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 Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (06/15-16) 
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: All Time Multipliers
All-Time Best Multipliers (¥1 Billion Earners Only) [1998-]

01. x36.75 - Bohemian Rhapsody (Nov., 2018) [Final Estimate]
02. x33.34 - Frozen (Mar., 2014)
03. x30.37 - Spirited Away (July, 2001)
04. x26.99 - Princess Mononoke (July, 1997)
05. x26.92 - Your Name. (Aug., 2016)
06. x26.13 - Avatar (Dec., 2009)
07. x23.21 - Departures (Sept., 2008)
08. x19.96 - Les Miserables (Dec., 2012)
09. x17.07 - Zootopia (Apr., 2016)
10. x16.44 - The Cat Returns (July, 2002)
11. x16.15 - The Eternal Zero (Dec., 2013)
12. x15.69 - Monsters, Inc. (Mar., 2002)
13. x15.29 - Big Hero 6 (Dec., 2014)
14. x15.25 - The Last Samurai (Dec., 2003)
15. x14.98 - Ponyo (July, 2008)
16. x14.84 - Howl's Moving Castle (Nov., 2004)
17. x14.81 - Always: Sunset on Third Street (Nov., 2005)
18. x14.27 - Tonde Saitama (Mar., 2019) [Final Estimate]
19. x14.25 - Confessions (June, 2010)
20. x13.96 - Let Me Eat Your Pancreas (July, 2017)
21. x13.96 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (July, 2003)
22. x13.83 - Thermae Romae (Apr., 2012)
23. x13.64 - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (May, 2004)
24. x13.36 - The Greatest Showman (Feb., 2018)
25. x13.23 - Every Day, A Good Day (Oct., 2018)
26. x13.20 - Shin Godzilla (July, 2016)
27. x13.09 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Dec., 2001)
28. x12.98 - Summer Wars (Aug., 2009)
29. x12.88 - Ted (Jan., 2013)
30. x12.51 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013)
31. x12.50 - The Phantom of the Opera (Jan., 2005)
32. x12.48 - Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl (Aug., 2003)
33. x12.24 - Finding Nemo (Dec., 2003)
34. x12.21 - Despicable Me 3 (July, 2017)
35. x12.16 - Wolf Children (July, 2012)


Entries By Month: July (10); December (7); August (3); November (3); March (3); January (2); April (2); February (1); May (1); June (1); September (1); October (1).

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Last edited by Corpse on Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Jun 04, 2019 7:18 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 2019 Top Multipliers
2019 - Top Multipliers (¥1 Billion Earners Only)

↑15x (Phenomenal)
x14.27 - Tonde Saitama
x11.22 - Love Live! The School Idol Movie - Over the Rainbow
x10.13 - Green Book

↑10x (Excellent)
x9.81 - Kingdom [7 Weeks in Release]
x8.38 - Ralph Breaks the Internet

↑8x (Great)
x7.73 - A Star is Born
x7.70 - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
x7.29 - You Shine in the Moonlight
x7.26 - Masquerade Hotel
x7.14 - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration
x7.11 - Fortuna's Eye

↑7x (Good)
x6.84 - Crayon Shin-chan: Hurricane Honeymoon, The Lost Hiroshi [7 Weeks in Release]
x6.34 - The Seven Conferences
x6.02 - Mary Poppins Returns
x6.01 - Avengers: Endgame [6 Weeks in Release]
x6.00 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire [8 Weeks in Release]

↑6x (Acceptable)
x5.83 - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes
x5.77 - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu [5 Weeks in Release]
x5.73 - The Grinch
x5.68 - 12 Suicidal Teens
x5.27 - Snow Flower
x5.18 - Aquaman

↑5x (Mediocre)
x4.83 - Captain Marvel
x4.81 - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends
x4.80 - Dragon Ball Super: Broly
x4.67 - The Confidence Man JP [3 Weeks in Release]
x4.65 - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion

↑4x (Poor)
x3.98 - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER
x3.40 - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel Part II - Lost Butterfly

↑3x (Awful)

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Tue Jun 04, 2019 6:51 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 2019 Weekend #1 Films
2019 - Weekend #1 Films

01/05-06: ¥335.8 million ($3.1 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK9
01/12-13: ¥490.5 million ($4.5 million) - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
01/19-20: ¥633.3 million ($5.8 million) - Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK1
01/26-27: ¥477.9 million ($4.4 million) - Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK2
02/02-03: ¥334.3 million ($3.0 million) - The Seven Conferences (Toho) WK1
02/09-10: ¥314.3 million ($2.8 million) - Aquaman (Warner Bros.) WK1
02/16-17: ¥195.9 million ($1.8 million) - Aquaman (Warner Bros.) WK2
02/23-24: ¥259.0 million ($2.3 million) - Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK1
03/02-03: ¥695.7 million ($6.2 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK1
03/09-10: ¥612.0 million ($5.5 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK2
03/16-17: ¥437.7 million ($3.9 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK3
03/23-24: ¥310.7 million ($2.8 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK4
03/30-31: ¥323.8 million ($2.9 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK5
04/06-07: ¥174.7 million ($1.6 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK6
04/13-14: ¥1.464 billion ($13.1 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK1
04/20-21: ¥886.1 million ($8.0 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK2
04/27-28: ¥962.0 million ($8.7 million) - Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK1
05/04-05: ¥587.1 million ($5.3 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK4
05/11-12: ¥315.9 million ($2.9 million) - Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK3
05/18-19: ¥385.6 million ($3.5 million) - The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK1
05/25-26: ¥351.0 million ($3.2 million) - The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK2
06/01-02: ¥676.9 million ($6.3 million) - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho) WK1


Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Last edited by Corpse on Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:18 am, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:09 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Grossing Films: 2019
2019 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥8.79 billion ($80.2 million) / 6.88 million [52] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho)
¥6.56 billion ($58.6 million) / 4.92 million [E] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.)
¥5.78 billion ($52.3 million) / 3.94 million [38] - Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
¥5.16 billion ($46.4 million) / 3.88 million [45] - Kingdom (Toho/Sony)

¥5 billion ↨
¥4.97 billion ($45.2 million) / 4.34 million [E] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho)
¥4.60 billion ($41.9 million) / 3.57 million [E] - Masquerade Hotel (Toho)
¥3.90 billion ($35.2 million) / 3.01 million [E] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥3.80 billion ($34.6 million) / 3.06 million [E] - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
¥3.69 billion ($33.4 million) / 2.86 million [E] - Tonde Saitama (Toei)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.64 billion ($24.1 million) / 1.85 million [31] - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho)
¥2.12 billion ($19.2 million) / 1.70 million [E] - The Seven Conferences (Toho)
¥2.06 billion ($18.7 million) / 1.41 million [E] - Captain Marvel (Disney)
¥2.04 billion ($18.4 million) / 1.62 million [E] - Green Book (Gaga)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.98 billion ($17.9 million) / 1.68 million [45] - Crayon Shin-chan: Hurricane Honeymoon, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho)
¥1.79 billion ($16.4 million) / 1.38 million [17] - The Confidence Man JP (Toho)
¥1.67 billion ($15.0 million) / 1.07 million [F] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
¥1.63 billion ($14.7 million) / 1.11 million [E] - Aquaman (Warner Bros.)
¥1.55 billion ($13.9 million) / 1.27 million [E] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei)
¥1.52 billion ($13.7 million) / 1.20 million [E] - 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.)
¥1.50 billion ($13.6 million) / 1.03 million [E] - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex)
¥1.43 billion ($13.0 million) / 1.07 million [E] - A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
¥1.34 billion ($12.0 million) / 1.05 million [E] - Fortuna's Eye (Toho)
¥1.27 billion ($11.5 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)
¥1.21 billion ($11.1 million) / 1.09 million [E] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.86 million [E] - Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
¥1.11 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.71 million [E] - Love Live! The School Idol Movie - Over the Rainbow (Shochiku)
¥1.06 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.83 million [E] - A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Shochiku)
¥1.05 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.84 million [E] - Snow Flower (Warner Bros.)
¥1.04 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.89 million [E] - You Shine in Moonlight (Toho)
¥1.01 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.70 million [E] - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Shochiku)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:51 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Opening Weekends: 2019
2019 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1.464 billion ($13.1 million) / 1,144,539 [403] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho)
¥1 billion ↨
¥962.0 million ($8.7 million) / 628,000 [806] - Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
¥812.7 million ($7.2 million) / 639,000 [467] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥695.7 million ($6.2 million) / 586,000 [382] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho)
¥676.9 million ($6.3 million) / 479,000 [431] - Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho)
¥633.3 million ($5.8 million) / 484,000 [349] - Masquerade Hotel (Toho)
¥526.0 million ($4.7 million) / 382,000 [388] - Kingdom (Toho/Sony)

¥500 million ↨
¥490.5 million ($4.5 million) / 276,795 [131] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
¥456.9 million ($4.1 million) / 317,000 [417] - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho)
¥453.6 million ($4.1 million) / 350,373 [468] - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
¥426.6 million ($3.8 million) / 279,000 [754] - Captain Marvel (Disney)
¥389.0 million ($3.5 million) / 313,000 [332] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei)
¥385.6 million ($3.5 million) / 284,000 [324] - The Confidence Man JP (Toho)
¥334.3 million ($3.0 million) / 260,000 [329] - The Seven Conferences (Toho)
¥314.3 million ($2.8 million) / 210,000 [692] - Aquaman (Warner Bros.)

¥300 million ↨
¥289.0 million ($2.6 million) / 242,000 [356] - Crayon Shin-chan: Hurricane Honeymoon, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho)
¥267.5 million ($2.4 million) / 206,636 [343] - 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.)
¥259.0 million ($2.3 million) / 191,000 [319] - Tonde Saitama (Toei)
¥257.1 million ($2.3 million) / 179,780 [251] - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex)
¥251.4 million ($2.2 million) / 222,930 [368] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥248.3 million ($2.2 million) / 221,579 [230] - Precure Miracle Universe (Toei)
¥247.6 million ($2.2 million) / 152,000 [880] - Alita: Battle Angel (Fox)
¥246.3 million ($2.2 million) / 194,000 [331] - Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films)
¥221.5 million ($2.0 million) / 180,000 [387] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)
¥217.2 million ($1.9 million) / 140,000 [120] - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Shochiku)
¥201.5 million ($1.8 million) / 154,000 [180] - Green Book (Gaga)

