Looks like Osaka-area cinemas are closed this Tuesday. I don't know if that was reflected in Mimorin's data or not.

Yeah, it's going to take a lot of time, several years I even expect, for the exchange rate to reach a point again where the average ticket prices (in USD of course) recover. Inflation is very minimal in Japan, so ticket price increases (in Yen) can't keep up on a global scale. Tickets have only increased twice in 30 years (in 2014 and this year, 2023, but not by much). The price of just about everything has been the same in Japan since the early/mid 90s, with only very recent (small) increases this past year or so for things. As have wages since there was little/no need to increase wages because the market is stagnant. The cost of milk in 1993 would be about the same as it is today (or 2022, before this started).

The biggest problem (going back to box office here) though is just how strong the USD has become against the JPY in the last 1.5 years. The Yen has lost over 25% of its value in that relatively short amount of time against the Dollar and has remained at this level (a 20-25 year low, which has even threatened to hit 30-35 years lows) for over a year of it now.

JPY totals and admissions are as strong as ever, stronger in some regards (a lot of records and notable achievements have occurred in the past year or two), but despite that, USD totals have been down ~25% on average for over a year now. Let's just use The Super Mario Bros. Movie for a moment. It's on the cusp of hitting $100 million in Japan now, but that would be around $120 million just 1.5 years ago, and closer to $130 million just 2 years ago.

And it doesn't have an end in sight because the Feds in the US keep raising interest rates and inflation isn't improving much (I think it might have took a turn for the worse again last month?). Japan can't really do anything to combat it. They can take action to put a cap on it to keep it from going much worse, but they can't do anything to see any actual improvement. That's going to take the Dollar to simply weaken. So the question becomes, will the Dollar weaken from a recession in the future or always be at this level moving forward?

It's interesting that Japan used to have some of the most outrageously expensive tickets worldwide 10, 20 or even 30 years ago. But the absence of inflation as well as the weak yen probably means that tickets there are now lower than the average of mature markets as other countries have caught up and largely surpassed it. ¥1500 (around $10.5) ATP for Barbie for example would clearly be lower than high ATP countries like Australia or Switzerland but it's also lower than middle of the pack ones like the US and is trending towards being lower than even South Korea and some eastern european countries in a few years. In 20 years (assuming inflation remains low), Japan will have the cheapest tickets of the developed world.

OBON FESTIVAL 2023 - DAILY ESTIMATES (~08/10-18)

THURSDAY (08/10):
¥100 million ($692,000), -13%, ¥2.68 billion ($18.8 million) - Kingdom III: Flame of Destiny (Toho, Sony) Day 14
¥80 million ($556,000), 0, ¥677 million ($4.7 million) - Elemental (Disney) Day 7
¥80 million ($556,000), -01%, ¥5.79 billion ($40.8 million) - How Do You Live? (Toho) Day 28
¥80 million ($556,000), +02%, ¥3.31 billion ($23.3 million) - Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 (Toho-Towa) Day 21
¥75 million ($521,000), 0, ¥727 million ($5.1 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Super-Powered Climactic Battle - Soaring Hand-Rolled Sushi (Toho) Day 7
¥50 million ($346,000), 0, ¥565 million ($4.0 million) - Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Toho-Towa) Day 7

FRIDAY (08/11): Mountain Day (National Holiday)
¥215 million ($1.5 million), +63%, ¥2.90 billion ($20.3 million) - Kingdom III: Flame of Destiny (Toho, Sony) Day 15
¥165 million ($1.1 million), +106%, ¥3.47 billion ($24.4 million) - Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 (Toho-Towa) Day 22
¥155 million ($1.1 million), +75%, ¥5.94 billion ($41.9 million) - How Do You Live? (Toho) Day 29
¥135 million ($936,000), +35%, ¥812 million ($5.6 million) - Elemental (Disney) Day 8
¥120 million ($832,000), +07%, ¥847 million ($5.9 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Super-Powered Climactic Battle - Soaring Hand-Rolled Sushi (Toho) Day 8
¥80 million ($554,000), 0, ¥80 million ($0.6 million) - Barbie (Warner Bros.) NEW
¥80 million ($554,000), -33%, ¥645 million ($4.5 million) - Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Toho-Towa) Day 8

