 million tickets sold.


Correct. :thumbsup:

About half of the weekend grosses and most of the cumulative totals have been released, but I'm going to wait a few more hours before posting the Weekend Actuals so more numbers are available.

lafayettecalboy wrote:
My first post, but with Aquaman overperforming in many Asian places, what is it expected to perform in Japan and what is the buzz online?


Welcome to the forum!

Online interest is solid, but definitely exercise caution with Marvel/DC films. It's likely to fall into the standard debut and total range of ¥250-350 million and ¥1.3-1.9 billion that most Marvel/DC films do. That said, it does have a bit of a novelty factor (underwater setting) going for it, and big international numbers also helps in the market. I think it'll perform on the high-end of that standard range I mentioned.

pookpooi wrote:
Japan Academy Prize nomination announced
https://www.japan-academy-prize.jp/prizes/42.html


Yes. I'll have more information about them. But a quick note: 20th Century Fox scored an incredible 4 out of 5 nominations in the Best Foreign Picture category. That's a record.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:24 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Corpse, I have a few questions about some slightly older fantasy/science-fiction films. Do you know the attendance and gross for the '90s Gamera Trilogy [Gamera: Guardian of the Universe (1995) Gamera 2: Attack of Legion (1996), and Gamera 3: The Revenge of Iris (1999)]? It's difficult to find reliable numbers for these movies. For example, Variety says The Revenge of Iris made $15 million and Toho Kingdom says $5 million. I'm curious to see how the trilogy held against the Godzilla films of the same decade.

Next, I'm trying to tally the attendance and gross for the Evangelion films. You gave me the numbers for Rebuild earlier. But how well did Death & Rebirth (1997) and The End of Evangelion (1997) perform in the late '90s? As far as anime franchises go, I know that Doraemon, Pokemon, and Dragon Ball all beat it. Though how far are they ahead?

And did you ever find numbers for Mothra (1961)? :sweat:


Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:30 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
fiery_cockatrice wrote:
Corpse, I have a few questions about some slightly older fantasy/science-fiction films. Do you know the attendance and gross for the '90s Gamera Trilogy [Gamera: Guardian of the Universe (1995) Gamera 2: Attack of Legion (1996), and Gamera 3: The Revenge of Iris (1999)]? It's difficult to find reliable numbers for these movies. For example, Variety says The Revenge of Iris made $15 million and Toho Kingdom says $5 million. I'm curious to see how the trilogy held against the Godzilla films of the same decade.

Next, I'm trying to tally the attendance and gross for the Evangelion films. You gave me the numbers for Rebuild earlier. But how well did Death & Rebirth (1997) and The End of Evangelion (1997) perform in the late '90s? As far as anime franchises go, I know that Doraemon, Pokemon, and Dragon Ball all beat it. Though how far are they ahead?

And did you ever find numbers for Mothra (1961)? :sweat:


I second this request.


Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:23 pm
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