Biggest April Opening Weekends (1998-)

01. ¥1.316 billion ($14.0 million) / 828,149 [859] - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
02. ¥880.0 million ($7.4 million) / 700,000 [658] - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (2015) *Est.*
03. ¥860.0 million ($7.2 million) / 700,000 [349] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (2015) *Est.*
04. ¥789.3 million ($7.8 million) / 649,865 [341] - Detective Conan: Dimensional Sniper (2014)
05. ¥671.9 million ($6.8 million) / 531,987 [729] - Red Cliff Part II (2009)
06. ¥671.5 million ($6.9 million) / 565,914 [344] - Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (2013)
07. ¥629.7 million ($7.7 million) / 540,975 [351] - Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (2012)
08. ¥593.2 million ($6.0 million) / 501,700 [341] - Detective Conan: The Raven Chaser (2009)
09. ¥570.7 million ($5.8 million) / 420,958 [314] - Crowz Zero II (2009)
10. ¥563.1 million ($6.0 million) / 437,613 [410] - Nodable Cantabile: The Final Score (Part 2) (2010)
11. ¥561.9 million ($6.0 million) / 431,527 [352] - Detective Conan: The Lost Ship in the Sky (2010)
12. ¥551.6 million ($6.6 million) / 423,675 [375] - Gantz: Perfect Answer (2011)
13. ¥550.1 million ($6.5 million) / 453,619 [332] - Detective Conan: Quarter of Silence (2011)
14. ¥543.5 million ($4.7 million) / 449,917 [293] - Detective Conan: The Private Eyes' Requiem (2005)
15. ¥520.0 million ($4.4 million) / 385,000 [???] - Furious 7 (2015) *Est.*
16. ¥504.1 million ($4.6 million) / 394,231 [435] - The Haunted Mansion (2004)
¥500 million+

Detective Conan is very likely to hit the milestone, and may reach ¥4.5 billion. None of the films have received multipliers under 5, so actuals will need to come in much lower than estimates and legs will need to be some of the worst in the franchise to miss ¥4 billion.

Dragon Ball Z should also get there, but there is a slight chance that it could miss ¥4 billion, stalling out after it crosses ¥3.5 billion. The last film was pretty frontloaded (a 4.37 multiplier is pretty weak), and this one has some mixed reviews, but more importantly there are the freebies going out to the first 1.5 million attendees. That'll cause some additional frontloading, however, it has the upcoming Golden Week frame to help support it unlike the last release.

Most of this discussion depends on what the actual opening weekends are for each film, though, so let's wait and see.

Biggest All-Time Weekends (Top 10 Films) [1998-]

01. ¥3.601 billion - 07/09-10/2005 (#1 Film - Star Wars Episosde III: Revenge of the Sith)
02. ¥3.427 billion - 05/03-04/2014 (#1 Film - Frozen)
03. ¥3.423 billion - 07/19-20/2003 (#1 Film - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge!)
04. ¥3.329 billion - 07/21-22/2007 (#1 Film - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix)
05. ¥3.314 billion - 07/22-23/2006 (#1 Film - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest)
06. ¥3.160 billion - 04/17-18/2010 (#1 Film - Alice in Wonderland)
07. ¥3.048 billion - 07/21-22/2001 (#1 Film - Spirited Away)
08. ¥3.046 billion - 12/20-21/2014 (#1 Film - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan!)
09. ¥2.987 billion - 04/18-19/2015 (#1 Film - Dragon Ball Z or Detective Conan TBD!)
10. ¥2.963 billion - 07/17-18/2010 (#1 Film - Arrietty)
11. ¥2.960 billion - 07/18-19/2009 (#1 Film - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince)
12. ¥2.917 billion - 07/10-11/2010 (#1 Film - Toy Story 3)

If estimates hold, this weekend's Top 10 recorded the 9th biggest weekend, and there's still a little room to make the Top 10 if estimates drop a little.

Next weekend has potential to make the Top 10, too, and the frequent biggest weekend every year, the start of Summer weekend (July 18-19 this year) has a good shot, too.