SATURDAY (08/12):
¥200 million ($1.4 million), -13%, ¥3.10 billion ($21.6 million) - Kingdom III: Flame of Destiny (Toho, Sony) Day 16
¥165 million ($1.1 million), +13%, ¥3.64 billion ($25.5 million) - Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 (Toho-Towa) Day 23
¥150 million ($1.0 million), +03%, ¥6.10 billion ($42.9 million) - How Do You Live? (Toho) Day 30
¥115 million ($798,000), +09%, ¥927 million ($6.4 million) - Elemental (Disney) Day 9
¥100 million ($694,000), -10%, ¥947 million ($6.6 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Super-Powered Climactic Battle - Soaring Hand-Rolled Sushi (Toho) Day 9
¥70 million ($485,000), -43%, ¥715 million ($5.0 million) - Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Toho-Towa) Day 9
¥60 million ($415,000), 0, ¥140 million ($1.0 million) - Barbie (Warner Bros.) Day 2

SUNDAY (08/13):
¥190 million ($1.3 million), -24%, ¥3.28 billion ($22.9 million) - Kingdom III: Flame of Destiny (Toho, Sony) Day 17
¥150 million ($1.0 million), +02%, ¥3.78 billion ($26.5 million) - Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 (Toho-Towa) Day 24
¥135 million ($934,000), -10%, ¥6.24 billion ($43.9 million) - How Do You Live? (Toho) Day 31
¥115 million ($798,000), -16%, ¥1.04 billion ($7.2 million) - Elemental (Disney) Day 10
¥100 million ($694,000), -32%, ¥1.05 billion ($7.3 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Super-Powered Climactic Battle - Soaring Hand-Rolled Sushi (Toho) Day 10
¥65 million ($451,000), -43%, ¥780 million ($5.4 million) - Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Toho-Towa) Day 10
¥50 million ($346,000), 0, ¥191 million ($1.3 million) - Barbie (Warner Bros.) Day 3

MONDAY (08/14): Aeon Cinema Day
¥190 million ($1.3 million), +84%, ¥3.47 billion ($24.2 million) - Kingdom III: Flame of Destiny (Toho, Sony) Day 18
¥150 million ($1.0 million), +145%, ¥3.93 billion ($27.5 million) - Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1 (Toho-Towa) Day 25
¥135 million ($934,000), +87%, ¥6.53 billion ($44.8 million) - How Do You Live? (Toho) Day 32
¥120 million ($831,000), +56%, ¥1.16 billion ($8.0 million) - Elemental (Disney) Day 11
¥110 million ($761,000), +46%, ¥1.16 billion ($8.0 million) - Crayon Shin-chan: Super-Powered Climactic Battle - Soaring Hand-Rolled Sushi (Toho) Day 11
¥65 million ($450,000), +27%, ¥845 million ($5.9 million) - Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Toho-Towa) Day 11
¥45 million ($311,000), 0, ¥236 million ($1.6 million) - Barbie (Warner Bros.) Day 4

% change vs same day last week.

Estimates adjusted (though dailies are still rounded to make it easier). Didn't have to do much! Estimates were largely close/spot on. Totals as of Sunday for Kingdom III, MI7, HDYL?, Elemental, and Barbie are actuals.

Everything (except for Barbie) sold slightly more tickets on Monday than Sunday, but Aeon Cinema Day very slightly lowers the avg. ticket price, so the day itself was likely almost even in gross (gave Elemental and Crayon Shin-chan increases over Sun. since their lower avg. ticket price is impacted the least). Very strong day, not unexpected for Obon Festival since weekdays and weekends become blurred, but possibly inflated from people heading out before the typhoon hits on Tuesday.

We'll need to see what sort of impact this typhoon really has, but if Tuesday does drop unusually hard, you can expect Wednesday to bounce back up to the dailies we've seen since Friday.

That's gonna make ¥1 billion pretty tough... Skewed very, very heavily urban (67%...). Really needs to take advantage of the rest of Obon.

