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 Japan Box-Office: On Hiatus 
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The Dark Knight

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
Of all the other movies the lowest "total multiplier/5 week multiplier" multiplier is 1,43 and the highest is 2,74, with an average of 2,16. Such a multiplier would put its final total at around ¥9,5 billion.


Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:33 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
You can likely rule out anything as low as 1.43 because The Cat Returns is the one special case on that list. Its first five weeks include the majority of summer vacation and Obon Festival, so it was able to achieve such a high early multiplier because of this following its relatively low opening weekend. Its final multiplier is noticeably lower than the other films on the list because it fell hard once summer ended.

If you exclude The Cat Returns, the average week five total to final total multiplier becomes 2.28. That'd result in ¥10 billion (~$90 million)! I would stay that's far reaching, but it's certainly doable because it also still has New Year coming up in a few weeks (weeks eight and nine) to boost it. And there's not much for an adult audience this winter, so it may even draw in some irregular moviegoers. The vast majority of moviegoers in Japan are the same people each year, so when a film is able to tap into the casual crowd, big things happen.

I'm going to presume it doesn't win Best Drama or Best Actor at the Golden Globes, but if it does...that'll give it yet another boost as New Year draws to a close next month. Any nominations/wins for Rami Malek or the film itself from the major award ceremonies will keep propelling it along, too.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Dec 10, 2018 10:35 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Bohemian Rhapsody Hits Phenom Status
Corpse wrote:
A Star Is Born's success will be more dependent upon how it performs during Award Season. I think it'll be a solid success at the box office, but to become a hit, it needs that award buzz it currently has to equal award wins.


If A Star Is Born manages to sweep at the Golden Globes next month, could that negatively affect Bohemian Rhapsody's late legs? Or is the market big enough for both films to thrive despite targeting the same audience?


Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:33 am
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
Hi Corpse!

Great to see BoRhap excelling here. Do you have the list of best 5th weekends, or is 4 consecutive increases still not enough?


Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:37 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
feasby007 wrote:
Hi Corpse!

Great to see BoRhap excelling here. Do you have the list of best 5th weekends, or is 4 consecutive increases still not enough?


Managed to find the list.

Corpse wrote:
Biggest Fifth Weekends (2001-)

¥1.069 billion, (+10%), ¥10.52 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥890.0 million, (-06%), ¥13.26 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥889.1 million, (-07%), ¥9.86 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥888.9 million, (+16%), ¥10.47 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥862.5 million, (-20%), ¥11.17 billion - Your Name. (2016)
¥851.2 million, (+13%), ¥9.94 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥841.0 million, (-01%), ¥9.28 billion - Frozen (2014)
¥834.5 million, (+47%), ¥7.50 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥782.5 million, (+44%), ¥6.68 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥756.6 million, (-18%), ¥9.69 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥526.7 million, (-23%), ¥8.37 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥520.8 million, (-07%), ¥6.95 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥518.4 million, (+02%), ¥7.00 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥504.1 million, (+10%), ¥4.55 billion - Zootopia (2016)

¥500 million+


Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:22 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated!
Corpse wrote:
Japan has three major holiday period (a period being a string of national holidays), they include:

New Year (January 1st through the second Monday of January).
Golden Week (April 29th-May 5th).
Obon Festival (August 13th-19th, though exact dates vary slightly here).

As for which is the "most important", it would technically be New Year in terms of size and festivities (Jan. 1st in particular). In terms how much they boost the box-office, it's typically: Obon Festival > New Year > Golden Week.

Japan is also in the process of making mid-September (currently named Silver Week) a holiday period so that the country has a holiday period in each of the four seasons during the year (New Year - Winter, Golden Week - Spring, Obon Festival - Summer, Silver Week - Fall). Silver Week currently only occurs once or twice every decade (due to the first day of Fall changing), so the government has to either move or add a holiday in there somewhere to make it an annual holiday period.

_____

I'll also take this time to mention that 2019's Golden Week will be exceptionally strong. During Golden Week, April 30th, May 1st and May 2nd are regular days during the holiday period, but all three days will be national holidays next year, thus making it a consecutive 8-day national holiday period next year because...

...Emperor Akihito is going to abdicate the throne on April 30th, the first time an Emperor has abdicated the throne in 200 years, ending the current Heisei Period (1989-) in Japan. His son, Crown Prince Naruhito, will ascend the throne on May 01st. The name of the next Period will be announced on April 1st, a month ahead of the transition.


