Both of those films were the biggest surprises among imported films, I agree. Distributor Gaga, a very small independent studio, put everything they had into the release of The Three Musketeers and it paid off. The King's Speech isn't far behind, though, it became the highest grossing BP winner since Return of the King.

The Earthquake closed about 2/3 of Cinemas for over a month, and limited showtimes available for even longer (to conserve power). The year held up a little better than forecasts had it in November, though, and it was enough to give Japan another year on top of the international box office charts ($2.34 billion). I don't believe China went quite that high anyway. So overall, despite the 17.9% decline, it was a successful year that 2012 is already improving upon with ten films exceeding the 1 billion yen mark.

All the information I posted today can now be found in the first post, on the first page, of this thread.

January 28-29, 2011
Weekend Forecast

1 ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 (Toho) Week 2
2 Shinzanmono: The Movie (Toho) Week 1
3 J. Edgar (Warner Bros.) Week 1
4 Robo-G (Toho) Week 3
5 The Documentary of AKB48: The Show Must Go On (Toho Video Division) Week 1
6 Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (Paramount) Week 7
7 Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger vs. Space Sheriff Gavan: The Movie (Toho) Week 2
8 Tempest 3D (Kadokawa Pictures) Week 1
9 You're My Pet (Toho-Towa) Week 2
10 Magical Tree House (Gaga) Week 4

ALWAYS 3 will remain on top for three or four more weeks, likely dropping less than 25/30% in it's second weekend to gross ¥400 million+ ($5 million+).

Shinzanmono is doing well in advance ticket sales (55.7% compared to Always 3 this time last week), and is aiming for 225-250,000 admissions this weekend on 326 screens. That'll equal about ¥275-300 million ($3.4-3.7 million) for the weekend.

J.Edgar is only playing in 138 theaters, much lower than Eastwood's films from the past few years. Usually his films open near 200 million, and with Leo 200 million+ looked safe, but with fewer locations I think it'll miss that mark with ¥165-190 million ($2.1-2.4 million). Leo missing out on a Best Actor nomination could be the reason for the lower theater count.

This year's Documentary of AKB48 will probably best last year's opening (114 million) thanks to the girls ever increasing popularity, so ¥125-150 million ($1.6-1.9 million) looks good. Interestingly, BOM never included last year's film on it's charts, opening weekend (it actually debuted in 4th) or otherwise.

Tempest 3D is tricky to rank because it's playing in 3D only. It's opening in 157 theaters, pretty good for a Kadokawa Pictures release, so perhaps ¥50-60 million ($650-750,000).

The Box Office Charts were looking too cluttered again, so I cleaned them up and edited the list so that they're much easier to read:

Top Grossing Films (2012)
Rank :: Revenue ¥ (billion) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (million) :: Days In Release :: Distributor
01 :: ¥4.77 / $62.02 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 3.75 :: 38 :: Paramount
02 :: ¥3.06 / $39.78 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 2.29 :: 58 :: Toho
03 :: ¥1.56 / $20.26 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 1.19 :: 51 :: Shochiku
04 :: ¥1.50 / $19.54 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 1.29 :: 44 :: TOEI
05 :: ¥1.42 / $18.40 :: Friends: Naki On Monster Island :: Dec '10 :: 1.07 :: 37 :: Toho
06 :: ¥1.41 / $18.28 :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 1.10 :: 45 :: Walt Disney
07 :: ¥1.33 / $17.30 :: Tale of Genji :: Dec '10 :: 1.11 :: 44 :: Toho
08 :: ¥1.31 / $17.04 :: Fleet Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto :: Dec '10 :: 1.00 :: 31 :: TOEI
09 :: ¥1.09 / $14.18 :: Inazuma Eleven GO: The Movie :: Dec '10 :: .888 :: 31 :: Toho
10 :: ¥1.09 / $14.16 :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: .754 :: 53 :: Toho-Towa
11 :: ¥.608 / $7.90 :: Wild 7 :: Dec '10 :: .483 :: 33 :: Warner Bros.
12 :: ¥.556 / $7.22 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: .421 :: 2 :: Toho

