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The first 40m opener to fall shy of 100m - What will it be?
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Author:  DP07 [ Wed Oct 20, 2004 8:13 am ]
Post subject:  The first 40m opener to fall shy of 100m - What will it be?
The new film with the record for the largest opening to miss 100m is AVP. it would be the first 40m opener to do so if it only opened slightly higher. Clearly a film will do it with legs getting worse and worse. It's just a matter of time.

BTW, other recent films to hold AVP's record were The Scorpion King and Red Dragon. Other films that nearly took the record for one reason or another included DareDevil, Charlie's Angles 2, Freddy Vs. Jason, and The Cat In The Hat.

Some future candidates IMO:

Blade: Trinity - Actually with the Wednesday release, this no longer seems like such a likely candidate. It should be frontloaded, but if it earns 40m over the 4 day weekend, it will have at least 15m from the first two days. So, at that point it would get at least 45m.

xXx 2 - It should be frontloaded being a sequel aimed at a young male action audience. Plus the weekday numbers will be low, and it will lose theaters quickly with all the summer blockbusters that will open after it. If it opens in the right range (40m-43m) less then 100m is very possible.

Doom - Like other video game movies it should be very frontloaded. Like xXx 2 though, it will probably have to open in the 40m-43m range to have a chance at being the film.

Can anyone think of any other candidates?

What do you think about the chances of each of these three films?

Comments on the past films mentioned (AVP, The Scorpion King, Red Dragon, DareDevil, Charlie's Angles 2, Freddy Vs. Jason, and The Cat In The Hat)?
Author:  MGKC [ Wed Oct 20, 2004 8:17 am ]
Post subject: 
The Village would have if it had made 40 milion, not 50 million opening weekend.

Right now, I definetley see xXx2 as the best candidate, but it's highly unlikely that it will reach 40 million.
Author:  Ragnarok [ Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:01 am ]
Post subject: 
Maybe Ring 2 or Fantastic Four if they get bad worth of mouth.
Author:  Spider-man 2004 [ Wed Oct 20, 2004 11:11 am ]
Post subject: 
Blade III if it makes 40 million!

I thought it would be AVP but that missed the 40 million mark.
Author:  zingy [ Wed Oct 20, 2004 12:16 pm ]
Post subject: 
xXx2 is most likely going to open big and fall, fall, fall.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:20 pm ]
Post subject: 
Hmmm...none that comes to my mind right now.

Neither xXx2 nor Doom nor Blade: Trinity will make $40 million in their opening weekend.

Fantastic Four will either open with less than $40 million or it will hit $100 million.

But if all of the mentioned above will open with $40+ million, Doom will end up grossing the least amount of money. (and it will be under $100 million)
Author:  A. G. [ Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:23 pm ]
Post subject: 
Most likely a horror movie, they open big and fall like rocks.

So I will guess The Grudge, everyone I know is talking about how scary it looks so it will probably open well.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Wed Oct 20, 2004 1:25 pm ]
Post subject: 
Archie Gates wrote:
Most likely a horror movie, they open big and fall like rocks.

So I will guess The Grudge, everyone I know is talking about how scary it looks so it will probably open well.


Well? Yes, no question. But $40 million? I'd say rather unlikely.

Actually I somewhat lean towards xXx2, as this might end up getting around $40-41 million in its opening weekend. Watch out for a total gross of under $90 million, though!
Author:  Plot [ Wed Oct 20, 2004 4:30 pm ]
Post subject: 
I think it will be a movie that we don't know about yet.

It'll be some huge action blockbuster (simialr to AvP) with no plot and bad acting that has tons of advertising, so all the teen boys in the country know about it by the time it comes out.