Before I post Monday's estimates, I'm going to see what totals as of Sunday have been updated first.

Barbie - ¥190,939,600 / 126,916 admits

Looking at MIMORIN seat data for Tuesday suggests that a significant amount of cinemas might be closed on Tuesday probably because of the Typhoon. Looks like 10% fewer shows and seats

Okay, so overall weekend performance based on my estimates!

Kingdom III barely dropped vs last weekend, dropping ~5% or a bit less. Very good third weekend. This should be enough to get it to the ¥5 billion milestone, making the Kingdom franchise only the third live-action domestic franchise to have three films reach this mark, but need to see at least another week's worth of numbers to be sure.

MI7 performed the best vs last weekend, and I have it increasing around ~25-30% in its fourth weekend. It's less than ¥1 billion away from outgrossing MI6, and with several more boosted days to come, this is pretty much a done deal now. It's *probably* going to exceed ¥5 billion and possibly outgross MI5 and MI3 as well.

HDYL? also did great, up perhaps ~15% vs last weekend. While this is great, the numbers have fallen enough where it makes ¥10 billion pretty difficult. It's tracking behind The Wind Rises, and remember that one needed a Miyazaki retirement announcement later in its run to comfortably cross ¥10 billion. So... if Toho wants to get HDYL? to the milestone, they will probably need to announce something to help it.

Elemental also likely increased, up ~5-10% vs its opening weekend. Still too early to project a total I think, but it has ¥2 billion locked up now and will probably be hoping to reach ¥3 billion. But we need to see more numbers before expecting that much.

Crayon Shin-chan dropped vs its opening weekend, but still managed a strong ~20% or so hold. The franchise has a little bit of frontloading, so no surprise it couldn't quite get to that flat line in its second weekend. It'll certainly exceed ¥2 billion and become one of the highest grossing films in the long running franchise (this is the 31st entry in the series).

Transformers, however, was quite frontloaded. I have it dropping nearly 40% in its second weekend which would be okay normally, but it's pretty dang bad over a holiday weekend. Probably won't reach ¥1.5 billion, or just barely crawl there.

And finally, Barbie largely disappointed. Since its opening is inflated due to Obon, they'll be some degree of frontloading by opening on it, but it *should* still be able to reach ¥1 billion ($7 million). Obviously disappointing compared to its numbers in most/all other countries, but this would be impressive for a Western comedy in the market regardless of expectations.

Elemental est. came same as the Disney Update - $7.2M (+6% 2nd Weekend) ~ OW $2.4M

Maybe a tad, but still lots of great holds and nearly on par with Sat, just no Sun-to-Sun increases except for probably MI7. The typhoon could begin to dampen the numbers a little over the next day or two.

This Sunday seems kind of soft compared to last week. is it just the natural decline of holdovers? Or is it because of anticipation of the typhoon?

Yeaaahhh... forgot Friday was a holiday. But the Saturday drop was still pretty big regardless. Probably going to aim for just the ¥1 billion (~$7 million) unless it becomes a WOM hit or something.

No doubt a disappointment, but again I want to emphasize that this is still a good result for a Western comedy. I don't even know the last one that grossed over ¥1 billion. And I don't even recall when one was in the top 10.

1.5b seems a bit tough to me since it already had a fairly sizable decrease on saturday.

It's still in that stage of wait-and-see. It's moving slowly and is projected to hit on Tuesday now I believe instead of Monday.

Did the typhoon we feared a day or so ago get weaker? I'm not seeing many reports or forecasts for severe weather. But that might just be google being silly. Also not seeing any repeated headlines that say the Tokaido Shinkansen "could shut down," though those were common a day ago.

Edit: definitely don't want to have spoken too soon but I really am curious

Still in limbo from everything I've read recently.

I haven't seen it, but the criticism is that the movie doesn't have an anti-war message, nor does it show the aftermath in Japan after the bombings, or if it does, it's glanced over. It largely skips that part. Again, I can't say if this holds any weight or not, it's just what keeps coming up in the news articles. There's concern it'll receive heavy public criticism for the distributor (which would be Toho-Towa, subsidiary of Toho), and Japan is a market where companies don't cross that line.