¥200 million ↨
¥199.2 million ($1.8 million) / 150,927 [326] - Snow Flowers (Warner Bros.)
¥188.4 million ($1.7 million) / 141,000 [302] - Fortuna's Eye (Toho)
¥186.2 million ($1.7 million) / 139,000 [654] - Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
¥185.5 million ($1.7 million) / 144,000 [598] - Dumbo (Disney)
¥185.0 million ($1.7 million) / 140,000 [396] - A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
¥172.5 million ($1.6 million) / 120,000 [724] - Bumblebee (Toho-Towa)
¥167.0 million ($1.5 million) / 115,000 [723] - Shazam! (Warner Bros.)
¥163.8 million ($1.5 million) / 118,000 [416] - Sadako (Kadokawa)
¥161.3 million ($1.4 million) / 142,046 [439] - The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney)
¥160.1 million ($1.4 million) / x98,074 [337] - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
¥152.4 million ($1.4 million) / 120,000 [207] - My Girlfriend is a Mage (Nikkei)
¥146.1 million ($1.3 million) / 116,000 [238] - The Mule (Warner Bros.)
¥142.6 million ($1.3 million) / 118,000 [299] - You Shine in Moonlight (Toho)
¥142.5 million ($1.3 million) / 112,000 [316] - Parallel Love Story (Shochiku)
¥137.0 million ($1.2 million) / 101,000 [331] - It Comes (Toho)
¥121.7 million ($1.1 million) / x86,286 [111] - Touken Ranbu: The Movie (Toho Video Division)
¥121.5 million ($1.1 million) / x88,000 [434] - First Man (Toho-Towa)
¥120.5 million ($1.0 million) / x89,919 [x89] - Mobile Suit Gundam NT (Shochiku)

¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Last edited by Corpse on Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:20 am, edited 2 times in total.



Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:51 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (6/01-02)
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Weekend Actuals (06/01-02)
01 (---) ¥676,955,000 ($6.3 million), 0, ¥918,860,100 ($8.5 million), Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥291,221,400 ($2.7 million), -17%, ¥1,796,582,800 ($16.4 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK3
03 (02) ¥148,651,000 ($1.4 million), -40%, ¥729,475,100 ($6.7 million), Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films) WK2
04 (---) ¥142,572,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥189,000,000 ($1.7 million), Parallel Love Story (Shochiku) NEW
05 (03) ¥136,961,700 ($1.3 million), -35%, ¥2,636,583,700 ($24.1 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK5
06 (05) ¥127,618,700 ($1.2 million), -17%, ¥5,160,666,400 ($46.4 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK7
07 (04) ¥x99,091,200 ($915,000), -39%, ¥431,838,500 ($4.0 million), Sadako (Kadokawa) WK2
08 (07) ¥x93,914,600 ($868,000), -29%, ¥8,785,031,300 ($80.2 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK8
09 (06) ¥x86,287,700 ($797,000), -42%, ¥5,779,458,600 ($52.3 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK6
10 (08) ¥x58,816,800 ($543,000), -27%, ¥231,342,300 ($2.2 million), Promare (Toho) WK2
11 (09) ¥x36,082,900 ($333,000), -13%, ¥1,978,810,800 ($17.9 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK7
12 (10) ¥x27,848,100 ($257,000), -30%, ¥266,442,000 ($2.4 million), According to Our Butler (Toei) WK3


>Godzilla: King of the Monsters roared some life back into the box-office, selling a very impressive 479,000 admissions over the weekend frame across 431 screens. It sold 641,773 admissions since opening on Friday. This debut is a significant 33% higher than its predecessor, and it's even 8% higher than 2016's Shin Godzilla.

I've read a lot of good things about how the film is much more of a "Godzilla" film than Hollywood's previous attempts, from Ifukube's original themes being used in the film to the kaiju designs being truer to their original characters. And Japanese audience scores seem to reflect this news as well, since it's averaging scores of 4/5 (80%) across most domestic movie sites. I still think they'll be some degree of frontloading, but the good reception could very well offset some of the initial demand. I expect it'll finish a bit above the ¥4 billion ($35-40 million) milestone, but let's see if it can go a bit higher.

>The Confidence Man JP holds strong once again, delivering a third weekend that would have been a satisfactory opening weekend. It's going to exceed ¥2.5 billion ($25 million), and if it can hold onto enough screens/showtimes in the coming weeks, which I believe it will given the holds and audience reception, it could even make a run at the ¥3 billion (~$30 million) milestone.

>Parallel Love Story debuts in third place, selling 112,000 admissions over the weekend on 316 screens. It sold 148,000 admissions since opening on Friday. Nothing to really say about this debut other than it being decent, and decent is fine for a film like this this time of year.

>Pokemon: Detective Pikachu continues to perform well, and is still on track to reach the ¥3 billion (~$30 million) milestone -- the standard milestone that the animated franchise has mostly settled around in recent years. And again, this may seem a bit disappointing in Japan, but it's a good result.

>Kingdom refuses to slow down even after weeks from the Golden Week holiday frame. It will surpass Death Note: The Last Name in just a couple of days, and then it'll outgross Rurouni Kenshin: Kyoto Inferno before the start of next weekend to become the highest-grossing live-action film based on a Weekly Shonen Jump manga series. It should finish around the ¥5.5 billion ($50 million) mark.

>Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire keeps adding to its likely Yearly Top 3/5 total in its eighth-weekend of release with another good hold. It will exceed the ¥9 billion ($82 million) milestone, but reaching last year's films' record-setting ¥9.18 billion total doesn't look guaranteed yet. Interestingly, it exceeded 6.88 million admissions (6,881,950) this weekend to become the most-attended film in the franchise, beating last year's films' 6.88 million admissions. So its audience does continue to grow year-over-year.