What happens on National Foundation Day? Is that essentially "National Day" for the country? Much like the US's 4th July?

What is Obon Festival and why does it exist? What does it celebrate? And the same for Golden Week? If you know..


Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:25 am
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
R136a1 wrote:
feasby007 wrote:
Hi Corpse!

Great to see BoRhap excelling here. Do you have the list of best 5th weekends, or is 4 consecutive increases still not enough?


Managed to find the list.

Corpse wrote:
Biggest Fifth Weekends (2001-)

¥1.069 billion, (+10%), ¥10.52 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥890.0 million, (-06%), ¥13.26 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥889.1 million, (-07%), ¥9.86 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥888.9 million, (+16%), ¥10.47 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥862.5 million, (-20%), ¥11.17 billion - Your Name. (2016)
¥851.2 million, (+13%), ¥9.94 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥841.0 million, (-01%), ¥9.28 billion - Frozen (2014)
¥834.5 million, (+47%), ¥7.50 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥782.5 million, (+44%), ¥6.68 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥756.6 million, (-18%), ¥9.69 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥526.7 million, (-23%), ¥8.37 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥520.8 million, (-07%), ¥6.95 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥518.4 million, (+02%), ¥7.00 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥504.1 million, (+10%), ¥4.55 billion - Zootopia (2016)

¥500 million+


Thanks. So BR made it onto the best 5th weekends but nowhere near the top where HP is. Also interesting that leggy juggernauts Frozen, Spirited Away and Your Name. are all higher up with bigger totals too since they opened higher. BR is like a mini version of those :D


Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:34 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Fifth Weekends
Here it is on the list. :thumbsup:

Biggest Fifth Weekends/Five Week Totals (2001-)

¥1.069 billion, +10%, ¥10.52 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥890.0 million, -06%, ¥13.26 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥889.1 million, -07%, ¥9.86 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥888.9 million, +16%, ¥10.47 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥862.5 million, -20%, ¥11.16 billion - Your Name. (2016)
¥851.2 million, +13%, ¥9.94 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥841.0 million, -01%, ¥9.28 billion - Frozen (2014)
¥834.5 million, +47%, ¥7.50 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥782.5 million, +44%, ¥6.68 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥756.6 million, -18%, ¥9.69 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥526.7 million, -23%, ¥8.37 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
¥520.8 million, -07%, ¥6.95 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥518.4 million, +02%, ¥7.00 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥505.1 million, +02%, ¥4.39 billion - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
¥504.1 million, +10%, ¥4.55 billion - Zootopia (2016)

¥500 million+

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:55 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest Sixth Weekends
I'm not sure how much time I'll have this upcoming weekend due to some family business, so in case I can't post it in a timely manner, are is the list of the Biggest Sixth Weekends/Totals. Bohemian Rhapsody is likely to make it, though I do anticipate it'll have its first weekend decrease in its sixth weekend.

Biggest Sixth Weekends/Six Week Totals (2001-)

¥983.9 million, -08%, ¥14.82 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥900.0 million, +02%, ¥14.90 billion - Spirited Away (2001)
¥826.7 million, -02%, ¥10.73 billion - Frozen (2014)
¥822.1 million, -08%, ¥10.92 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥790.1 million, -08%, ¥12.86 billion - Your Name. (2016)
¥642.6 million, -15%, ¥11.41 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥617.3 million, +19%, ¥8.29 billion - Avatar (2009)
¥604.4 million, -32%, ¥11.49 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥603.4 million, -23%, ¥8.09 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥579.4 million, +11%, ¥8.14 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥577.1 million, -32%, ¥11.47 billion - Ponyo (2008)
¥540.2 million, +28%, ¥8.29 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)
¥536.9 million, -36%, ¥9.17 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥457.8 million, +06%, ¥9.47 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
¥454.1 million, -09%, ¥6.88 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥438.6 million, -13%, ¥5.33 billion - Zootopia (2016)

¥400 million+

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:08 am
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
Thanks Corpse :)

Out of interest, if you have a list for it, if not then just when you're free, what's the most consecutive increases a film has had on weekends?

Does BR get close to any sort of record with 4 increases?


Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:54 am
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
feasby007 wrote:
Hi Corpse!

