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 Japan Box-Office: On Hiatus 
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Don't Dream It, Be It
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
pookpooi wrote:
Is it just me or this year Japan boxoffice seem to release actual number very slow and many films are still estimated on Wednesday.


Sort of. Actuals for independent studio distributed films are always slow to come in, but for the most part everything else comes in on Monday still. The only exception is that the traditional two-day weekend actual for openers can be estimates* until Wednesday (their three-day totals are always released on Monday though).

*The estimate is still super close to the actual since it's no more than ¥900,000 ($8,000) off. If the weekend is said to be ¥150 million, its actual will be between ¥149.5-¥150.4 million.

I'm pretty positive it's due to the country moving toward Friday release dates instead of Saturday release dates, but still keeping the two-day weekend (Sat-Sun).

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:29 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 Daily Estimates
Spring Break 2019 - Daily Estimates, Week 2 (03/25-29)

Monday (03/25):
¥115 million ($1.0 million), +190%, ¥2.98 billion ($27.0 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 25
¥x45 million ($410,000), -51%, ¥1.26 billion ($11.4 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 11
¥x40 million ($365,000), +01%, ¥2.55 billion ($23.2 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 32
¥x40 million ($365,000), 0, ¥305 million ($2.8 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) Day 5
¥x40 million ($365,000), -11%, ¥550 million ($5.0 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 11
¥x20 million ($180,000), -12%, ¥540 million ($4.9 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 11
¥x20 million ($180,000), 0, ¥190 million ($1.7 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) Day 5
¥x20 million ($180,000), -26%, ¥1.43 billion ($13.0 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 25
¥x15 million ($135,000), 0, ¥x90 million ($0.8 million), L-DK: Two Loves, Under One Roof (Toei) Day 5
¥x15 million ($135,000), -01%, ¥300 million ($2.7 million), Osomatsu-san (Shochiku) Day 11

Bonus: ¥x09 million ($80,000), -22%, ¥12.64 billion ($113.4 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) Day 137

Tuesday (03/26):
¥120 million ($1.1 million), +207%, ¥3.10 billion ($28.1 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 26
¥x40 million ($365,000), +18%, ¥2.59 billion ($23.6 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 33
¥x35 million ($315,000), -43%, ¥1.30 billion ($11.7 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 12
¥x35 million ($315,000), 0, ¥340 million ($3.1 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) Day 6
¥x35 million ($315,000), +04%, ¥585 million ($5.3 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 12
¥x20 million ($180,000), 0, ¥210 million ($1.9 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) Day 6
¥x20 million ($180,000), +11%, ¥560 million ($5.1 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 12
¥x20 million ($180,000), -17%, ¥1.45 billion ($13.2 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 26
¥x15 million ($135,000), 0, ¥105 million ($0.9 million), L-DK: Two Loves, Under One Roof (Toei) Day 6
¥x15 million ($135,000), +28%, ¥315 million ($2.8 million), Osomatsu-san (Shochiku) Day 12

Bonus: ¥x08 million ($75,000), -11%, ¥12.65 billion ($113.5 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) Day 138

% changes versus same day last week.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:05 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
A bit of a boring Spring Break this year. In recent years, Disney and/or Illumination have had an animated film open in mid-March; so without any releases from them, the only film benefiting significantly from the break is Doraemon since it's the pretty much the only release that targets children.

Disney should have stuck with this release frame for Ralph Breaks the Internet, but they oddly decided to release it back in December. And while it did okay, it was kinda frontloaded for an animated film released that time of year, and then it died off after the New Year. It would have benefited greatly from a Spring release.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:11 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
Given the slight lul due to an absence of the usual Animated release, what's next on the release schedule the next couple of weeks and how big are they looking (OW/Total)? Can anything spice up the BO?


Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:19 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
Dumbo opens this upcoming weekend. I don't know if it'll quite be able to dethrone Doraemon, but it should do solid numbers. Tim Burton is very reliable in Japan, and online interest is good, though not great.

