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 Japan Box-Office: Weekend Actuals (04/10-11); Charts Updated 
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Don't Dream It, Be It
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
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Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390 *Discount Day*
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *Pre-Holiday Boosted*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.3 million) / 900,000 *Holiday*
11/04 - Wed.: ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 260,000
11/05 - Thur.: ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 170,000
11/06 - Fri.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 240,000
11/07 - Sat.: ¥863,827,750 ($8.3 million) / 628,614
11/08 - Sun.: ¥909,098,150 ($8.8 million) / 667,179
11/09 - Mon.: ¥315,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 230,000
11/10 - Tues.: ¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 160,000
11/11 - Wed.: ¥295,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 230,000
11/12 - Thur.: ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 145,000
11/13 - Fri.: ¥310,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 225,000
11/14 - Sat.: ¥795,343,500 ($7.6 million) / 611,418
11/15 - Sun.: ¥726,313,550 ($6.9 million) / 535,986
11/16 - Mon.: ¥265,000,000 ($2.5 million) / 195,000
11/17 - Tues.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/18 - Wed.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 185,000
11/19 - Thur.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/20 - Fri.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 170,000
11/21 - Sat.: ¥439,606,550 ($4.2 million) / 314,726
11/22 - Sun.: ¥592,738,550 ($5.7 million) / 433,315
11/23 - Mon.: ¥460,110,250 ($4.4 million) / 357,741 *Holiday*
11/24 - Tues.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 90,000
11/25 - Wed.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 120,000
11/26 - Thur.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million) / 85,000
11/27 - Fri.: ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 130,000
11/28 - Sat.: ¥556,443,300 ($5.3 million) / 392,017
11/29 - Sun: ¥448,060,450 ($4.3 million) / 320,031
11/30 - Mon.: ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million) / 105,000
12/01 - Tues.: ¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 145,000 *Discount Day*
12/02 - Wed.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) /100,000
12/03 - Thur.: ¥x95,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x70,000
12/04 - Fri.: ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million) / 105,000
12/05 - Sat.: ¥319,013,550 ($3.1 million) / 225,976
12/06 - Sun.: ¥336,505,700 ($3.2 million) / 239,874
12/07 - Mon.: ¥100,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000
12/08 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x55,000
12/09 - Wed.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x90,000
12/10 - Thur.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000
12/11 - Fri.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x80,000
12/12 - Sat.: ¥588,408,200 ($5.7 million) / 407,286
12/13 - Sun.: ¥351,003,000 ($3.4 million) / 248,024
12/14 - Mon.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.2 million) / x85,000
12/15 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000
12/16 - Wed.: ¥110,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x85,000
12/17 - Thur.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000
12/18 - Fri.: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x65,000
12/19 - Sat.: ¥187,788,050 ($1.8 million) / 133,068
12/20 - Sun.: ¥202,627,400 ($2.0 million) / 148,780
12/21 - Mon.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000
12/22 - Tues.: ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million) / x45,000
12/23 - Wed.: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x65,000
12/24 - Thur.: ¥x70,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x50,000
12/25 - Fri.: ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000
12/26 - Sat.: ¥554,583,650 ($5.3 million) / 355,697
12/27 - Sun.: ¥353,034,550 ($3.4 million) / 219,946
12/28 - Mon.: ¥290,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 190,000
12/29 - Tues.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.2 million) / 205,000
12/30 - Wed.: ¥335,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 240,000
12/31 - Thur.: ¥210,000,000 ($2.0 million) / 135,000
01/01 - Fri.: ¥320,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 230,000 *Holiday, Discount Day*
01/02 - Sat.: ¥351,200,000 ($3.4 million) / 220,150 *Bank Holiday*
01/03 - Sun.: ¥326,800,000 ($3.2 million) / 204,850 *Bank Holiday*
01/04 - Mon.: ¥275,000,000 ($2.6 million) / 180,000 *Post-Holiday Boosted*
01/05 - Tues.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 100,000
01/06 - Wed.: ¥135,000,000 ($1.3 million) / x95,000
01/07 - Thur.: ¥x80,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x50,000
01/08 - Fri.: ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million) / x40,000
01/09 - Sat.: ¥125,790,000 ($1.2 million) / x75,600
01/10 - Sun.: ¥173,710,000 ($1.7 million) / 104,400
01/11 - Mon.: ¥132,804,950 ($1.3 million) / x84,300 *Holiday*
01/12 - Tues.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000
01/13 - Wed.: ¥x45,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x30,000
01/14 - Thur.: ¥x45,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000
01/15 - Fri.: ¥x50,000,000 ($0.5 million) / x30,000
01/16 - Sat.: ¥x95,550,000 ($0.9 million) / x57,810
01/17 - Sun.: ¥107,750,000 ($1.0 million) / x65,190
01/18 - Mon.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x23,000
01/19 - Tues.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x20,000
01/20 - Wed.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x27,000
01/21 - Thur.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x20,000
01/22 - Fri.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000
01/23 - Sat.: ¥x87,960,400 ($0.8 million) / x53,648
01/24 - Sun.: ¥x95,673,000 ($0.9 million) / x58,352
01/25 - Mon.: ¥x33,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x21,000
01/26 - Tues.: ¥x29,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x18,000
01/27 - Wed.: ¥x38,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x26,000
01/28 - Thur.: ¥x30,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x19,000
01/29 - Fri.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x21,000
01/30 - Sat.: ¥x78,544,500 ($0.7 million) / x48,829
01/31 - Sun.: ¥x90,219,600 ($0.9 million) / x56,171
02/01 - Mon.: ¥x36,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x28,000 *Discount Day*
02/02 - Tues.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x16,000
02/03 - Wed.: ¥x34,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x24,000
02/04 - Thur.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x16,000
02/05 - Fri.: ¥x28,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x17,000
02/06 - Sat.: ¥x67,883,790 ($0.6 million) / x42,974
02/07 - Sun.: ¥x77,443,410 ($0.7 million) / x49,026
02/08 - Mon.: ¥x25,000,000 ($0.24 million) / x16,000
02/09 - Tues.: ¥x23,000,000 ($0.22 million) / x14,000
02/10 - Wed.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.34 million) / x25,000
02/11 - Thur.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.72 million) / x47,000 *Holiday*
02/12 - Fri.: ¥x32,000,000 ($0.31 million) / x20,000
02/13 - Sat.: ¥x54,533,337 ($0.52 million) / x34,746
02/14 - Sun.: ¥x66,316,163 ($0.63 million) / x42,254
02/15 - Mon.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.26 million) / x17,000
02/16 - Tues.: ¥x25,000,000 ($0.24 million) / x16,000
02/17 - Wed.: ¥x33,000,000 ($0.31 million) / x23,000
02/18 - Thur.: ¥x24,000,000 ($0.23 million) / x15,000
02/19 - Fri.: ¥x28,000,000 ($0.27 million) / x17,000
02/20 - Sat.: ¥x73,694,892 ($0.69 million) / x46,455
02/21 - Sun.: ¥x77,010,408 ($0.73 million) / x48,545
02/22 - Mon.: ¥x41,000,000 ($0.39 million) / x27,000 *Pre-Holiday Boosted*
02/23 - Tues.: ¥x87,000,000 ($0.83 million) / x55,000 *Holiday*
02/24 - Wed.: ¥x29,000,000 ($0.28 million) / x21,000
02/25 - Thur.: ¥x23,000,000 ($0.22 million) / x15,000
02/26 - Fri.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.25 million) / x17,000
02/27 - Sat.: ¥x72,622,137 ($0.68 million) / x46,660
02/28 - Sun.: ¥x83,018,963 ($0.78 million) / x53,340
03/01 - Mon.: ¥x29,000,000 ($0.26 million) / x22,000 *Discount Day*
03/02 - Tues.: ¥x24,000,000 ($0.22 million) / x15,000
03/03 - Wed.: ¥x31,000,000 ($0.28 million) / x22,000
03/04 - Thur.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.25 million) / x16,000
03/05 - Fri.: ¥x31,000,000 ($0.28 million) / x19,000
03/06 - Sat.: ¥68,704,711 ($0.63 million) / x40,982
03/07 - Sun.: ¥93,909,989 ($0.86 million) / x56,018
03/08 - Mon.: ¥16,000,000 ($0.15 million) / x12,000
03/09 - Tues.: ¥13,000,000 ($0.12 million) / x10,000
03/10 - Wed.: ¥18,000,000 ($0.17 million) / x15,000
03/11 - Thur.: ¥14,000,000 ($0.13 million) / x11,000
03/12 - Fri.: ¥18,000,000 ($0.17 million) / x13,000
03/13 - Sat.: ¥39,715,728 ($0.36 million) / x27,895
03/14 - Sun: ¥47,132,572 ($0.43 million) / x33,105
03/15 - Mon.: ¥16,000,000 ($0.15 million) / x12,000
03/16 - Tues.: ¥14,000,000 ($0.13 million) / x10,000
03/17 - Wed.: ¥20,000,000 ($0.18 million) / x16,000
03/18 - Thur.: ¥14,000,000 ($0.13 million) / x10,000
03/19 - Fri.: ¥22,000,000 ($0.20 million) / x16,000
03/20 - Sat.: ¥41,374,000 ($0.38 million) / x29,000
03/21 - Sun.: ¥41,374,000 ($0.38 million) / x29,000
03/22 - Mon.: ¥14,000,000 ($0.13 million) / x10,000
03/23 - Tues.: ¥13,000,000 ($0.12 million) / x9,000
03/24 - Wed.: ¥19,000,000 ($0.17 million) / x15,000
03/25 - Thur.: ¥16,000,000 ($0.15 million) / x12,000
03/26 - Fri.: ¥25,000,000 ($0.23 million) / x18,000
03/27 - Sat.: ¥x98,147,463 ($0.90 million) / x64,646
03/28 - Sun.: ¥x71,893,187 ($0.66 million) / x47,354
03/29 - Mon.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.32 million) / x24,000 *est.*
03/30 - Tues.: ¥x33,000,000 ($0.30 million) / x22,000 *est.*
03/31 - Wed.: ¥x41,000,000 ($0.37 million) / x29,000 *est.*
04/01 - Thur.: ¥x34,000,000 ($0.31 million) / x25,000 *est.*
04/02 - Fri.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.24 million) / x18,000 *est.*
04/03 - Sat.: ¥155,000,000 ($1.40 million) / 100,000 *est.*


