Awesome news! Thanks for the update on HTTYD Corpse

I thought MHA franchise potential is over, SS4 is very quiet, Jump decide to abandon this in favor of Kimetsu no Yaiba franchise which is in the care of franchise-milking specialist company 'Ufotable'.

Hi, after this really good friday for Star Wars 9, how much can we expect for total weekend ? What about Frozen 2 (I heard that Frozen 2 had only 15% drop, is it a good sign with Star Wars 9 opening and before christmas and new year coming) ?

Frozen II was never going to be hurt by Star Wars opening. There's no overlap whatsoever. Frozen II won't enjoy a weekend drop of 15% like its Fri.-to-Fri. decline, but it's still likely to hold pretty well (still thinking 25/30% right now).

I'll be posting the pre-sales for Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker soon (just a few minutes from now), followed by the hourly ticket sale updates that I've done in the past for other major openers throughout the weekend.

So far, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is doing exactly what it was expected to do -- open on par with its predecessors given the reliably core fanbase.

If it has a similar pre-sales to weekend admissions multiplier as the previous two films, it'll end up opening with around 770,000 admissions, giving it a weekend gross around ¥1.2 billion ($11 million). So it's looking at a 3-day total of ¥1.7/1.8 billion ($15/16 million) with 1.1/1.2 million admissions, very near the 3-day openings of the last two films.

Good start for Episode IX, practically the same as Episode VIII (a mere 239 less). It should follow a very similar path all day as Episode VIII too, and likely finish around 280,000/290,000 or so, on par with both its predecessors.

Episode VII began the day noticeably higher than both films due to higher pre-sales and upfront demand surrounding the return of Star Wars, but only finished slightly higher Episode VIII by the end of the day since the franchise is fanbase-driven, and fanbase-limited.

Frozen 2 started the day with 50% did my a concern.
Why Friday drop is just 13% but Saturday drop more?

Well, Saturday has only just begun.

As films play longer, their earliest and latest showings typically get cut first (usually on Saturdays, the start of the weekend), so sometimes morning ticket sales can look way down compared to last week because of this. Percentage chances week-to-week greatly fluctuate until around 2PM, when they begin to stabilize for the day.

But again, don't worry about Frozen. It's held well ever since it opened, and it's not going to suddenly see a big drop-off.

No point. These are the WORRIERS. you can say n number of times but once they see a number that is even 1% worse they will be here 99% of time. :-)

I understand being excited, or inquisitive, about a film you have an interest ins performance. So I don't mind the questions (better than no discussion occurring).

And now it does appear Frozen may be headed for a 35/40% drop Sat.-to-Sat., a bit higher than I was expecting. It'll probably have a much better Sun.-to-Sun. hold since last Sunday was slightly deflated (day before finals began, last week of the second semester) though, so I'm still expecting a weekend decline of 25/30% in the end.

School Holiday will start from next monday in Japan? Can it help the drop in this Sunday?

Yes. Tomorrow should be noticeably stronger than last Sunday.

Awesome. I agree its better to have discussion. Thanks for the posts anyway. This is the best thread(probably the only relevant one) on this forum.

I think if we look at the presale for sunday and compare it to last sunday presale, it can give us the general idea about the drop and how it will perform tomorrow ?

Pre-sales for Sunday aren't available; not unless you want to count the individual admissions from each theater itself.

Episode IX will end up finishing the day a little below Episodes VII and VIII, probably hitting 270,000 when the day closes. That'd be about 8% behind Episode VII, and 5% behind Episode VIII. Still incredibly consistent, even if it does end up opening below both films for the weekend itself.

I'll have the final Saturday update up in a few hours, along with a short analysis of how the other openers and notable holdovers fared.