Then the box-office will be in a down period coming out of a holiday frame (Spring Break) until Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire opens on April 12th. I probably don't have to remind you how big this franchise has become (last year's film was #2 for the year), and this year's release will be debuting in a very open market. It was already very likely to achieve the biggest overall opening weekend of 2019 regardless, but the open market could propel it above and beyond. Last year's film debuted to over 1 million admissions (1,012,000), becoming only the third film in ten years to accomplish that feat.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:30 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
Captain Marvel meltdown. Corpse do you know if this is because audience not liking it or maybe this is just a very frontloaded movie because it was set in 80's thus the initial rush.


Tue Mar 26, 2019 10:13 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
Thanks for your input on Aladdin, Corpse.


Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:12 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Captain Marvel meltdown. Corpse do you know if this is because audience not liking it or maybe this is just a very frontloaded movie because it was set in 80's thus the initial rush.


Reviews and audience scores are good, averaging 4/5 on most movie sites, so it's not the reception. Marvel/DC films are just some of the most frontloaded in the market (besides Spider-Man releases), regardless of reception. Captain Marvel is just performing among the most frontloaded in the genre.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Mar 27, 2019 9:44 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 Daily Estimates
Spring Break 2019 - Daily Estimates, Week 2 (03/25-29)

Monday (03/25):
¥115 million ($1.0 million), +190%, ¥2.98 billion ($27.0 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 25
¥x45 million ($410,000), -51%, ¥1.26 billion ($11.4 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 11
¥x40 million ($365,000), +01%, ¥2.55 billion ($23.2 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 32
¥x40 million ($365,000), 0, ¥305 million ($2.8 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) Day 5
¥x40 million ($365,000), -11%, ¥550 million ($5.0 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 11
¥x20 million ($180,000), -12%, ¥540 million ($4.9 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 10
¥x20 million ($180,000), 0, ¥190 million ($1.7 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) Day 5
¥x20 million ($180,000), -26%, ¥1.43 billion ($13.0 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 25
¥x15 million ($135,000), 0, ¥x90 million ($0.8 million), L-DK: Two Loves, Under One Roof (Toei) Day 5
¥x15 million ($135,000), -01%, ¥300 million ($2.7 million), Osomatsu-san (Shochiku) Day 11

Bonus: ¥x09 million ($80,000), -22%, ¥12.64 billion ($113.4 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) Day 137

Tuesday (03/26):
¥120 million ($1.1 million), +207%, ¥3.10 billion ($28.1 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 26
¥x40 million ($365,000), +18%, ¥2.59 billion ($23.6 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 33
¥x35 million ($315,000), -43%, ¥1.30 billion ($11.7 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 12
¥x35 million ($315,000), 0, ¥340 million ($3.1 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) Day 6
¥x35 million ($315,000), +04%, ¥585 million ($5.3 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 12
¥x20 million ($180,000), 0, ¥210 million ($1.9 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) Day 6
¥x20 million ($180,000), +11%, ¥560 million ($5.1 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 11
¥x20 million ($180,000), -17%, ¥1.45 billion ($13.2 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 26
¥x15 million ($135,000), 0, ¥105 million ($0.9 million), L-DK: Two Loves, Under One Roof (Toei) Day 6
¥x15 million ($135,000), +28%, ¥315 million ($2.8 million), Osomatsu-san (Shochiku) Day 12

Bonus: ¥x08 million ($75,000), -11%, ¥12.65 billion ($113.5 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) Day 138

Wednesday (03/27):
¥185 million ($1.7 million), +103%, ¥3.29 billion ($29.8 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 27
¥x60 million ($540,000), -12%, ¥2.65 billion ($24.1 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 34
¥x45 million ($405,000), 0, ¥385 million ($3.5 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) Day 7
¥x40 million ($360,000), -51%, ¥1.34 billion ($12.1 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 13
¥x40 million ($360,000), -09%, ¥625 million ($5.7 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 13
¥x30 million ($270,000), -01%, ¥590 million ($5.4 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 12
¥x25 million ($225,000), -31%, ¥1.48 billion ($13.4 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 27
¥x25 million ($225,000), 0, ¥235 million ($2.1 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) Day 7
¥x20 million ($180,000), 0, ¥125 million ($1.1 million), L-DK: Two Loves, Under One Roof (Toei) Day 7
¥x20 million ($180,000), -03%, ¥335 million ($3.0 million), Osomatsu-san (Shochiku) Day 12