>Avengers: Endgame suffered from a pretty rough week, and its chances of reaching the ¥6 billion ($54/55 million) milestone isn't so certain anymore as a result. Now, it's broken and surpassed basically every record for a superhero film outside of the original Spider-Man trilogy, so reaching ¥6 billion isn't really necessary, but it would look nice.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Last edited by Corpse on Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:19 am, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Jun 03, 2019 7:51 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (06/01-02)
The Lion King isn't exactly an original film, so it likely won't become a breakout hit, much less a phenomenon. Most of the market's biggest films, or films with the leggiest or breakout performances, are original (though "original" is a bit of a loose term now) releases. That's why it's typically impossible to predict/project them. Seven of the top ten films of the last ten years are original films, and they're all ranked 1st-7th with the sequels taking the 8th-10th spots.

This isn't like predicting Frozen, Your Name., or any other phenomenon or breakout release.

The question becomes: Why would audiences want to spend their money, especially during the Summer box-office season with many options, on The Lion King?

1.) It's a Disney film, that's a plus. But not all Disney films find success.
2.) It's based on a Disney classic... but the original animated film wasn't a blockbuster in the market. It was the #5 film of the year (1994) it was released, which is good, but it's also outside of the Top 80 highest-grossing animated films in the market. It doesn't have the cultural/generational significance here.
3.) Disney live-action adaptions have been huge in Japan, just see Beauty and the Beast and Alice in Wonderland. Yes, those two films were uber-blockbusters, but they're also Disney Princess films that attracted females (females dominate the moviegoer audience in the market). So far, every non-Disney Princess live-action remake has disappointed.

Now, I'm not saying The Lion King will bomb or disappoint. It should do fine business, but there's really no reasons to expect a breakout. I also highly doubt it'll open at #1 though because it opens against the latest One Piece film, and Weathering With You could still be #1 if it connects. Opening at #2/3 would result in a lack of media attention, and possible early screen/showtime cuts.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Mon Jun 03, 2019 6:50 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (06/01-02)
Again all these are predictions. Sometimes you just never know. If you look at any juggernaut back in this thread, Corpse would have grossly underestimated its total potential even after OW. Its almost impossible to predict but you can guess the likely number based on similar movies previously.

Jut for fun look back the Frozen run. I doubt corpse got the total right even after 2 months :-)

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (06/01-02)
It is essentially animated but it's all still very life-like as it's part of Disney's live-action remakes, so that puts it firmly in the non-animated category from an audience perspective. Nothing creative can be achieved with its "animation".


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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (05/2
Corpse wrote:
Sure, but Zootopia was animated. It was also incredibly leggy (17x multiplier) due to its very strong reception. It had a somewhat disappointing opening.


The Lion King remake is also animated. :ninja:

But yeah, it's not getting that big of a multi.


Sun Jun 02, 2019 10:56 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (06/01-02)
Yes, it's still very likely, but it's not quite a guarantee which I believe to be the case last week. Fact is, it had a rough week, and it's possible that Aladdin next week causes it to narrowly miss.

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (06/01-02)
End game is close to 6B Yen. Will it reach that number?

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (6/01-02)
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Weekend Estimates (06/01-02)
01 (---) ¥650,000,000 ($6.0 million), 0, ¥900,000,000 ($8.3 million), Godzilla: King of the Monsters (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥305,000,000 ($2.8 million), -13%, ¥1,775,000,000 ($16.2 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK3
03 (02) ¥143,000,000 ($1.3 million), -42%, ¥700,000,000 ($6.4 million), Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films) WK2
04 (03) ¥142,000,000 ($1.3 million), -32%, ¥2,650,000,000 ($24.2 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK5
05 (---) ¥135,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), Parallel Love Story (Shochiku) NEW
06 (05) ¥128,000,000 ($1.2 million), -16%, ¥5,140,000,000 ($46.2 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK7
07 (04) ¥104,000,000 ($950,000), -37%, ¥425,000,000 ($3.9 million), Sadako (Kadokawa) WK2
08 (07) ¥x98,000,000 ($895,000), -26%, ¥8,790,000,000 ($80.2 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK8
09 (06) ¥x89,000,000 ($815,000), -40%, ¥5,775,000,000 ($52.3 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK6
10 (08) ¥x69,000,000 ($630,000), -13%, ¥250,000,000 ($2.3 million), Promare (Toho) WK2


I was pretty busy most of this past week, so I couldn't get around to posting the Weekend Forecast, but here are the Weekend Estimates!

This is a very good debut for Godzilla: King of the Monsters, and even if it might fall a bit with actuals (national discount days on a Saturday/Sunday can really drag the average ticket price down), this would be a very healthy 25-30% increase over its predecessors' debut. Granted, its opening weekend is slightly inflated due to Saturday being a national discount day, but it's still quite impressive regardless of the boost.

2014's film finished with ¥3.2 billion ($31.0 million), and the sequel should beat that even in the likely event of weaker legs. I'm predicting a total between ¥3.5-4.0 billion ($32-37 million), with a slight chance of reaching ¥4 billion.

Audience reception is noticeably stronger this time, too, it seems. I haven't watched it yet, but it seems to reference the actual Toho franchise more with this entry, from its soundtrack (which features Ifukube's themes), truer to the classic kaiju designs, and more of a focus on the monsters.

I'll have write-ups for the other films with the Weekend Actuals tomorrow.

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Sun Jun 02, 2019 1:22 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (05/2
Sure, but Zootopia was animated. It was also incredibly leggy (17x multiplier) due to its very strong reception. It had a somewhat disappointing opening.

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (05/2
Corpse wrote:
Umm... I don't know. The Disney live-action remakes are hit or miss in the market, and there's a massive gap between the two categories. They Disney Princess films don't just outgross the Disney Animal films, they blow them out of the water at the box-office.