170-Day Cumulative Total: ¥39,363,746,700 ($376.38 million) / 28,519,381 Admissions

Note: Mon.-Fri. are rounded estimates (excluding Holiday Mondays), therefore adding up each day won't equal the exact actual total.

No, that number isn't a typo. That's a real estimate of its 170th day in release, which is also its biggest single-day since JANUARY 10th which was 83(!) days ago.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Sat Apr 03, 2021 6:26 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast (04/02-03)
FranSpeech's numbers are estimates unless they've stated otherwise. Daily figures are not reported in Japan. They look perfectly fine, but it's pretty hard to say what was #1 yesterday. However, Demon Slayer was *probably* #1 in admissions since it narrowly (by 900 admissions) beat Evangelion when the independent locations are included. the independent locations aren't used in calculations, but they can be used to determine certain rankings (like what was #1 yesterday) if it's really close.

The revenue is where it's more difficult to determine since Evangelion's avg. ticket price has been a little higher. Overall, they're just too close to really know which came out on top.

As for Sunday: Evangelion will definitely drop a good bit versus last Sunday since it was boosted by the stage greetings last Sunday. Demon Slayer will be interesting to watch. It's going to drop a good bit versus Saturday of course given the giveaways primarily boost Saturday, but last Sunday was also down a lot because of the giveaway last weekend. So I'm guessing that'll cancel that out and result in a Sunday increase versus last week since this Sat was up versus last Sat. But we'll just need to wait and see. Even at this stage, its setting precedents (back-to-back giveaway weekends in its 24/25th weeks) of its own.

Evangelion should still win the weekend though since its Sunday tomorrow will likely come in higher than Demon Slayer's. Demon Slayer's will fall versus Saturday, whereas Evangelion's should at least remain flat. Evangelion's Sunday will be down a lot versus last Sunday which was boosted, but it shouldn't really drop versus yesterday.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Sat Apr 03, 2021 6:19 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast (04/02-03)
Woah, amazing feat by KnY
It's already set to create an unbreakable record huh
Very noice


Sat Apr 03, 2021 3:08 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast (04/02-03)
From @Franspeech on Twitter :

JP BO
April 3 (Est)

1 #DemonSlayer $1,51M/$376,4M (+53,3%)
2 #EVANGELION3010 / $1,5M /$61,76M (-35,7%)
3. #MonsterHunter $650k/$6,1M
4. #GekijôbanSignal $600k/$1,1M
5. #FangsOfFiction $330k/ $2,75M
7. #TomAndJerry $220k/$5,22M

(% Last Sat )

Apparently Demon Slayer is # 1 again today in terms of revenue. In terms of admissions, it is in my opinion very tight.

Corpse, I think tomorrow Evangelion will have a bigger drop because last Sunday there were the greetings and it was a weekend of gifts, while Demon Slayer could perhaps increase even more since there are the gifts. Would it be possible for Demon Slayer to become # 1 again this weekend for the very last time ?


Sat Apr 03, 2021 1:11 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021 Daily Ests.
somekindofthing wrote:
KNYtracker777 wrote:
As for the BD sales,i think it'll sell atleast a million (likely a lot more),this is just a guess but looking at the BD ranking sites here

The art of anime DVD/BD sales prediction is a tricky one. The site everyone used to look to for this sort of thing was Amazon Ranking Stalker, which shut down a few years ago and has been replaced by a site called Pripri. Both of these sites use similar methodologies that award a certain number of "points" (1 point = 1 predicted first week disc sale, as reported by Oricon) based on the average daily ranking at Amazon Japan.

The results are usually decent for ballparking first week sales of TV series. There are factors that can throw it off, but if those factors are absent, it can get close. E.g. if it predicts ~4,000 units sold, final sales will probably be in the 3-5k range or so.

But it mostly falls apart for releases that spend a lot of time at #1. You can use historical data to know roughly how much ranking #1250 or #285 or #6733 is worth, but #1 has an unknown upper bound problem. Typically ranking #1 is worth about 2,400 points a day for a BD (iirc) on the prediction sites. But "#1" could actually mean 1,000... or 100,000, for all we know.

There's a mountain of minutiae we cold go into about how these prediction systems work, but suffice to say they were built for TV series selling hundreds, thousands, or at most a couple tens of thousands of discs. Their methods aren't able to handle hundreds of thousands, let alone millions.