Bonus: ¥x12 million ($110,000), -15%, ¥12.66 billion ($113.6 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) Day 139

% changes versus same day last week.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Mar 27, 2019 11:22 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 Daily Estimates
Spring Break 2019 - Daily Estimates, Week 2 (03/25-29)

Monday (03/25):
¥115 million ($1.0 million), +190%, ¥2.98 billion ($27.0 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 25
¥x45 million ($410,000), -51%, ¥1.26 billion ($11.4 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 11
¥x40 million ($365,000), +01%, ¥2.55 billion ($23.2 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 32
¥x40 million ($365,000), 0, ¥305 million ($2.8 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) Day 5
¥x40 million ($365,000), -11%, ¥550 million ($5.0 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 11
¥x20 million ($180,000), -12%, ¥540 million ($4.9 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 10
¥x20 million ($180,000), 0, ¥190 million ($1.7 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) Day 5
¥x20 million ($180,000), -26%, ¥1.43 billion ($13.0 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 25
¥x15 million ($135,000), 0, ¥x90 million ($0.8 million), L-DK: Two Loves, Under One Roof (Toei) Day 5
¥x15 million ($135,000), -01%, ¥300 million ($2.7 million), Osomatsu-san (Shochiku) Day 11

Bonus: ¥x09 million ($80,000), -22%, ¥12.64 billion ($113.4 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) Day 137

Tuesday (03/26):
¥120 million ($1.1 million), +207%, ¥3.10 billion ($28.1 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 26
¥x40 million ($365,000), +18%, ¥2.59 billion ($23.6 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 33
¥x35 million ($315,000), -43%, ¥1.30 billion ($11.7 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 12
¥x35 million ($315,000), 0, ¥340 million ($3.1 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) Day 6
¥x35 million ($315,000), +04%, ¥585 million ($5.3 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 12
¥x20 million ($180,000), 0, ¥210 million ($1.9 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) Day 6
¥x20 million ($180,000), +11%, ¥560 million ($5.1 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 11
¥x20 million ($180,000), -17%, ¥1.45 billion ($13.2 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 26
¥x15 million ($135,000), 0, ¥105 million ($0.9 million), L-DK: Two Loves, Under One Roof (Toei) Day 6
¥x15 million ($135,000), +28%, ¥315 million ($2.8 million), Osomatsu-san (Shochiku) Day 12

Bonus: ¥x08 million ($75,000), -11%, ¥12.65 billion ($113.5 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) Day 138

Wednesday (03/27):
¥185 million ($1.7 million), +103%, ¥3.29 billion ($29.8 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 27
¥x60 million ($540,000), -12%, ¥2.65 billion ($24.1 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 34
¥x45 million ($405,000), 0, ¥385 million ($3.5 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) Day 7
¥x40 million ($360,000), -51%, ¥1.34 billion ($12.1 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 13
¥x40 million ($360,000), -09%, ¥625 million ($5.7 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 13
¥x30 million ($270,000), -01%, ¥590 million ($5.4 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 12
¥x25 million ($225,000), -31%, ¥1.48 billion ($13.4 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 27
¥x25 million ($225,000), 0, ¥235 million ($2.1 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) Day 7
¥x20 million ($180,000), 0, ¥125 million ($1.1 million), L-DK: Two Loves, Under One Roof (Toei) Day 7
¥x20 million ($180,000), -03%, ¥335 million ($3.0 million), Osomatsu-san (Shochiku) Day 13

Bonus: ¥x12 million ($110,000), -15%, ¥12.66 billion ($113.6 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) Day 139

Thursday (03/28):
¥125 million ($1.1 million), -55%, ¥3.42 billion ($30.9 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 28
¥x40 million ($360,000), -61%, ¥2.69 billion ($24.5 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 35
¥x35 million ($315,000), -07%, ¥420 million ($3.8 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) Day 8
¥x35 million ($315,000), -73%, ¥1.38 billion ($12.4 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 14
¥x35 million ($315,000), -44%, ¥660 million ($6.0 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 14
¥x20 million ($180,000), -80%, ¥610 million ($5.6 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 13
¥x20 million ($180,000), -70%, ¥1.50 billion ($13.6 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 28
¥x20 million ($180,000), -79%, ¥255 million ($2.3 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) Day 8
¥x15 million ($135,000), -41%, ¥140 million ($1.3 million), L-DK: Two Loves, Under One Roof (Toei) Day 8
¥x15 million ($135,000), -49%, ¥350 million ($3.2 million), Osomatsu-san (Shochiku) Day 14

Bonus: ¥x09 million ($80,000), -59%, ¥12.67 billion ($113.7 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) Day 140

% changes versus same day last week.

