Very strong start to begin the day. That should be enough to get it above 250,000 for the day, though I'd be surprised if it comes in under 275,000.

As mentioned, no other superhero film has performed at this level (besides the original Spider-Man trilogy), so it's difficult to find a good comparison. If I had to pick a film on the list that it could perform similarly throughout the day, it might be one of the Star Wars films (namely Episode VII due to their shared event status), but I don't think they're ideal comparisons either.

Very, very strong pre-sales figure. Just because it's not near the top in pre-sales, doesn't mean it won't match or exceed some of the films above it over the weekend.

For comparison, its pre-sale figure of 92,116 is 63% above Infinity War's 56,665. If it follows a similar weekend trajectory as its predecessor from here, it'd get over 700,000 admissions (712,000 if exact) over the weekend. But I expect it to come in closer to, or even above, 800,000 admissions due to the strong likelihood of a significant Sunday increase since it's the weekend before Golden Week kicks off.

Before I post the pre-sales here very soon, one quick observation: Endgame is playing well above 50% capacity in the urban prefectures, perhaps as high as 60-65% of its available tickets have already been sold in these areas before the first showtimes even begin. However, it's playing noticeably weaker in the rural prefectures, even more so than big Hollywood releases typically perform.

Of course, an overwhelming 80/85% of box-office receipts come from urban areas, so that's where you obviously want to be overperforming. That said, weak ticket sales in rural areas can keep a certain threshold from being achievable.

Yeah, I'm not going to take the time to actually compare it to the Friday numbers for past films. Friday isn't part of the weekend in Japan, it's just a regular weekday, so it's difficult to accurately compare films on Fridays unless they're from the same franchise or a very comparable genre due to how drastically different films can perform on weekdays.

Yes, I mean the traditional 2-day opening weekends.

It should definitely challenge the openings of the original Spider-Man trilogy, which is absolutely incredible. No Marvel/DC film has ever been able to compare to them before now. I actually think it'll top Spider-Man 2's debut; Spider-Man 1 and 3 will be more challenging, but it's possible.

Fantastic!

I knew it was huge, but didn't know how it quite compared to other Fridays since they're not as easily documented.

And when you say 90% of every M/DC you mean 2-day correct?

What do you see as the absolute upper bound for the 2 day? Is Raimi a possibility?

That's the likely range, and very huge. It's far and away the biggest Friday take since at least Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2, and it's about on par with it. The Friday number alone is bigger than 90% (actual percent!) of the opening weekends for every Marvel/DC film.

A ¥1 billion+ opening weekend is as close to a guarantee as you can get now. I'll post its pre-sales (as long as they're above 80,000, which is very likely) for Saturday later this evening compared to other major openers in recent years. And then I'll be posting the hourly ticket sales for it this weekend as well to compare it to all the major openers in recent years.

Thanks for the explanation. I think the popularity of an amendment or leaning towards militarism will gradually increase with an expansionist China and a weakening Japan-US tie.

Based on the data provided, thinking around ¥540-580m for the Opening Day

Very, very early into the day, and Friday business doesn't always determine how business is over the weekend, but Endgame is looking huge so far.

Its early morning Friday admissions are about double those of Infinity War. Again, it's early, but a ¥1 billion+ debut over the weekend is looking good. It would be only the fourth Marvel/DC film to open above that mark (the first in 12 years), following the original Spider-Man trilogy of films.

Shinzo Abe has always faced a difficult battle in revising Japan's post-war constitution, and that's unlikely to change. While Emperor Akihito has regularly voiced opposition to Abe's vow to revise the constitution, and his son will likely share the same ideology when he becomes Emperor next week, his/their influence has little/nothing to do with actually changing anything given the politics in Japan.

Abe's LDP has majority over both the Upper and Lower Houses, but amendments require a two-thirds vote from both houses. They have a 61% majority in the lower house, so they could likely get the two-thirds there, but it's much harder in the upper house given their 52% majority there. What further complicates this is that the NKP, another political party, is in a coalition with the LDP. The LDP currently relies on the NKP's support to maintain its firm majority (offering voter support in exchange for not running candidates in desired districts), and the NKP oppose the specific Article 9 (peace-clause) being amended. They might come to an agreement to allow stronger defense or something via an amendment, but it'd largely be a wasted effort if Article 9 is left unchanged.