Top 25 Opening Weekends [ANIMATED FEATURES]
Weekend Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Release Date)

01. ¥1.629 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,484,916 [408] :: Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (Dec '14) [#1 All-Time Domestic OW]
02. ¥1.484 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,104,980 [448] :: Howl's Moving Castle (Nov. '04)
03. ¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 [300] :: One Piece Film Z (Dec. '12)
04. ¥1.133 billion ($14.1 million) / 771,764 [223] :: Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (Nov. '12)
05. ¥1.038 billion ($11.9 million) / 819,738 [190] :: One Piece Film Strong World (Dec. '09)
06. ¥1.034 billion ($9.8 million) / 812,557 [481] :: Ponyo (July '08)
07. ¥1.010 billion ($8.9 million) / 810,000 [318] :: Spirited Away (July '01)
08. ¥977.3 million ($11.1 million) / 649,249 [530] :: Toy Story 3 (July '10)
09. ¥960.9 million ($9.8 million) / 747,451 [454] :: The Wind Rises (July '13)
10. ¥907.4 million ($7.9 million) / 672,696 [435] :: Tales from Earthsea (July '06)
11. ¥898.0 million ($8.4 million) / 724,000 [654] :: Finding Nemo (Dec. '03)
12. ¥895.6 million ($10.4 million) / 680,190 [447] :: Arrietty (July '10)
13. ¥880.0 million ($7.4 million) / 700,000 [658] :: Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (Apr. '15) *Est.*
14. ¥860.0 million ($7.2 million) / 700,000 [349] :: Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Apr. '15) *Est.*
15. ¥847.5 million ($8.4 million) / 614,969 [661] :: Monsters University (July '13)
16. ¥789.3 million ($7.8 million) / 649,865 [341] :: Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Apr. '14)
17. ¥780.9 million ($6.5 million) / 742,978 [351] :: Pokemon D&P: The Rise of Darkrai (July '07)
18. ¥767.2 million ($7.6 million) / 554,991 [319] :: Stand By Me, Doraemon (Aug. '14)
19. ¥763.4 million ($7.5 million) / 602,347 [598] :: Frozen (Mar. '14)
20. ¥751.8 million ($7.3 million) / 604,355 [689] :: The Incredibles (Dec. '04)
21. ¥715.0 million ($6.1 million) / 540,000 [260] :: Princess Mononoke (July '97)
22. ¥703.8 million ($6.7 million) / 670,285 [359] :: Pokemon D&P: Giratina and the Sky Warrior (July '08)
23. ¥683.9 million ($7.3 million) / 561,098 [312] :: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods (Mar. '13)
24. ¥672.6 million ($7.1 million) / 641,700 [366] :: Pokemon D&P: Arceus and the Jewel of Life (July '09)
25. ¥671.5 million ($6.9 million) / 565,914 [344] :: Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Apr '13)

Recently Bumped Off:
26. ¥667.3 million ($7.2 million) / 597,899 [353] :: Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum (Mar. '13)
27. ¥649.8 million ($6.4 million) / 539,132 [329] :: Lupin III vs. Detective Conan (Dec. '13)
28. ¥644.7 million ($5.8 million) / 557,310 [351] :: Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes (Mar. '15)
29. ¥629.7 million ($7.7 million) / 540,975 [351] :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (Apr. '12)
30. ¥629.5 million ($7.2 million) / 600,602 [369] :: Pokemon D&P: Zoroark - Master of Illusion (July '10)

Upcoming Major Animated Features:
The Boy and the Beast (07/11/15)
Pokemon XY: The Archdjinni of the Rings - Hoopa (07/18/15)
Inside Out (07/18/15)
Evangelion 4.0: Final (Winter '15)
Yo-Kai Watch 2 (Dec. '15)

I'd say ¥4 billion is almost locked for both, no ? I mean, unless they have really really really bad legs.

Maybe ¥4 billion is possible after all.

Usual Locations (43% of Market) - Weekend Admissions (04/18-19)

Weekend Results:

Admissions (% change) [#Theaters/#Showtimes] - Film (Distributor) Week of Release
289,857 (--) [145/2,024] - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (Toei) NEW
287,715 (--) [145/1,735] - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Toho) NEW
166,166 (--) [149/1,844] - Furious 7 (Toho-Towa) NEW
126,590 (--) [145/1,377] - Crayon Shin-chan: My Moving Story! Cactus Large Attack! (Toho) NEW
25,597 (-38%) [137/808] - Assassination Classroom (Toho) Week 5
21,649 (-42%) [118/796] - April Fools (Toho) Week 3
21,240 (-56%) [139/1,048] - Solomon's Perjury (Part 2) (Shochiku) Week 2
17,099 (-39%) [91/657] - Birdman (Fox) Week 2
15,936 (--) [12/147] - Whiplash (Gaga) NEW
12,347 (-58%) [137/414] - Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes (Toho) Week 7
10,650 (-50%) [144/471] - Into the Woods (Disney) Week 6
10,307 (-50%) [132/413] - Strobe Edge (Toho) Week 6

I'll have Weekend Estimates up shortly!

Makes sense. But regarding numbers Corpse is a conservative.