I bring all this up because it's literally the only tool we've ever had to predict disc sales, and it just doesn't work for something like Kimetsu (or any really major anime film). So there's just no way to make an informed prediction here.

Regarding looking at its ranking at various video retailers... as hinted above with the Amazon issue, you have to consider that it's all relative. Even if Kimetsu debuted at a "mere" 200k first week (say 125k BDs and 75k DVDs, a number most people here would probably view as "shockingly disappointing"), that'd still be more than enough for it to sweep the top of almost every video retailer's charts almost every day until release. After all, in any given week the best-ranking things we see on the DVD and BD charts usually debut under 10k. Any six figure release or higher is an NFL linebacker in a kiddie pool.

Also consider that at the moment (and for the last few days), Kimetsu is being beaten at Amazon by a late night TV series about girls who are the spiritual reincarnations of famous Japanese race horses. Ume Musume is indeed going to sell extremely well for a TV series, but we're talking a few tens of thousands at the absolute most. Obviously I think Kimetsu is going to sell far more than Uma Musume in reality, but it's an example of how weirdly volatile retailer rankings can be and why they need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.

In short, the way you'd see Kimetsu rank on retailer charts for a 100k debut is more or less identical to what you'd see if pulled off a 1 million debut or a 10 million debut (10m is a joke, to be clear). This doesn't mean it can't debut with seven figures, it just means that retailer rankings can't help us differentiate between any of those scenarios.

(Now, if Kimetsu weren't dominating the rankings that could be a pretty strong hint it's going to profoundly underperform, so I guess they can be useful that way. But it's unlikely it's going to come in that far below expectations, which is why I'm only focusing on the upper bound problem here. We can be pretty sure it's at least going to be a NFL linebacker in that kiddie pool, but the real question everyone wants answered if is if it's going to be a thousand foot tall giant or not.)



Thank you so much for this post! This was such a great read and I learned something new again! Thank you for sharing.


Sat Apr 03, 2021 9:12 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast (04/02-03)
It's very tight today. Towards the end of the day, on the usual locations Evangelion ended up overtaking Demon Slayer in terms of admissions. But I have no idea who is actually 1st on the whole day. Today a 53% increase, it will take a 57% increase tomorrow for now 55% increase this weekend as predicted by your predictions. I really don't know how the day will be tomorrow. A raise ? / A slight decrease ?


Sat Apr 03, 2021 8:51 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast (04/02-03)
Evangelion has been doing amazing. After this weekend, it'll have already grossed nearly 30% MORE than the last film's total (which was already excellent) and will easily end up earning over 50% (maybe even 60%) more. (Although I may have predicted a better hold than what it's looking at this weekend.)

At the mid-day point, Demon Slayer is selling ~52% of all its available tickets and is about guaranteed to come in first place for the day on its 170th day in release, ahead of Evangelion. It's already surpassed its full Sunday last weekend, and will surpass last Saturday in the next ~2 hours. If it can continue to sell 50% (or more) of all its available tickets in the second-half of the day, then it'll be on track to come in right around the forecast.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Sat Apr 03, 2021 12:39 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast (04/02-03)
Evangelion is holding up really well. It turned out to be a great release date/strategy in the end.


Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:38 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Weekend Forecast (04/02-03)
Biggest 25th Weekends (2000-):

¥265.0 million ($2.4 million), +55%, ¥39.48 billion ($377.4 million) - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *Prediction*
¥x84.3 million ($0.7 million), -18%, ¥24.20 billion ($229.3 million) - Your Name. (2016)
¥x78.0 million ($0.6 million), +30%, ¥29.02 billion ($238.9 million) - Spirited Away (2001)


And that's it! Nothing else besides these three films is above ¥10 million if they were even still playing beyond a handful of locations in order to be tracked.

Spirited Away is estimated using its weekend ranking (its 25th weekend was New Year). It'd fall outside the Top 10 in its 27th weekend and then return in its 32nd weekend after its post-Oscar win expansion and remain there until its 38th weekend (it reached ¥30 billion during its post-Oscar run). Your Name. spent 29 consecutive weeks in the Top 10 and I have all its numbers to post for future Biggest Weekend charts.

_________________
Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


Wakanda Forever


Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:16 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Weekend Forecast (04/02-03)
Weekend Forecast (04/02-03):
01 (01) ¥338,000,000 ($3.1 million), -36%, ¥6,910,000,000 ($63.3 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) WK4
02 (03) ¥265,000,000 ($2.4 million), +55%, ¥39,475,000,000 ($377.4 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) WK25
03 (02) ¥159,000,000 ($1.4 million), -38%, ¥745,000,000 ($6.7 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) WK2
04 (---) ¥150,000,000 ($1.4 million), 0, ¥200,000,000 ($1.8 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) NEW
05 (04) ¥x84,000,000 ($760,000), -29%, ¥355,000,000 ($3.2 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) WK2
06 (05) ¥x82,000,000 ($740,000), -27%, ¥850,000,000 ($7.7 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) WK3
07 (07) ¥x72,000,000 ($650,000), -15%, ¥620,000,000 ($5.7 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) WK3
08 (06) ¥x51,000,000 ($460,000), -52%, ¥350,000,000 ($3.2 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) WK2
09 (---) ¥x50,000,000 ($450,000), 0, ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million), Ensemble Stars!! Music Garden Delay Viewing (Toho) NEW
10 (08) ¥x46,000,000 ($415,000), -40%, ¥360,000,000 ($3.3 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) WK3


So unlike last weekend, I thoroughly tracked Demon Slayer's ticket sales going into the weekend, and have looked over Sunday's, and I'm very confident this forecast will be much closer than last weekend. It's on track to sell up to 50% of all its available tickets nationwide on Saturday (which I mentioned as attainable in my post above tracking it), which will get it right around 100,000 admissions for the day for ~¥150 million or a bit higher for Saturday alone. And if it does come in below the forecast this weekend, it's going to be like a regular prediction just falling a bit short. It's also going to beat Evangelion on Saturday at take #1 for one final day.

And this will be by far the Biggest 25th Weekend ever, adding another record to its list. I'll have that chart up later tonight, but I'm pretty sure it's only going to have Demon Slayer and Your Name. on it. Everything else had either finished their runs already, or have fallen well outside the Top 10 (well outside) and likely don't even come in at ¥5/¥10 million. I also think Spirited Away fell out of the Top 10 in its 25th week (it'd return several weeks later following its Oscar win), so its weekend gross is unavailable for several weeks.

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Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:49 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021 Daily Ests.
Demon Slayer's (25th) Saturday presales came in at nearly 31,000(!) from ~50% of the market. That's 134% higher than last Saturday's presales, and over 70% of last Saturday's overall ticket sales already. It's also nearly as high (95%) as last Sunday's overall ticket sales.

Weekend Forecast will be posted in the next half hour or so.

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"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021 Daily Ests.
Great post Corpse. And looks like a huge weekend coming ahead for DS.