And then following any unlikely vote that gets through both houses on a two-thirds majority, there's a national referendum. A referendum only requires a simple majority, but polls show the Japanese people are largely against any constitutional revisions, citing "unnecessary reasons" when asked, and generally no more than 30% support any changes. A referendum on Article 9 would probably end up being a ~60/40 vote in opposition of revision.

In the 70+ year history of the post-war constitution, no amendment has ever occurred.

Given its event/finale status, moviegoers will be more inclined to spend the extra money on premium formats. It'll probably come in close to ¥1,600 ($14/15).

What will be Endgame most likely average ticket price be in Yen and USD?

It's going to be big. As long as it doesn't burn off too much demand on Friday, it could reach ¥1 billion over the weekend frame. And as you probably know, the only superhero films to open above that mark (or even come close) has been the original Spider-Man trilogy.

If you're comparing their Fridays, though, Endgame will be much bigger than Detective Conan on that same day. Live-action films, especially big Hollywood imports, play very well on the weekdays. Detective Conan plays fine on weekdays (which includes Fridays) compared to most other animated films, but it's still a weekend-friendly series.

Endgame is also playing on a large variety of screens due to its various premium format showings, dub and sub screenings, etc., so a large number of them are either average sized auditoriums or smaller, which sellout much faster naturally, to accommodate all the different types of showings.

Last I read the current emperor would step down March 31. So there had been a one-month delay.

I hope Japan remains a strong peaceful agent in the region.

Looking around Toho's website, I'm seeing many more sellouts for Endgame than I did for Conan. Now obviously it won't outgross Conan, but just how crazy of a number are we going to see here?

It would be impressive if Endgame managed to open above ¥1 billion.

Endgame will certainly be big. I have little doubt about that. It's very likely to achieve the biggest opening weekend for a Marvel/DC film outside of the original Spider-Man trilogy, and it could even approach them (in revenue, not admissions).

It's just that most of the biggest openers in the market have an unfair advantage of having previews (sometimes a week's worth) included in their openings, when previews have been excluded from opening weekends for ten years now. Previews/early-showings aren't even a thing in the market any longer besides on a very limited scale for very few releases. This is why I made a separate list I call "Biggest Modern Opening Weekends" that charts opening weekends from 2008 onward.

Here it is below. Next to their "Modern" rank, in parenthesis, you can see how each film ranks on the "All-Time" chart:

Biggest Modern Opening Weekends (2008-) [REVENUE]
Modern Rank (All-Time Rank)
01 (09) ¥1,628,893,000 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (Dec., 2014)
02 (16) ¥1,463,827,700 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019)
03 (18) ¥1,372,054,050 - One Piece Film Z (Dec., 2012)
04 (20) ¥1,316,539,200 - Alice in Wonderland (Apr., 2010)
05 (21) ¥1,301,851,375 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (July, 2011)
06 (22) ¥1,295,834,500 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
07 (23) ¥1,286,928,000 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)
08 (25) ¥1,245,023,900 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
09 (26) ¥1,225,913,932 - Rookies (May, 2009)
10 (27) ¥1,216,654,000 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
11 (28) ¥1,209,158,900 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)
12 (29) ¥1,205,116,126 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (May, 2011)
13 (31) ¥1,155,771,000 - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)
14 (32) ¥1,133,513,323 - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (Nov., 2012)
15 (33) ¥1,125,800,000 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
16 (34) ¥1,096,150,000 - Code Blue (July, 2018)
17 (35) ¥1,065,362,800 - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
18 (36) ¥1,057,808,800 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)
19 (37) ¥1,048,271,900 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)
20 (38) ¥1,038,295,232 - One Piece Film Strong World (Dec., 2009)
21 (40) ¥1,034,459,534 - Ponyo (July, 2008)
22 (42) ¥1,005,428,333 - Boys Over Flowers: Final (June, 2008)

