What is the average drop Frozen 2 needs to have in this week (after 2 very inflated holiday weeks) to keep the 15B yen still on the table?

Frozen II isn't guaranteed to beat Weathering With You. It's going to be close, but I still believe it has the slight edge. And nothing on paper will beat Frozen II in 2020.

As for potential ¥10 billion earners, they look scarce. 2020 will probably go back to normal levels of ¥10 billion earners, having two or maybe three if it's lucky. Here are some contenders:

Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet. It's probably the top contender. The franchise has grown year-on-year since 2013, with the last two films earning ¥9.37 billion and ¥9.18 billion, respectively, so they're already approaching ¥10 billion.

Mulan. Just because it's a live-action Disney remake. But interest doesn't appear too high at the moment. And it's actually opening against Detective Conan, so it's already going to be regulated to the second or third biggest screens since Conan will occupy all of the biggest screens, probably nationwide. April 17th is a good date though, being just two weeks out from Golden Week, so it could be leggy. I'd rule it out personally, but we'll see.

Top Gun: Maverick. Tom Cruise remains the biggest Hollywood draw in the market, and his films continue to do very well here. The first film earned ¥6.7 billion and was the #1 film of 1987. I don't think the sequel will reach ¥10 billion, but it's a solid contender as it appears like it'll be great.

West Side Story. Spielberg isn't the draw that he once was, but his name still carries weight and musicals are popular in the market--sometimes very popular. I don't know how well known the musical is in Japan, but it's certainly a well-known musical in general and in name, so it could certainly breakout if it's good. A long shot, sure, but when musicals connect, they really connect.

Evangelion 3.0+1.0. The long-awaited final film of the series is finally getting released in June. This one is very unlikely, but seeing as this will very likely be the final, final Evangelion film, it's likely to do very well. 3.0 grossed ¥5.3 billion, so 3.0+1.0 would need a significant increase to reach ¥10 billion. Again, it's very unlikely, but don't rule it out completely.

Rurouni Kenshin: The Final. This is a two-part film, with the first part (Final) opening on July 3rd, and the second part (Beginning) opening on August 7th. While it's very, very doubtful either will approach ¥10 billion, the trilogy of films that preceded it performed well (the second one grossing a bit over ¥5 billion) and were well-received. Like Evangelion, it would require a significant jump, but don't entirely rule one of them out with that "finale" factor. Both parts have great release dates.

Monster Hunter. Okay, so here me out. This film will probably get ripped to shreds by Japanese audiences (they hate Hollywood adaptations of their material), and has a good chance of bombing. That said... Toho is distributing it in Japan, which will help with the marketing and such. And Monster Hunter is a massively successful video game franchise in the market. And it stars Milla Jovovich. As strange as it may sound, Jovovich is a draw in Japan (and is popular outside of films, too). Not a name that produces blockbuster after blockbuster, but her films generally perform well and Japan is almost always the #1 international market for her releases. So... it does have a lot of positives in its favor, but I'd be shocked if it came even half-way to reaching ¥10 billion (even half-of-half would be surprising).

And finally, I'll go ahead and mention Hayao Miyazaki's How Do You Live?. It was supposed to be finished in time for a July 2020 release, for the Summer Olympics, but 2021 is the new projected release year. But, just in case they pull a fast one on everybody and announce it for this year again, I thought I'd list it since it'd obviously be a ¥10 billion contender, a likely guarantee.

And here are a few more films that should be among the bigger releases of 2020, but would need a miracle to reach ¥10 billion:

>All the Disney or Pixar animated films: Onward, Soul, Raya and the Last Dragon
>Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba the Movie: Mugen Train
>The Confidence Man JP: Princess
>Minions 2
>Stand By Me, Doraemon 2
>Kyou kara ore wa!
>Godzilla vs. King Kong

There are probably a few more not listed here. (I haven't gone in-depth yet looking at 2020 releases). And a lot of Japanese films, in particular, aren't announced or receive release dates until a few months before the debut. July is still a kind of empty, so I'd expect some big future unannounced film to go there. And as always, there could be a surprise breakout that no one is expecting yet.

2020 will be interesting to follow, and a lot of that has to do with the Summer Olympics.

Has your projection changed at all after this weekend for Frozen 2? It still seems to me that beating Weathering With You will be a bit challenging.

And since Frozen 2 will be considered a 2020 release, are there any other films this year which could come close to it? Or even just cross ¥10 billion?

