Lol what's this? I'm pretty sure you made a mistake somewhere. You have the movie dropping 94% on the week of November 7 - 13. That's obviously off. Also you have the movie's overall run ending at ¥19,483,684,291 when we all know that it's pretty much locked to earn over ¥25 billion.

Edit: Nevermind, it's been corrected.

Yeah I guess its fine. I see that you have updated your predictions from when I first saw I do agree with them as an average

You checked the link while I was editting it, and the next week had one zero less so....

Your long-term projection looks reasonable, charlie jat.

Just a few notes for it:

-Dec. 05-11 shouldn't decline that much, and there might be potential there to increase or at least remain flat. The final volume of the manga comes out on 12/04 AND the last episode of the anime will be aired on national primetime on 12/04 as well. Audiences that are catching up with the anime on TV (required viewing before seeing the movie) will come out this week, and the effect of the final volume releasing (thus finishing the story) may also get people to come out and/or get repeat viewings from many fans. (Look for a potential giveaway to be handed out this week, as a thank you to fans and in celebration of the series, too.)

-Jan. 02-08 will likely increase over the previous week. 01/02 and 01/03 are holidays, and the first full week of Jan. is typically stronger than the prior week that begins in Dec.

-Jan. 09-15 won't drop that much this year because Japan's government is working to make most of this week (up through 01/11) a holiday week this year, as an extension of New Year to avoid travel congestion. And 01/11 is also a holiday. So this week might even increase over the first week in Jan., or at the very least stay pretty flat.

And there are new events and specials related to the movie being announced quite often. They could certainly have something special planned (like an exclusive giveaway to moviegoers, which is common) ahead, probably around New Year. Be on the lookout for these particular events.

Sunday was only down 1.6% versus last Sunday, and about 11% versus its first Sunday in admissions... It ended the day with an insane 75.7% sell-rate.

My Sunday estimate is ¥1,375,000,000 ($13.1 million) / 1,150,000 admissions.

Third Weekend estimate: ¥2,540,000,000 ($24.2 million) / 2,020,000 admissions.