Disney Princess Remakes:
¥12.40 billion ($109.7 million) - Beauty and the Beast
¥11.80 billion ($142.8 million) - Alice in Wonderland
¥6.54 billion ($63.5 million) - Maleficent
¥5.73 billion ($46.6 million) - Cinderella
¥2.78 billion ($26.3 million) - Alice Through the Looking Glass

Disney Animal Remakes:
¥2.43 billion ($21.5 million) - Christopher Robin
¥2.21 billion ($21.5 million) - The Jungle Book
Sub-¥1 billion* ($8/9 million) - Dumbo

*Dumbo might have barely crawled to ¥1 billion, but tracking ended far enough below the mark that it probably did miss it.

Aladdin opens in two weeks, so we'll see how that one does first. It's more in the Disney Princess category, but it's not a traditional Disney Princess film. Will Smith is a decent draw still and keeping the songs and musical numbers in the film will help it, so those are some positives. Overall, I'm feeling good about its chances of success in the market. It won't be Beauty and the Beast or Alice in Wonderland big, but maybe more of a Maleficent/Cinderella type of performance.

As for The Lion King... It's clearly in the Animal category, more so than any other Disney live-action remake, so that's a major negative against it based on the performances of past Disney live-action remakes. Is the remake still a musical? The most recent trailer has Timon and Pumbaa singing "The Lion Sleeps Tonight", but I haven't heard any of the actual classic songs/musical numbers yet. If the retains the songs/musical numbers, that'll help it a lot. If they're excluded, I wouldn't be surprised with a very disappointing (bomb territory) performance.


It does have the original songs. And didn't Zootopia make bank?


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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Godzilla Box-Office History
In case I forget to post it before the weekend, here's the Box-Office History for Godzilla franchise:

Godzilla Box-Office History:
# Of Films: 34 / Years Active: 1954-Present

Admissions:
12.55 million - Godzilla vs. King Kong (1962)
9.61 million - Godzilla (1954)
8.34 million - Godzilla Raids Again (1955)
7.20 million - Godzilla vs. Mothra (1964)
5.69 million - Shin Godzilla (2016)
5.41 million - Ghidorah, the Three-Headed Monster (1964)
5.13 million - Invasion of Astro-Monster (1965)
4.21 million - Godzilla vs. The Sea Monster (1966)
4.20 million - Godzilla vs. Mothra (1992)
4.00 million - Godzilla vs. Destoroyah (1995)
3.90 million - Godzilla (1998) *Hollywood*
3.80 million - Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla II (1993)
3.40 million - Godzilla vs. Space Godzilla (1994)
3.20 million - The Return of Godzilla (1984)
2.70 million - Godzilla vs. King Ghidorah (1991)
2.50 million - Destroy All Monsters (1968)
2.48 million - Son of Godzilla (1967)
2.40 million - Godzilla, Mothra and King Ghidorah: Giant Monsters All-Out Attack (2001)
2.23 million - Godzilla (2014) *Hollywood*
2.00 million - Godzlla vs. Biollante (1989)
2.00 million - Godzilla 2000 (1999)
1.78 million - Godzilla vs. Gigan (1972)
1.74 million - Godzilla vs. Hedorah (1971)
1.70 million - Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla III (2002)
1.48 million - All Monsters Attack (1969)
1.35 million - Godzilla vs. Megaguirus (2000)
1.33 million - Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla (1974)
1.20 million - Godzilla: Tokyo S.O.S (2003)
1.00 million - Godzilla: Final Wars (2004)
0.98 million - Godzilla vs. Megalon (1973)
0.97 million - Terror of Mechagodzilla (1975)


Note (1): This doesn't include the recent animated trilogy. Official admissions (or earnings) were never released since they didn't gross very much, but they sold under 500,000 admissions each, so they'd rank at the bottom of the list.
Note (2): Second Most-Attended Franchise in Japan after the Doraemon Franchise.

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Thu May 30, 2019 2:16 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (05/2
I don't think so. I still mostly think it'll have a similar performance as the 2014 film in the market. If it didn't include the many classic kaiju, I'd be predicting a decline, but they'll probably help keep it from dropping too much.

Friday pre-sales are pretty poor so far. It'll be more of an evening/night film, but even the busiest theaters aren't really seeing much in pre-sales for the day. That said, Friday's performance won't really tell us too much this week because Saturday is the 1st of the month (national discount day), so Friday will be deflated as a result. Still, nothing is indicating a breakout or anything of the sort. A big film would still have strong Friday ticket sales regardless.

And I wouldn't take Deadline as a credible source for the market either... Nothing against them, but they always seem to over-hype films based on Japanese material in the market. I remember they "heard" that Alita: Battle Angel was having big pre-sales a week before opening (I didn't even see any advance showings...), even saying people were seeing it twice..., and then suggested it was headed toward a big debut in the market. But that definitely didn't happen. It had a mediocre debut, followed by very poor legs that landed it in the bomb category. And that wasn't surprising. Anyone who follows the Japanese market will tell you that it's very rare for Hollywood adaptations of Japanese source material to succeed in the market.

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (05/2
"Japan, which was also the focus of WB’s promotion and where the movie is handled by Toho, is not expected to react with the typical disdain for U.S. remakes of its IP. Enthusiasm, we hear, is high and Toho has been pushing the hell out of it. The last Godzilla had its second-best showing in Japan with about a $30M final." Deadline

Has the situation for King of the Monsters in Japan changed at all?


Thu May 30, 2019 1:04 am
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (05/2
Umm... I don't know. The Disney live-action remakes are hit or miss in the market, and there's a massive gap between the two categories. They Disney Princess films don't just outgross the Disney Animal films, they blow them out of the water at the box-office.