Fri Apr 02, 2021 7:44 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021 Daily Ests.
Demon Slayer's 25th Saturday Reservations (Day 170) - Final Update (~6 hours before open):

List of theaters I regularly track:

Toho Cinemas (13/69):
Shinjuku - 4/4 [2 Sold Out, 2 80% Full] = ~90% Capacity
Umeda - 2/4 [2 50% Full] = ~40% Capacity
Namba - 5/5 [4 Sold Out, 1 80% Full] = ~95% Capacity
Ikebukuro - 3/3 [1 80% Full, 2 50% Full] = ~60% Capacity
Sendai - 1/3 [1 50% Full] = ~35% Capacity
Nihonbashi - 3/4 [3 50% Full] = ~45% Capacity
Roppongi - 2/2 [1 Sold Out, 1 80% Full] = ~90% Capacity
Kinshicho - 2/3 [2 50% Full] = ~40% Full
Ebina - 5/6 [1 Sold Out, 3 80% full, 1 50% Full] = ~70% Capacity
Kawasaki - 4/4 [2 Sold Out, 1 80% Full, 1 50% Full] = ~85% Capacity
Nishinomiya - 3/5 [1 Sold Out, 1 80% Full, 1 50% Full] = ~55% Capacity
Kochi - 3/3 [1 Sold Out, 2 80% Full] = ~85% Capacity
Akita - 1/3 [1 50% Full] = ~35% Capacity

Movix Cinemas (5/23):
Shinjuku - 2/2 [1 Sold Out, 1 80% Full] = ~95% Capacity
Saitama - 3/3 [3 Sold Out] = 100% Capacity
Miyoshi - 3/3 [1 80% Full, 2 50% Full] = ~60% Capacity
Kyoto - 1/4 [1 80% Full] = ~40% Capacity
Yao - 2/4 [2 50% Full] = ~35% Capacity

Other:
Shinjuku Wald 9 - 3/4 [2 80% Full, 1 50% Full] = ~60% Capacity
Hiroshima Wald 11 - 3/4 [ 1 80% Full, 2 50% Full] = ~45% Capacity
T-Joy Yokohama - 2/4 [2 80% Full] = ~50% Capacity
T-Joy Prince Shinagawa - 3/6 [3 50% Full] = ~40% Capacity
Yokohama Burg 13 - 2/4 [2 80% Full] = ~50% Capacity
Umeda Burg 7 - 3/5 [2 80% Full, 1 50% Full] = ~50% Capacity
Cinecitta - 2/4 [2 80% Full] = ~50% Capacity

Overall: 65/96 [16 - Sold Out, 26 - 80% Full, 23 - 50% Full] = ~60% Capacity


So with about 6 hours to go before open on Saturday, it has sold roughly 60% of all its available tickets at these locations combined. Reservations will represent the majority of the days sales, but with however many more of them are bought, and taking into account some walk-up sales, it should easily manage selling 70/75% of all its tickets at these locations. If it creeps closer to 75%, or 80%, it suggests that nationwide capacity can reach 50%+. For reference, it reached ~23% capacity nationwide last weekend.

Not predicting anything ahead of the Weekend Forecast later this evening, just know this is a lot higher than last Saturday and a weekend increase is incredibly likely, and it should be pretty significant. Last Saturday/Weekend was great, just overshot it by not tracking it much ahead of time. But this Saturday/Weekend is likely to look more like what I was expecting last weekend.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Demon Slayer Obliterating Record Books
Image