Biggest Modern Opening Weekends (2008-) [ADMISSIONS]
Modern Rank (All-Time Rank)
01 (02) 1,484,916 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (Dec., 2014)
02 (13) 1,144,539 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (Apr., 2019)
03 (14) 1,140,081 - One Piece Film Z (Dec., 2012)
04 (19) 1,012,000 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (Apr., 2018)
05 (20) 987,568 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (Apr., 2017)
06 (22) 987,387 - Rookies (May, 2009)
07 (23) 974,577 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Dec., 2015)
08 (24) 933,781 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Apr., 2016)
09 (28) 880,697 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (July, 2011)
10 (29) 833,190 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (July, 2018)
11 (30) 828,149 - Alice in Wonderland (Apr., 2010)
12 (31) 820,830 - One Piece Film Gold (July, 2016)
13 (32) 819,738 - One Piece Film Strong World (Dec., 2009)
14 (33) 812,557 - Ponyo (July, 2008)
15 (34) 810,918 - Code Blue (July, 2018)
16 (35) 805,350 - Boys Over Flowers: Final (June, 2008)
17 (36) 805,297 - Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (July, 2009)
18 (37) 800,258 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Dec., 2015)
19 (38) 773,184 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (May, 2011)
20 (39) 771,764 - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (Nov., 2012)
21 (40) 771,516 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (July, 2017)
22 (41) 766,633 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 1 (Nov., 2010)
23 (43) 747,451 - The Wind Rises (July, 2013)
24 (45) 737,467 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (Dec., 2017)
25 (46) 729,114 - Beauty and the Beast (Apr., 2017)
26 (48) 717,958 - Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (Sept., 2014)
27 (49) 716,629 - Doraemon: Nobita's Treasure Island (Mar., 2018)
28 (51) 715,727 - Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection F (Apr., 2015)
29 (52) 707,339 - Bayside Shakedown: Set the Guys Loose! (July, 2010)

*Modern = Post-Previews/Early Showings Era.

So despite Japan being unlikely to join the unprecedented event of the decade that is Endgame with huge numbers, it's decided to go one step further and have its own once-in-a-lifetime event!

Really excited to see what monstrosity of numbers come next week.

The Guardian has an informative article about Emperor Akihito's legacy and his upcoming abdication:

End of an era in Japan as emperor prepares to abdicate

Emperor Akihito will become first Japanese monarch to abdicate in more than 200 years

Emperor Akihito will abdicate on 30 April in favour of his son, the crown prince Naruhito. Photograph: Aflo/Rex/Shutterstock

The imperial palace grounds in central Tokyo are bathed in spring sunshine. Joggers completing circuits of the moat artfully dodge groups of foreign tourists. Office workers tuck into lunches of onigiri rice balls and tea.

On the other side of the moat, hidden behind lines of trees, the palace is preparing for a historical transition. Early in the evening of 30 April, Emperor Akihito will enter the building’s state room and, in the presence of the grand chamberlain, the prime minister and other senior politicians, become the first Japanese monarch to abdicate in more than 200 years.

At the end of a ceremony lasting just 10 minutes and steeped in the rituals of Shintoism, Japan’s indigenous religion, the Heisei era, which began with Akihito’s succession in January 1989, will come to an abrupt end.

Late the following morning, his eldest son, Naruhito, will enter the same room and inherit a sword, a jewel and a mirror – three “sacred treasures” said to have been bequeathed to the imperial line by the mythical sun goddess Amaterasu, and which serve as proof of his accession to the throne. In keeping with their mythological status, the regalia will remain hidden in boxes even when they are handed to the new emperor.

Shortly after, dressed in multiple layers of silk robes and a black headdress, the 126th occupant of the chrysanthemum throne will read a short statement setting the tone for his reign. The prime minister, Shinzō Abe, will welcome his accession on behalf of the Japanese people.

And so, over two simple ceremonies devoid of the public pageantry associated with western monarchies, the era of Reiwa – or beautiful harmony – will commence. Japan, though, will have to wait until the autumn to see its new Oxford-educated emperor being driven through the streets of Tokyo with the empress, Masako, in an open-top limousine.

