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 Japan Box-Office: WKND Estimates (09/19-20) & Monday Ests. 
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Speed Racer

Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 9:13 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/0
Looks like BoRhap is barely dropping any showings this weekend

Ralph dropping from 420k on thursday to 310k on saturday
Broly down from 290k to 180k

Creed gets 312k, less than BR


Thu Jan 10, 2019 8:27 pm
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/0
I'm wondering if Fox will continue to distribute Dragon Ball (and any other movies that it doesn't make) under the name 'Fox' after acquired by Disney. It'll continue as a film production for sure but the distribution role seems to be overlapped with Disney.


Fri Jan 11, 2019 1:24 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (01/0
Well, in Japan it'll continue to be Toei since they made the film. Worldwide... I don't know. My guess would be Disney considering their name/brand is probably more significant than Fox.

I'll have the Weekend Forecast posted soon.

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Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:56 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/12-13)
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Weekend Forecast (01/12-13)
01 (---) ¥425,000,000 ($3.9 million), 0, ¥425,000,000 ($3.9 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex) NEW
02 (01) ¥319,000,000 ($2.9 million), -05%, ¥9,125,000,000 ($81.5 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK10
03 (02) ¥209,000,000 ($1.9 million), -29%, ¥3,075,000,000 ($28.2 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) WK4
04 (---) ¥125,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥155,000,000 ($1.4 million), Creed II (Warner Bros.) NEW
05 (03) ¥100,000,000 ($920,000), -40%, ¥3,550,000,000 ($32.0 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK5
06 (07) ¥x87,000,000 ($800,000), -12%, ¥450,000,000 ($4.1 million), Love! Live Sunshine!! Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) WK2
07 (05) ¥x84,000,000 ($775,000), -32%, ¥760,000,000 ($7.0 million), A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Toho) WK3
08 (04) ¥x76,000,000 ($700,000), -41%, ¥6,330,000,000 ($56.5 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK8
09 (08) ¥x74,000,000 ($680,000), -23%, ¥1,075,000,000 ($9.7 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) WK4
10 (06) ¥x61,000,000 ($560,000), -39%, ¥1,340,000,000 ($12.1 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) WK3


Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel - II is aiming to debut in high fashion, having already sold through 38% of its available tickets ahead of the weekend. It's playing on only 131 screens. Its pre-sales are almost identical to the first film (1% higher), which is very impressive because sequels in these multi-part animated series' rarely match the success of the first film. If it does end up opening on par, or even higher than, the original, it's a testament to the loyalty and size of this franchise's devoted fanbase.

Bohemian Rhapsody... It appears to be headed for a mostly flat weekend, again, in its tenth weekend of release. If the forecast is accurate, it'll end up achieving the sixth or seventh biggest tenth weekend on record. Its ten week multiplier will also be the highest on record (25.75) for any film after ten weeks in release. There's still no stopping this film at the box office.

Creed II is looking good for a Top 4 debut, and based on early numbers, it'll more than double (possibly triple) the opening weekend of the first film. That does sound very impressive (and it is), but the first film didn't receive nearly as wide of a release as the new film, so it's not fair to compare the two films, unfortunately.

Dragon Ball Super: Broly will probably see another fairly steep decline, and that's unlikely to change for the duration of its run. Not unexpected, of course, and it's still on track to surpass its predecessor to become the highest grossing film in the franchise.

A Star is Born really could have used some more Golden Globes love, and unless it begins to sweep at the guilds, and finally at the Academy Awards, I'm afraid its run will soon come to an end in the market. Poorly timed release, it should have been in February or March.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:46 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Tenth Weekends
Biggest Tenth Weekends/Ten Week Totals (2000-)