Note: Last Thursday was a national holiday, so the Thursday-to-Thursday declines are significant due to this.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:04 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Upcoming Release Schedule (Apr.)
Upcoming Release Schedule: April

04/04:
[x97] - Vice (Long Ride)
[x77] - You Are Brilliant Like a Spica (Ion Entertainment)

04/05:
[129] - Thomas & Friends: Big World! Big Adventure! Go! Go! (Tokyo Theaters, Co.)

04/12:
[364] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho)
[197] - Hunter Killer (Gaga)
[x79] - Halloween (Parco)
[x72] - Love's Twisting Path (Toei)

04/19:
[356] - Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho)
[341] - Kingdom (Toho/Sony)
[174] - Shazam! (Warner Bros.)
[x73] - Sound! Euphonium the Movie: Finale Oath (Shochiku)

04/26:
[350] - Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
[136] - Birthday Wonderland (Warner Bros.)
[100] - Toei Manga Festival Anime Shorts (Toei)


Preliminary theater counts in [brackets] are subject-to-change, especially for premium format releases distributed by Disney and Warner Bros.

Theater Count Key:
<100: Limited.
101-149: Wide.
150-199: Below Average.
200-249: Standard.
250-299: Above average.
300-349: Very wide.
>350: Optimal.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:53 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Upcoming Release Schedule (May)
Upcoming Release Schedule: May

05/03:
[350] - Detective Pikachu (Toho)
[132] - Kakegurui (Gaga)

05/10:
[117] - I Want to See You Again (LDH Pictures)
[x97] - Leaving the Scene (Toei)
[x86] - Cheer Boys!! (Bandai Visual/Pony Canyon)

05/17:
[325] - The Confidence Man JP: The Movie (Toho)
[193] - According to Our Butler (Toei)
[x82] - Iwane: Sword of Serenity (Shochiku)

05/24:
[326] - A Little Love Song (Toei)
[324] - Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films)
[188] - Promare (Toho Video Division)

05/31:
[365] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho)
[208] - Parallel World Love Story (Shochiku)
[157] - A Long Farewell (Asmik Ace)
[x96] - Farewell Song (Gaga)


Preliminary theater counts in [brackets] are subject-to-change, especially for premium format releases distributed by Disney and Warner Bros.

Theater Count Key:
<100: Limited.
101-149: Wide.
150-199: Below Average.
200-249: Standard.
250-299: Above average.
300-349: Very wide.
>350: Optimal.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:37 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
Thanks Corpse. So we're really looking at a non-stop week after week of big grosses from 12th April onwards. Even more so if (in the unlikely case) Pikachu overperforms, especially since it's distributed by Toho.

Are there any notable holidays coming up in April and May that will affect Box Office? (I'm useless at remembering dates :P )


Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:35 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
Golden Week is from April 29th-May 5th. April 29th is Showa Day, May 3rd is Constitution Day, May 4th is Greenery Day, and May 5th is Children's Day.

However, this year's Golden Week holiday frame is special, and unprecedented. I'll explain:

On April 30th, Emperor Akihito is abdicating the throne, and the Crown Prince Naruhito will ascend the throne on May 1st. As a result of this, May 1st will be a national holiday this year. And due to May 1st becoming a national holiday, April 30th and May 2nd also become national holidays because a day between two national holidays is then declared a holiday itself. May 6th also becomes a national holiday because May 5th (a national holiday) falls on a Sunday, and when a holiday falls on a Sunday, the following Monday is declared a holiday! :funny:

So, this year's Golden Week is extra long, and when you include the weekend of April 27th, you get an unprecedented 10-day holiday frame, EIGHT of which will be national holidays(!), from April 27th-May 6th without school OR work.