Demon Slayer: Mugen Train - Daily Performance Tracker

10/16 - Fri.: ¥1,268,724,700 ($12.0 million) / 910,507
10/17 - Sat.: ¥1,701,723,350 ($16.2 million) / 1,270,234
10/18 - Sun.: ¥1,652,669,400 ($15.7 million) / 1,239,752
10/19 - Mon.: ¥735,000,000 ($7.0 million) / 545,000
10/20 - Tues.: ¥545,000,000 ($5.1 million) / 395,000
10/21 - Wed.: ¥635,000,000 ($6.0 million) / 505,000
10/22 - Thur.: ¥465,000,000 ($4.5 million) / 340,000
10/23 - Fri.: ¥700,000,000 ($6.7 million) / 510,000
10/24 - Sat.: ¥1,500,944,600 ($14.3 million) / 1,115,182
10/25 - Sun.: ¥1,540,504,150 ($14.7 million) / 1,157,654
10/26 - Mon.: ¥620,000,000 ($5.9 million) / 460,000
10/27 - Tues.: ¥410,000,000 ($3.9 million) / 300,000
10/28 - Wed.: ¥575,000,000 ($5.5 million) / 430,000
10/29 - Thur.: ¥390,000,000 ($3.7 million) / 285,000
10/30 - Fri.: ¥555,000,000 ($5.3 million) / 405,000
10/31 - Sat.: ¥1,212,312,550 ($11.6 million) / 887,893
11/01 - Sun.: ¥1,286,354,600 ($12.3 million) / 1,140,390 *Discount Day*
11/02 - Mon: ¥820,000,000 ($7.8 million) / 605,000 *Pre-Holiday Boosted*
11/03 - Tues.: ¥1,185,000,000 ($11.3 million) / 900,000 *Holiday*
11/04 - Wed.: ¥350,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 260,000
11/05 - Thur.: ¥230,000,000 ($2.2 million) / 170,000
11/06 - Fri.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 240,000
11/07 - Sat.: ¥863,827,750 ($8.3 million) / 628,614
11/08 - Sun.: ¥909,098,150 ($8.8 million) / 667,179
11/09 - Mon.: ¥315,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 230,000
11/10 - Tues.: ¥220,000,000 ($2.1 million) / 160,000
11/11 - Wed.: ¥295,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 230,000
11/12 - Thur.: ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 145,000
11/13 - Fri.: ¥310,000,000 ($3.0 million) / 225,000
11/14 - Sat.: ¥795,343,500 ($7.6 million) / 611,418
11/15 - Sun.: ¥726,313,550 ($6.9 million) / 535,986
11/16 - Mon.: ¥265,000,000 ($2.5 million) / 195,000
11/17 - Tues.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/18 - Wed.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 185,000
11/19 - Thur.: ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 120,000
11/20 - Fri.: ¥240,000,000 ($2.3 million) / 170,000
11/21 - Sat.: ¥439,606,550 ($4.2 million) / 314,726
11/22 - Sun.: ¥592,738,550 ($5.7 million) / 433,315
11/23 - Mon.: ¥460,110,250 ($4.4 million) / 357,741 *Holiday*
11/24 - Tues.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) / 90,000
11/25 - Wed.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 120,000
11/26 - Thur.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.1 million) / 85,000
11/27 - Fri.: ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million) / 130,000
11/28 - Sat.: ¥556,443,300 ($5.3 million) / 392,017
11/29 - Sun: ¥448,060,450 ($4.3 million) / 320,031
11/30 - Mon.: ¥140,000,000 ($1.3 million) / 105,000
12/01 - Tues.: ¥170,000,000 ($1.6 million) / 145,000 *Discount Day*
12/02 - Wed.: ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million) /100,000
12/03 - Thur.: ¥x95,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x70,000
12/04 - Fri.: ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million) / 105,000
12/05 - Sat.: ¥319,013,550 ($3.1 million) / 225,976
12/06 - Sun.: ¥336,505,700 ($3.2 million) / 239,874
12/07 - Mon.: ¥100,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000
12/08 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x55,000
12/09 - Wed.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x90,000
12/10 - Thur.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000
12/11 - Fri.: ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x80,000
12/12 - Sat.: ¥588,408,200 ($5.7 million) / 407,286
12/13 - Sun.: ¥351,003,000 ($3.4 million) / 248,024
12/14 - Mon.: ¥120,000,000 ($1.2 million) / x85,000
12/15 - Tues.: ¥x85,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x60,000
12/16 - Wed.: ¥110,000,000 ($1.1 million) / x85,000
12/17 - Thur.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000
12/18 - Fri.: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x65,000
12/19 - Sat.: ¥187,788,050 ($1.8 million) / 133,068
12/20 - Sun.: ¥202,627,400 ($2.0 million) / 148,780
12/21 - Mon.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x55,000
12/22 - Tues.: ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million) / x45,000
12/23 - Wed.: ¥x90,000,000 ($0.9 million) / x65,000
12/24 - Thur.: ¥x70,000,000 ($0.7 million) / x50,000
12/25 - Fri.: ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million) / x75,000
12/26 - Sat.: ¥554,583,650 ($5.3 million) / 355,697
12/27 - Sun.: ¥353,034,550 ($3.4 million) / 219,946
12/28 - Mon.: ¥290,000,000 ($2.8 million) / 190,000
12/29 - Tues.: ¥325,000,000 ($3.2 million) / 205,000
12/30 - Wed.: ¥335,000,000 ($3.3 million) / 240,000
12/31 - Thur.: ¥210,000,000 ($2.0 million) / 135,000
01/01 - Fri.: ¥320,000,000 ($3.1 million) / 230,000 *Holiday, Discount Day*
01/02 - Sat.: ¥351,200,000 ($3.4 million) / 220,150 *Bank Holiday*
01/03 - Sun.: ¥326,800,000 ($3.2 million) / 204,850 *Bank Holiday*
01/04 - Mon.: ¥275,000,000 ($2.6 million) / 180,000 *Post-Holiday Boosted*
01/05 - Tues.: ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million) / 100,000
01/06 - Wed.: ¥135,000,000 ($1.3 million) / x95,000
01/07 - Thur.: ¥x80,000,000 ($0.8 million) / x50,000
01/08 - Fri.: ¥x65,000,000 ($0.6 million) / x40,000
01/09 - Sat.: ¥125,790,000 ($1.2 million) / x75,600
01/10 - Sun.: ¥173,710,000 ($1.7 million) / 104,400
01/11 - Mon.: ¥132,804,950 ($1.3 million) / x84,300 *Holiday*
01/12 - Tues.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000
01/13 - Wed.: ¥x45,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x30,000
01/14 - Thur.: ¥x45,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000
01/15 - Fri.: ¥x50,000,000 ($0.5 million) / x30,000
01/16 - Sat.: ¥x95,550,000 ($0.9 million) / x57,810
01/17 - Sun.: ¥107,750,000 ($1.0 million) / x65,190
01/18 - Mon.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x23,000
01/19 - Tues.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x20,000
01/20 - Wed.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x27,000
01/21 - Thur.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x20,000
01/22 - Fri.: ¥x40,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x25,000
01/23 - Sat.: ¥x87,960,400 ($0.8 million) / x53,648
01/24 - Sun.: ¥x95,673,000 ($0.9 million) / x58,352
01/25 - Mon.: ¥x33,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x21,000
01/26 - Tues.: ¥x29,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x18,000
01/27 - Wed.: ¥x38,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x26,000
01/28 - Thur.: ¥x30,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x19,000
01/29 - Fri.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x21,000
01/30 - Sat.: ¥x78,544,500 ($0.7 million) / x48,829
01/31 - Sun.: ¥x90,219,600 ($0.9 million) / x56,171
02/01 - Mon.: ¥x36,000,000 ($0.4 million) / x28,000 *Discount Day*
02/02 - Tues.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x16,000
02/03 - Wed.: ¥x34,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x24,000
02/04 - Thur.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x16,000
02/05 - Fri.: ¥x28,000,000 ($0.3 million) / x17,000
02/06 - Sat.: ¥x67,883,790 ($0.6 million) / x42,974
02/07 - Sun.: ¥x77,443,410 ($0.7 million) / x49,026
02/08 - Mon.: ¥x25,000,000 ($0.24 million) / x16,000
02/09 - Tues.: ¥x23,000,000 ($0.22 million) / x14,000
02/10 - Wed.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.34 million) / x25,000
02/11 - Thur.: ¥x75,000,000 ($0.72 million) / x47,000 *Holiday*
02/12 - Fri.: ¥x32,000,000 ($0.31 million) / x20,000
02/13 - Sat.: ¥x54,533,337 ($0.52 million) / x34,746
02/14 - Sun.: ¥x66,316,163 ($0.63 million) / x42,254
02/15 - Mon.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.26 million) / x17,000
02/16 - Tues.: ¥x25,000,000 ($0.24 million) / x16,000
02/17 - Wed.: ¥x33,000,000 ($0.31 million) / x23,000
02/18 - Thur.: ¥x24,000,000 ($0.23 million) / x15,000
02/19 - Fri.: ¥x28,000,000 ($0.27 million) / x17,000
02/20 - Sat.: ¥x73,694,892 ($0.69 million) / x46,455
02/21 - Sun.: ¥x77,010,408 ($0.73 million) / x48,545
02/22 - Mon.: ¥x41,000,000 ($0.39 million) / x27,000 *Pre-Holiday Boosted*
02/23 - Tues.: ¥x87,000,000 ($0.83 million) / x55,000 *Holiday*
02/24 - Wed.: ¥x29,000,000 ($0.28 million) / x21,000
02/25 - Thur.: ¥x23,000,000 ($0.22 million) / x15,000
02/26 - Fri.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.25 million) / x17,000
02/27 - Sat.: ¥x72,622,137 ($0.68 million) / x46,660
02/28 - Sun.: ¥x83,018,963 ($0.78 million) / x53,340
03/01 - Mon.: ¥x29,000,000 ($0.26 million) / x22,000 *Discount Day*
03/02 - Tues.: ¥x24,000,000 ($0.22 million) / x15,000
03/03 - Wed.: ¥x31,000,000 ($0.28 million) / x22,000
03/04 - Thur.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.25 million) / x16,000
03/05 - Fri.: ¥x31,000,000 ($0.28 million) / x19,000
03/06 - Sat.: ¥68,704,711 ($0.63 million) / x40,982
03/07 - Sun.: ¥93,909,989 ($0.86 million) / x56,018
03/08 - Mon.: ¥16,000,000 ($0.15 million) / x12,000
03/09 - Tues.: ¥13,000,000 ($0.12 million) / x10,000
03/10 - Wed.: ¥18,000,000 ($0.17 million) / x15,000
03/11 - Thur.: ¥14,000,000 ($0.13 million) / x11,000
03/12 - Fri.: ¥18,000,000 ($0.17 million) / x13,000
03/13 - Sat.: ¥39,715,728 ($0.36 million) / x27,895
03/14 - Sun: ¥47,132,572 ($0.43 million) / x33,105
03/15 - Mon.: ¥16,000,000 ($0.15 million) / x12,000
03/16 - Tues.: ¥14,000,000 ($0.13 million) / x10,000
03/17 - Wed.: ¥20,000,000 ($0.18 million) / x16,000
03/18 - Thur.: ¥14,000,000 ($0.13 million) / x10,000
03/19 - Fri.: ¥22,000,000 ($0.20 million) / x16,000
03/20 - Sat.: ¥41,374,000 ($0.38 million) / x29,000
03/21 - Sun.: ¥41,374,000 ($0.38 million) / x29,000
03/22 - Mon.: ¥14,000,000 ($0.13 million) / x10,000
03/23 - Tues.: ¥13,000,000 ($0.12 million) / x9,000
03/24 - Wed.: ¥19,000,000 ($0.17 million) / x15,000
03/25 - Thur.: ¥16,000,000 ($0.15 million) / x12,000
03/26 - Fri.: ¥25,000,000 ($0.23 million) / x18,000
03/27 - Sat.: ¥x98,147,463 ($0.90 million) / x64,646
03/28 - Sun.: ¥x71,893,187 ($0.66 million) / x47,354
03/29 - Mon.: ¥x35,000,000 ($0.32 million) / x24,000 *est.*
03/30 - Tues.: ¥x33,000,000 ($0.30 million) / x22,000 *est.*
03/31 - Wed.: ¥x41,000,000 ($0.37 million) / x29,000 *est.*
04/01 - Thur.: ¥x34,000,000 ($0.31 million) / x25,000 *est.*
04/02 - Fri.: ¥x27,000,000 ($0.24 million) / x18,000 *est.*