¥807.1 million ($7.9 million), +09%, ¥18.53 billion ($181.8 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥510.0 million ($4.6 million), -21%, ¥22.40 billion ($183.7 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥381.5 million ($3.6 million), -20%, ¥17.19 billion ($167.1 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥359.4 million ($4.0 million), -11%, ¥12.60 billion ($141.5 million) - Avatar (2009)
¥349.1 million ($2.7 million), +18%, ¥18.48 billion ($140.6 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥319.0 million ($2.9 million), -05%, ¥9.13 billion ($81.5 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) *Forecast*
¥310.5 million ($3.0 million), -10%, ¥16.42 billion ($160.1 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥289.6 million ($2.7 million), -31%, ¥11.15 billion ($105.7 million) - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥225.2 million ($1.8 million), -41%, ¥15.86 billion ($137.6 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥213.3 million ($1.8 million), -23%, ¥15.78 billion ($134.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥207.0 million ($1.8 million), -05%, ¥11.81 billion ($104.6 million) - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥184.9 million ($1.9 million), -43%, ¥11.08 billion ($113.4 million) - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥178.4 million ($1.6 million), -11%, ¥12.37 billion ($112.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥171.5 million ($1.7 million), -14%, ¥7.20 billion ($66.7 million) - Zootopia (2016)
¥154.9 million ($1.5 million), -40%, ¥14.31 billion ($133.3 million) - Ponyo (2008)

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:07 pm
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/12-13)
Will the movies increase on Sunday or it will decrease like last week?


Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:28 am
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/12-13)
Monday is a holiday so most likely increase.


Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:01 am
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/12-13)
So is it just going to be a better than normal Monday or similar to like today.


Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:17 am
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/12-13)
bullza wrote:
So is it just going to be a better than normal Monday or similar to like today.


It's a national holiday, so I think many schools and work are off, should see big increases across the board I think.

@Corpse will confirm though :)


Sat Jan 12, 2019 7:38 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/12-13)
When Monday is a national holiday, then Sundays tend to be a bit stronger than normal due to an increase in evening business. And holiday Mondays are comparable to a Saturday or Sunday.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:14 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest January Opening Weekends
Biggest January Opening Weekends (1998-)

01. ¥622.1 million ($7.0 million) / 556,354 - 20th Century Boys - Chapter 2: The Last Hope (2009)
02. ¥615.9 million ($5.2 million) / 465,956 - Nobunaga Concerto (2016)
03. ¥603.1 million ($5.2 million) / 438,000 - Flightplan (2006)
04. ¥592.8 million ($7.2 million) / 454,220 - Gantz (2011)
05. ¥585.4 million ($6.5 million) / 433,000 - Quantum of Solace (2009)
06. ¥567.3 million ($5.0 million) / 415,723 - The Uchoten Hotel (2006)
07. ¥554.6 million ($7.2 million) / 421,274 - Always: Sunset on Third Street '64 (2012)
08. ¥552.4 million ($5.3 million) / 409,112 - Ocean's Twelve (2005)
09. ¥456.7 million ($5.3 million) / 357,976 - Hunter × Hunter: Phantom Rouge (2013)
10. ¥452.4 million ($3.7 million) / 335,800 - Dororo (2007)
11. ¥439.0 million ($4.9 million) / 387,188 - Mamma Mia! (2009)
12. ¥398.6 million ($3.7 million) / 292,000 - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (2008)
13. ¥358.7 million ($3.2 million) / 285,000 - Earth (2008)


Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly is probably going to reach ¥400 million this weekend, and while that won't earn it a high ranking on the January Opening Weekend Chart, it's still very impressive for the film itself, especially since it's only on 131 screens.

January isn't a notable month for big debuts; in fact, it's the second weakest in terms of debuts (ahead of only October), so whenever a film even manages to approach the top ten, it's at least worth mentioning.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:42 am
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/12-13)
Broly is still doing really good on Sunday, it's down about 18% from last week and that figure keeps dropping as time goes on.


Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:16 am
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/12-13)
Jesus, looks like Bohemian Rhapsody is actually going to increase again.


Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:18 am
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/12-13)
Cynosure wrote:
Jesus, looks like Bohemian Rhapsody is actually going to increase again.


Indeed, by my calculations, if it hits 110k today on Mimorin, then it has a serious chance to be the 3rd best 10th weekend, AHEAD of Your Name. and Avatar! :yummy: :noway:

It may also pull an upset to Fate/stay night by achieving yet another weekend #1, though I'm not sure how young it skews (if at all).


Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:26 am
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/12-13)
I think Avatar is done and dusted, BR 99% has the 4th best 10th weekend. Your Name. will depend on actuals I think!


Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:10 am
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/12-13)
Last week BR had 159,153 at usual locations, this week is looking like ~181.5k, applying that 14% increase to the actuals last week gives:

Bohemian Rhapsody Weekend 10: ¥382,852,000

Just a smidgen above Your Name.! So it'll be very close who get's that prestigious 3rd best 10th weekend :D


Last edited by feasby007 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:58 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/12-13)
Dragon Ball Super Brolys Mimorin ticket sales are at 49,300 for the weekend. That's about 67.5% of last weekend.

So it could be at like ¥112 million. That'd be pretty good.


Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:10 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (01/12-13)
Very nice weekend thanks to a very strong Sunday (due to Monday being a holiday). And yeah, Bohemian Rhapsody pulled off another increase. Its tenth weekend will end up being higher than its opening weekend (and among a few other of its past weekends).

I'll have Weekend Estimates up soon.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:37 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
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Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
01 (---) ¥410,000,000 ($3.8 million), 0, ¥410,000,000 ($3.8 million), Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex) NEW
02 (01) ¥402,000,000 ($3.7 million), +20%, ¥9,205,000,000 ($82.2 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK10
03 (02) ¥235,000,000 ($2.2 million), -20%, ¥3,100,000,000 ($28.4 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) WK4
04 (03) ¥112,000,000 ($1.0 million), -33%, ¥3,560,000,000 ($32.1 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK5
05 (---) ¥x90,000,000 ($830,000), 0, ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), Creed II (Warner Bros.) NEW
06 (05) ¥x86,000,000 ($795,000), -30%, ¥760,000,000 ($7.0 million), A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Toho) WK3
07 (04) ¥x85,000,000 ($785,000), -33%, ¥6,340,000,000 ($56.6 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK8
08 (07) ¥x84,000,000 ($775,000), -15%, ¥450,000,000 ($4.1 million), Love! Live Sunshine!! Over the Rainbow (Shochiku) WK2
09 (08) ¥x76,000,000 ($700,000), -21%, ¥1,075,000,000 ($9.7 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) WK4
10 (06) ¥x66,000,000 ($610,000), -34%, ¥1,345,000,000 ($12.2 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) WK3


A very close battle for the #1 spot this weekend between the debut of Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel - II (which sold though 51% of its available tickets) and the tenth weekend for Bohemian Rhapsody which increased once again (its fifth time doing so). I'm betting on Fate/stay night to edge out a victory in gross due to its very high average ticket price, but Bohemian Rhapsody will almost certainly come out on top in admissions.

Creed II looks to have settled for a #5 debut, and while it's a bit of a disappointing result, especially since I doubt it reached ¥100 million, it's still much more than the original (more than double) due to a much wide release.

Dragon Ball Super: Broly held well, and any small chance that remained of it failing to outgross Resurrection F to become the highest grossing film in the franchise are pretty much gone now. It still won't reach ¥4 billion, but it'll comfortably break ¥3.8 billion now I believe.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:55 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Bohemian Rhapsody Weekly Performance
Bohemian Rhapsody - Weekly Performance
WK01: ¥354.3 million ($3.2 million)
WK02: ¥388.5 million ($3.4 million), +10%, ¥1.321 billion ($11.7 million)
WK03: ¥395.0 million ($3.5 million), +02%, ¥2.336 billion ($20.8 million)
WK04: ¥496.0 million ($4.4 million), +26%, ¥3.323 billion ($29.4 million)
WK05: ¥505.1 million ($4.5 million), +02%, ¥4.394 billion ($38.9 million)
WK06: ¥431.5 million ($3.8 million), -15%, ¥5.362 billion ($47.4 million)
WK07: ¥389.1 million ($3.5 million), -10%, ¥6.255 billion ($55.3 million)
WK08: ¥364.0 million ($3.3 million), -07%, ¥7.200 billion ($63.8 million)
WK09: ¥335.8 million ($3.1 million), -08%, ¥8.457 billion ($75.3 million)
WK10: ¥402.0 million ($3.7 million), +20%, ¥9.205 billion ($82.2 million)


Ain't no stopping it.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:57 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Tenth Weekends
Biggest Tenth Weekends/Ten Week Totals (2000-)