April 27th - Weekend
April 28th - Weekend
April 29th - Showa Day (National Holiday)
April 30th - Declared National Holiday (falls between holidays)
May 1st - National Holiday (New Emperor)
May 2nd - Declared National Holiday (falls between holidays)
May 3rd - Constitution Day (National Holiday)
May 4th - Greenery Day (National Holiday)
May 5th - Children's Day (National Holiday)
May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday)

This is the longest consecutive holiday frame where both schools AND workplaces will be closed in modern history. It's going to be huge for the box-office. The only downside is that we won't see any weekend actuals for April 27-28th or May 4th-5th until May 7th/8th at the earliest.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:10 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
It seems like Endgame will benefit the most from the holidays, as it's released just before Golden Week and can take advantage of every single day. Although I think Conan could still be #1 for that frame possibly.


Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:05 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
We all will be happy till you update the estimates Corpse :thumbsup:


Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:36 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
All ten days will be huge, but May 1st will be the most interesting to watch and could end up as something truly special. The day consists of:

-National Holiday (New Emperor Ascends).
-National Discount Day (40% off all ticket prices every 1st of every month).
-Ladies' Day (every Wednesday females get half-off ticket prices).

The only other time all three of these days (a national holiday + 1st of the month + ladies' day) can align is when New Year (Jan. 1st) falls on a Wednesday. And that can only occur every six years.

It'll also be interesting to see how everything behaves after a consecutive ten-day holiday break. As mentioned, this will be the longest stretch where both schools and workplaces will be closed in modern history.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:35 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 Daily Estimates
Spring Break 2019 - Daily Estimates, Week 2 (03/25-29)

Monday (03/25):
¥115 million ($1.0 million), +190%, ¥2.98 billion ($27.0 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 25
¥x45 million ($410,000), -51%, ¥1.26 billion ($11.4 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 11
¥x40 million ($365,000), +01%, ¥2.55 billion ($23.2 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 32
¥x40 million ($365,000), 0, ¥305 million ($2.8 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) Day 5
¥x40 million ($365,000), -11%, ¥550 million ($5.0 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 11
¥x20 million ($180,000), -12%, ¥540 million ($4.9 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 10
¥x20 million ($180,000), 0, ¥190 million ($1.7 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) Day 5
¥x20 million ($180,000), -26%, ¥1.43 billion ($13.0 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 25
¥x15 million ($135,000), 0, ¥x90 million ($0.8 million), L-DK: Two Loves, Under One Roof (Toei) Day 5
¥x15 million ($135,000), -01%, ¥300 million ($2.7 million), Osomatsu-san (Shochiku) Day 11

Bonus: ¥x09 million ($80,000), -22%, ¥12.64 billion ($113.4 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) Day 137

Tuesday (03/26):
¥120 million ($1.1 million), +207%, ¥3.10 billion ($28.1 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 26
¥x40 million ($365,000), +18%, ¥2.59 billion ($23.6 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 33
¥x35 million ($315,000), -43%, ¥1.30 billion ($11.7 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 12
¥x35 million ($315,000), 0, ¥340 million ($3.1 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) Day 6
¥x35 million ($315,000), +04%, ¥585 million ($5.3 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 12
¥x20 million ($180,000), 0, ¥210 million ($1.9 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) Day 6
¥x20 million ($180,000), +11%, ¥560 million ($5.1 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 11
¥x20 million ($180,000), -17%, ¥1.45 billion ($13.2 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 26
¥x15 million ($135,000), 0, ¥105 million ($0.9 million), L-DK: Two Loves, Under One Roof (Toei) Day 6
¥x15 million ($135,000), +28%, ¥315 million ($2.8 million), Osomatsu-san (Shochiku) Day 12

Bonus: ¥x08 million ($75,000), -11%, ¥12.65 billion ($113.5 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) Day 138