I think it'll happen in 2006, by then, with inflation, a $40 million opening will be the same as AvP's opening.
Author:  A. G. [ Sun Oct 24, 2004 7:12 am ]
Post subject: 
Will it be the Grudge? Hopefully it will hit 40m this weekend. Then we can all wish for it to fall to break the record. :)
Author:  El Maskado [ Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
Archie Gates wrote:
Will it be the Grudge? Hopefully it will hit 40m this weekend. Then we can all wish for it to fall to break the record. :)


Possibly. Personally the movie felt rather bland and mediocre for a horror movie but I did hear alot of screams in the theater I saw it in. I dont know why but I guess people get scared easily even though its something as lame as a black cat popping out of the closet :roll: . I hope it falls short of a 100 million dollars but it most likely wont
Author:  Korrgan [ Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:58 pm ]
Post subject: 
Sadly, The Grudge got just under 40 million. :( It still did awesomely great, though. :D
Author:  DP07 [ Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:33 pm ]
Post subject: 
Korrgan wrote:
Sadly, The Grudge got just under 40 million. :( It still did awesomely great, though. :D


Since it has opened with more then AVP, it is possible that the film will be the highest opener to fall short of 100m. However, I don't think it will.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:41 pm ]
Post subject: 
DP07 wrote:
Korrgan wrote:
Sadly, The Grudge got just under 40 million. :( It still did awesomely great, though. :D


Since it has opened with more then AVP, it is possible that the film will be the highest opener to fall short of 100m. However, I don't think it will.


You were still wrong projecting its weekend gross after its Friday!! :twisted:

I just had to rub it in, since I am so rarely right against you :lol:

However, I think it will just barely cross $100 million, topping out somewhere between $99-102 million.
Author:  DP07 [ Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:47 pm ]
Post subject: 
Dr. Lecter wrote:
DP07 wrote:
Korrgan wrote:
Sadly, The Grudge got just under 40 million. :( It still did awesomely great, though. :D


Since it has opened with more then AVP, it is possible that the film will be the highest opener to fall short of 100m. However, I don't think it will.


You were still wrong projecting its weekend gross after its Friday!! :twisted:

I just had to rub it in, since I am so rarely right against you :lol:

However, I think it will just barely cross $100 million, topping out somewhere between $99-102 million.


Actually, I wasn't. The friday estimate was too high, but I was right that the film would increase a few percentage points on Saturday, those who predited a drop were wrong :P . The internal multiplier I predicted of 2.7-2.8 was just a bit off from the actual of 2.69. Closer then those who predicted 2.5. :wink:
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:54 pm ]
Post subject: 
Well, I took the Friday overestimation as granted :P
Author:  DP07 [ Mon Oct 25, 2004 7:58 pm ]
Post subject: 
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Well, I took the Friday overestimation as granted :P


That's what you say now! :P

:wink:
Author:  DP07 [ Mon Nov 01, 2004 8:52 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Grudge is almost certain to reach 100m now. Fairly good hold this weekend. While the drop next week will be large, it's less then 30m away, well within striking distance.
Author:  zingy [ Mon Nov 01, 2004 9:50 pm ]
Post subject: 
Yup, The Grudge will end with about $105-110 million. :D
Author:  O [ Sat Apr 22, 2006 1:28 pm ]
Post subject: 
I just happened to see this thread, and I know we have a similar one in "today's" times, but its funny how this record has stayed so long, until Scary Movie 4 breaks it. :tongue: Its very reflective of the leggy 2005 season we had.
Author:  thompsoncory [ Sat Apr 22, 2006 5:47 pm ]
Post subject: 
I don't know why everyone seems so convinced that Scary Movie 4 won't cross 100 Million. I'd say it's a lock, although it won't gross much more than that.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Apr 23, 2006 11:13 am ]
Post subject: 
thompsoncory wrote:
I don't know why everyone seems so convinced that Scary Movie 4 won't cross 100 Million. I'd say it's a lock, although it won't gross much more than that.


Honestly, I can't see how it culd pass $100 million as of now. Its 2nd weekend drop will be around 58% and it will soon start losing screens and theatres very fast. Once M:I-3 arrives, Scary Movie 4 is dead.
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