Disney Princess Remakes:
¥12.40 billion ($109.7 million) - Beauty and the Beast
¥11.80 billion ($142.8 million) - Alice in Wonderland
¥6.54 billion ($63.5 million) - Maleficent
¥5.73 billion ($46.6 million) - Cinderella
¥2.78 billion ($26.3 million) - Alice Through the Looking Glass

Disney Animal Remakes:
¥2.43 billion ($21.5 million) - Christopher Robin
¥2.21 billion ($21.5 million) - The Jungle Book
Sub-¥1 billion* ($8/9 million) - Dumbo

*Dumbo might have barely crawled to ¥1 billion, but tracking ended far enough below the mark that it probably did miss it.

Aladdin opens in two weeks, so we'll see how that one does first. It's more in the Disney Princess category, but it's not a traditional Disney Princess film. Will Smith is a decent draw still and keeping the songs and musical numbers in the film will help it, so those are some positives. Overall, I'm feeling good about its chances of success in the market. It won't be Beauty and the Beast or Alice in Wonderland big, but maybe more of a Maleficent/Cinderella type of performance.

As for The Lion King... It's clearly in the Animal category, more so than any other Disney live-action remake, so that's a major negative against it based on the performances of past Disney live-action remakes. Is the remake still a musical? The most recent trailer has Timon and Pumbaa singing "The Lion Sleeps Tonight", but I haven't heard any of the actual classic songs/musical numbers yet. If the retains the songs/musical numbers, that'll help it a lot. If they're excluded, I wouldn't be surprised with a very disappointing (bomb territory) performance.

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals; Charts Updated! (05/2
How much do you think The Lion King will make?


Mon May 27, 2019 9:39 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: 2019 Weekend #1 Films
2019 - Weekend #1 Films

01/05-06: ¥335.8 million ($3.1 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (Fox) WK9
01/12-13: ¥490.5 million ($4.5 million) - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
01/19-20: ¥633.3 million ($5.8 million) - Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK1
01/26-27: ¥477.9 million ($4.4 million) - Masquerade Hotel (Toho) WK2
02/02-03: ¥334.3 million ($3.0 million) - The Seven Conferences (Toho) WK1
02/09-10: ¥314.3 million ($2.8 million) - Aquaman (Warner Bros.) WK1
02/16-17: ¥195.9 million ($1.8 million) - Aquaman (Warner Bros.) WK2
02/23-24: ¥259.0 million ($2.3 million) - Tonde Saitama (Toei) WK1
03/02-03: ¥695.7 million ($6.2 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK1
03/09-10: ¥612.0 million ($5.5 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK2
03/16-17: ¥437.7 million ($3.9 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK3
03/23-24: ¥310.7 million ($2.8 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK4
03/30-31: ¥323.8 million ($2.9 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK5
04/06-07: ¥174.7 million ($1.6 million) - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho) WK6
04/13-14: ¥1.464 billion ($13.1 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK1
04/20-21: ¥886.1 million ($8.0 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK2
04/27-28: ¥962.0 million ($8.7 million) - Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK1
05/04-05: ¥587.1 million ($5.3 million) - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK4
05/11-12: ¥315.9 million ($2.9 million) - Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK3
05/18-19: ¥385.6 million ($3.5 million) - The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK1
05/25-26: ¥351.0 million ($3.2 million) - The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK2


Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

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Mon May 27, 2019 7:32 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Grossing Films: 2019
2019 - Top Grossing Films
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days In Release] - Film (Distributor)

¥10 billion ↨
¥8.58 billion ($78.2 million) / 6.71 million [45] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho)
¥6.56 billion ($58.6 million) / 4.92 million [E] - Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald (Warner Bros.)
¥5.56 billion ($50.4 million) / 3.79 million [31] - Avengers: Endgame (Disney)

¥5 billion ↨
¥4.97 billion ($45.2 million) / 4.34 million [87] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho)
¥4.87 billion ($43.7 million) / 3.66 million [38] - Kingdom (Toho/Sony)
¥4.60 billion ($41.9 million) / 3.57 million [E] - Masquerade Hotel (Toho)
¥3.90 billion ($35.2 million) / 3.01 million [E] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥3.80 billion ($34.6 million) / 3.06 million [E] - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
¥3.69 billion ($33.4 million) / 2.86 million [E] - Tonde Saitama (Toei)

¥3 billion ↨
¥2.36 billion ($21.5 million) / 1.64 million [24] - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho)
¥2.12 billion ($19.2 million) / 1.70 million [E] - The Seven Conferences (Toho)
¥2.06 billion ($18.7 million) / 1.41 million [E] - Captain Marvel (Disney)
¥2.04 billion ($18.4 million) / 1.62 million [E] - Green Book (Gaga)

¥2 billion ↨
¥1.92 billion ($17.3 million) / 1.63 million [38] - Crayon Shin-chan: Hurricane Honeymoon, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho)
¥1.67 billion ($15.0 million) / 1.07 million [F] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
¥1.63 billion ($14.7 million) / 1.11 million [E] - Aquaman (Warner Bros.)
¥1.55 billion ($13.9 million) / 1.27 million [E] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei)
¥1.52 billion ($13.7 million) / 1.20 million [E] - 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.)
¥1.50 billion ($13.6 million) / 1.03 million [E] - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex)
¥1.43 billion ($13.0 million) / 1.07 million [E] - A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
¥1.34 billion ($12.0 million) / 1.05 million [E] - Fortuna's Eye (Toho)
¥1.27 billion ($11.5 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)
¥1.21 billion ($11.1 million) / 1.09 million [E] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥1.21 billion ($11.0 million) / 0.91 million [10] - The Confidence Man JP (Toho)
¥1.12 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.86 million [E] - Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
¥1.11 billion ($10.0 million) / 0.71 million [E] - Love Live! The School Idol Movie - Over the Rainbow (Shochiku)
¥1.06 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.83 million [E] - A Banana? At This Time of Night? (Shochiku)
¥1.05 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.84 million [E] - Snow Flower (Warner Bros.)
¥1.04 billion ($9.4 million) / 0.89 million [E] - You Shine in Moonlight (Toho)
¥1.01 billion ($9.1 million) / 0.70 million [E] - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Shochiku)

