Saturday Admissions from the usual locations were released, and these are the drops compared to last Saturday (New Year) for the Top 4, excluding The Unstoppable.

Partners 2 (-31.5%)
Space Battleship Yamato (-36.2%)
Harry Potter 7 (-40.4%)
TRON (-52.2%)

If these drops represent Sunday as well, we should be looking at:

Partners 2 - Y185-200 million ($2.2-2.4 million)
Space Battleship Yamato - Y100-110 million ($1.2-1.3 million)
Harry Potter 7 - Y100-110 million ($1.2-1.3 million)
TRON - Y90-100 million ($1.1-1.2 million)

The Unstoppable might be able to beat Y200 million this weekend if Friday wasn't too big.

Looking forward to when the release date is announced for the US.

Here is a subtitled version of the extended trailer, which I don't believe I ever posted:



Also of note, total admissions came to almost 7.7 million (only behind Avatar in 2010).

Weekend Admission Rankings by Location (Toho, Warner, Shikoku):

TOHO

1 - Unstoppable (Fox) NEW
2 1 Partners The Movie 2 (TOEI) 3
3 2 Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 6
4 5 Inazuma Eleven (Toho) 3
5 4 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 8
6 3 TRON: Legacy (Disney) 4
7 6 Shrek Forever After (Paramount) 4
8 8 Norwegian Wood (Toho) 5
9 7 Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) 4
10 - Iris: The Movie (Kadokawa Pictures) NEW

Warner and Shikoku to follow later tonight.

Surprised that Inazuma Eleven held so well even if it was at Toho locations.

THR has Unstoppable opening to $3.4 million for the 3-day, so that's probably $2.6/2.7 million for the weekend.

SHIKOKU

1. Unstoppable (Fox) NEW
2. Partners The Movie 2 (TOEI) 3
3. Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 6
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 8
5. Inazuma Eleven (Toho) 3
6. Last Ronin (Warner Bros.) 4
7. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) 4
8. Shrek Forever After (Paramount) 4
9. TRON: Legacy (Disney) 4
10. Ultraman Zero The Movie: Super Decisive Battle! Belial's Galactic Empire (Shochiku) 3

Last Week's Ranking isn't listed because they didn't update due to New Year.

Corpse, can you give us a view on some of the big local releases this coming year and their potential estimated grosses.

WARNER

1 2 Partners The Movie 2 (TOEI) 3
2 - Unstoppable (Fox) NEW
3 - Inazuma Eleven (Toho) 3
4 1 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 8
5 3 Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 6

The National Top 10 will be available late tonight, but I'll post it along with any numbers available tomorrow.

So, apparently Potter is at over $76 million now.

I can't comment much on the second half of 2011, but here are some of the bigger films being released between now and August.

Space Battleship Yamato is a 2011 release, and is looking to gross close to Y4.5 billion ($54 million). Besides that one though, we have:

The new Studio Ghibli Film, "From Kokuriko Hill" opens in July, and is likely to be the biggest domestic release of 2011.

The film will be Goro Miyazaki's second film, his debut being "Tales From Earthsea". Reviews were very mixed (though it still grossed Y7.65 billion to become the biggest domestic release of 2006), and it's definitely regarded as Studio Ghibli's weakest film, so I don't expect "From Kokuriko Hill" to open too big based on that.

However, his father is writing this one and it's coming off Ponyo and Arrietty. So I see a smaller opening, but better legs to probably match or slightly surpass "Tales From Earthsea". I'd say Y8 billion ($96 million) is a good reasonable goal.

SP: The Movie 2 opens in March. The first movie that opened in October is still in release, and will finish with about Y3.6 billion ($43 million). Something at least on par should be expected for the sequel this Spring.

Amalfi 2, starring Yuji Oda (Bayside Shakedown) and Erika Toda (Death Note films, Liar Game, several popuar TV dramas), will be one of the bigger films of 2011 with a release in the Summer. The original grossed Y3.65 billion in 2009, and first sequels normally see good increases over the original. Perhaps Y4-4.5 billion ($48-54 million) here.