There will be none of the sombre restraint that marked the death of Japan’s wartime emperor, Hirohito, and the start of the Heisei era three decades ago.

“There are various views on the merits of the emperor system, but the consensus seems to be to put any opposition to one side and receive the new emperor positively,” said Eiichi Miyashiro, an imperial family historian and senior staff writer for the Asahi Shimbun newspaper. “The last time we had a new emperor was because his father had died. But no one has died this time, so it’s perfectly fine for the Japanese people to celebrate.”

But they are also taking stock of Akihito’s 30-year reign, a time of economic uncertainty, demographic upheaval and a failure to come to terms with the legacy of the second world war.


The wedding of Prince Akihito and Princess Michiko in 1959. Photograph: STR/AFP/Getty Images


The wedding of Prince Naruhito and Princess Masako in 1993. Photograph: Jiji Press/EPA

Tessa Morris-Suzuki, professor emerita of Japanese history at the Australian National University, said Akihito would be remembered for his carefully choreographed attempts to heal the historical scars left by Japanese militarism in China and on the Korean peninsula in the name of his father.

“This reflects the fact that he grew up in the shadow of the war,” said Morris-Suzuki, adding that Akihito’s childhood tutor, Elizabeth Gray Vining, an American Quaker, left a lasting impression on the then crown prince.

Akihito’s reign was still in its infancy when he became the first Japanese monarch in modern times to visit China. Accompanied by Empress Michiko – a non-royal whom he met on a tennis court – his visit was opposed by rightwingers in Japan, while Chinese people demanded an apology for Japanese atrocities before and during the war.

Instead, Akihito navigated the potential diplomatic minefield while adhering to a postwar constitutional ban on any involvement in politics. He told his hosts that Japan had “inflicted great suffering on the people of China”, adding, “I deeply deplore this.” Two years earlier, he delivered a similar message in Tokyo to the then South Korean president, Roh Tae-woo, over Japan’s 1910-45 colonisation of the Korean peninsula.

Those remarks set the tone for the rest of his reign, with reconciliation at the heart of the imperial couple’s visits to theatres of the Pacific war: Okinawa, Saipan, Peleliu island in Palau and, as recently as 2016, the Philippines.

“Akihito’s visits to former battlegrounds and his comments about the war made a difference, though only a smallish one, as he was inevitably constrained by the constitutional limits of his position,” said Morris-Suzuki.

“I also think that he will be remembered for the way in which he did everything he could, again within the confines of his position, to defend the postwar constitution.”

While Hirohito’s wartime role continue to divide Japanese three decades after his death, his son “sought to turn a new page by atoning for the past deeds of the Japanese empire, while also groping for a new role as the emperor”, said Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University in Tokyo.

“As Japan’s politics shifted to the right after the end of the cold war, Akihito ended up becoming an unlikely liberal, pacifist voice and a committed defender of postwar values. In that sense he partially healed the historical wounds caused by the war.”

The postwar constitution bans Japan from using force to settle disputes and stripped Hirohito and all future Japanese emperors of their divine status, proclaiming them “the symbol of the state and the unity of the people”.

“The Heisei era is interesting because Japan learned what the emergence of a truly symbolic emperor looked like,” said Christopher Gerteis, a senior lecturer in contemporary Japanese history at London University’s School of Oriental and African Studies. “That process will continue under the next emperor, unless there are changes to the parts of the constitution that relate to the emperor. But that is probably not going to happen.”

In his first public utterance as emperor, Akihito vowed to work alongside the people to protect the constitution. In recent years, that has pitted him against conservative ideologues – notably Abe – who believe that an official adherence to pacifism, imposed by US occupation authorities, perpetuates “masochistic” feelings of guilt over Japan’s wartime conduct.

Akihito’s abdication will take place amid speculation that Abe is poised to begin his attempt to rewrite Japan’s supreme law so that it makes explicit mention of the country’s military, known as the self-defence forces.