Biggest Seventh Weekends/Seven Week Totals (2001-):

¥785.0 million ($6.5 million), -14%, ¥17.13 billion ($150.8 million) - Spirited Away (2001)
¥772.1 million ($7.6 million), -07%, ¥12.10 billion ($118.4 million) - Frozen (2014)
¥767.4 million ($5.7 million), -22%, ¥15.91 billion ($120.6 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
¥731.9 million ($6.1 million), +13%, ¥13.61 billion ($114.1 million) - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
¥703.8 million ($6.9 million), +13%, ¥12.88 billion ($125.8 million) - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
¥700.9 million ($6.8 million), -11%, ¥14.21 billion ($138.5 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥571.5 million ($6.2 million), -16%, ¥9.64 billion ($106.3 million) - Avatar (2009)
¥543.9 million ($4.5 million), -10%, ¥13.51 billion ($115.5 million) - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
¥513.2 million ($4.8 million), -11%, ¥12.73 billion ($118.1 million) - Ponyo (2008)
¥464.0 million ($4.3 million), -13%, ¥11.22 billion ($102.9 million) - Frozen II (2019) *Estimate*
¥416.6 million ($3.9 million), -01%, ¥11.66 billion ($108.3 million) - Weathering With You (2019)
¥411.2 million ($3.9 million), -32%, ¥9.16 billion ($86.4 million) - The Last Samurai (2003)
¥389.0 million ($3.5 million), -10%, ¥6.44 billion ($57.0 million) - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
¥350.6 million ($3.2 million), -20%, ¥6.03 billion ($56.0 million) - Zootopia (2016)
¥348.8 million ($3.1 million), -40%, ¥9.55 billion ($83.4 million) - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
¥338.9 million ($3.5 million), +06%, ¥8.85 billion ($90.7 million) - The Wind Rises (2013)
¥334.0 million ($3.3 million), -11%, ¥6.67 billion ($64.5 million) - The Eternal Zero (2013)
¥317.8 million ($2.4 million), -30%, ¥7.43 billion ($56.5 million) - Monsters, Inc. (2002)
¥310.6 million ($2.9 million), -42%, ¥9.57 billion ($90.3 million) - Finding Nemo (2003)
¥306.7 million ($2.6 million), -12%, ¥7.57 billion ($64.5 million) - Big Hero 6 (2014)
¥306.1 million ($2.7 million), -12%, ¥10.38 billion ($91.9 million) - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
¥302.3 million ($2.7 million), -17%, ¥6.14 billion ($57.3 million) - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)

Frozen II's seventh weekend is an estimate OF an estimate (last week's actuals haven't been released yet due to the holidays), so it could change slightly more than normal when updated.

Sunday was down a good deal, unsurprisingly, due to work/school resuming on Monday.

I'll have the Sunday estimates up soon.

And Frozen II may have reclaimed the top spot in its seventh weekend, dethroning Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. It certainly came out on top over the weekend in admissions, but it's going to be very close in revenue.

Fastest to ¥5 billion (Blockbuster Milestone) - Four Weeks or Less:

10 - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
11 - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
12 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
13 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
13 - Spirited Away (2001)
14 - Weathering With You (2019)
14 - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
14 - Your Name. (2016)
14 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
14 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
14 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
15 - Jurassic World (2015)
15 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
15 - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
15 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
16 or 17 - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019) *Pending Actuals*
16 - Frozen II (2019)
16 - Toy Story 4 (2019)
16 - Aladdin (2019)
16 - Ponyo (2008)
16 - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (2007)
16 - The Da Vinci Code (2006)
16 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
17 - Code Blue (2018)
17 - Frozen (2014)
17 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (2011)
17 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)
17 - Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith (2005)
18 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019)
18 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018)
18 - Rookies (2009)
18 - Spider-Man 3 (2007)
18 - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
19 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
20 - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)
21 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018)
21 - The Wind Rises (2013)
21 - One Piece Film Z (2012)
21 - Hero (2007)
22 - Avengers: Endgame (2019)
22 - Avatar (2009)
22 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
22 - Finding Nemo (2003)
22 - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (2003)
22 - Star Wars: Episode II - Attack of the Clones (2002)
23 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017)
23 - Big Hero 6 (2014)
23 - Arrietty (2010)
24 - Toy Story 3 (2010)
24 - The Last Samurai (2003)

Note: Not enough data for films released before 2000 to be included on this list, primarily including: Titanic, Princess Mononoke, Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace, Armageddon, Jurassic Park, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, and Antarctica -- all of which likely exceeded ¥5 billion before 24 days (4 weeks) in release.