Top Opening Weekends (2012)
Rank :: Revenue ¥ (million) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (thousand) :: Screen Count :: Distributor
01 :: ¥581.04 / $7.50 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 431.09 :: 446 :: Toho
02 :: ¥573.22 / $7.34 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 437.75 :: 636 ::Paramount
03 :: ¥555.66 / $7.22 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 421.27 :: 473 :: Toho
04 :: ¥378.03 / $4.84 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 333.13 :: 301 :: TOEI
05 :: ¥316.31 / $4.08 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 237.82 :: 137 :: Shochiku
06 :: ¥225.05 / $2.88 :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 176.25 :: 531 :: Walt Disney
07 :: ¥219.51 / $2.83 :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: 148.70 :: 895 :: Toho-Towa
08 :: ¥202.39 / $2.63 :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 164.69 :: 279 :: Toho
09 :: ¥163.59 / $2.09 :: Tale of Genji :: Dec '10 :: 128.83 :: 414 :: Toho
10 :: ¥160.87 / $2.08 :: Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger vs. Space Sheriff Gavan: The Movie :: Jan. :: 159.23 :: TOEI
11 :: ¥150.79 / $1.93 :: Fleet Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto :: Dec '10 :: 124.97 :: 308 :: TOEI
12 :: ¥141.68 / $1.81 :: Friends: Naki On Monster Island :: Dec '10 :: 103.89 :: 334 :: Toho

Also, if anyone was wondering why Nov. and Dec. films are on the charts, I recently discovered the full reason.

December releases are always including on the next year's charts because the Box Office year begins on Dec. 1st. I knew that much, but sometimes November releases also find themselves on next year's charts. The reason being, any film released in November that doesn't gross at least ¥1 billion (about $13 million) before Dec. 1st is considered a new year release by the MPAJ.

Ok, I watched the trailer for A Letter to Momo and I thought it was hilarious. The comparisons to Spirited Away are kind of inevitable though. Is this going to be huge come April?

It's Box Office potential doesn't look good, unfortunately, because it's being distributed by Kadokawa Pictures. They're a smaller studio, and films released by them rarely reach ¥1 billion. In fact, I can only find one of their releases, "Drop", hitting the mark since 2006.

That's not to say a sub-¥1 billion gross will be a disappointment, though. It'll likely receive a limited release but finish strong based on appropriate comparisons and expectations. Comparing it's Box Office to this year's Detective Conan film (opening the week prior) would be really unfair for example.

On the plus side, director Hiroyuki Okiura (previous work as an animator include: "Akira", "Ghost in the Shell") is popular, and "A Letter to Momo" has already received acclaim at various film festivals since last year. The release date, April 21st, is also good since its right before the Golden Week Holidays. I wouldn't rule out at least acceptable Box Office results this GW, and there is always WOM to consider.

That sucks about the distribution. I was thinking it could be another anime hit.

Shinzanmono: The Movie performed very well on opening day according to Toho (already announcing they expect it to reach ¥3 billion (almost $40 million)), and the usual data suggests it will break ¥300 million ($4 million), maybe ¥350 million ($4.5 million) this weekend.

To reach Toho's high projection of ¥3 billion, however, would require an opening over ¥400 million ($5 million). And as I've said many times, Toho has an annoying habit of overprojecting their films and that's probably the case again here, but it's too early to say. If it opens to ¥300/350 million, ¥2.5 billion ($30 million+) is certainly attainable, though. Either way, Toho, and 2012, continues its strong start for the new year.

No news or data on the other openers has been released.

Jan. 28-29, Weekend Estimates based on the Usual Data:

ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 (Toho) ¥375-400 million ($4.8-5.2 million), Week 2
Shinzanmono: The Movie (Toho) ¥285-310 million ($3.6-4.0 million), Week 1
Robo-G (Toho) ¥115-125 million ($1.5-1.7 million), Week 3
Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (Paramount) ¥95-105 million ($1.2-1.4 million), Week 7
Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger vs. Space Sheriff Gavan: The Movie (TOEI) ¥80-90 million ($1-1.1 million), Week 2
Magical Tree House (Gaga) ¥45-50 million ($575-625,000), Week 4
You're My Pet (Toho-Towa) ¥35-40 million ($450-500,000), Week 2
Johnny English Reborn (Toho-Towa) ¥20-25,000 million ($250-300,000), Week 2
Inazuma Eleven GO: The Movie (Toho) ¥15-20 million ($200-250,000), Week 6
Fleet Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto (TOEI) ¥15-20 million ($200-250,000), Week 6
My Way (TOEI) ¥10-15 million ($150-200,000), Week 3

Still no weekend data for the other openers this weekend.