Great to see BoRhap excelling here. Do you have the list of best 5th weekends, or is 4 consecutive increases still not enough?


Oh it's you, I remember you from last time, you helped me out back when the last Dragon Ball Z movie came out.

Feels like yesterday being back on here and seeing you two.


Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:05 pm
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
bullza wrote:
feasby007 wrote:
Hi Corpse!

Great to see BoRhap excelling here. Do you have the list of best 5th weekends, or is 4 consecutive increases still not enough?


Oh it's you, I remember you from last time, you helped me out back when the last Dragon Ball Z movie came out.

Feels like yesterday being back on here and seeing you two.


Ah yes! I remember you also :)

I'm a regular at BoxOfficeTheory and occasionally pop in here for Corpse's other-worldly insights into the Japanese Box Office. (Also have been rather busy these past few months so have been slacking even over at BOT)


Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:05 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
feasby007 wrote:
Thanks Corpse :)

Out of interest, if you have a list for it, if not then just when you're free, what's the most consecutive increases a film has had on weekends?

Does BR get close to any sort of record with 4 increases?


I have not compiled such a list, unbelievably. :mer:

One Cut of the Dead from earlier this year actually increased four consecutive weekends in its seventh, eighth, ninth, and tenth weekends of release in the top 10, but it was being expanded at this time. Expansions are very rare in the market, so I feel this one deserves an asterisk.

Bohemian Rhapsody increasing four consecutive weekends, especially following its opening weekend, without any expansions or anything is without a doubt somewhere near the top of such a list, perhaps it's even at the top.

And off the top of my head, I know that:

Your Name. (2016) saw three consecutive weekend increases in its eighteenth, nineteenth, and twentieth weekends in the top 10, amazingly enough.
Confessions (2010) saw three consecutive weekend increases after its opening weekend.

And all of the super leggy films in the market have all enjoyed nearly flat weekend grosses during various months of their very long runs. None achieved a four week run of weekend increases, though, but many came close but missed by a single digit drop here or there.

I'll put together a list on this topic in the near future.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:26 pm
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Speed Racer

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
Corpse wrote:
feasby007 wrote:
Thanks Corpse :)

Out of interest, if you have a list for it, if not then just when you're free, what's the most consecutive increases a film has had on weekends?

Does BR get close to any sort of record with 4 increases?


I have not compiled such a list, unbelievably. :mer:

One Cut of the Dead from earlier this year actually increased four consecutive weekends in its seventh, eighth, ninth, and tenth weekends of release in the top 10, but it was being expanded at this time. Expansions are very rare in the market, so I feel this one deserves an asterisk.

Bohemian Rhapsody increasing four consecutive weekends, especially following its opening weekend, without any expansions or anything is without a doubt somewhere near the top of such a list, perhaps it's even at the top.

And off the top of my head, I know that:

Your Name. (2016) saw three consecutive weekend increases in its eighteenth, nineteenth, and twentieth weekends in the top 10, amazingly enough.
Confessions (2010) saw three consecutive weekend increases after its opening weekend.

And all of the super leggy films in the market have all enjoyed nearly flat weekend grosses during various months of their very long runs. None achieved a four week run of weekend increases, though, but many came close but missed by a single digit drop here or there.

I'll put together a list on this topic in the near future.


Thanks as always :thumbsup:

No rush though, don't want to stress you out before a busy weekend.

From your brief recollection then it sounds like BoRhap might actually have a record in its hands! Here's to hoping for a 5th increase :yummy: :whaa:


Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:36 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
Corpse, I was wondering if you know the demographics of the Harry Potter fanbase in Japan. Does it skew more female than usual? I remember reading that the majority of moviegoers in Japan are female in general.


Wed Dec 12, 2018 12:47 pm
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
So if Broly opens on a Friday this time then the weekend of definitely going to be lower than Resurrection F isn't because that opened on a Saturday and they only count Saturday and Sunday in the weekend gross right?


Wed Dec 12, 2018 2:23 pm
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The Dark Knight

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
bullza, if you're interested, the seating is out on mimorin :

https://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-26872.html

635,829 seats for DBS Broly (among the chains which the website follows), against 351,264 for The Grinch and 281,096 for Yôkai Watch. So it's actually getting slightly more seats than the other two big openers of the weekend combined.