Wednesday (03/27):
¥185 million ($1.7 million), +103%, ¥3.29 billion ($29.8 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 27
¥x60 million ($540,000), -12%, ¥2.65 billion ($24.1 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 34
¥x45 million ($405,000), 0, ¥385 million ($3.5 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) Day 7
¥x40 million ($360,000), -51%, ¥1.34 billion ($12.1 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 13
¥x40 million ($360,000), -09%, ¥625 million ($5.7 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 13
¥x30 million ($270,000), -01%, ¥590 million ($5.4 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 12
¥x25 million ($225,000), -31%, ¥1.48 billion ($13.4 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 27
¥x25 million ($225,000), 0, ¥235 million ($2.1 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) Day 7
¥x20 million ($180,000), 0, ¥125 million ($1.1 million), L-DK: Two Loves, Under One Roof (Toei) Day 7
¥x20 million ($180,000), -03%, ¥335 million ($3.0 million), Osomatsu-san (Shochiku) Day 13

Bonus: ¥x12 million ($110,000), -15%, ¥12.66 billion ($113.6 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) Day 139

Thursday (03/28):
¥125 million ($1.1 million), -55%, ¥3.42 billion ($30.9 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 28
¥x40 million ($360,000), -61%, ¥2.69 billion ($24.5 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 35
¥x35 million ($315,000), -07%, ¥420 million ($3.8 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) Day 8
¥x35 million ($315,000), -73%, ¥1.38 billion ($12.4 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 14
¥x35 million ($315,000), -44%, ¥660 million ($6.0 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 14
¥x20 million ($180,000), -80%, ¥610 million ($5.6 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 13
¥x20 million ($180,000), -70%, ¥1.50 billion ($13.6 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 28
¥x20 million ($180,000), -79%, ¥255 million ($2.3 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) Day 8
¥x15 million ($135,000), -41%, ¥140 million ($1.3 million), L-DK: Two Loves, Under One Roof (Toei) Day 8
¥x15 million ($135,000), -49%, ¥350 million ($3.2 million), Osomatsu-san (Shochiku) Day 14

Bonus: ¥x09 million ($80,000), -59%, ¥12.67 billion ($113.7 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) Day 140

Friday (03/29):
¥120 million ($1.1 million), +71%, ¥3.54 billion ($32.0 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) Day 29
¥x75 million ($680,000), 0, ¥x75 million ($0.7 million), Dumbo (Disney) NEW
¥x55 million ($500,000), 0, ¥x55 million ($0.5 million), Ninja Drones? (Shochiku) NEW
¥x40 million ($365,000), -10%, ¥2.73 billion ($24.9 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) Day 36
¥x35 million ($315,000), -43%, ¥1.41 billion ($12.7 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) Day 15
¥x30 million ($270,000), -51%, ¥450 million ($4.1 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) Day 9
¥x30 million ($270,000), -11%, ¥690 million ($6.3 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) Day 15
¥x20 million ($180,000), -31%, ¥1.52 billion ($13.8 million), Green Book (Gaga) Day 29
¥x15 million ($135,000), -08%, ¥625 million ($5.7 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) Day 14
¥x15 million ($135,000), -31%, ¥270 million ($2.4 million), Prince of Legend (Toho) Day 9

Bonus: ¥x07 million ($65,000), -30%, ¥12.68 billion ($113.8 million), Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) Day 141

% changes versus same day last week.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Last edited by Corpse on Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:12 am, edited 1 time in total.



Fri Mar 29, 2019 10:53 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
Pretty meh Friday for Dumbo. That likely won't be enough to dethrone Doraemon from atop the weekend-box office either, so Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration will claim its 5th-consecutive weekend at #1 (and 6th-consecutive next week).

Dumbo is definitely going to perform at the bottom of Disney's live-action re-tellings, perhaps coming in either a bit below or on par with The Jungle Book. I'd project a debut around ¥250 million ($2.2/2.3 million) based on its Friday take, and a finish of between ¥1.5-2.0 billion ($15-20 million) depending on how it handles the mid/late-April releases. The Jungle Book grossed ¥2.21 billion ($21.5 million).

Japanese audiences just aren't really into the non-musical, animal-themed live-action remakes it seems. I imagine they struggle to find an audience. Older audiences may find them too childish; teens likely see little/no appeal (no attachment to Disney); and family/younger audiences probably find them too mature. The live-action Disney Princess films have performed overwhelmingly better at the box-office.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Mar 29, 2019 10:59 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
Corpse wrote:
Pretty meh Friday for Dumbo. That likely won't be enough to dethrone Doraemon from atop the weekend-box office either, so Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration will claim its 5th-consecutive weekend at #1 (and 6th-consecutive next week).

