With inflation, grosses just keep on going up, and year after year more films should keep breaking records, thus which candidates are likely this year/next year?
Last year, or this year, we had unexpected rockets in Paul Blart and Taken both surging to 140m+ in January.
He's Just Not That Into You exceeded expectations but missed the century mark.
Both Friday the 13th and Madea exploded out of the gate but had lousy multipliers and failed to hit the big 100 too.
Watchmen then disappointed massively with 200m+ predictions being killed early.
Race to Witch Mountain then failed and didn't get past 70m.
Monsters Vs Aliens did it's expected huge gross and finally,
Fast and Furious broke out with a huge OW and did over 100m like expected but had a terrible multiplier though its final gross was above what many predicted.
5 films in a 4 month period got above 100m, which I think was a record?
So what are we looking at next year?
1. Book of Eli 15th Jan
Touted as a contender following Taken's extraordinary success but after the trailer came out it looks like it'll fall into the expected Denzel range of between 60-70m. Interesting concept but doesn't look like it'll be exceptionally good with audiences and the quality is questionable with the trailer being really quite underwhelming.
2. Edge of Darkness 29th Jan
I didn't believe it myself until I saw half of the trailer, stopping myself because it seemed the trailer would give away everything. However it does look like this year's Taken and Mel Gibson has been a solid draw and hasn't had a movie in years, last directing 4 years ago by 2010 too. This looks good for 100m+
3. Valentine's Day 12th Feb
With an all star ensemble cast, basically the who's who of romantic comedies, this looks to be huge. Yet I don't see how they will be able to fit all of these people into a cohesive movie. I think it'll be a mess and thus 150-200m as thrown out in the trailer thread will not be possible. Look for a respectable but underwhelming gross of 110-120m considering the cast but expected due to the predictable quality the movie will be.
4. The Wolfman 12th Feb
Previously a tentpole release for winter 2009 for Universal, it's constant release date changes made it look like a prime example of being a shitty movie that just needed to be released to fulfill contractual obligations. However after recent trailers, it looks like a really great epic fantasy romantic thriller tale. I'm sold and I think if this has good WOM it'll be able to reach the century mark. Universal should have kept it in 2009 and gone for the first weekend of December, which looks dead at the moment. Thankfully they had CR being a good hit after their string of flops in the summer.
5. Shutter Island 19th Feb
Scorsese's latest and a candidate for Best Picture Oscar for 2009 it too was rescheduled really shoddily with a lame excuse by Paramount who've been having a great few years. However it still looks as good as before and Di Caprio is indeed a draw and looks good in the movie. Although the trailer paints it less accessible than most of his previous movies if this is good, which it should be, it will be heading for the 100 club too. There may be a few qualms about the quality since February is a far way away from Oscar season, almost a year? But we shall see.
6. Alice in Wonderland 5th Mar
Tentpole release for Disney and in my opinion they need this to be a hit. After a disappointing fall-winter season, with Surrogates flopping and Xmas Carol disappointing (yes, it will
) the Mouse House really need a hit and this looks like it has the potential. However I see this as being the next Watchmen rather than the next 300. March has been previously kind to potential blockbusters whether for adults or the more widespread demographic that CGI caters for. But as we saw this year, with it being the most promising month on paper be the worst performing month in reality, next year could be just the same. Alice doesn't look particularly kid-friendly or good in its trailer taking a more weird and freaky look. I still see it barely crossing 100m but studios will start to get more apprehensive of the early March date with 2 disappointments in a row. However, the quality could be up there and it'll be another success for film lovers with Watchmen delivering last year and Alice in its own way could too.7. Clash of the Titans 26th Mar
I know little about this movie in comparison to the others and most of you. All I know it's supposed to be some mythological fantasy action epic with Worthington and Neeson and that itself sounds fantastic. Given it's huge budget and prime release date it's obviously gunning for a respectable total thus at this point sub-100m would be disappointing. It's got competition and I just realized both it and Dragon from Dreamworks will be some sort of medieval fantasy epic however they should cater to different enough demographics for both to do well and dominate the weekend and April with their legs assuming both are crowdpleasers. Titans seems after all like a Pirates 1 than say a GI Joe though I enjoyed both. Either way it should gross 100m, let's just hope it's good.
8.How to Train Your Dragon 26th Mar
The token original Dreamworks animated film of the year. This year there will be two, with Oobermind in November and it steals the March position most famously held by Blue Sky who've released 4 of their 5 movies on this date before MVA stole it last year pushing IA3 to summer. Not much to say really, but the last and only Dreamworks movie not to cross 100m was Antz and even at that it grossed 90m in 1998. So this is pretty much a guarantee as MVA was last year and which all Dreamworks movies are, kind of like how Pixar movies are guaranteed 200m. Anyway, it's interesting and hopefully it'll continue Dreamworks stride away from overdependence on Shrek, Madagascar and pop culture.
9. Date Night 9th Apr
Tina Fey + Steve Carell = comedy gold. The premise sounds good and I expected a huge total until some guy came along and said it didn't really work and it was too action-oriented. Kind of like Observe + Report and Pineapple Express or something like that. So, my expectations have fallen but I'll have to see it myself and to a lesser extent critic's response. Audience response is key and a relatively decent opening could help this film leg it there. I mean, come on, Fey and Carell, how can it not possibly be good?
Others that may have potential that I do not know much about or do not have trailers yet:
10. Percy Jackson and the Olympians 12th Feb
11. The Bounty Hunter 19th Mar
12. Repo Men(?) 2nd Apr
13. Why Did I Get Married Too? 2nd Apr
14. The Losers 9th Apr
15. Kick Ass 16th Apr
16. Wall Street 2 23rd Apr
17. A Nightmare on Elm Street(99% chance of it not happening obviously being what it is) 30th Apr
Imagine what a great spring it'd be if "Grown Ups" and "The Expendables" stayed in March and April respectively.
Summer however, looks quite weak in comparison so far with the exception of Iron Man 2 and Toy Story 3.