Upcoming Release Schedule

February 3rd:
Tower Heist (Toho-Towa)

February 4th:
Japan's Islands - Tales of the Animals (Toho)
Arakawa Under the Bridge (Sony)
Berserk Golden Age Ark I (Warner Bros.)
Beastly (Fainfirumuzu)

February 10th:
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (Sony)

February 11th:
Phoenix Wright Ace Attorney: The Movie (Toho)
Woodpeckers and Rain (Kadokawa Pictures)
Hayabusa's Return (TOEI)

February 17th:
In Time (Fox)
Melancholia (Broad Media Studios)

February 18th:
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (Warner Bros.)
Carnage (Sony)
Seiji: Riku no Sakana (Gaga)

February 24th:
Underworld: Awakening (Sony)

February 25th:
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 (Kadokawa Pictures)
Water for Elephants (Esupio)
Pina 3D (Gaga)
Young Adult (Paramount)

March 1st:
Hugo (Paramount)

March 2nd:
War Horse (Walt Disney)

March 3rd:
Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles (Toho)
Liar Game: Reborn (Toho)

March 10th:
Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows (Warner Bros.)
Welcome Home, Hayabusa (Shochiku)
Shame (Gaga)
3,000 Juvenile Delinquents (TOEI)
Strike Withes: The Movie (Shochiku)

March 16th:
The Iron Lady (Gaga)
Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace 3D (Fox)

March 17th:
Like I Was (Toho/Asmik Ace)
Puss in Boots (Paramount)
Precure All Stars DX3: New Stage (TOEI)
Ouran High School Host Club: The Movie (Sony)

March 24th:
Ultraman Saga (Shochiku)
The Eagle (Uzumasa)
My Week With Marilyn (Kadokawa Pictures)
Take Shelter (Presido)

March 31st:
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island (Warner Bros.)
The Help (Walt Disney)
The Ides of March (Shochiku)
Drive (Clock Works)

I have been at work on a Japan Box Office Blog the past couple days, and I'm satisfied enough to launch it this weekend before we get any farther into 2012.

Japan Box Office Watch

Right now there is only the Cinema Chain Rankings from this weekend, a Top 50 All-Time Ranking chart, and links to various sources. It will continue to expand, though, so those who follow this thread should definitely bookmark it. In addition to Box Office updates, the blog will go more in-depth with weekly rankings (never posted these before), reviews, and more.

I would really appreciate feedback and comments.

And I'm not going to abandon this thread or my series of threads. It's just going to be more condensed, mostly consisting of Weekend Forecasts, Weekend Results, and mid-week Yearly Chart updates.

Weekend Ranking is up!

Always 3 dips below 30% it's second weekend, one more strong hold and ¥4 billion ($50 million) will be locked, if it wasn't already upon opening weekend. Shizanmono opens well, but a little lower than initial numbers suggested. J. Edgar disappoints more than expected. M:I-4 remains strong with another Top 5 ranking in it's seventh week, breaking ¥5 billion ($65 million) (though it's not reported yet).

(Domestic)
01 :: Toho :: ¥59,111,105,930 ($766.18 million), 32.6% Market Share.
02 :: TOEI :: ¥16,732,959,343 ($216.89 million), 9.2% Market Share.
03 :: Shochiku :: ¥9,750,186,500 ($126.38 million), 5.4% Market Share.
04 :: Gaga :: ¥5,560,295,381 ($72.07 million), 3.1% Market Share.
05 :: Toho-Towa :: ¥4,471,964,850 ($57.96 million), 2.5% Market Share.

(International)
01 :: Walt Disney :: ¥19,455,660,550 ($252.18 million), 10.7% Market Share.
02 :: Warner Bros. :: ¥18,008,109,200 ($233.42 million), 9.9% Market Share.
03 :: Paramount :: ¥12,830,771,000 ($166.31 million), 7.1% Market Share.
04 :: FOX :: ¥12,249,568,410 ($158.78 million), 6.8% Market Share.
05 :: Sony :: ¥6,483,150,800 ($84.03 million), 3.6% Market Share.