¥807.1 million ($7.9 million), +09%, ¥18.53 billion ($181.8 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥510.0 million ($4.6 million), -21%, ¥22.40 billion ($183.7 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥402.0 million ($3.7 million), +20%, ¥9.21 billion ($82.2 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) *Estimate*
¥381.5 million ($3.6 million), -20%, ¥17.19 billion ($167.1 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥359.4 million ($4.0 million), -11%, ¥12.60 billion ($141.5 million) - Avatar (2009)
¥349.1 million ($2.7 million), +18%, ¥18.48 billion ($140.6 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥310.5 million ($3.0 million), -10%, ¥16.42 billion ($160.1 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥289.6 million ($2.7 million), -31%, ¥11.15 billion ($105.7 million) - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥225.2 million ($1.8 million), -41%, ¥15.86 billion ($137.6 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥213.3 million ($1.8 million), -23%, ¥15.78 billion ($134.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥207.0 million ($1.8 million), -05%, ¥11.81 billion ($104.6 million) - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥184.9 million ($1.9 million), -43%, ¥11.08 billion ($113.4 million) - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥178.4 million ($1.6 million), -11%, ¥12.37 billion ($112.7 million) - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥171.5 million ($1.7 million), -14%, ¥7.20 billion ($66.7 million) - Zootopia (2016)
¥154.9 million ($1.5 million), -40%, ¥14.31 billion ($133.3 million) - Ponyo (2008)


Absolutely bonkers.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Post Re: Japan Box Office: All Time Multipliers
All-Time Best Multipliers (Wide Releases; ¥1 Billion Earners) [1998-]

01. x33.34 - Frozen (Mar., 2014)
02. x30.37 - Spirited Away (July, 2001)
03. x26.99 - Princess Mononoke (July, 1997)
04. x26.92 - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
05. x26.13 - Avatar (Dec., 2009)
06. x25.98 - Bohemian Rhapsody (Nov., 2018) [10 Weeks in Release] *Est.*
07. x23.21 - Departures (Sept., 2008)
08. x19.96 - Les Miserables (Dec., 2012)
09. x17.07 - Zootopia (Apr., 2016)
10. x16.44 - The Cat Returns (July, 2002)
11. x16.15 - The Eternal Zero (Dec., 2013)
12. x15.69 - Monsters, Inc. (Mar., 2002)
13. x15.29 - Big Hero 6 (Dec., 2014)
14. x15.25 - The Last Samurai (Dec., 2003)
15. x14.98 - Ponyo (July, 2008)
16. x14.84 - Howl's Moving Castle (Nov., 2004)
17. x14.81 - Always: Sunset on Third Street (Nov., 2005)
18. x14.25 - Confessions (June, 2010)
19. x13.96 - Let Me Eat Your Pancreas (July, 2017)
19. x13.96 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (July, 2003)
21. x13.83 - Thermae Romae (Apr., 2012)
22. x13.64 - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (May, 2004)
23. x13.34 - The Greatest Showman (Feb., 2018)
24. x13.20 - Shin Godzilla (July, 2016)
25. x13.09 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Dec., 2001)
26. x12.98 - Summer Wars (Aug., 2009)
27. x12.88 - Ted (Jan., 2013)
28. x12.51 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013)
29. x12.50 - The Phantom of the Opera (Jan., 2005)
30. x12.48 - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (Aug., 2003)
31. x12.24 - Finding Nemo (Dec., 2003)
32. x12.21 - Despicable Me 3 (July, 2017)
33. x12.16 - Wolf Children (July, 2012)


Entries By Month: July (10); December (7); August (3); November (3); January (2); March (2); April (2); February (1); May (1); June (1); September (1); October (0).

It's going to surpass Avatar, Your Name., and Princess Mononoke in one swoop next weekend. I also believe it'll eventually beat Spirited Away, and it'll certainly challenge Frozen for the best ever recorded multiplier.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:01 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Congratulations on 11,000 posts! :clap: :clap: :clap:

And absolute madness for BR


Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:25 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
It'd be awkward if Bohemian will still be around when Detective Conan Movie 23 released!


Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:43 pm
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Angels & Demons
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Joined: Mon Jan 30, 2017 8:01 pm
Posts: 225
Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (01/12-13)
Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I think beating Frozen's multiplier is a done deal. I don't see how BR misses ¥12 billion with this hold. This weekend may have been inflated by a holiday (and award boost is usually strongest immediately after the win), but BR has never had a weekend drop bigger than 15% yet. From what I can tell, the home release isn't until March 31. So it has plenty of time left to remain in the Top 5 or 10.


Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:23 pm
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