169-Day Cumulative Total: ¥39,208,746,700 ($374.98 million) / 28,419,381 Admissions

Note: Mon.-Fri. are rounded estimates (excluding Holiday Mondays), therefore adding up each day won't equal the exact actual total.

Less than ¥800 million to go now! And get ready for a big upcoming weekend (biggest reason Friday "only" remained even/slightly increased versus last week). I'll share where it stands at the theaters I check in a bit.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:59 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021 Daily Ests.
ARQandARG wrote:
Wait, did I messed the math or Loved Like a Flower Bouquet achieved a multiplier of x18.1, entering the top-10 of Best Multipliers?
Anyhow, great run for the film.


Indeed. It's having an absolutely incredible run, and it's not really due to lack of competition. Lack of direct competition (as a romance film), sure, but it's not like the market is weak or anything; it's largely back to normal and has been for over 6 months now. Plenty of films are being released, excluding Hollywood releases, and many of those releases are meeting/exceeding expectations. A lot of films have been breaking franchise records and/or an array of all sorts of records for half a year now.

I'll add it to the multiplier list following this weekend's results.

It also became Tokyo Theater Co.'s highest grossing film ever several weeks ago.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021 Daily Ests.
somekindofthing wrote:
KNYtracker777 wrote:
As for the BD sales,i think it'll sell atleast a million (likely a lot more),this is just a guess but looking at the BD ranking sites here

The art of anime DVD/BD sales prediction is a tricky one. The site everyone used to look to for this sort of thing was Amazon Ranking Stalker, which shut down a few years ago and has been replaced by a site called Pripri. Both of these sites use similar methodologies that award a certain number of "points" (1 point = 1 predicted first week disc sale, as reported by Oricon) based on the average daily ranking at Amazon Japan.

The results are usually decent for ballparking first week sales of TV series. There are factors that can throw it off, but if those factors are absent, it can get close. E.g. if it predicts ~4,000 units sold, final sales will probably be in the 3-5k range or so.

But it mostly falls apart for releases that spend a lot of time at #1. You can use historical data to know roughly how much ranking #1250 or #285 or #6733 is worth, but #1 has an unknown upper bound problem. Typically ranking #1 is worth about 2,400 points a day for a BD (iirc) on the prediction sites. But "#1" could actually mean 1,000... or 100,000, for all we know.

There's a mountain of minutiae we cold go into about how these prediction systems work, but suffice to say they were built for TV series selling hundreds, thousands, or at most a couple tens of thousands of discs. Their methods aren't able to handle hundreds of thousands, let alone millions.

I bring all this up because it's literally the only tool we've ever had to predict disc sales, and it just doesn't work for something like Kimetsu (or any really major anime film). So there's just no way to make an informed prediction here.

Regarding looking at its ranking at various video retailers... as hinted above with the Amazon issue, you have to consider that it's all relative. Even if Kimetsu debuted at a "mere" 200k first week (say 125k BDs and 75k DVDs, a number most people here would probably view as "shockingly disappointing"), that'd still be more than enough for it to sweep the top of almost every video retailer's charts almost every day until release. After all, in any given week the best-ranking things we see on the DVD and BD charts usually debut under 10k. Any six figure release or higher is an NFL linebacker in a kiddie pool.

Also consider that at the moment (and for the last few days), Kimetsu is being beaten at Amazon by a late night TV series about girls who are the spiritual reincarnations of famous Japanese race horses. Ume Musume is indeed going to sell extremely well for a TV series, but we're talking a few tens of thousands at the absolute most. Obviously I think Kimetsu is going to sell far more than Uma Musume in reality, but it's an example of how weirdly volatile retailer rankings can be and why they need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.

In short, the way you'd see Kimetsu rank on retailer charts for a 100k debut is more or less identical to what you'd see if pulled off a 1 million debut or a 10 million debut (10m is a joke, to be clear). This doesn't mean it can't debut with seven figures, it just means that retailer rankings can't help us differentiate between any of those scenarios.

(Now, if Kimetsu weren't dominating the rankings that could be a pretty strong hint it's going to profoundly underperform, so I guess they can be useful that way. But it's unlikely it's going to come in that far below expectations, which is why I'm only focusing on the upper bound problem here. We can be pretty sure it's at least going to be a NFL linebacker in that kiddie pool, but the real question everyone wants answered if is if it's going to be a thousand foot tall giant or not.)


I see, thank you for the very informative reply!


Fri Apr 02, 2021 11:27 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021 Daily Ests.
And that concludes Spring Break 2021! This upcoming weekend should be quite good too, as the last weekend of a holiday period is generally stronger than normal from people going out before school/work continues back on Monday. April is the start of the school year in Japan.

Not as lucrative as most past Spring Break weeks, largely due to no really big film targeting children in release this March. That's almost always been Doraemon for the past 40 years and often a major Disney animated film in the last decade or so, but Doraemon got delayed and Disney unnecessarily dumped Raya and the Last Dragon, so this year missed out on both of them.

That said, the films that were able to still benefit somewhat from the demographics that come out over Spring Break did what they could. Friday is noticeably lower across the board since last Friday technically started Spring Break, so last Friday was already stronger than normal. This was especially clear with Demon Slayer (even if it was the only film to increase, very impressive) since a lot of business has been bumped to the weekend due to the sixth and final giveaway event. Just check my post above to look at how well its reservations were going almost 24 hours in advance.

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021
Spring Break 2021 Daily Estimates (03/28-04/02)

Monday (03/29)
¥115 million ($1.05 million), -07%, ¥6.19 billion ($56.8 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) Day 22
¥57 million ($520,000), NEW, ¥415 million ($3.8 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) Day 4
¥35 million ($319,000), +163%, ¥39.07 billion ($373.8 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) Day 165
¥29 million ($265,000), +38%, ¥434 million ($4.0 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) Day 11
¥27 million ($246,000), -38%, ¥663 million ($6.0 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) Day 11
¥26 million ($237,000), NEW, ¥185 million ($1.7 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) Day 5
¥18 million ($164,000), -26%, ¥3.42 billion ($33.1 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters Co.) Day 60
¥15 million ($137,000), NEW, ¥180 million ($1.6 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) Day 4
¥14 million ($128,000), -30%, ¥636 million ($5.8 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) Day 18
¥13 million ($119,000), +08%, ¥263 million ($2.4 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) Day 10