There's also the celebratory nature of the #Barbenheimer meme going on online which has drew criticism, especially since Warner Bros. US got involved in it (tweeting the poster with Barbie on Oppenheimer's shoulder with Japan being bombed behind them). Randoms on Twitter is one thing, but the actual studio was another. Warner Bros. Japan had to issue an apology over it.

If it does get released though, it's probably going be very weakened from all of this and not perform well. I believe Barbie was already going to disappoin for all the reasons I've mentioned before (Western comedy, no recognizable cast members, the brand being questionably known), but being tied so closely to Oppenheimer may have had a negative impact too.

@Corpse. Any chance still for Oppenheimer to get a release in Japan?

Tomorrow/today should be the biggest travel days. If you're wondering why Saturday might come in lower than Friday, it's not unusual for major holiday periods. Weekdays (Mon-Fri) and weekends (Sat-Sun) become blurred and can be equal in business.

And it totally slipped my mind, but yesterday was also a holiday (Mountain Day). So Saturday will almost certainly come in lower than Friday (though looks to be roughly on par with last Saturday so far for most films), while Sunday will likely see a bump since most are off the upcoming week. And depending on what happens with this approaching typhoon, Monday-Thursday (Mon. and Wed. in particular) will be comparable to Saturday and Sunday.

Is the Saturday before Obon a traditional travel day? I thought I read somewhere though that most people have already got a move on in their travels by now.

I don't know what to make of the presales at a glance for Elemental. Sure it's selling a lot but it doesn't seem like the knockout I wanted. Oh well it's still early morning in Japan.

I was excited because I noticed Elemental scored the really big screens like 500 and 600+ seats for Wednesday for some locations. But IDK.

Assuming it came in around ¥90 million today, so maybe ~¥250-300 million for the 3-day, that'll be plenty to get it to ¥1 billion ($7 million). If the opening weekend is in that range, it could end up closer to ¥1.5 billion ($11 million). This wouldn't be a bad result at all for a Western comedy, it'd be very good in fact. Almost none of them reach ¥1 billion. It's just going to look bad given what it's done in the US and other markets.

So Barbie will not even hit 1B yen in Japan? It is disappointing. I guess the humor did not connect at all like in Korea. China WOM was surprisingly good and so it had a good run over there(nothing outrageous).

Going to see weekend increases across the board. (Minus a few films).

Kingdom III continues to do well, and ¥5 billion is looking good if it keeps this up all week. Remember, if it can get to ¥5 billion, it'll become only the third live-action domestic franchise to achieve this feat after Bayside Shakedown and Umizaru.

MI7 is showing great strength, and is very likely to outgross MI6 and probably reach ¥5 billion too. It can also outgross MI3 and MI5 if it gets to that point as they're not far above ¥5 billion. (Fun Fact: Its 22nd day estimate above is on par with its 22nd day in the US.)

How Do You Live? got some IMAX returned to it as mentioned in this thread, so it's possible it could be a little higher. Want to see where it stands after Obon Festival, but ¥10 billion continues to remain in play, even if it might have to crawl there.

Elemental increasing ~35% over its opening day is very good. It'll have earned over 3x it opening weekend after ten days which is strong. Too early to project where it could be heading, need to see how Obon plays out and what happens closer towards the end of the month (and beginning of September), but I think ¥3 billion is looking doable.

Crayon Shin-chan going the 3D/CGI route this year doesn't appear to be benefitting it any, but it's also not hurting it, so it's sort of a wash it appears. It'll probably gross over ¥2 billion and be among the higher grossing films in the franchise though. It just didn't get the novelty bump that Stand By Me, Doraemon did.

Barbie disappointing isn't surprising. The last Western comedy to find success was Ted, and that was a real shock and probably associated with it having a talking teddy bear. Western comedies simply don't translate well in Japan, so they typically disappoint/bomb (most don't even get very wide releases). And combined with not having a recognizable cast to help draw people in, there was a high chance Barbie wasn't going to do well in Japan. Although... it's definitely doing better than most Western comedies, that's just far below the performance it's put up in most other countries of course.