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 Japan Box Office: Makoto Shinkai's "Weathering With You" 
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Don't Dream It, Be It
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/1
The theater share is pretty fixed, but the percentage share is not. It varies based on many factors, including: distributor, genre of film, premium format or not, animated or not, and overall demographic as the main ones.

Generally, the more adult a film skews, the better it performs in urban locations where the majority of the theaters at the usual locations on mimorin. And the more a film skews toward most other groups, especially family/children, but also other groups such as seniors, the worse they tend to perform in urban locations, but the better they perform in rural locations (many rural locations aren't accounted for on mimorin).

Dragon Ball Super: Broly is an animated Toei release (two of the big factors I mentioned above), so the usual locations at mimorin will represent less of its overall admissions. It's an animated film released by Toei, and both animated films and Toei released usually perform better, percentage-wise, in rural locations versus urban locations.

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Thu Dec 20, 2018 7:51 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/1
And if it helps you with projections, because I know how interested you and some others here are in the new Dragon Ball film, here is a rough "multiplier guide" I created and frequently use:

x1.2: Very limited releases that are primarily showing in cities, namely Tokyo.
x1.3: Very adult (25-50 year-old) skewing films; male skewing; high premium format share; more limited releases.
x1.4: Teen/young adult skewing films; female skewing; fanbase films; solid premium format share.
x1.5: Broad appealing films; even share of premium-to-standard format share.
x1.6: Young/family skewing films; senior skewing films; animated films; low premium format share.
x1.7: Extremely young skewing films; larger presence in rural locations than urban locations.

This method can also help determine which demographics are turning out for any individual film, and when combined with how a film performs throughout the day (comparing ticket sales by time of day), it's pretty easily to understand who's seeing what, when, and where.

Dragon Ball Super: Broly got a 1.57 over its opening weekend (407,000, its usual locations admissions/639,000, its overall admissions). This was a little higher than I was expecting, but it had a low premium format share, so not unexpected and this is about how a film of its type typically performs.

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Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:05 pm
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/1
So it was a 1.57 for Saturday and Sunday but for Monday to Wednesday it was at 96,000 for its usual locations but did 187,000 admissions so that would be 1.95.

Why is it that different? So for this upcoming weekend would we have to use the 1.57 again to get an estimate or could it be yet another number again?


Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:08 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/1
Broly pre-sales for the weekend are down 65%.

Conan pre-sales on its second weekend were down 57,7% and it ended up falling 37% with actuals. A similar multiplier would have Broly falling 41-42% which would lead to a 470-480 million yen weekend. If it doesn't drop proportionnally but also falls 20% points less than pre-sales, that would mean a 45% drop for a 440-450 million yen weekend.

Resurrection F fell 51,6% in its 2nd weekend. BOG fell 37,7%.


Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:05 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/1
bullza wrote:
So it was a 1.57 for Saturday and Sunday but for Monday to Wednesday it was at 96,000 for its usual locations but did 187,000 admissions so that would be 1.95.

Why is it that different? So for this upcoming weekend would we have to use the 1.57 again to get an estimate or could it be yet another number again?


A few less theaters are accounted for on the weekdays, so the multiplier is generally higher. Over the weekend, it usually stays pretty consistent, but various factors can affect it (such as losing IMAX or a shift in showings).

Cynosure wrote:
Broly pre-sales for the weekend are down 65%.

Conan pre-sales on its second weekend were down 57,7% and it ended up falling 37% with actuals. A similar multiplier would have Broly falling 41-42% which would lead to a 470-480 million yen weekend. If it doesn't drop proportionnally but also falls 20% points less than pre-sales, that would mean a 45% drop for a 440-450 million yen weekend.

Resurrection F fell 51,6% in its 2nd weekend. BOG fell 37,7%.


A drop between the last two films, probably closer to Resurrection F than Battle of Gods, seems like a good prediction right now.

I'll have the Weekend Forecast posted a bit later this evening.

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Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:34 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (12/1
I'd hope for a better drop than Resurrection F because that did open on a Saturday.

Resurrection F's second weekend was ¥466 million. Not sure if Broly can beat that.


Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:04 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
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Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
01 (---) ¥500,000,000 ($4.5 million), 0, ¥595,000,000 ($5.4 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥447,000,000 ($4.0 million), -45%, ¥1,825,000,000 ($16.3 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK2
03 (02) ¥379,000,000 ($3.4 million), -12%, ¥6,200,000,000 ($54.9 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK7
04 (---) ¥375,000,000 ($3.4 million), 0, ¥375,000,000 ($3.4 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) NEW
05 (03) ¥233,000,000 ($2.1 million), -30%, ¥5,075,000,000 ($45.2 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK5
06 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.6 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) NEW
07 (05) ¥177,000,000 ($1.6 million), -20%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), The Grinch (Toho-Towa) WK2
08 (04) ¥156,000,000 ($1.4 million), -38%, ¥475,000,000 ($4.3 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho) WK2
09 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($900,000), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($2.3 million), Nisekoi: False Love (Toho) NEW
10 (06) ¥x66,000,000 ($595,000), -31%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), It Comes (Toho) WK3


Note: Sunday is Emperor's Day, a national holiday, and since it falls on a Sunday this year, then Monday will be declared a national holiday as well.

>Ralph Breaks the Internet appears positioned to debut atop the box office, but it's not going to do so very easily. Its Saturday pre-sales are slightly below Coco and just slightly better than The Incredibles 2, so it could certainly miss the ¥500 million mark considering both of those films also did. However, I'm expecting a strong Sunday for all films since Monday will be a national holiday this year, so I'm going to predict it just barely gets there.

>Dragon Ball Super: Broly will probably slip to second place after its big opening weekend, but Saturday pre-sales suggest it could managed a better second weekend hold than its predecessor, and decline under 50%. This would be particularly important for the film as it heads into the upcoming holidays with the hope of becoming the highest grossing film in the franchise.

>Bohemian Rhapsody at long last seems like it could be slowing down, but definitely not very much, and it'll probably increase next week.

>Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER, the entry in the overall franchise, could debut as high as third place this weekend. The franchise has seen a slight uptick in the past year or two, and this one is tracking a little ahead of last December's release (which opened to ¥359 million).

>A Star is Born may miss the Top 5, or fifth place is as high as it's going to debut. But don't be alarmed. While its Friday results and Saturday pre-sales don't suggest a breakout, a debut around the forecast this time of year would still likely result in a ¥2 billion+ ($20 million) total. Is it possible that Bohemian Rhapsody stunted its potential? Maybe, but I wouldn't have predicted much higher regardless.

>Nisekoi: False Love is going to bomb. Toho was by far the biggest distributor of the year once again, their eleventh or twelfth consecutive year on top, but they've had an incredibly dismal Fall/Winter season.

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Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:21 pm
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
The Yôkai Watch franchise collapse is pretty staggering. This film could make less than the first movie did in its opening weekend just 4 years ago. Looks like Toho will have to go back to the drawing board to find their 4th yearly money-making movie franchise for the New-Year period.


Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:33 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
Is it just me, or do all the drops seem a bit high given the holiday Sunday?


Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:33 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
Only $1.825 billion with a $447 million weekend?

That would mean ¥1.378 billion by Friday and it was said to have been over ¥1.3 billion after 6 days which should be Wednesday.

I'd have thought it would have been over ¥1.4 billion with Thursday and Friday.


Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:37 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
As of 7pm it seems Broly has sold about 45% of the tickets that it had sold by last Saturday at the same time.

Is that good or bad? I imagine the percentage will go up over the weekend more but if it were to hold that'd be a 55% drop.


Sat Dec 22, 2018 6:46 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
It should fall much less tomorrow since Sunday (and thus Monday) is a national holiday. That means it will stay strong in the evening.


Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:52 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
Well by 12am it still did about 45% of last Saturday.

It's gonna have to do much better tomorrow if it's gonna do that ¥447 million.

It should be about ¥174 million today so it'd need about ¥274 million tomorrow.

That'd be about 64% of last Sunday. That seems too big of a jump if today only did 45%. Resurrection F's second Sunday only increased about 23% from its second Saturday.


Sat Dec 22, 2018 11:13 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
It only needs to increase about 30% to make over 400 million yen over the weekend. ¥447 million does seem like a bit of stretch unless it has a huge jump and benefits massively from strong evenings, but it should still have a better second weekend drop than Resurrection F.


Sat Dec 22, 2018 11:45 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
I can't remember if the Monday after Resurrection F's second Sunday was a Golden Week day or not. If it wasn't then it might do better than its 23% increase.

Anything over $394 million for the weekend would give it a better drop than Resurrection F but that should be expected anyway if Resurrection F actually opened on a Saturday.


Sat Dec 22, 2018 1:02 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
It's Sunday is 46.2% of last Sunday at the same time.

It's also 53% higher than yesterday at the same time.

So far still can't see it doing ¥400 million. About ¥370 million at this point.


Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:11 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
It finished with 53% of last Sunday. For the whole weekend it did 200,000 to last weekends 407,000 so 49%.

So if the ticket price was the same as last weekend then it will make ¥400 million.


Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:12 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)


So putting that in Google means ¥411 million for the weekend and ¥1.832 billion total.


Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:22 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (12/22-23)
Looks pretty accurate, but you can't exactly plug cumulative totals into an exchange rate converter because of how rates change on a daily/weekly basis. This is how BOM and other non-local sources have many messed up USD totals on their sites.

Since no actuals will be released for a day or two, due to Emperor's Day making Monday a national holiday, I'll have the normal weekend estimates up soon, as well as an extended 3-day estimates for the holiday weekend.

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Mon Dec 24, 2018 9:23 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/22-23, 24)
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Weekend Estimates (12/22-23)
01 (---) ¥485,000,000 ($4.4 million), 0, ¥580,000,000 ($5.2 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) NEW
02 (01) ¥414,000,000 ($3.7 million), -49%, ¥1,825,000,000 ($16.3 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK2
03 (02) ¥406,000,000 ($3.6 million), -06%, ¥6,225,000,000 ($55.1 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK7
04 (---) ¥375,000,000 ($3.4 million), 0, ¥375,000,000 ($3.4 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) NEW
05 (03) ¥233,000,000 ($2.1 million), -30%, ¥5,075,000,000 ($45.2 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK5
06 (---) ¥185,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥245,000,000 ($2.2 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) NEW
07 (05) ¥148,000,000 ($1.3 million), -32%, ¥525,000,000 ($4.7 million), The Grinch (Toho-Towa) WK2
08 (04) ¥136,000,000 ($1.2 million), -46%, ¥450,000,000 ($4.1 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho) WK2
09 (---) ¥x75,000,000 ($675,000), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($945,000), Nisekoi: False Love (Toho) NEW
10 (06) ¥x59,000,000 ($530,000), -39%, ¥550,000,000 ($4.9 million), It Comes (Toho) WK3


3-Day Emperor's Day Holiday Weekend Estimates (12/22-24)
01 (---) ¥765,000,000 ($6.9 million), 0, ¥860,000,000 ($7.7 million), Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney) NEW
02 (02) ¥592,000,000 ($5.3 million), +38%, ¥6,405,000,000 ($56.7 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK7
03 (01) ¥591,000,000 ($5.3 million), -27%, ¥2,000,000,000 ($17.9 million), Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei) WK2
04 (---) ¥520,000,000 ($4.7 million), 0, ¥520,000,000 ($4.7 million), Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei) NEW
05 (03) ¥357,000,000 ($3.2 million), +07%, ¥5,200,000,000 ($46.3 million), Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.) WK5
06 (---) ¥280,000,000 ($2.6 million), 0, ¥340,000,000 ($3.1 million), A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) NEW
07 (05) ¥254,000,000 ($2.3 million), +15%, ¥630,000,000 ($5.7 million), The Grinch (Toho-Towa) WK2
08 (04) ¥211,000,000 ($1.9 million), -16%, ¥525,000,000 ($4.8 million), Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho) WK2
09 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), Nisekoi: False Love (Toho) NEW
10 (06) ¥x86,000,000 ($773,000), --09%, ¥575,000,000 ($5.2 million), It Comes (Toho) WK3


>Ralph Breaks the Internet opens about on par with Coco and The Incredibles 2. It'll have strong legs, but I'm doubtful that it'll match the excellent legs of either Pixar releases this year. I'm expecting a finish around ¥4 billion ($35 million) rather than ¥4.8/4.9 billion. This would be a nice 30-35% increase over the original film, but this would also become Walt Disney Animation's fourth-consecutive decrease in the market (Frozen > Big Hero 6 > Zootopia > Moana > Ralph 2).

>Dragon Ball Super: Broly fell a little higher than expected going into the weekend, but it still held slightly better than its predecessor. A total around ¥3.5 billion ($30 million) is still the likely target, but let's see if the upcoming New Year boost can give it enough of a boost to outgross Resurrection's F's ¥3.74 billion to become the highest grossing film in the franchise.

>Bohemian Rhapsody declines for a second week, but... it experienced a single digit drop, and thanks to Monday, it's probably up for the overall week. It's showing some hints, not signs yet, of slowing down (its seventh weekend is still bigger than its opening, second, and third weekends!), but it's still difficult to project where the film is headed. A total around ¥10 billion ($90 million) seems attainable, and I'll be close to declaring it a lock if it has one more week like this.

>Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER came in above the previous two films this past year, and was up a bit over last December's release as well. Very impressive, and even though the franchise is one of the most frontloaded, it'll exceed ¥1 billion pretty easily once again. This release marks the 61st theatrical release in the long-running series.

>A Star is Born got off to a rather slow start. It'll have great legs due to the time of year and given its genre, but ¥2 billion (a bit under $20 million) is probably the ceiling. I feel like this film would have benefited more with a March/April release, the typical season that Oscar films are released in Japan. I wouldn't be surprised if it simply being an award contender instead of a winner right now will ultimately limit it.