¥1 billion ↑

Legend:
¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Top Opening Weekends: 2019
2019 - Top Opening Weekends
Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)

¥1.464 billion ($13.1 million) / 1,144,539 [403] - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho)
¥1 billion ↨
¥962.0 million ($8.7 million) / 628,000 [806] - Avengers: Endgame (Disney)
¥812.7 million ($7.2 million) / 639,000 [467] - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (Toei)
¥695.7 million ($6.2 million) / 586,000 [382] - Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of Moon Exploration (Toho)
¥633.3 million ($5.8 million) / 484,000 [349] - Masquerade Hotel (Toho)
¥526.0 million ($4.7 million) / 382,000 [388] - Kingdom (Toho/Sony)

¥500 million ↨
¥490.5 million ($4.5 million) / 276,795 [131] - Fate/stay night: Heaven's Feel II - Lost Butterfly (Aniplex)
¥456.9 million ($4.1 million) / 317,000 [417] - Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho)
¥453.6 million ($4.1 million) / 350,373 [468] - Ralph Breaks the Internet (Disney)
¥426.6 million ($3.8 million) / 279,000 [754] - Captain Marvel (Disney)
¥389.0 million ($3.5 million) / 313,000 [332] - Kamen Rider Heisei Generations FOREVER (Toei)
¥385.6 million ($3.5 million) / 284,000 [324] - The Confidence Man JP (Toho)
¥334.3 million ($3.0 million) / 260,000 [329] - The Seven Conferences (Toho)
¥314.3 million ($2.8 million) / 210,000 [692] - Aquaman (Warner Bros.)

¥300 million ↨
¥289.0 million ($2.6 million) / 242,000 [356] - Crayon Shin-chan: Hurricane Honeymoon, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho)
¥267.5 million ($2.4 million) / 206,636 [343] - 12 Suicidal Teens (Warner Bros.)
¥259.0 million ($2.3 million) / 191,000 [319] - Tonde Saitama (Toei)
¥257.1 million ($2.3 million) / 179,780 [251] - City Hunter: Shinjuku Private Eyes (Aniplex)
¥251.4 million ($2.2 million) / 222,930 [368] - Yo-Kai Watch: Forever Friends (Toho)
¥248.3 million ($2.2 million) / 221,579 [230] - Precure Miracle Universe (Toei)
¥247.6 million ($2.2 million) / 152,000 [880] - Alita: Battle Angel (Fox)
¥246.0 million ($2.2 million) / 194,000 [331] - Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films)
¥221.5 million ($2.0 million) / 180,000 [387] - The Grinch (Toho-Towa)
¥217.2 million ($1.9 million) / 140,000 [120] - Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion (Shochiku)
¥201.5 million ($1.8 million) / 154,000 [180] - Green Book (Gaga)

¥200 million ↨
¥199.2 million ($1.8 million) / 150,927 [326] - Snow Flowers (Warner Bros.)
¥188.4 million ($1.7 million) / 141,000 [302] - Fortuna's Eye (Toho)
¥186.2 million ($1.7 million) / 139,000 [654] - Mary Poppins Returns (Disney)
¥185.5 million ($1.7 million) / 144,000 [598] - Dumbo (Disney)
¥185.0 million ($1.7 million) / 140,000 [396] - A Star is Born (Warner Bros.)
¥172.5 million ($1.6 million) / 120,000 [724] - Bumblebee (Toho-Towa)
¥167.0 million ($1.5 million) / 115,000 [723] - Shazam! (Warner Bros.)
¥164.0 million ($1.5 million) / 118,000 [416] - Sadako (Kadokawa)
¥161.3 million ($1.4 million) / 142,046 [439] - The Nutcracker and the Four Realms (Disney)
¥160.1 million ($1.4 million) / x98,074 [337] - Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony)
¥152.4 million ($1.4 million) / 120,000 [207] - My Girlfriend is a Mage (Nikkei)
¥146.1 million ($1.3 million) / 116,000 [238] - The Mule (Warner Bros.)
¥142.6 million ($1.3 million) / 118,000 [299] - You Shine in Moonlight (Toho)
¥137.0 million ($1.2 million) / 101,000 [331] - It Comes (Toho)
¥121.7 million ($1.1 million) / x86,286 [111] - Touken Ranbu: The Movie (Toho Video Division)
¥121.5 million ($1.1 million) / x88,000 [434] - First Man (Toho-Towa)
¥120.5 million ($1.0 million) / x89,919 [x89] - Mobile Suit Gundam NT (Shochiku)