Dumbo is definitely going to perform at the bottom of Disney's live-action re-tellings, perhaps coming in either a bit below or on par with The Jungle Book. I'd project a debut around ¥250 million ($2.2/2.3 million) based on its Friday take, and a finish of between ¥1.5-2.0 billion ($15-20 million) depending on how it handles the mid/late-April releases. The Jungle Book grossed ¥2.21 billion ($21.5 million).

Japanese audiences just aren't really into the non-musical, animal-themed live-action remakes it seems. I imagine they struggle to find an audience. Older audiences may find them too childish; teens likely see little/no appeal (no attachment to Disney); and family/younger audiences probably find them too mature. The live-action Disney Princess films have performed overwhelmingly better at the box-office.


How does this fair for The Lion King then? Since that fits the category of "non-musical, animal-themed live-action remakes", since there's only like 4 songs in it. Or does the original hold a special place in people's hearts to find an audience?


Fri Mar 29, 2019 11:30 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/24 Updates)
I don't expect The Lion King to be very big, but it's sort of an unknown right now. Do we know how they're handling the songs? Are the animals singing them? Are they even included? If they're a focal point of the marketing, and the animals are indeed singing them, then that should help. I think it'll do well, better than The Jungle Book or Dumbo, but I don't see it being huge in the market.

The original was pretty successful, ranking 5th for the year in 1994, but it only ranks 88th among all animated films in the market. Among the 90s Disney renaissance films, Aladdin was the biggest in Japan.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Mar 29, 2019 7:20 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (03/30-31)
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Weekend Forecast (03/30-31)
01 (01) ¥279,000,000 ($2.5 million), -10%, ¥3,820,000,000 ($34.5 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK5
02 (---) ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥325,000,000 ($2.9 million), Dumbo (Disney) NEW
03 (03) ¥144,000,000 ($1.3 million), -18%, ¥2,875,000,000 ($26.2 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK6
04 (02) ¥109,000,000 ($980,000), -40%, ¥1,520,000,000 ($13.7 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) WK3
05 (04) ¥101,000,000 ($910,000), -42%, ¥550,000,000 ($5.0 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) WK2
06 (05) ¥x88,000,000 ($795,000), -15%, ¥715,000,000 ($6.5 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) WK3
07 (---) ¥x75,000,000 ($675,000), 0, ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), Ninja Drones? (Shochiku) NEW
08 (07) ¥x71,000,000 ($640,000), -20%, ¥760,000,000 ($6.9 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) WK3
09 (06) ¥x69,000,000 ($620,000), -28%, ¥1,590,000,000 ($14.4 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK5
10 (09) ¥x34,000,000 ($305,000), -37%, ¥395,000,000 ($3.6 million), Osomatsu-san: The Movie (Shochiku) WK3


The last weekend of March can be a bit tricky to predict since it's near the end of Spring Break.

Generally, kids/family films hold very well, and can sometimes experiences weekend increases. I'm going to bet against any increases this year, however, since Monday is the 1st of the month (this can sometimes slightly deflate the weekend) and some will be willing to wait until then to get discounted ticket prices. Every other type of film mostly behaves like they would on any ordinary weekend, but one or two can surprise with an excellent hold.

>Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration is looking to achieve its fifth-consecutive weekend atop the box-office, and it's likely to earn it. If any film sees an increase this weekend, then it should be the thirty-ninth entry in this franchise.

>Dumbo opens this weekend, a pretty rare day-and-date release with the rest of the world, but it's probably going to have to settle for a second place debut. It delivered a mediocre start on Friday, and its Saturday pre-sales aren't encouraging. 2016's The Jungle Book is a great comparison here, and Dumbo's pre-sales are 20% below it. The Jungle Book opened with ¥302 million, so a debut around ¥250 million for Dumbo seems likely.