Tuesday (03/30)
¥100 million ($909,000), -04%, ¥6.29 billion ($57.7 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) Day 23
¥47 million ($427,000), NEW, ¥462 million ($4.2 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) Day 5
¥33 million ($300,000), +159%, ¥39.11 billion ($374.1 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) Day 166
¥27 million ($245,000), +42%, ¥461 million ($4.2 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) Day 12
¥26 million ($236,000), -28%, ¥689 million ($6.3 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) Day 12
¥24 million ($218,000), NEW, ¥209 million ($1.9 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) Day 5
¥17 million ($155,000), -20%, ¥3.44 billion ($33.2 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters Co.) Day 61
¥14 million ($127,000), -16%, ¥650 million ($5.9 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) Day 19
¥12 million ($109,000), NEW, ¥192 million ($1.7 million), Girls und Panzer the Finale - Part 3 (Showgate) Day 5
¥10 million ($x91,000), +17%, ¥273 million ($ 2.5million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) Day 11


Wednesday (03/31)
¥100 million ($903,000), -17%, ¥6.39 billion ($58.6 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) Day 24
¥45 million ($407,000), NEW, ¥507 million ($4.6 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) Day 6
¥41 million ($370,000), +113%, ¥39.15 billion ($374.4 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) Day 167
¥35 million ($316,000), +14%, ¥496 million ($4.5 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) Day 13
¥32 million ($289,000), -35%, ¥721 million ($6.6 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) Day 13
¥25 million ($226,000), NEW, ¥234 million ($2.1 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) Day 6
¥19 million ($172,000), -24%, ¥3.46 billion ($33.4 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters Co.) Day 62
¥17 million ($154,000), -27%, ¥667 million ($6.0 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) Day 20
¥15 million ($136,000), +19%, ¥288 million ($2.6 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) Day 12
¥10 million ($x90,000), NEW, ¥x80 million ($0.7 million), Nomadland (Disney) Day 6


Thursday (04/01)
¥95 million ($858,000), +06%, ¥6.49 billion ($59.5 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) Day 25
¥44 million ($397,000), NEW, ¥551 million ($5.0 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) Day 7
¥34 million ($307,000), +137%, ¥39.18 billion ($374.7 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) Day 168
¥32 million ($289,000), +36%, ¥528 million ($4.8 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) Day 14
¥29 million ($262,000), -11%, ¥750 million ($6.9 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) Day 14
¥23 million ($208,000), NEW, ¥257 million ($2.3 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) Day 7
¥17 million ($154,000), -12%, ¥3.47 billion ($33.5 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters Co.) Day 63
¥16 million ($144,000), -04%, ¥683 million ($6.2 million), Brave: Gunjyo Senki (Toho) Day 21
¥12 million ($108,000), +44%, ¥300 million ($2.7 million), Healin Good Pretty Cure: GoGo! Big Transformation! Town of Dreams (Toei) Day 13
¥11 million ($x99,000), NEW, ¥x91 million ($0.8 million), Nomadland (Disney) Day 7


Friday (04/02)
¥80 million ($722,000), -32%, ¥6.57 billion ($60.2 million), Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (Toho/Toei/Khara) Day 26
¥50 million ($451,000), NEW, ¥x50 million ($0.5 million), Signal: The Movie (Toho) Day 1
¥33 million ($298,000), -68%, ¥584 million ($5.3 million), Monster Hunter (Toho-Towa) Day 8
¥27 million ($244,000), +02%, ¥39.21 billion ($375.0 million), Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (Toho/Aniplex) Day 169
¥22 million ($199,000), -13%, ¥550 million ($5.0 million), Tom & Jerry (Warner Bros.) Day 15
¥19 million ($171,000), -40%, ¥769 million ($7.0 million), Caution, Hazardous Wife: The Movie (Toho) Day 15
¥15 million ($135,000), -61%, ¥272 million ($2.5 million), Kiba: The Fangs of Fiction (Shochiku) Day 8
¥13 million ($117,000), NEW, ¥x13 million ($0.1 million), Ensemble Stars!! Music Garden Delay Viewing (Toho) Day 1
¥12 million ($108,000), -37%, ¥3.48 billion ($33.6 million), Loved Like a Flower Bouquet (Tokyo Theaters Co.) Day 64


Note: Percentage changes versus same-day last week in admissions.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:59 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021 Daily Ests.
KNYtracker777 wrote:
As for the BD sales,i think it'll sell atleast a million (likely a lot more),this is just a guess but looking at the BD ranking sites here

The art of anime DVD/BD sales prediction is a tricky one. The site everyone used to look to for this sort of thing was Amazon Ranking Stalker, which shut down a few years ago and has been replaced by a site called Pripri. Both of these sites use similar methodologies that award a certain number of "points" (1 point = 1 predicted first week disc sale, as reported by Oricon) based on the average daily ranking at Amazon Japan.

The results are usually decent for ballparking first week sales of TV series. There are factors that can throw it off, but if those factors are absent, it can get close. E.g. if it predicts ~4,000 units sold, final sales will probably be in the 3-5k range or so.

But it mostly falls apart for releases that spend a lot of time at #1. You can use historical data to know roughly how much ranking #1250 or #285 or #6733 is worth, but #1 has an unknown upper bound problem. Typically ranking #1 is worth about 2,400 points a day for a BD (iirc) on the prediction sites. But "#1" could actually mean 1,000... or 100,000, for all we know.

There's a mountain of minutiae we cold go into about how these prediction systems work, but suffice to say they were built for TV series selling hundreds, thousands, or at most a couple tens of thousands of discs. Their methods aren't able to handle hundreds of thousands, let alone millions.

I bring all this up because it's literally the only tool we've ever had to predict disc sales, and it just doesn't work for something like Kimetsu (or any really major anime film). So there's just no way to make an informed prediction here.

Regarding looking at its ranking at various video retailers... as hinted above with the Amazon issue, you have to consider that it's all relative. Even if Kimetsu debuted at a "mere" 200k first week (say 125k BDs and 75k DVDs, a number most people here would probably view as "shockingly disappointing"), that'd still be more than enough for it to sweep the top of almost every video retailer's charts almost every day until release. After all, in any given week the best-ranking things we see on the DVD and BD charts usually debut under 10k. Any six figure release or higher is an NFL linebacker in a kiddie pool.

Also consider that at the moment (and for the last few days), Kimetsu is being beaten at Amazon by a late night TV series about girls who are the spiritual reincarnations of famous Japanese race horses. Ume Musume is indeed going to sell extremely well for a TV series, but we're talking a few tens of thousands at the absolute most. Obviously I think Kimetsu is going to sell far more than Uma Musume in reality, but it's an example of how weirdly volatile retailer rankings can be and why they need to be taken with a huge grain of salt.

In short, the way you'd see Kimetsu rank on retailer charts for a 100k debut is more or less identical to what you'd see if pulled off a 1 million debut or a 10 million debut (10m is a joke, to be clear). This doesn't mean it can't debut with seven figures, it just means that retailer rankings can't help us differentiate between any of those scenarios.

(Now, if Kimetsu weren't dominating the rankings that could be a pretty strong hint it's going to profoundly underperform, so I guess they can be useful that way. But it's unlikely it's going to come in that far below expectations, which is why I'm only focusing on the upper bound problem here. We can be pretty sure it's at least going to be a NFL linebacker in that kiddie pool, but the real question everyone wants answered if is if it's going to be a thousand foot tall giant or not.)


Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:52 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021 Daily Ests.
KNYtracker777 wrote:
i've been fascinated with Kimetsu popularity and the records it broke. Thanks corpse for your updates & analysis. lurkers (such as me,but i broke it for a bit :) ) and members alike heavily appreciate it

As for the BD sales,i think it'll sell atleast a million (likely a lot more),this is just a guess but looking at the BD ranking sites here

http://shop.tsutaya.co.jp/dvd/rank.html?rankingId=4

it holds top 5 despite releasing in june,i think (and correct me if im wrong) most BD sales get higher in the list when they get closer to date (a month or so in) not 3 months! before.

its also ranking pretty highly in animate (pretty big shop in japan) holding 3 out of the top 5 sells and all the top 5 in video ranking
https://www.animate-onlineshop.jp/ranking/?s=3

and also amazon
https://www.amazon.co.jp/-/en/gp/bestse ... ef_=sv_d_3

all of these are the online ones i know of,ufotable doesn't show numbers but it crashed so we know there's pretty big wave there too.

I expect heavy numbers at this rate. but for box office im unsure if it will be top grossing for 2020. since covid restrictions in USA&EU and china is not looking to release it anytime soon.


Thank you for the kind words, and thanks for deciding to join!

I've had little doubt it's going to challenge the home video records. I understand it's obviously very difficult (and that's an understatement) in this day and age, but there has been little reason to doubt this franchise with anything it does. The rankings you've shared suggest, to me, it's at the very least in contention to do it.

somekindofthing shares a lot of details regarding the home video market and can likely answer some of your questions.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:49 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021 Daily Ests.
Saturday is going to be quite huge for Demon Slayer. It's far outpacing last week which was already up over 100% over its prior week.

List of theaters I regularly check:

Toho Cinemas:
Shinjuku - 4/4 [2 Sold Out, 1 80% Full, 1 50% Full]
Umeda - 1/4 [1 50% Full]
Namba - 5/5 [3 Sold Out, 2 80% Full]
Ikebukuro - 2/3 [2 50% Full]
Sendai - 1/3 [1 50% Full]
Nihonbashi - 2/4 [2 50% Full]
Roppongi - 2/2 [1 Sold Out, 1 50% Full]
Kinshicho - 0/3 [See Note Below]*
Ebina - 4/6 [1 Sold Out, 2 80% full, 1 50% Full]
Kawasaki - 3/4 [2 Sold Out, 1 80% Full]
Nishinomiya - 2/5 [1 80% Full, 1 50% Full]
Kochi - 2/3 [1 80% Full, 1 50% Full]
Akita - 1/3 [1 50% Full]

*While none of the shows here are at/above 50% yet, it's on their largest screen and is close.

Movix Cinemas:
Shinjuku - 2/2 [1 Sold Out, 1 50% Full]
Saitama - 3/3 [3 Sold Out]
Miyoshi - 1/3 [1 80% Full]
Kyoto - 1/4 [1 80% Full]
Yao - 2/4 [2 50% Full]

Other:
Shinjuku Wald 9 - 2/4 [1 80% Full, 1 50% Full]
Hiroshima Wald 11 - 3/4 [ 1 80% Full, 2 50% Full]
T-Joy Yokohama - 2/4 [1 80% Full, 1 50% Full]
T-Joy Prince Shinagawa - 2/6 [2 50% Full]
Yokohama Burg 13 - 2/4 [2 80% Full]
Umeda Burg 7 - 2/3 [1 80% Full, 1 50% Full]
Cinecitta - 2/4 [2 50% Full]

Overall: 53/94 [13 -Sold Out, 15 -80% Full, 24 - 50% Full] with ~22 hours before open.


This is a lot stronger than last Saturday. Last Saturday was already great, up well over 100% as mentioned, and while I'm NOT going to make any predictions ahead of the weekend, this will easily best last Saturday (and last weekend) by a very comfortable margin. Some of the theaters under booked it, too, so while Sunday will see a noticeable drop-off like it has every giveaway weekend, it will probably be a lot less than normal from spill over as it's going to sell out (or nearly so) for the whole day at some of them. Movix Saitama has been 100% full since yesterday, and a handful of others are likely to reach 100% (or nearly so) before open tomorrow.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:33 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021 Daily Ests.
i've been fascinated with Kimetsu popularity and the records it broke. Thanks corpse for your updates & analysis. lurkers (such as me,but i broke it for a bit :) ) and members alike heavily appreciate it

As for the BD sales,i think it'll sell atleast a million (likely a lot more),this is just a guess but looking at the BD ranking sites here

http://shop.tsutaya.co.jp/dvd/rank.html?rankingId=4

it holds top 5 despite releasing in june,i think (and correct me if im wrong) most BD sales get higher in the list when they get closer to date (a month or so in) not 3 months! before.

its also ranking pretty highly in animate (pretty big shop in japan) holding 3 out of the top 5 sells and all the top 5 in video ranking
https://www.animate-onlineshop.jp/ranking/?s=3

and also amazon
https://www.amazon.co.jp/-/en/gp/bestse ... ef_=sv_d_3

all of these are the online ones i know of,ufotable doesn't show numbers but it crashed so we know there's pretty big wave there too.

I expect heavy numbers at this rate. but for box office im unsure if it will be top grossing for 2020. since covid restrictions in USA&EU and china is not looking to release it anytime soon.


Last edited by KNYtracker777 on Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:30 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021 Daily Ests.
Detective Conan had indeed grown huge those last few movies and with this delay I'm sure there is a good penny up demand. Plus with DS slowing down its time for something new to break out.


Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:14 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021 Daily Ests.
Wait, did I messed the math or Loved Like a Flower Bouquet achieved a multiplier of x18.1, entering the top-10 of Best Multipliers?
Anyhow, great run for the film.

Actually, lot of interesting runs this year.
And I'm sure Detective Conan's will also be amazing, not only a great opening but also good holds to be the highest grosser in the franchise.


Thu Apr 01, 2021 4:37 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: Spring Break 2021 Daily Ests.
A lot. :P

I imagine it'll continue the upward trend of the franchise (the last 6 or 7 films have all improved upon the last film's opening weekend and total), but the uptick this time will probably be higher than the previous couple films since it's receiving the highest theater count ever in the market (due to opening simultaneously on all premium formats versus the gradual expansion process), and really only has part one of the Rurouni Kenshin finale as major competition for the largest screens/number of showings now that Black Widow was unnecessarily moved out of Golden Week (BW's full first week was literally all of Golden Week...).

I would be a bit concerned that its opening might not reach the levels of the past two films since many theaters are still closing before 8pm (and I doubt this restriction goes away anytime soon), but since it'll be receiving far more seats as a result of more theaters and in turn more showings (and less competition than normal), it should be capable of either matching or surpassing their debuts. Theaters will probably open at 6/7AM for its opening weekend too (like they did for Evangelion) which will help counter closing earlier.

Expecting a debut around ¥1.5 billion / 1 million+ admissions and a total that should either approach or maybe hit ¥10 billion (it'd be the first in the series to reach that milestone if it does). But it *could* go higher (the opening especially). The full-year delay after opening in April for 20+ consecutive years might have created more hype for this one, but we'll have to wait and see what happens there. Toho also released the compilation anime film (featuring scenes and characters from the anime that will be relevant to the new film) that's been playing for almost 2 months now (and became the first ever compilation film to gross over ¥1 billion) to further boost interest in the upcoming new film too.

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“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“Don't forget to smile in any situation. As long as you are alive, there will be better things later, and there will be many.”


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