Well it probably won't be all that long before Corpse or the other guy on the other site give an estimate so we'll see what they have to say.

Going by Corpses estimate yesterday then if he went about it the same way then DBZ should have an estimated gross of ¥410 million today which would put it at ¥870 million or there about.

I don't think such a straight-forward computation will work because as Corpse said in the remaining 57% you have Aeon taking 30% where Conan is likely to be ahead because that chain always has higher admissions for more family and/or kid orientated movies. DBZ is likely ahead at the theaters handled by Toei but I don't exactly know how much that represents.

Yeah I saw you what you said afterward.

So between Saturday and Sunday, DBZ had 290,000 sales from 43%. That could mean 675,000 tickets sold total. At an average cost of ¥1,275 that'd put it at ¥860 million and with the 3D and Imax prices could push it to ¥900 million.

I'll be conservative and hope for around ¥850 million though.

Conan looks to be around 671,000 for tickets sold which would be it at ¥855 million.

Did BOG have friday midnights ? Because taking out the friday midnights of the saturday total leads to 91.16% instead.

Ok, Toho admissions are out : Conan is at 149,004 for the weekend there meaning that using last year's multiplier gives 726,543 admissions for the weekend and then using the gross/admissions multiplier from last year leads to 882 million yen.

I'm predicting :

DBZ - 705.000 admissions, 900 million yen
Conan - 715.000 admissions, 870 million yen

Now it's at 88.3% of it's Saturday admissions so it does look as though it'll be somewhat in line with how Battle of Gods did yeah, it'll hold up a little worse but I suppose that's to be expected if it opened that much higher.

Both look to have slowed down a lot now so they'll be at possibly 675-680k admissions overall

Yeah. Even if Conan isn't a Doraemon which collapses in the evenings, DBZ still has more adults and thus holds better at night. It's probably going to stay in front at these chains for the weekend now.

Also, DBZ had 4,699 admissions with its friday midnights, the website published a long message including that data and other stuff related to seats.

134,756 admissions is 87.5% of yesterday's admissions for DBZ. it will finish close to the 93% you were predicting.

Usual Locations (43% of Market) - Sunday Admissions (As of 9PM)

145,435 - Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Toho) NEW
134,756 - Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (Toei) NEW

Overall

DBZ - 288,608
Conan - 287,103

I remember last night DBZ pulled away from Conan a little more and it looks like it could be happening again on a smaller scale but it has put it make in front a little.

Indeed. Going from last year's data, I think the Conan movie could even top 700,000 admissions. For DBZ I don't really know since its last movie came out before we got all this data every weekend. It's not doing as well at Toho which is the chain some used for multipliers (since it's the biggest among the ones giving their data and was one of the first to do so) but the fact that it's doing better than Conan at smaller chains means it could have a better Toho multiplier (last year's Conan movie's Toho multiplier was 4.876). Although that will be compensated in part by Conan probably doing better at Aeon.

DBZ did 66,769 at Toho yesterday, assuming it does something similar today would put its Toho admissions at 133,538. The question is thus : what will be its Toho multiplier ? With a 4.876 we get 650,000 admissions, with a 5 we get 667,690 admissions, with a 5.2 694,397 admissions and with a 5.25 700,000 admissions are topped.

Both of those could be at 660,000 admissions (as of 8.30pm) and at ¥1,275 per ticket it doesn't look like $850 million openings for both are that far fetched.

As of 8 pm (compared to saturday) :

*1　139,389 Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (Toho) NEW (up by 13,678 admissions)
*2　127,094 Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (Toei) NEW (down by 2,594 admissions)

Total :

Conan - 281,057
DBZ - 280,946

Yeah. It will have been stable all day but will start to decrease compared to saturday when the last showtimes kick-in. Same thing for Conan who's increase compared to saturday will probably be decreasing.

Not sure yet but imo it's certainly looking like DBZ will win the weekend in gross while Conan will win the weekend in admissions.

It had 129k tikctes by 8pm yesterday you said so it still looks to be holding up real well so far but Corpse said it won't do later on.

As of 7 pm :

135,563　Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno
123,221　Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F

Total :

Conan 277,231
DBZ 277,073

And if one or both open over ¥800 million , it's going to be some of the most impressive debuts in some time (especially occurring over the same weekend).

Usually, ¥600/700 million is the maximum for these films, so anything over ¥800 million is approaching major blockbuster territory. And as far as animated films go, only Hayao Miyazaki films, the last two One Piece films, and three Pixar films have opened above ¥800 million, too.

I'll post some weekend estimates tomorrow morning (and charts to go along with them, considering their huge openings), and weekend actuals are released Monday morning (Monday evening in Japan).