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker either exceed the ¥5 billion milestone on Saturday, its 16th-day in release; or will on Sunday, its 17th-day in release. This is impressive, but it's been supported by the holiday frame almost from the beginning of its run, so it's quite inflated. Its total won't be anywhere close to the other films that achieved this milestone in the same, or similar, amount of time.

Thank you, Bluebomb.

LPLC: Frozen II should be right around Aladdin's total after next Sunday. That following Monday, January 13th, is a national holiday (Coming of Age Day), so if it's shy come next Sunday, it'll likely surpass it on Monday. It'll then surpass Beauty and the Beast (2017) a week (probably less) after that to become Disney's second biggest film in the market, after the original.

And yes, Frozen's performance was something else--that's why I named it as one of my two most impressive performances ever in the market. There are many records and achievements to list, but one I don't mention too often is how it performance compared to other Disney films. It grossed 5.2x more than Disney's previous highest grossing animated film (Dinosaur), and 2.16x more than Disney's previous highest grossing overall film (Alice in Wonderland). Its total remains more than 2x higher than any other Disney film to this day, Star Wars, Pixar, and Marvel releases included.

I watch the thread during 2014 box office and the run of Frozen was really incredible, we will never see that again, this movie just didn't want to decrease, and your first prediction, Corpse, earlier in 2014 were $30M-$40M for frozen but who could imagine that run and that love from Japanese people for Frozen ...

Popped in to wish you a Happy New Year, Corpse!

Your thread is still the gold standard for any thread here at KJ. Amazing work.

Could Frozen 2 beat Aladdin by next Sunday ?

Very strong New Year Week this year. New Year Day (Wednesday) itself was a bit weaker than expected, but the following Bank Holidays (Thursday and Friday) made up for that. And due to the strength of the dailies from Wednesday through Friday, I'm not expecting many increases this weekend, and if there are any, they should be pretty small.

A short analysis for some films:

>Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker performed very well this week, and should end up outgrossing The Last Jedi. It should be around ¥5.3/5.4 billion ($49/50 million) after Sunday, and I'm expecting a finish around ¥8 billion ($75 million).

>Frozen II did what it needed this week to keep the ¥15 billion ($140 million) milestone in play (in play, not locked). It should be around ¥11.2/11.3 billion ($103/104 million) after Sunday. Its weekdays will become noticeably weaker soon, but I'd be surprised if it collapses over the weekends.

>Welcome Back, Tora-san! performed strongly over the weekdays, unsurprisingly given its older audience, and came close to earning 3x its opening weekend these past five days. I didn't speak about it last weekend, but this is the 50th film in the Otoko wa Tsurai yo franchise (the third most attended franchise in the market with over 81 million admissions now), and the first entry in the series since 1995. Yoji Yamada, now 88, returned as director. Welcome Back, Tora-san celebrates his 86th theatrical release since his first film back in 1961, 59-years ago.

That requires a long answer:

Japanese audiences aren't big moviegoers, despite it being the second biggest overseas market. The average person only sees 1 or 2 films in theaters a year.

Other forms of entertainment related to film and TV also remain popular

>TV broadcasts are still big in the market. It's pretty common for a TV show to still earn over a 10% rating, and 20% or more is still achievable for the more popular shows. And movies, popular ones in particular, can still reach the same ratings when they're broadcast.

>Movie rentals also remain popular in the market, especially compared to most of the world. There are still daily/weekly charts released on the most popular movie rentals, and while I don't have data available at the moment, they were (perhaps still are) preferred over buying on home video.

But the biggest reason audiences aren't quick to rush to the theaters as soon as a film opens is their notoriously intense work and study ethic:

>Work and school take priority over basically everything. Many companies require workers to put in 80-100 hours of overtime each month (100 hours is the labor law limit). A lot of people sleep in their offices or workplaces, and they almost never take time off and simply let any paid leave hours go to waste for fear of looking bad. In Japan, the more time you put into your job is more important than your actual productivity or ability, and promotions and such are determined by this. It's very stressful for a lot of people, and why Japan has a high suicide rate. And don't think about changing careers once you've gotten one. If you do, you'll start all over at the bottom of the ladder with lesser pay and have to work your way up again, even if your ability exceeds others.