Usual Locations (~70% of Market) - Weekend Admissions

Biggest Openers Since 2015:

Saturday Results (~70% of Market):
Tickets Sold/Available Tickets (% Capacity), [Theaters/Showings], Film Title
452,803/1,077,542 (42.0% capacity), [267/3,777] - Frozen II (Nov., 2019)
348,024/605,267 (57.4% capacity), [239/1,676] - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)
345,143/655,976 (52.6% capacity), [249/1,832] - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
332,987/725,315 (45.9% capacity), [258/2,202] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019)
330,349/701,865 (47.1% capacity), [247/2,864] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)
317,709/530,456 (59.9% capacity), [231/1,727] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)
293,246/714,702 (41.0% capacity), [236/2,789] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
289,656/530,905 (54.5% capacity), [230/1,502] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)
286,726/658,842 (43.5% capacity), [231/2,256] - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)
283,482/670,255 (42.3% capacity), [254/2,527] - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
279,289/719,848 (38.8% capacity), [261/2,370] - Weathering With You (July, 2019)
274,872/775,754 (35.4% capacity), [262/2,657] - Toy Story 4 (July, 2019)
274,621/729,871 (37.6% capacity), [267/2,669] - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Dec., 2019)
271,313/719,670 (37.7% capacity), [261/2,374] - Aladdin (June, 2019)
266,911/816,498 (32.7% capacity), [251/3,196] - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
262,671/667,610 (39.3% capacity), [245/2,327] - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
248,613/533,783 (46.6% capacity), [258/2,293] - Avengers: Endgame (Apr., 2019)
241,332/608,132 (39.7% capacity), [250/1,979] - Code Blue (July, 2018)
227,517/473,967 (48.0% capacity), [221/1,582] - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015)
217,221/919,956 (23.6% capacity), [258/3,250] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Nov., 2018)
209,804/462,825 (45.3% capacity), [229/1,366] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Apr., 2015)
205,137/648,401 (31.6% capacity), [259/2,096] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (June, 2019)
202,075/451,836 (44.7% capacity), [218/1,257] - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
196,491/520,369 (37.8% capacity), [237/1,744] - Jurassic World (Aug., 2015)
193,053/648,160 (29.8% capacity), [252/2,037] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Dec., 2018)
191,730/585,196 (32.8% capacity), [254/1,787] - One Piece: Stampede (Aug., 2019)
187,901/485,825 (38.7% capacity), [235/1,574] - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018)
174,835/517,134 (33.8% capacity), [260/1,835] - Spider-Man: Far From Home (June, 2019)
174,797/501,322 (34.8% capacity), [240/1,487] - Doraemon: Nobita's Great Adventure in the Antarctic (Mar., 2017)
166,650/766,440 (21.7% capacity), [241/2,556] - Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Nov., 2016)
165,385/471,596 (35.1% capacity), [262/2,020] - The Lion King (Aug., 2019)
157,910/547,894 (28.9% capacity), [252/1,655] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Mar., 2019)
157,739/484,007 (32.6% capacity), [247/1,422] - Masquerade Hotel (Jan., 2019)
151,875/419,163 (36.2% capacity), [251/1,655] - Avengers: Infinity War (Apr., 2018)
139,061/668,663 (20.8% capacity), [236/2,346] - Finding Dory (July, 2016)
136,031/515,406 (26.4% capacity), [233/1,460] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Mar., 2016)
136,021/413,696 (32.9% capacity), [259/1,802] - Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (July, 2019)

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker finished Saturday just 6% behind Star Wars: The Force Awakens and 3% behind Star Wars: The Last Jedi.

And while it should have beaten them, being a conclusion film and all which typically enjoy bigger opening weekends than their predecessors, this is still a strong result following the negative reaction towards The Last Jedi. Despite opening almost on par with The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi finished 36% below it to become the most-frontloaded and lowest-grossing Star Wars film since Episode XI.

I highly doubt Episode XI will be as disliked or frontloaded as Episode VIII, so it should have a healthier multiplier and end up outgrossing it, even if it ends up with a slightly lower opening weekend. It's still very early, but a total of ¥8/9 billion ($70-80 million) is achievable.

I'll have a Star Wars Box Office History post up later today. I forgot to post it yesterday.