Pokemon 14 is the first film featuring Pokemon and Characters from the 5th Generation, and the current TV Show is having higher ratings than last season, so there should be a fresh feel for the new movie this summer. Last Summer's film grossed Y4.16 billion, despite opening against Toy Story 3 and Arrietty, so over Y4 billion should be assured for the new film. Y4.5-5 billion ($54-60 million) looks doable. The film opens on July 16th.

And there is the new Detective Conan 15 and Doraemon 31 this Spring, both probably going to gross Y3 billion ($36 million) or so again this year.



2011 isn't going to match 2010 when it comes to huge hits, both domestic and foreign, though. 2010 was just crazy huge with the big grosses. 2011 will have to rely on more mid-size hits to make up for this.

My Current Top 5 Films of 2011 Are:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides - Y11.5-13.0 billion ($135-155 million),
2. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II - Y8.5-9.5 billion ($105-115 million),
3. From Kokuriko Hill - Y7.5-8.5 billion ($90-105 million),
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I - Y7.1-7.3 billion ($85-88 million)
5. Space Battleship Yamato/Pokemon: Victini and the Dark Hero/Amalfi 2 - Y4.0-5.0 billion ($50-60 million)

September tends to have one big release every year though that grosses over Y4 billion, so the 5th spot is pretty open.

Thanks. There's not a lot seperating Pirates 4 and HP7-2, i don't know which one to pick.

Doaremon is up to its 31st release already my god, that's even more than James Bond.

Eh, Deathly Hallows Part 2 will need a big jump in admissions to top Pirates 4.

Deathly Hallows Part 1 is going to finish with about 5.7 million admissions, and if it had been in 3D, that would have meant about Y8.25 billion in gross (barely more than Half-Blood Prince). Deathly Hallows Part 2 will need at least 7 million admissions to reach Y10 billion and to challenge Pirates 4. It's doable, but unrealistic.

Using the average ticket price, Pirates 2 and Pirates 3 both received between 8-9 million admissions (Pirates 3 being closer to 9 million). If Pirates 4 can do 8 million admissions, then it can gross Y12 billion or slightly more with 3D prices. I wouldn't be surprised to see another increase in admissions for the franchise though considering Pirates 3 increased and had better legs than Pirates 2 as well. Depp is more popular than ever after Alice in Wonderland, too.

I just read the film will be released in Imax and 3D, so Y4 billion might be possible for the newest film. Many films are receiving the 3D treatment in Japan now after it's huge success in 2010. I'll update on which films will be in 3D as often as I can.

Doraemon, the franchise, has been around since 1969 and is definitely one of the biggest franchises in Japan:

2,189 episodes and counting (behind Sazae-san's 6,200+ episodes and counting, though ), and 31 theatrical film releases (behind Kamen Rider's 43 theatrical releases).

The National Top 10 was finally released:

01/08-09, 2011
Weekend Admission Rankings

1 1 Partners The Movie 2 (TOEI) 3
2 - Unstoppable (Fox) NEW
3 2 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 8
4 3 Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 6
5 5 Inazuma Eleven (Toho) 3
6 4 TRON: Legacy (Disney) 4
7 6 Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Featuring Skull: Movie War Core (TOEI) 4
8 7 Shrek Forever After (Paramount) 4
9 9 Abacus and Sword (Asmik Ace) 6
10 8 Last Ronin (Warner Bros.) 4

Partners 2 has grossed an est. Y2.07 billion ($24.5 million) after three weeks in release.

Unstoppable opens to Y224,593,200 ($2.7 million), with 179,731 admissions for the 2-day on 338 screens.

Space Battleship Yamato exceeds 3 million admissions, for Y3.683 billion ($44.4 million) after 6 weeks.

Inazuma Eleven has grossed an est. Y1.52 billion ($18.3 million) after 3 weeks.

Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider is up to Y1.251 billion ($15 million) after 4 weeks.

Abacus and Sword is holding strong, having grossed Y1.23 billion ($14.8 million) now after 6 weeks.


I'll post more numbers when they're available.