(Top Distributors of 2011)

Top Grossing Films (2012)
Rank :: Revenue ¥ (billion) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (million) :: Days In Release :: Distributor
01 :: ¥5.02 / $65.71 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 3.94 :: 45 :: Paramount
02 :: ¥3.08 / $40.34 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 2.31 :: 65 :: Toho
03 :: ¥1.59 / $20.83 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 1.22 :: 58 :: Shochiku
04 :: ¥1.51 / $19.78 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 1.30 :: 51 :: TOEI
05 :: ¥1.44 / $18.89 :: Friends: Naki On Monster Island :: Dec '10 :: 1.10 :: 45 :: Toho
06 :: ¥1.43 / $18.74 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 1.11 :: 9 :: Toho
07 :: ¥1.42 / $18.60 :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 1.11 :: 52 :: Walt Disney
08 :: ¥1.38 / $18.07 :: Tale of Genji :: Dec '10 :: 1.14 :: 51 :: Toho
09 :: ¥1.37 / $17.94 :: Fleet Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto :: Dec '10 :: 1.08 :: 38 :: TOEI
10 :: ¥1.11 / $14.54 :: Inazuma Eleven GO: The Movie :: Dec '10 :: .911 :: 38 :: Toho
11 :: ¥1.09 / $14.16 :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: .754 :: TE :: Toho-Towa
12 :: ¥.749 / $9.80 :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: .607 :: 16 :: Toho

M:I-4 breaks 5 billion yen (should finish between $70-75 million), ALWAYS 3 climbs 6 spots after debuting last weekend, Robo-G's entry bumps Wild 7 off.


Top Opening Weekends (2012)
Rank :: Revenue ¥ (million) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (thousand) :: Screen Count :: Distributor
01 :: ¥581.04 / $7.50 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 431.09 :: 446 :: Toho
02 :: ¥573.22 / $7.34 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 437.75 :: 636 ::Paramount
03 :: ¥555.66 / $7.22 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 421.27 :: 473 :: Toho
04 :: ¥378.03 / $4.84 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 333.13 :: 301 :: TOEI
05 :: ¥316.31 / $4.08 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 237.82 :: 137 :: Shochiku
06 :: ¥276.41 / $3.62 :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 217.18 :: 377 :: Toho
07 :: ¥225.05 / $2.88 :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 176.25 :: 531 :: Walt Disney
08 :: ¥219.51 / $2.83 :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: 148.70 :: 895 :: Toho-Towa
09 :: ¥202.39 / $2.63 :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 164.69 :: 279 :: Toho
10 :: ¥163.59 / $2.09 :: Tale of Genji :: Dec '10 :: 128.83 :: 414 :: Toho
11 :: ¥160.87 / $2.08 :: Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger vs. Space Sheriff Gavan: The Movie :: Jan. :: 159.23 :: 263 :: TOEI
12 :: ¥150.79 / $1.93 :: Fleet Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto :: Dec '10 :: 124.97 :: 308 :: TOEI

New Entry
TE (Tracking Ends)

January 28-29, 2012
Weekend Results



01 ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 (Toho) ¥407,441,346 ($5,337,482), -26%, ¥1,430,720,194 ($18,742,435), Week 2
02 Shizanmono: The Movie (Toho) ¥276,408,053 ($3,620,945), 0, ¥276,408,053 ($3,620,945), Week 1
03 Robo-G (Toho) ¥124,835,077 ($1,635,339), -29%, ¥748,468,469 ($9,804,937), Week 3
04 Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (Paramount) ¥102,765,623 ($1,346,229), -31%, ¥5,016,125,490 ($65,711,244), Week 7
05 Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger Vs. Space Sheriff Gavan: The Movie (TOEI) ¥93,327,763 ($1,222,594), -42%, ¥298,033,717 ($3,904,242), Week 2　
06 J. Edgar (Warner Bros.) ¥75,678,597 ($991,390), 0, ¥75,678,597 ($75,678,597), Week 1
07 The Documentary of AKB48: The Show Must Go On (Toho) ¥74,204,886 ($972,084), 0, ¥74,204,886 ($972,084), Week 1
08 Magic Tree House (Gaga) ¥47,993,521 ($628,715), -29%, ¥400,617,779 ($5,248,093), Week 4
09 You're My Pet (Toho-Towa) ¥42,420,424 ($555,707), -38%, ¥186,406,292 ($2,441,922), Week 2
10 Bread of Happiness (Asmik Ace) ¥35,500,654 ($465,059), +346%, ¥55,210,816 ($723,262), Week 2

