Yes, holidays definitely help family films. Btw, Thursday actuals are delayed due to the holiday. By looking at Saturday's current ticket sales, Nightmare falls to third behind Robin Hood, which seems to hold pretty strong. Phillip Morris currently ranks fifth.

So a battle of the sexes is awaiting us June 10. I say Sex and the City 2 has the upper hand for it has an established fan base. Also, given how well-received the first one was, theaters will be willing to give this more showtimes and bigger screens than they do The A-Team.

June 3 is also interesting to look at. They roll out Green Zone, From Paris with Love, and Gallants the same week! Bad scheduling at work here. All three films target nearly the same demographic.

I look forward to Gallants, which from what I read about it, is an inspirational and upbeat kick-and-fight movie made for Hong Kong.

Gallants

	Saturday adm.			May 22
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Ip Man 2	36312	12770	-64.8%
2	Nightmare On Elm Street	--	11233	--
3	Robin Hood	14782	8689	-41.2%
4	Once A Gangster	--	7606	--
5	Iron Man 2	13142	6493	-50.6%

Only thing worth noting here is that Once A Gangster actually increased from yesterday. All the drops are relative to the increases made yesterday.

	Sunday adm.	so far		May 23
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Ip Man 2	13073	4646	-64.5%
2	Nightmare On Elm Street	--	3570	--
3	Robin Hood	6044	2910	-51.9%
4	Iron Man 2	5557	2627	-52.7%
5	Once A Gangster	--	1921	--

Ip Man 2 leads all films with the highest gain from Saturday's presales. Most troubling is Nightmare on Elm Street which is the only film to decrease from Saturday. Once A Gangster has steadily gained on it from Thurs-Sat. and we could see Gangster just 1000 or 2000 admissions behind Nightmare when all is said and done. It won't be enough to pull ahead though.

^ It seems Nightmare is a night movie. Last time I checked its admission was about 60% that of Ip Man 2. Sales must have picked up fast in the evening.

^^^^ Avatar is still playing on the 4D screen. People can't get enough of it when it's already on DVD. Is the film going to be re-released in Hong Kong in the extended form?

How is NOES performing compared to other horror movies in the past?

Opening Day (in HK Dollars):

The Omen (2006) $990,000 (The 666 effect)
Ghost Ship $710,000
The Haunting of Connecticut $640,000
The Exorcist (Director's Cut) $630,000
---> A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010) $520,000
The House of Wax $500,000
Orphan $490,000 (Rated III)
Hide and Seek $360,000
Saw 5 $320,000 (Rated III)
1408 $310,000
Saw 6 $260,000 (Rated III)
The Crazies $140,000
Friday the 13th (2009) $110,000 (Rated III)

It should be noted III-rated films play to a restricted audience (people over the age of 17).

1 US Dollar = 7.75 HK Dollars

I'd say Nightmare's opening day is above average, but not a breakout hit.

Wow, Ghost Ship did surprisingly well, eh?

	Sunday adm.			May 23
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Ip Man 2	31784	10734	-66.2%
2	Nightmare On Elm Street	--	7539	--
3	Robin Hood	12020	7155	-40.5%
4	Once A Gangster	--	6817	--
5	Iron Man 2	12158	5771	-52.5%

More release dates:

Daybreakers - May 27
Harmony - June 17
Letters To Juliet - June 17
Hot Tub Time Machine - June 17
Twilight III: Eclipse - July 1
Shrek: Forever After - July 1
Salt - July 22
(Avatar) The Last Airbender - July 29
The Karate Kid - August 5
Cats And Dogs: The Revenge of Kitty Galore - August 5
Keroro 5 - August 12

Triple Tap - pushed back to July

If this lineup is true, July will be really packed. Eclipse vs. Shrek. Inception vs. Salt. Airbender vs. Aftershock.

Yes, it did. WB handled horror movies pretty well there.

While we are waiting for the weekend actuals, let's look at how the two IM 2 fare:

Chart Watch IP MAN vs. IP MAN 2 vs. IRON MAN vs. IRON MAN 2

	IP MAN	IP MAN 2	IRON MAN	IRON MAN 2
Release Date	12/19/2008 (Fri)	4/29/2010 (Thu)*	4/30/2008 (Wed)	4/30/2010 (Fri)
Week 1	HK$4,561,176	HK$13,370,463	HK$9,310,912	HK$11,936,577
Week 2	HK$9,511,324	HK$14,926,660	HK$5,836,572	HK$9,974,476
Week 3	HK$6,410,330	HK$8,519,988	HK$4,480,470	HK$4,405,133
Week 4	HK$3,429,372		HK$1,430,828
Week 5	HK$1,369,142		HK$467,793
Week 6	HK$282,964		HK$144,134
Week 7	HK$22,156		HK$59,459
Week 8			HK$24,201
Total	HK$25,600,000	HK$36,817,111	HK$21,740,000	HK$26,316,186

A week is defined as from Monday to the next Sunday.
* Ip Man 2 held evening previews on Wednesday, April 28, 2010.

Both IP MAN 2 and IRON MAN 2 are ahead of their respective precedessors in unadjusted total. IP MAN 2 is running 79.7% above IP MAN at the same point. IRON MAN 2 is 34.1% above the original at the same point, although the sequel is running behind in weekly total beginning week 3.