Weekend Summary
January 8-9, 2011

USD
1. Partners, the Movie 2 TOEI $2,797,976 3 327 $8,557 -9 $23,670,537
2. Unstoppable Fox $2,705,118 1 338 $8,003 0 $3,332,401
3. Space Battleship Yamato Toho $1,534,698 6 440 $3,488 -36 $43,807,920
4. Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows I Warner Bros. Int'l $1,526,553 8 644 $2,370 -38 $76,308,549
5. Inazuma Eleven Toho $1,334,460 3 229 $5,827 +6 $17,633,861
6. Tron Legacy Walt Disney Int'l $1,325,568 4 531 $2,496 -43 $20,958,914
7. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Feat. Skull Movie Taisen Core TOEI $851,400 4 275 $3,096 -18 $14,638,791
8. Shrek Forever After Paramount Int'l $764,806 4 407 $1,879 -33 $10,008,356
9. Norwegian Wood Toho $576,899 5 312 $1,849 +4 $13,805,505
10. Abacus and Sword Asmik Ace $561,878 6 237 $2,371 -10 $14,530,087

YEN
1　*1　*2億3176万4479円　 　*19億6421万1464円　　　327　　*3　相棒－劇場版II～
*2　*-　*2億2459万3200円　*2億7686万6785円　　　338　　*1　アンストッパブル
*3　*3　*1億2705万8127円　 　*36億1732万6701円　　　440　　*6　SPACE BATTLESHIP ヤマト
*4　*2　*1億2637万9440円　 　*63億4237万9071円　　　644　　*8　ハリー・ポッターと死の秘宝 PART1
*5　*5　*1億1037万1642円　 　*14億6032万1720円　　　229　　*3　劇場版イナズマイレブン～
*6　*4　*1億0963万0669円　 　*17億4490万9502円　　　531　　*4　トロン：レガシー
*7　*7　**億7011万6654円　 　*12億1156万5892円　　　275　　*4　仮面ライダー×仮面ライダー～
*8　*6　**億6290万0483円　 　**8億3402万6406円　　　407　　*4　シュレック　フォーエバー
*9　10　**億5096万1212円　 　*11億4204万2099円　　　312　　*5　ノルウェイの森
10　*9　**億4682万4923円　 　*12億0250万7302円　　　237　　*6　武士の家計簿

Partners 2 barely manages to hold off Unstoppable to claim it's third week on top. Very impressive for a TOEI release.

Space Battleship Yamato and Harry Potter continue to gross almost the exact same, but this time Yamato just edged ahead.

Both Inazuma Eleven and Norwegian Wood saw the biggest drops around 50% on New Year Weekend, and both increased this weekend.

I take back what I said about Shrek the other day. While it still may fall short of 1 billion Yen (40% less than Shrek 3), in USD it's going to come very close.


NOTE: Monday was another Holiday, so the few figures (minus Unstoppable) in the post above this one does include the Monday.

The 2010 Year Actual hasn't been released yet, but Distributor Toho's 2010 total comes to a staggering Y74,869,612,938 ($901,120,704), easily breaking their own record again. Toho is it's own country.

The entire 2010 Year has been reported to come in over Y220 billion ($2.63 billion), also setting a new record.

2010 Films that grossed Y1 billion ($12 million) or more.

A record year if there ever was one.

1. Avatar (Fox) - Y15.59 billion ($172/$187 million*), #8 (#4) All-Time
2. Alice in Wonderland (Disney) - Y11.85 billion ($144.3 million)
3. Toy Story 3 (Disney) - Y10.7 billion ($130.3 million)
4. The Borrower Arrietty (Toho) - Y9.25 billion ($113.5 million)
5. Umizaru 3: The Last Message (Toho) - Y8.02 billion ($98.4 million)
6. Bayside Shakedown 3: Set the Guys Loose! (Toho) - Y7.31 billion ($88.7 million)
7. Up (Disney) - Y5.0 billion ($60.3 million)
8. One Piece Film: Strong World (TOEI) - Y4.8 billion ($58.6 million)
9. Resident Evil IV: Afterlife (Sony) - Y4.7 billion ($57.4 million)
10. Pokemon Diamond & Pearl: Phantom Champion - Zoroark (Toho) - Y4.16 billion ($50.8 million)