And school isn't much different, really. Students must begin studying hard in their early teens since getting into a good High School (yes, just High School) requires top marks on an entrance exam. And since the Japanese workplace is so competitive, one isn't likely to find a great job or career if they fail to get into a good High School. And, of course, the process begins again to get from a good High School to a good University.

Have you seen images of many Japanese always wearing face masks when out and about? This is because they almost literally cannot chance getting sick, and risk disrupting their work or study schedules.

The Japanese government have come a long way to help reduce work and study hours with the introduction of new holidays, and making it mandatory to use some vacation time/paid leave, but it's still a market where work and schooling is #1 priority. Going to the movies can wait a month or two.

$2,65M today for frozen 2, what are you expecting for the week end ?

Corpse I have a question, why Japanese market is a leggy market why Japanese people decide to see a movie for example 2 months after her release ? Because I don't understand it is the only one market which there can be little decrease or increase week to week and it's rare that there is big drops or normal drops like in other countries around the world like France, US, Brazil or South Korea ...

Happy New Year to everyone on this thread!!

As always awesome thread Corpse with amazing statistics. This is the best maintained thread in the whole forum without a doubt. Thanks for all your efforts. Let's continue this into the new decade

Awesome stats. You definitely have the best thread devoted to a single market that I've seen!

Thanks for the wealth of data you provide here!

You're probably already going to fix this, but Frozen needs to be updated to ¥25.50 billion on the 2014 Box Office Data list.

Happy New Year! A day late, but better late than never.

As usual -- thanks to everyone who reads this thread, especially those of you that contribute with discussions here. And special thanks to all the lurkers who decided to join the forum over the past year. Due to the participation of new members and ongoing discussions had by the regulars here, this was quite a year for this thread and an amazing way to close out the decade, and ten years I've been doing this.

Since January 1st last year, there have been 73 new pages consisting of 1,823 new posts. That makes 2019 the most active year for this thread (fitting since 2019 is set to become the biggest year ever for the Japan box-office as well), but the most shocking statistic was how many views the thread saw over the past year: Regulars, new members, and lurkers alike brought in a whopping 628,000 additional views. That's significantly higher than any previous year, and was actually enough to account for 34% of the thread's overall view count.

I'm thankful for the traffic, as I still enjoy following the Japan box-office, and it gives the forum as a whole more attention.

I'll be revamping the FIRST POST of this thread early this year, probably by the end of January. It's been long overdue, often requested, so expect an update soon.


2019 Box Office (Pages 437-510; 73 Pages, 1,823 Posts)
2019 Box Office Data: Coming Late-January

2018 Box Office (Pages 381-437; 56 Pages, 1,383 Posts)
2018 Box Office Data:

2017 Box Office (Pages 333-381; 48 Pages, 1,207 Posts)
2017 Box Office Data:

2016 Box Office (Pages 282-333; 51 Pages, 1,276 Posts)
2016 Box Office Data:

2015 Box Office (Pages 223-282; 59 Pages, 1,466 Posts)
2015 Box Office Data:

2014 Box Office (Pages 171-223; 52 Pages, 1,319 Posts)
2014 Box Office Data:

2013 Box Office (Pages 131-171; 40 Pages, 986 Posts)
2013 Box Office Data:

2012 Box Office (Pages 94-131; 37 Pages, 938 Posts)
2012 Box Office Data:

2011 Box Office (Pages 58-94; 36 Pages, 901 Posts)
2011 Box Office Data:

2010 Box Office (Pages 05-58; 53 Pages, 1,325 Posts)
2010 Box Office Data:

I was looking into this last night and earlier today. It does seem to becoming a more common trend where New Year's Day business is being spread out more evenly among the other days. Early admissions for Thursday are roughly on par with yesterday so far too, and will probably deliver similar numbers.

And Mondays in general have also grown stronger in recent years, and have begun to rival Wednesdays. In fact, Monday was bigger than Wednesday several times this past year, and as you mentioned, that was the case this week too. I'm gong to keep a closer eye on this this new year.

It's more like $2.0/$2.1 million yesterday. Remember that the % increase is compared to the same day last week (in admissions), not the prior day. It's going to be at $98/99 million going into the weekend, so $105 million or so after Sunday is still the target.

I'll have Wednesday Estimates up in a bit.

Today $1,6M for frozen 2 ( I predicted $3.5M I was far ...), so $98M-$99M by 5th January I guess