¥100 million ↑

Legend:
¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

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Mon May 27, 2019 7:23 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Actuals (05/25-26)
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Weekend Actuals (05/25-26)
01 (01) ¥351,000,600 ($3.2 million), -09%, ¥1,205,906,900 ($11.0 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥246,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥332,068,500 ($3.0 million), Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films) NEW
03 (02) ¥211,320,400 ($1.9 million), -23%, ¥2,355,500,500 ($21.5 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK4
04 (---) ¥164,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥209,706,700 ($1.9 million), Sadako (Kadokawa) NEW
05 (04) ¥153,219,800 ($1.4 million), -26%, ¥4,870,528,100 ($43.7 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK6
06 (03) ¥147,715,900 ($1.3 million), -30%, ¥5,564,046,500 ($50.4 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK5
07 (05) ¥132,052,500 ($1.2 million), -30%, ¥8,575,715,400 ($78.2 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK7
08 (---) ¥x65,000,000 ($590,000), 0, ¥x97,519,600 ($889,000), Promare (Toho) NEW
09 (08) ¥x41,416,700 ($378,000), -42%, ¥1,916,583,400 ($17.3 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK6
10 (06) ¥x40,074,100 ($365,000), -57%, ¥208,582,200 ($1.9 million), According to Our Butler (Toei) WK2
11 (07) ¥x34,148,600 ($311,000), -60%, ¥260,074,600 ($2.4 million), Iwane: Sword of Serenity (Shochiku) WK2


>The Confidence Man JP easily held onto the #1 spot in its second weekend of release, and delivered an excellent 9% hold in the process. I expect good/great holds for most of its run, and it should end up finishing above the ¥2.5 billion ($25 million) mark. This would be a particularly good result for a film that opened just two weeks after a major holiday period.

>Aircraft Carrier Ibuki comes in second place, and didn't disappoint with a solid 194,000 admissions sold over the weekend frame across 331 screens. It reached 265,070 admissions since opening on Friday. This is a solid debut, but it's a very impressive debut for independent distributor Kino Films. It should finish around ¥1.5 billion ($15 million).

>Pokemon: Detective Pikachu slips to third place in its fourth-weekend of release, delivering yet another good weekend hold -- the second best in the Top 10. The film's trajectory remains unchanged, and it should finish just above the ¥3 billion ($30 million) milestone.

>Sadako makes a surprising debut in fourth place, selling 118,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 416 screens. It reached 152,023 admissions since opening on Friday. Its average ticket price came in much higher than I was expecting. I don't have an opening list of the many Sadako (Grudge) films, but this opening is likely in the middle of pack. Legs can be kind of unpredictable for the horror genre, but a total of ¥1 billion ($10 million) is doable.

>Kingdom rounded out the Top 5 by edging ahead of Endgame this weekend (the two films have been neck-and-neck for the past few weeks), earning itself a good hold in its sixth-weekend of release. Unless it experiences an unexpected drop next week, it's likely to outgross Death Note: The Last Name (¥5.2 billion) and then Rurouni Kenshin: Kyoto Inferno (¥5.22 billion) to become the highest-grossing live-action film adapted from a Weekly Shonen manga series.

>Avengers: Endgame gets bumped out of the Top 5, but it's still performing well, and holding noticeably better than most superhero films. Its chances of reaching the ¥6 billion milestone was 50/50 at best just last week, but this weekend's hold should nearly lock the milestone up. I expect it'll finish at ¥6.1/6.2 billion ($55/56 million).

>Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire continues its excellent run in its seventh-weekend of release, and is keeping a strong ¥1 billion lead over last year's franchise record-setting release. It's very likely to exceed the ¥9 billion milestone now, and while its impressive lead over last year's film will begin to shrink very soon, I do believe it'll stay ahead of it and set a new franchise record. I expect it'll end up grossing around ¥9.2/9.3 billion ($84/85 million).

>Promare's weekend figure remains an estimate, but its three-day total is the actual. It sold 64,975 admissions since opening on Friday across 200 screens.

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Mon May 27, 2019 7:23 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Estimates (05/25-26)
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Weekend Estimates (05/25-26)
01 (01) ¥347,000,000 ($3.2 million), -10%, ¥1,155,000,000 ($10.6 million), The Confidence Man JP (Toho) WK2
02 (---) ¥220,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥295,000,000 ($2.7 million), Aircraft Carrier Ibuki (Kino Films) NEW
03 (02) ¥206,000,000 ($1.9 million), -25%, ¥2,365,000,000 ($21.6 million), Pokemon: Detective Pikachu (Toho) WK4
04 (04) ¥152,000,000 ($1.4 million), -27%, ¥4,840,000,000 ($43.4 million), Kingdom (Toho/Sony) WK6
05 (03) ¥148,000,000 ($1.3 million), -30%, ¥5,550,000,000 ($50.3 million), Avengers: Endgame (Disney) WK5
06 (---) ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.6 million), Sadako (Kadokawa) NEW
07 (05) ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), -31%, ¥8,560,000,000 ($78.1 million), Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Toho) WK7
08 (---) ¥x60,000,000 ($550,000), 0, ¥x90,000,000 ($820,000), Promare (Toho) NEW
09 (06) ¥x40,000,000 ($365,000), -57%, ¥225,000,000 ($2.1 million), According to Our Butler (Toei) WK2
10 (08) ¥x39,000,000 ($355,000), -46%, ¥1,915,000,000 ($17.3 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane, The Lost Hiroshi (Toho) WK6


Everything mostly performed as expected this weekend. The Confidence Man JP held even better than early weekend numbers suggested though, delivering an excellent second weekend hold that easily allowed it to secure its second weekend atop the box-office. Sadako has the admissions to have earned a debut in the Top 5 (fourth or fifth) but this one isn't showing in any premium formats, so I expect its average ticket price to be relatively low. I think it'll just miss the Top 5 in revenue.

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sun May 26, 2019 7:06 pm
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