11. Nodame Cantabile: The Final Score Part I (Toho) - Y4.1 billion ($49.3 million)
12. Confessions (Toho) - Y3.85 billion ($47.1 million)
13. 2012 (Sony) - Y3.8 billion ($46.5 million)
14. Nodame Cantabile: The Final Score Part II (Toho) - Y3.72 billion ($45.5 million)
15. SP: The Motion Picture (Toho) - Y3.6 billion ($44.2 million)
16. Inception (Warner Bros.) - Y3.5 billion ($42.9 million)
17. Detective Conan: Lost Ship in the Sky (Toho) - Y3.2 billion ($39.3 million)
18. Doraemon: Nobita's South Sea Adventure (Toho) - Y3.16 billion ($38.7 million)
19. Flowering Dogwood (Toho) - Y2.74 billion ($33.6 million)
20. Oceans (GAGA) - Y2.43 billion ($29.8 million)

21. Liar Game: The Final Stage (Toho) - Y2.36 billion ($28.9 million)
22. Knight & Day (Fox) - Y2.33 billion ($28.5 million)
23. The Lady Shogun and Her Men (Asmik Ace) - Y2.3 billion ($28.2 million)
24. Sherlock Holmes (Warner Bros.) - Y2.15 billion ($26.4 million)
25. Villain (Toho) - Y1.98 billion ($24.3 million)
26. Salt (Sony) - Y1.95 billion ($23.9 million)
27. Younger Brother (Shochiku) - Y1.9 billion ($23.3 million)
28. Trick: The Movie - Psychic Battle Royale (Toho) - Y1.85 billion ($22.6 million)
29. Sex and the City 2 (Warner Bros.) - Y1.8 billion ($22.1 million)
30. Beck (Shochiku) - Y1.71 billion ($21 million)

31. Shutter Island (Sony) - Y1.67 billion ($20.4 million)
32. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Double & Decade: Movie War (TOEI) - Y1.54 billion ($18.8 million)
33. Thirteen Assassins (Toho) - Y1.52 billion ($18.6 million)
35. Clash of the Titans (Warner Bros.) - Y1.5 billion ($18.4 million)
36. Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider Double & Decade: Forever A-Z (TOEI) - Y1.48 billion ($18.2 million)
37. Kimi ni Todoke (Toho) - Y1.45 billion ($17.7 million)
38. The Karate Kid (Sony) - Y1.4 billion ($17.1 million)
39. Kamen Rider Den O Movie Trilogy (TOEI) - Y1.31 billion ($15.8 million)
40. Percy Jackson and the Olympians (Fox) - Y1.3 billion ($15.8 million)

41. Despicable Me (Toho-Towa) - Y1.27 billion ($15.6 million)
42. Crayon Shin-chan: Super Dimension (Toho) - Y1.25 billion ($15.3 million)
43. The Incite Mill: 7-Day Death Game (Warner Bros.) - Y1.21 billion ($14.8 million)
44. Iron Man 2 (Paramount) - Y1.19 billion ($14.5 million)
45. Pretty Cure DX2: All Stars Deluxe (TOEI) - Y1.15 billion ($14.1 million)
46. Golden Slumber (Toho) - Y1.1 billion ($13.5 million)
47. Sayonaraitsu (Asmik Ace) - Y1.1 billion ($13.5 million)
48. Gintama: Shinyaku Benizakura-hen (Warner Bros.) - Y1.07 billion ($13.1 million)
49. Naruto Shippuden: The Lost Tower (Toho) - Y1.03 billion ($12.6 million)
50. Pretty Cure Heartcatch: Fashion and Adventures in Paris!? (TOEI) - Y1.01 billion ($12.3 million)

51. The Sorcerer's Apprentice (Disney) - Y1.0 billion ($12.2 million)

*If Avatar's re-release included makes up the second total, and converted post-rerelease. BOM did this, but seems a tad unfair to add so much. But hey, whatever.

57 films were reported to have grossed Y1 billion or more this year.

As I thought might happen, the Kamen Rider Trilogy from last Summer were counted as a single film (all three films were released within 6 weeks of each other), and a single gross. So with more 2010 updates coming in, it's been included (currently ranking 39th).

