Just so people know I'm just not bandwagoning on tracking, here's a post of mine from last month. Alvin will overperform yet again imo!
Initially I thought that there would be a huge, huge dropoff but I am starting to reconsider.
Cheaper By the Dozen 2 managed to retain 59.6% of its predecessor's gross. BUT, it opened the second weekend of King Kong and third of Narnia, two $200 m + films which had a lot of families go to.
Night At the Museum 2 did incredibly impressive considering its move from December to May. NATM 1 had legs of 8.25, so it was hard pressed to get close to its predecessor in May. Yet, it still retained 70.6% of its predecessor.
Pink Panther 2 didn't have a major female star with domestic appeal (ie Beyonce). Being anchored just on Steve Martin was risky. It also didn't have the nostalgia factor anymore.
Garfield 1 was pure nostalgia and its sequel had a huge drop off. The same could happen to Alvin and the Chipmunks, as it did for Scooby Doo. But, December is more forgiving than the summer if there are fewer options for families.
The reason I'm leaning toward thinking Alvin will hold better than expected is that there will be a drought of family films by the time of its release:
-Blind Side will be in its 6th weekend by Christmas
-Planet 51 disappointed
-Old Dogs looks to underwhelm
-New Moon will be very opening week oriented so by that time will have smaller but still solid grosses
-A Christmas Carol will be winding down around that time
-Fantastic Mr Fox flopped this weekend.
That leaves three films that will hurt Alvin. The Princess and the Frog, Avatar, and Sherlock Holmes. The Princess and the Frog will be in its third weekend of wide release, and will skew more toward female demographics slightly, so that leaves an opening for Alvin. It can co-exist with Princess and the Frog. Sherlock Holmes and Avatar look like they'll pull in older audiences, though teens and families will go to that too. But for very young audiences, Alvin may be preferred. Even if teens do go to those in bulk, Alvin 1 made $217 m with I Am Legend and National Treasure 2 both making $200 m in the same month. National Treasure 2 had huge family appeal.
But for family audiences, there will really only be one big family film around (Princess and the Frog). Cheesy pop culture sells, and the Chipmunks album was incredibly successful last time around. With the Chipmunks singing songs from this year, it only brings up its appeal to younger audiences.
Alvin and the Chipmunks 1 would now adjust to $235.9 m. With a 40% drop in admissions it would make $141.5 m. However, with Old Dogs, Fantastic Mr. Fox, Planet 51 all potentially underwhelming, there is a great opening for family films to burst out. It will be Princess' third weekend of release, and Alvin will be the new family film around. The next family film is Hoodwinked on January 15, 2010, so Alvin will be the only family film to open over a five week span.
But on the other side of things, this film doesn't have the nostalgia effect anymore, which will hurt it most. Even so, a string of family film disappointments opens this up to retain more of its audience now. It did have a multiplier of 4.93 and seemed to be well received by its audience.
While I am going to go with about $165 m - $175 m for now, I think the potential exists for the sequel to still do $200 m +...
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