February 4-5, 2012
Weekend Forecast

01 ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 (Toho) Week 3
02 Shizanmono: The Movie (Toho) Week 2
03 Japan's Islands - Tales of the Animals (Toho) Week 1
04 Berserk Golden Age: Arc I (Warner Bros.) Week 1
05 Robo-G (Toho) Week 4
06 Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (Paramount) Week 8
07 Arakawa Under the Bridge (Sony) Week 1
08 Tower Heist (Toho-Towa) Week 1
09 Kaizoku Sentai Gokaiger Vs Space Sheriff Gavan: The Movie (TOEI) Week 3
10 J. Edgar (Warner Bros.) Week 2


ALWAYS 3 will continue it's hold on the top spot, likely grossing just over ¥300 million ($4 million) for the weekend and exceeding ¥2 billion ($26 million) in total.

The biggest opener this weekend, unless Berserk Golden Age: Arc I surprises, will be Japan's Islands - Tales of the Animals. Island's should make ¥150-175 million (around $2 million), and Berserk ¥100-125 million (about $1.5 million).

M:I-4 will surpass 4 million admissions (first movie to do so since Pokemon 14 and Harry Potter 7.2 last July) and ¥5.1 billion ($67 million) after eight weeks.

Both Arakawa and Tower Heist will debut with ¥75 million (near $1 million) or so. I'm giving the edge to Arakawa since Tower Heist opens on Friday. M:I4 and Robo-G are also likely to make about that this weekend, too, so the four films could rank anywhere between 5-8.

Wow, I just now randomly discovered that Berserk is opening in Japan, like right now. I've never wanted to be in Japan and speak Japanese more than I do right now! Film looks beautiful.

The film indeed looks gorgeous. But you may not want to be there this weekend.

There is a deadly snowstorm, said to be the worst in 6 years, hitting the west coast which has killed dozens of people already. I hope it lightens up really soon, they've suffered enough over the past year.

Taking this into consideration, Always 3 will likely see a large drop this weekend because it's main audience consists of old/elderly people, as I really doubt they'll risk going outside this weekend. People in their 40's and 50's made up 60% of it's audience opening weekend, and those in their 60's and 70's made up 7%. I still see it taking first again this weekend, though, because Shizanmono also skews older (not nearly as old, however) so it's much of it's audience will probably stay indoors as well.

The overall weekend itself will probably be somewhat deflated.

I forgot to mention it in the Weekend Forecast, but if Always 3 stays on top this weekend, it's likely to remain there until the first weekend of March, and that would give it 6 weeks in first.

There's going to be three Berserk films, by the way, Proud Ryu.

I know, I can't wait - I guess it's good to have something to look forward to. Kentaro Miura has certainly taught me patience.

And dang, poor Japan.

The second film is scheduled for June, but no date is set at the moment. And the third film is suppose to be released late 2012.

I'm not going to bother posting Weekend Projections based on Saturday's Data because I think the Weekend Data will be a lot different, but Saturday wasn't hit too bad by the snow (maybe hurting most films by 5/10%). I'll note that Tower Heist performed better than expected though (might reach 100 million yen), and could debut in the Top 5.

Always 3 is still going to claim 1st with relative ease for a third week, possibly setting up for a six week run on top.

Do you have an overview of the KAMEN RIDER series?

Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max is the ??th movie in the series?

Overall, there have been 39 theatrical releases (Fourze being the 39th) in the Kamen Rider series, 41 if the trilogy of films released in 2010 are counted as separate releases, since 1971. That doesn't include crossover films or spin-offs either. If it did, it's over 50. I can check for an exact number if you want.

For some time now, there has been a new Kamen Rider release (including crossovers like this April's Kamen Rider X Super Sentai film) every April, August, and December every year.

Weekend Rankings by Cinema are up.

Thank You - So how would you shorten Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max? Kamen Rider 39 or Kamen Rider 41?

I'd call it Kamen Rider 39. While the trilogy of films released during Summer 2010 were separate releases, their admissions and revenue were later combined at the end of the year.