There are still 6 films missing from the list above though that will be included over the course of this month. Outrage, The Expendables, and Mobile Gundam 00 will likely be three of those films as they were around Y900 million when tracking ended.

Weekend Forecast
01/15-16, 2011

1 - 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife (Toho) NEW
2 1 Partners, The Movie 2 (TOEI) 4
3 2 Unstoppable (Fox) 2
4 - The Social Network (Sony) NEW
5 3 Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 7
6 4 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 9
7 5 Inazuma Eleven (Toho) 4
8 6 TRON: Legacy (Disney) 5
9 7 Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider OOO & W Feat. Skull Movie Taisen Core (TOEI) 5
10 8 Shrek Forever After (Paramount) 5

The Poll also ended this week, resulting in a tie-vote. So I'll be testing both options out starting next week. Thanks for voting.

Interesting that they are releasing TSN now in Japan when the DVD's are just about to come out.

Anyways Corpse what is expected from these kind of movies. I am thinking this will have a little better legs because of Awards (probably GG if they are considered in Japan) and the general WOM.

Well, Facebook isn't popular in Japan so I doubt many will care about the story or characters of The Social Network really. Very, very few use it. Mixi, released in 2000, is most popular in Japan with over 75% of the social networking market.

However, award films do perform well in Japan if they win the big awards. For example, Japan was by far The Hurt Locker's biggest foreign market with a gross of $8 million. It was released during the Award Season over here, too.

So it's clear Sony waited until now to release The Social Network in Japan to benefit from it's likely Oscar wins of Best Picture/Best Director. I would have held off a few more weeks to get it closer to the Academy Awards though.

How about Fincher's track record in Japan?

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button - 2.40 billion yen ($25.5 million in 2009)
Panic Room - 1.87 billion yen ($15.5 million in 2002)
Zodiac - Approx. 411 million yen ($3.4 million in 2007)

One MOVIX Cinema in Miyoshi has Saturday advance tickets looking like this:

Rank/Movie/Tickets Sold/Seats Available
1. 1,778 Stories - 52/512
2. Partners 2 - 38/201
3. Inazuma - 32/332
4. Unstoppable - 29/155
5. Social Network - 23/228
6. Yamato - 19/110
7. Harry Potter - 18/124

I'm predicting an opening weekend between $1.5-2 million for The Social Network. With an expansion around the Oscars, such an opening should allow it to reach $10 million.

Data from the usual locations (10/15% of the market) currently has 1,778 Stories selling 83% of the tickets Norwegian Wood sold opening day (Saturday). If 83% would remain constant for the entire day, and for Sunday, 1,778 Stories would open with about 110,000 admissions (150-160 million yen or $1.8/1.9 million).

The same locations have The Social Network selling 44% of the tickets TRON sold on Saturday (TRON opened on Friday). And if 44% also remains constant for the entire day, and for Sunday, then The Social Network would open with about 75,000 admissions (90-100 million yen or $1.1/1.2 million).

The Social Network is a little more difficult to project due to TRON having opened on a Friday as opposed to Saturday. The 1600 yen ($20) average ticket prices for TRON are also a factor.

I think The Social Network will manage $10 million in the long run thanks to awards buzz alone.

Weekend Admission Rankings by Location (TOHO, SHIKOKU, WARNER):


TOHO

1 - 1,778 Stories of Me and My Wife (Toho) NEW
2 - The Social Network (Sony) NEW
3 1 Unstoppable (Fox) 2
4 2 Partners, The Movie 2 (TOEI) 4
5 4 Inazuma Eleven (Toho) 4
6 3 Space Battleship Yamato (Toho) 7
7 5 Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I (Warner Bros.) 9
8 6 TRON: Legacy (Disney) 5
9 7 Shrek Forever After (Paramount) 5
10 8 Norwegian Wood (Toho) 6

Inazuma Eleven holding so well again is quite shocking. Many films of it's type tend to drop out of the Top 10 after 3/4 weeks. It's going to pass $20 million (may be there after this weekend even) without much difficulty now, and has a good shot at $25 million. 3D of course is helping, but attendance is great too.

Shikoku and Warner later tonight.

Apparently The Social Network made $2 million. With Oscar buzz ahead, it should be good for a $10+ million finish.