All-Time Opening Weekends (2-Day) - REVENUE

01. ¥3,354,392,750 ($31.9 million) - [1400+?] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)
---¥3,041,448,750 ($29.1 million) - [1400+?] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *2nd Weekend*
---¥2,540,000,000 ($24.2 million) - [1400+?] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *3rd Weekend Est.*
02. ¥2,222,854,550 ($18.8 million) - [631] - The Matrix Reloaded (2003) *w/previews*
03. ¥2,068,252,580 ($17.0 million) - [919] - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
04. ¥2,050,745,255 ($16.8 million) - [858] - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002) *w/previews*
05. ¥1,944,562,960 ($16.6 million) - [760] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006) *w/previews*
06. ¥1,879,423,202 ($18.9 million) - [758] - Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (2005) *w/previews*
07. ¥1,871,164,334 ($17.3 million) - [796] - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004) *w/previews*
08. ¥1,644,716,870 ($15.1 million) - [841] - War of the Worlds (2005) *w/previews*
09. ¥1,628,893,000 ($14.0 million) - [408] - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
10. ¥1,617,608,800 ($15.0 million) - [638] - The Matrix Revolutions (2003) *w/previews*
11. ¥1,616,000,000 ($14.9 million) - [878] - Frozen II (2019)
12. ¥1,604,609,245 ($13.5 million) - [639] - Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones (2002) *w/previews*
13. ¥1,550,280,200 ($12.4 million) - [578] - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
14. ¥1,542,985,506 ($14.8 million) - [729] - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004) *w/previews*
15. ¥1,483,804,112 ($14.0 million) - [448] - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
16. ¥1,471,311,021 ($12.2 million) - [881] - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
17. ¥1,456,401,175 ($12.6 million) - [550] - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003) *w/previews*
18. ¥1,463,827,700 ($13.1 million) - [403] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
19. ¥1,377,047,900 ($12.7 million) - [556] - Toy Story 4 (2019)
20. ¥1,372,054,050 ($16.7 million) - [300] - One Piece Film Z (2012)
21. ¥1,327,140,004 ($11.3 million) - [826] - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
22. ¥1,316,539,200 ($14.3 million) - [859] - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
23. ¥1,301,851,375 ($16.4 million) - [922] - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
24. ¥1,295,834,500 ($12.1 million) - [384] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
25. ¥1,286,928,000 ($11.9 million) - [368] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
26. ¥1,263,735,608 ($10.5 million) - [408] - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
27. ¥1,258,095,403 ($11.3 million) - [863] - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
28. ¥1,245,023,900 ($10.3 million) - [958] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
29. ¥1,226,000,000 ($9.6 million) - [760] - Spider-Man (2002)
30. ¥1,225,913,932 ($12.9 million) - [428] - Rookies (2009)
31. ¥1,216,654,000 ($10.8 million) - [1002] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
32. ¥1,209,158,900 ($11.1 million) - [348] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
33. ¥1,208,276,812 ($10.1 million) - [807] - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
34. ¥1,205,116,126 ($14.8 million) - [800] - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
35. ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.0 million) - [448] - Weathering With You (2019)
36. ¥1,155,771,000 ($10.9 million) - [739] - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
37. ¥1,133,513,323 ($14.1 million) - [224] - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (2012)
38. ¥1,125,800,000 ($9.9 million) - [937] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
39. ¥1,122,000,000 ($10.3 million) - [842] - Aladdin (2019)
40. ¥1,096,150,000 ($9.8 million) - [439] - Code Blue (2018)
41. ¥1,084,000,000 ($10.0 million) - [778] - Spider-Man 2 (2004)
42. ¥1,065,362,800 ($9.7 million) - [773] - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
43. ¥1,057,808,800 ($8.7 million) - [434] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
44. ¥1,048,271,900 ($9.3 million) - [989] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017)
45. ¥1,038,295,232 ($11.9 million) - [190] - One Piece Film Strong World (2009)
46. ¥1,037,341,850 ($9.5 million) - [962] - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
47. ¥1,034,459,534 ($9.8 million) - [481] - Ponyo (2008)
48. ¥1,013,719,284 ($8.8 million) - [475] - Hero (2007)
49. ¥1,010,000,000 ($8.9 million) - [318] - Spirited Away (2001)
50. ¥1,005,428,333 ($9.6 million) - [409] - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)