At the end of last year, the 85-year-old emperor said he took “deep comfort” from the fact that Japan had not fought in wars during his time on the throne. But his reign is associated with national trauma of a different kind.

The state’s postwar contract with its citizens, practically guaranteeing lifetime employment, pay rises and promotions and a comfortable retirement, gave way to the “lost decades” of rising public debt and deflation, and the spiralling cost of health and welfare services in one of the world’s greyest societies.

People in their 20s and 30s “feel abandoned” by Japan, according to Gerteis. “Economic stagnation has hurt them immensely. It’s put them in a position where retirement is never really going to happen. They were robbed of the kind of affluent future that their parents experienced. They belong to a lost generation, and it’s not their fault.”

But if Japan’s collective memory of the Heisei era is marked by ambivalence, public affection for Akihito remains undiluted, despite pockets of opposition to the use of taxpayers’ money to pay for abdication and accession rituals dripping with religious significance.

“The emperor is no longer a ruler, but a symbol of the people,” said Miyashiro. “The current emperor has made that style his own. He doesn’t look down on ordinary people, but tries to see things from their perspective. You can see that in the way he and Empress Michiko talk to victims of natural disasters. People seem to have an affinity with that. That’s why they were sympathetic when he indicated in 2016 that he wanted to abdicate.”

Outside the palace grounds, 71-year-old Koichi Tanaka contemplated the imminent arrival of the third imperial era of his lifetime. “I was born just after the war, so I have strong memories of the previous emperor,” said Tanaka.

“The current emperor managed to modernise the imperial household, first by marrying someone from outside the imperial family, and then by creating a role for himself that was very different from that of his father. The Heisei era was neither here nor there for me as an individual, but the Heisei emperor is a remarkable man.”

SOURCE

A reminder about the unprecedented event that's about to occur in Japan:

The traditional Golden Week Holiday frame will begin on April 29th (Showa Day), as it always has, and will be followed with other national holidays on May 3rd (Constitution Day), May 4th (Greenery Day), and May 5th (Children's Day). Golden Week happens every year, to the surprise of no one who follows this thread, and is one of the three biggest weeks at the box-office along with New Year in January and Obon Festival in August.

However, this year's Golden Week Holiday frame is being expanded. On April 30th, Emperor Akihito is abdicating the chrysanthemum throne, and Crown Prince Naruhito will ascend the throne on May 1st. As a result of this, May 1st (typically not a holiday) will be a national holiday this year. And due to May 1st becoming a national holiday, April 30th and May 2nd (typically not holidays) also become national holidays because a day between two national holidays is then declared a holiday itself. And finally, May 6th (typically not a holiday) also becomes a national holiday because May 5th (a national holiday) falls on a Sunday, and when a holiday falls on a Sunday, the following Monday is declared a holiday!

So, this year's Golden Week is basically from April 27th (accounting for the weekend) through May 6th with NO regular days. This means there will be an unprecedented 10-day period, a consecutive 8-day holiday frame, where all schools and most workplaces are closed. New Year and Obon Festival, and a normal Golden Week, are all week-long holiday frames, however, each of them have regular days within that week where either school or workplaces are open.

Here is a look at each day coming up:

April 27th - Weekend
April 28th - Weekend
April 29th - Showa Day (National Holiday)
April 30th - Declared National Holiday (falls between holidays)
May 1st - National Holiday (New Emperor, Reiwa Era Begins)
May 2nd - Declared National Holiday (falls between holidays)
May 3rd - Constitution Day (National Holiday)
May 4th - Greenery Day (National Holiday)
May 5th - Children's Day (National Holiday)
May 6th - Declared National Holiday (Monday after a holiday)

We won't see any official box-office numbers during this entire period, and probably won't get them until May 7th/8th. I'll be posting daily estimates along the way.

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Maybe. It just depends on whether or not Fox wants it to reach that milestone now, I believe.



It'll have a strong opening, probably the biggest in the series, but it won't come close to any sort of opening weekend records. It would need to more than double its predecessor's opening to take the April Opening Weekend Record, and more than triple it to be in contention for any all-time opening weekend records.