Wed Dec 12, 2018 9:05 pm
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
Well that sounds good. I don't know how many seats Resurrection F had in comparison though.


Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:38 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
Details of Makoto Shinkai's new film "Tenki no Ko" (The Child of the Weather) have been announced. I wonder if it can break out like Your Name. Not expecting the same level, but maybe at least ¥‎10 billion?

Quote:
The story is described as being about a boy named Hodaka who decides to move to Tokyo after leaving his home on an island. Once in Tokyo, Hodaka finds himself short on money. Hodaka eventually finds a job as a writer for a disreputable occult magazine; however, is the occult really that far-fetched? On one particularly rainy day, he meets a girl named Hina on a crowded city street. Hina is no ordinary girl, though. She has the power to stop the rain and clear the sky.


Image


Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:48 am
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
So this says DBS has done 26,000 on that Mimorin as of 11.59pm? Midnight Showings?


Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:33 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
R136a1 wrote:
Corpse, I was wondering if you know the demographics of the Harry Potter fanbase in Japan. Does it skew more female than usual? I remember reading that the majority of moviegoers in Japan are female in general.


It skews a bit more toward females, like most films, and also toward teens/young adults.

bullza wrote:
So if Broly opens on a Friday this time then the weekend of definitely going to be lower than Resurrection F isn't because that opened on a Saturday and they only count Saturday and Sunday in the weekend gross right?


You'd think it might, but remember that Friday is very much a weekday in Japan, it's nowhere close to being as big as Saturday or Sunday. And the new trend of Friday releases versus Saturday appears to have had no impact on opening weekends this year. There are even examples of Friday releases even boosting business on Saturday/Sunday. It could be WOM spreading faster now than it the past, because Sundays in general have been stronger than normal this year.

bullza wrote:
So this says DBS has done 26,000 on that Mimorin as of 11.59pm? Midnight Showings?


That's Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald. :mer:

Dragon Ball Super: Broly doesn't have midnights or anything. Not that that's a bad sign, because previews/midnights are a thing of the past in the market.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:11 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
R136a1 wrote:
Details of Makoto Shinkai's new film "Tenki no Ko" (The Child of the Weather) have been announced. I wonder if it can break out like Your Name. Not expecting the same level, but maybe at least ¥‎10 billion?

Quote:
The story is described as being about a boy named Hodaka who decides to move to Tokyo after leaving his home on an island. Once in Tokyo, Hodaka finds himself short on money. Hodaka eventually finds a job as a writer for a disreputable occult magazine; however, is the occult really that far-fetched? On one particularly rainy day, he meets a girl named Hina on a crowded city street. Hina is no ordinary girl, though. She has the power to stop the rain and clear the sky.


Image


I imagine it'll be a major success. Your Name., as you mentioned, was a true phenomenon in the market across every industry it was associated (film, music, novels, etc.), not just a regular uber-blockbuster. I'd probably consider ¥10 billion for Tenki no Ko a "disappointment". It'd have to be pretty poorly received to miss the mark, in my opinion. Based on the synopsis, it sounds like it's going to be an emotional ride once again from Shinkai.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:16 pm
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
Oooooh I thought that was Dragon Ball. Alright then nevermind.


Thu Dec 13, 2018 6:34 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
DBS Broly is at 4,245 admissions at 9 am at mimorin, which is 53% of Conan 22's 8,001 admissions at the same time. I know Dragon Ball is a more male oriented franchise which I suspect means a lower early Friday potential but I guess it gives us a very early floor of around 700 million yen for the weekend.

edit : At 9:22 am it's now at 7,348 admissions, so 58,6% of Conan 22's 12,536 admissions at the same time.


Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:28 pm
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Star Trek XI

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: WKND Actuals; Bohemian Hits Phenom Sta
So the weekend gross won't include what it did today then?

Anyway I went and looked back and this is where the sales were on Mimorin back for Resurrection F.

Saturday

10am - 19,317
11am - 29,908
12pm - 40,886
1pm - 51,780
2pm - 67,201
3pm - 81,616
8pm - 129,688
9pm - 144,000

Sunday

10am - 19,055
11am - 27,824
12pm - 40,243
2pm - 67,197
3pm - 82,562
7pm - 123,221
8pm - 127,094
9pm - 134,756

Weekend - 289,000


So this being a Friday won't be a apples to apples comparison.


Thu Dec 13, 2018 8:38 pm
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