All-Time Opening Weekends (2-Day) - ADMISSIONS

01. 2,509,986 - [1400+?] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)
---2,272,836 - [1400+?] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *2nd Weekend*
---2,020,000 - [1400+?] - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *3rd Weekend Estimate*
02. 1,486,743 - [631] - The Matrix Reloaded (2003) *w/previews*
03. 1,484,916 - [408] - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
04. 1,469,755 - [796] - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004) *w/previews*
05. 1,467,945 - [919] - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
06. 1,421,738 - [760] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006) *w/previews*
07. 1,390,446 - [858] - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002) *w/previews*
08. 1,357,977 - [758] - Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (2005) *w/previews*
09. 1,279,120 - [578] - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
10. 1,210,000 - [878] - Frozen II (2019)
11. 1,198,210 - [729] - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004) *w/previews*
12. 1,190,009 - [841] - War of the Worlds (2005) *w/previews*
13. 1,186,413 - [881] - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
14. 1,144,539 - [403] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
15. 1,140,081 - [300] - One Piece Film Z (2012)
16. 1,138,689 - [639] - Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones (2002) *w/previews*
17. 1,110,913 - [638] - The Matrix Revolutions (2003) *w/previews*
18. 1,104,980 - [448] - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
19. 1,065,264 - [826] - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
20. 1,043,267 - [550] - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003) *w/previews*
21. 1,031,000 - [556] - Toy Story 4 (2019)
22. 1,012,000 - [384] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
23. 987,568 - [368] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
24. 987,387 - [428] - Rookies (2009)
25. 974,577 - [434] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
26. 933,781 - [353] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016)
27. 930,586 - [408] - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
28. 923,711 - [863] - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
29. 921,341 - [807] - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
30. 880,697 - [922] - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
31. 833,190 - [1002] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
32. 830,000 - [448] - Weathering With You (2019)
33. 828,149 - [859] - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
34. 820,830 - [739] - One Piece Film Gold (2016)
35. 819,738 - [190] - One Piece Film Strong World (2009)
36. 812,557 - [481] - Ponyo (2008)
37. 810,918 - [439] - Code Blue (2018)
38. 810,000 - [318] - Spirited Away (2001)
39. 805,350 - [409] - Boys Over Flowers: Final (2008)
40. 800,258 - [958] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥580,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 435,000 *est.*
10/27 - Tues.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000 *est.*
10/28 - Wed.: ¥505,000,000 ($4.8 million) / 405,000 *est.*
10/29 - Thur.: ¥380,000,000 ($3.6 million) / 275,000 *est.*
10/30 - Fri.: ¥515,000,000 ($4.9 million) / 385,000 *est.*
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,165,000,000 ($11.1 million) / 870,000 *est.*
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,375,000,000 ($13.1 million) / 1,150,000 *est.*

17-Day Cumulative Total: ¥15,664,232,550 ($149.2 million) / 11,788,442 *est.*

Excellent, this leaves the 4th weekend in an exciting spot.

Also I need actuals to come in just .8 higher for the totally arbitrary $150M mark I was rooting for.

Or just .31 and I’ll let rounding take care of the rest

I'll add that day for Frozen to the list. In fact, it's probably a little bit higher than 530,000 admissions because Monday is a discount day at Aeon Cinemas (one of the reasons Monday is the strongest weekday in general), which just slightly lowers the average ticket price a bit (usually like 2/3%). I'd estimate more like 540,000/545,000.

Thanks for joining the forum, but also major thanks for checking on this information and sharing it. I doubt I would have remembered it otherwise.

But for Yo-Kai Watch I still believe it falls below 800,000 (and 790,000) on its first day because I'm pretty certain it was announced that Frozen II broke the single day admissions record (at the time...) on its second Sunday (790,000 admissions). And even using those numbers, Sunday was only down about 5%, so it should definitely be over 685,000 for Sunday.

I think it's supposed to add the sell out showings to the usual location numbers, Saturday had a lot more sell outs and being about 14% higher

Thinking ¥1.24Bn on Sunday @Corpse.

It might come in lower than I estimated, but not that low. Assuming it did 1,150,000, that'd give it an average ticket price for the day of ¥1,078. Tickets are discounted to ¥1,100 on discount days, so it can't go lower than that. Even if you would use 1,125,000 for the admissions (low, low end), it'd barely be above ¥1,100 at ¥1,102.

Not all tickets are discounted to ¥1,100, just the general admission fee. So that excludes IMAX (and it's playing on every IMAX screen) and any other premium type showings or seats (some locations have seats that cost more).

Demon Slayer has had a very similar average ticket price as Frozen II (around ¥1,335 or so at similar points in their runs), and Frozen II had an average ticket price of ¥1,164 over its second weekend which also had a discount day land on its Sunday. That should be just about as low as Demon Slayer's avg. ticket price falls this weekend, but it should honestly come in just a little higher since its Saturday share was higher than Frozen II's.

The lowest Sunday should be is ~¥1.31 billion.

I'll update it to 800,000 (and 685,000). And add the Frozen Monday to the list as mentioned here in a bit.