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Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:11 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Seventh Weekends
Biggest Seventh Weekends/Seven Week Totals (2001-)

¥785.0 million ($6.5 million), -14%, ¥17.13 billion ($150.8 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥772.1 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥767.4 million ($5.7 million), -22%, ¥15.91 billion ($120.6 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥731.9 million ($6.1 million), +13%, ¥13.61 billion ($114.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥703.8 million ($6.9 million), +13%, ¥12.88 billion ($125.8 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥700.9 million ($6.8 million), -11%, ¥14.21 billion ($138.5 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥571.5 million ($6.2 million), -16%, ¥9.64 billion ($106.3 million) - Avatar (2009)
¥543.9 million ($4.5 million), -10%, ¥13.51 billion ($115.5 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥513.2 million ($4.8 million), -11%, ¥12.73 billion ($118.1 million) - Ponyo (2008)
¥411.2 million ($3.9 million), -32%, ¥9.16 billion ($86.4 million) - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥406.0 million ($3.6 million), -06%, ¥6.23 billion ($55.1 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) *Est.*
¥350.6 million ($3.2 million), -20%, ¥6.03 billion ($56.0 million) - Zootopia (2016)
¥348.8 million ($3.1 million), -40%, ¥9.55 billion ($83.4 million) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥338.9 million ($3.5 million), +06%, ¥8.85 billion ($90.7 million) - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥334.0 million ($3.3 million), -11%, ¥6.67 billion ($64.5 million) - The Eternal Zero (2013)
¥317.8 million ($2.4 million), -30%, ¥7.43 billion ($56.5 million) - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥310.6 million ($2.9 million), -42%, ¥9.57 billion ($90.3 million) - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥306.7 million ($2.6 million), -12%, ¥7.57 billion ($64.5 million) - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥306.1 million ($2.7 million), -12%, ¥10.38 billion ($91.9 million) - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥302.3 million ($2.7 million), -17%, ¥6.14 billion ($57.3 million) - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)

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Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:21 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Bohemian Rhapsody Weekly Performance
Bohemian Rhapsody - Weekly Performance
WK1: ¥354.3 million ($3.2 million)
WK2: ¥388.5 million ($3.4 million), +10%, ¥1.321 billion ($11.7 million)
WK3: ¥395.0 million ($3.5 million), +02%, ¥2.336 billion ($20.8 million)
WK4: ¥496.0 million ($4.4 million), +26%, ¥3.323 billion ($29.4 million)
WK5: ¥505.1 million ($4.5 million), +02%, ¥4.394 billion ($38.9 million)
WK6: ¥431.5 million ($3.8 million), -15%, ¥5.362 billion ($47.4 million)
WK7: ¥406.0 million ($3.6 million), -06%, ¥6.225 billion ($55.1 million) *Est.*


So Far: Weekend Gross (47.8%) / Weekday Gross (52.2%)

Best Multipliers After 7 Weeks/Final Mutiplier:
17.57/??.?? - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018) *Est.*
17.04/30.37 - Spirited Away (2001)
16.15/26.13 - Avatar (2009)
15.85/33.34 - Frozen (2014)
15.23/26.92 - Your Name. (2016)
14.12/19.96 - Les Miserables (2012)
13.98/26.99 - Princess Mononoke (1997)

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
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Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:29 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/22-23, 24)
If this is at ¥2 billion, then it took 11 days to do so. It took Resurrection F 12 days to reach that. Meaning it's still Infront.

So you're thinking that this will fall off quicker? That Resurrection F is going to benefit more from Golden Week than this movie from the Xmas Holidays?


Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:23 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/22-23, 24)
bullza wrote:
If this is at ¥2 billion, then it took 11 days to do so. It took Resurrection F 12 days to reach that. Meaning it's still Infront.

So you're thinking that this will fall off quicker? That Resurrection F is going to benefit more from Golden Week than this movie from the Xmas Holidays?


Not necessarily. But usually, holidays periods don't offer much of a boost for fanbase driven films, and the Dragon Ball series is one of them. So I just figure Golden Week and New Year will more or less provide a similar benefit.

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Mon Dec 24, 2018 1:27 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (12/22-23, 24)
Corpse wrote:
This would be a nice 30-35% increase over the original film, but this would also become Walt Disney Animation's fourth-consecutive decrease in the market (Frozen > Big Hero 6 > Zootopia > Moana > Ralph 2).


It's a good thing they have Frozen 2 coming out next. I wonder how high that can go. I'm guessing ¥10 billion is locked?


Mon Dec 24, 2018 3:00 pm
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