>And finally, the tenth place position this weekend is open for several films. There is even a chance that Bohemian Rhapsody sneaks back in in its twenty-first weekend of release.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Mar 29, 2019 8:08 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (03/30-31)
Corpse wrote:
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(C)藤子プロ・小学館・テレビ朝日・シンエイ・ADK 2019

Weekend Forecast (03/30-31)

>And finally, the tenth place position this weekend is open for several films. There is even a chance that Bohemian Rhapsody sneaks back in in its twenty-first weekend of release.[/size]


Would be nice to adjust the record books again :D


Sun Mar 31, 2019 5:37 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Spring Break 2019 (03/30-31 Forecast))
Bohemian Rhapsody actually increased, but so did Osomatsu-san (it had some kind of fan events or giveaways on Sunday), so it won't be reentering the Top 10.

I'll have the Weekend Estimates up here later. Dumbo, unfortunately, under-performed even the lower-end of expectations. Pre-sales had it tracking about 21% behind The Jungle Book going into the weekend, but by end-of-day Sunday, it ended up almost 35% behind it. It may have missed ¥200 million if its average ticket price comes in too low. I wouldn't call it a bomb, but it's a pretty big disappointment.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sun Mar 31, 2019 6:27 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (03/30-31)
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(C)藤子プロ・小学館・テレビ朝日・シンエイ・ADK 2019

Weekend Estimates (03/30-31)
01 (01) ¥316,000,000 ($2.9 million), +02%, ¥3,855,000,000 ($34.8 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK5
02 (---) ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥275,000,000 ($2.5 million), Dumbo (Disney) NEW
03 (03) ¥167,000,000 ($1.5 million), -04%, ¥2,900,000,000 ($26.4 million), Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK6
04 (02) ¥119,000,000 ($1.1 million), -34%, ¥1,530,000,000 ($13.8 million), Captain Marvel (Disney) WK3
05 (04) ¥109,000,000 ($980,000), -37%, ¥560,000,000 ($5.1 million), Bumblebee (Toho-Towa) WK2
06 (05) ¥x79,000,000 ($710,000), -25%, ¥705,000,000 ($6.4 million), Precure Miracle Universe (Toei) WK3
07 (07) ¥x78,000,000 ($705,000), -13%, ¥765,000,000 ($7.0 million), You Shine in Moonlight (Toho) WK3
08 (06) ¥x74,000,000 ($665,000), -23%, ¥1,595,000,000 ($14.5 million), Green Book (Gaga) WK5
09 (---) ¥x60,000,000 ($540,000), 0, ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), Ninja Drones? (Shochiku) NEW
10 (09) ¥x58,000,000 ($520,000), +08%, ¥415,000,000 ($3.8 million), Osomatsu-san: The Movie (Shochiku) WK3


>Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration holds onto its reign atop the weekend box-office for a fifth-consecutive week, and likely saw a slightly increase over the weekend. Depending on where the actual lands, the thirty-ninth entry in the series may have set a fifth-weekend gross record, besting last year's film. A total above ¥4.5 billion ($40 million+) seems almost guaranteed now, and it has a fair shot at reaching the ¥5 billion ($45 million) milestone.

>Dumbo opened day-and-date with the rest of the world in Japan, but it proved to be an unsuccessful decision. Its debut is by far the lowest among Disney's live-action remakes, down an estimated 34% compared to the previous low, The Jungle Book. This opening is also low for Tim Burton, who has found great success in the market with Japan always being one of the biggest international markets, if not the biggest, for most of his films.

>Tonde Saitama holds tremendously well once again, and after six weeks of release is close to exceeding the ¥3 billion milestone. The film has now exceeded a multiplier of 11, and could eventually reach 13 or even 14. It's the best performer so far this year, leg wise, and should remain one of 2019's top performances.

>Captain Marvel posted, perhaps surprisingly given its free-fall since opening day, a solid hold in its third weekend. It really needed this hold, too, in order to clear the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) milestone, and while it's not guaranteed yet, it should eventually get there.

>And because I know many of you want to know: Bohemian Rhapsody grossed an estimated ¥49 million ($440,000) in its twenty-first weekend of release, up about 15%, bringing its cumulative total up to around ¥12.73 billion ($114.2 million) after 21 weeks in release. It has surpassed Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace to become the 17th highest-grossing film of all-time in Japan. Next up is Jurassic Park with ¥12.85 billion.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:18 pm
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