Biggest Single-Days (Admissions) [1998-]

1,270,234 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Saturday)
1,239,752 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Sunday)
1,157,654 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Second Sunday)
~1,150,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Third Sunday, Discount Day)
1,115,182 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Second Saturday)
910,507 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Friday, Opening Day)
~870,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Third Saturday)
~800,000 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (First Saturday, Opening Day)
790,000 - Frozen II (Second Sunday, Discount Day)
~690,000 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (First Saturday, Opening Day, Discount Day)
~685,000 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (First Sunday)
~625,000 - Frozen II (First Saturday)
~625,000 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (First Saturday)
~620,000 - Toy Story 4 (First Sunday)
~600,000 - Toy Story 4 (First Monday, Holiday)
600,000 - One Piece Film Z (First Saturday, Opening Day)
~590,000 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (First Sunday)
~585,000 - Frozen II (First Sunday)
~580,000 - Howl's Moving Castle (First Saturday, Opening Day)
~560,000 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (First Sunday)
~560,000 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (First Saturday)
~555,000 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (First Saturday)
~550,000 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Second Sunday)
545,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Monday)
540,000 - One Piece Film Z (First Sunday)
~540,000 - Frozen (Eighth Monday, Holiday)
~535,000 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Second Saturday)
~525,000 - Howl's Moving Castle (First Sunday)
~525,000 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (Second Sunday)
-515,000 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (First Sunday)
510,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Second Friday)
505,000 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (First Wednesday)
~500,000 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (First Sunday)
~500,000 - Rookies

~ (Estimate).

If there are any other films, or other days for films already listed, please ask about them or share information regarding them so they can be added/updated in the next update.

Weekday holidays later in a film's run (Frozen's EIGHTH Monday on the list, for example) are the hardest to remember or get information on (especially for older films), so those are the days to be on the lookout for.

Just remember that first Saturday and Sunday of Hollywood blockbusters from 2002-2005/2006 can't really be included because most of them had previews added to their openings. And for the few were preview figures are available, separating them from the opening also won't result in them being added since the previews were such a large share of the opening.

Ended with a sub-20% drop which is unbelievable. Looking forward to the next two days both of which should be much bigger due to holiday effect.

Demon Slayer is still gaining a lot of ground on Spirited Away and doesn't appear to be slowing anytime soon. I think it might even pass Spirited Away in total gross before it starts to lose in the week vs week grosses.

This and my 45B prediction are still on way lol

I've seen it mentioned that after one day in release in Taiwan, that Demon Slayer earned more than 50% of what Your Name. (the highest grossing Japanese film in the market) did overall in the country. If anyone here has data on Taiwan's box-office, please share. I'll try to look into it later, but any help is appreciated.

And the train just refuses to slow.

Early Monday sales are crazy, and suggest its Monday (third one now!) is going to either rival or beat its first Monday. Yet another 500,000+ admissions day and maybe ¥650-700 million ($6/7 million) day, its 18th day in release, is very likely. And it'll come in much higher tomorrow, possibly twice as high given it's a holiday.

And this is just a regular weekday. Yes, it's the day before a holiday (Tuesday) and regular days can benefit from this as evening/night showings are a lot stronger from people not having to go to work or school, but still.

Maybe there's an error, where it's calculating marked out seats as sold at locations that revert back to 50% capacity on the weekdays, but the numbers are so high that even if it experiences a correction later today, it's not going to significantly impact the day..

Hi. Had been lurking around for some time and decided to create an account to answer your question.

The news I read is that Demon Slayer earned an estimated amount of NT35million on its opening day on Friday, so it is expected to break the NT100million mark after its opening weekend. (Source in mandarin: https://tw.appledaily.com/entertainment/20201101/C7PMLUQZVVBEVHU4KYPVRY73F4/)

Other numbers in comparison

Frozen 2 broke the NT100million mark in 4 days after its opening weekend (as it opened on a thursday in Taiwan)
Your Name broken the NT100million mark only in 10 days after its premiere. And Your Name is the best selling Japanese film in Taiwan with total NT250million sales (and I do expect Demon Slayer to break the record for this too)