^ That's not good for Persia. 12245 tickets sold from 80% of all theaters were equivalent of $900,000 daily gross. It was expected to make at least $1 million in opening.

I will provide some comparison numbers later.

REWIND: Last Thursday's Actuals (5/20/2010)

	New Releases					May 20, 2010
Rank	Title	Origin	Rating	# Theaters	# Showings	Platform	Thursday	Admissions per showing
2	A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010)	US	IIB	33	194	Very Wide	HK$521,674	47
3	Once A Gangster	HK	IIB	30	158	Very Wide	HK$359,617	40
6	I Love You, Phillip Morris	France/US	IIB	14	71	Semi-Wide	HK$156,988	39
-	Thomas & Friends: Hero of the Rails	US	I	6	25	Limited	HK$14,000	10
-	Like A Dream	HK	IIA	2	10	Limited	HK$6,000	11

		Holdovers					May 20, 2010
TW	LW	Title	Origin	Weeks	Thursday	% Change from LW	Total
1	1	Ip Man 2	HK/China	4	HK$727,929	-26%	HK$38,867,985
4	2	Robin Hood	US	2	HK$264,310	-38%	HK$3,743,669
5	3	Iron Man 2	US	4	HK$248,147	-30%	HK$27,260,740
7	4	Dream Home	HK	2	HK$102,482	-60%	HK$2,035,008
8	5	The Bounty Hunter	US	2	HK$99,512	-41%	HK$1,690,152
9	6	Dear John	US	3	HK$28,970	-35%	HK$1,664,059
10	8	The Private Life of Pippa Lee	US	2	HK$15,847	-33%	HK$220,000

All drops were mitigated by Friday (5/21) being a public holiday.

IP MAN 2 stayed on the top for the fourth week; it's been a very impressive run for the sequel about the Wing Chun master.

ROBIN HOOD posted a good sophomoric hold while DREAM HOME dived 60% like most horror films do.

5/27 Openers by Release Platform:

Saturated:
Prince of Persia


Wide:
Nodame Cantabile: The Movie II, Remember Me, Daybreakers


Limited:
Le Refuge, Greenberg

5/27 Thursday Actuals

	New Releases					May 27, 2010
Rank	Title	Origin	Rating	# Theaters	# Showings	Platform	Thursday	Admissions per showing
1	Prince of Persia	US	IIA	40	291	Saturated	HK$860,750	51
2	Nodame Cantabile: The Movie II	Japan	I	21	109	Wide	HK$312,335	50
3	Remember Me	US	IIB	20	100	Wide	HK$164,513	29
6	Daybreakers	US	III	19	87	Wide	HK$106,534	21
-	Greenberg	US	IIB	2	10	Limited	HK$12,000	21
-	Le Refuge	France	III	3	15	Limited	HK$7,900	9

		Holdovers					May 27, 2010
TW	LW	Title	Origin	Weeks	Thursday	% Change from LW	Total
4	3	Once A Gangster	HK	2	HK$149,617	-58%	HK$3,105,875
5	2	A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010)	US	2	HK$113,612	-78%	HK$3,509,985
7	1	Ip Man 2	HK/China	5	HK$95,611	-87%	HK$42,272,510
8	6	I Love You, Phillip Morris	France/US	2	HK$55,003	-65%	HK$1,238,824
9	4	Robin Hood	US	3	HK$42,266	-84%	HK$5,619,637
10	5	Iron Man 2	US	5	HK$35,896	-86%	HK$28,943,742

Openers:

Openers occupied the top three spots.

Prince of Persia opened to less than $1 million, the standard benchmark of a saturated opener. Theaters are hoping kids and families will turn out in droves on the weekend to see the Disney adventure film. If not, they may cut its showtimes to make room for other releases.

Japanese tv drama-turned-movie Nodame Cantabile II did 20% better than its precedessor (which opened in March). Coincidentally, the first one also opened against a Disney release (Alice in Wonderland).

Remember Me performed very much like Dear John, which opened to $153,378 with 97 showings. Given that RM made much less than DJ in the US, can we say Robert Pattinson is bigger draw than Channing Tatum in Hong Kong?

Restricted by its III rating, Daybreakers' opening was underwhelming. It's not surprising considering the film is already available on import DVD and this month has been saturated with horror movies (The Crazies, Dream Home, and the Freddy Krueger remake).

As for limited releases, Greenberg's number was passable. French release Le Refuge disappointed, (which I think) partly due to its III rating.

Holdovers:

Due to last Thursday numbers being inflated, big drops were seen everywhere.

Ip Man 2 finally gave up its four-week reign on top as it fell to No. 7 losing a significant number of showtimes. Its total is only $2 million behind Alice in Wonderland's grand total. Can it top that?

Once A Gangster held relatively well dipping only 58%, surpassing A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010), which dropped close to 80%.

Coming up: comparison numbers for Prince of Persia

Comparisons of PRINCE OF PERSIA

Opening Day (in HK Dollars unadjusted):

Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $6,800,000 (opens on a holiday)
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor $3,480,000
Terminator: Revenge of the Fallen $3,000,000 (holiday effect)
Iron Man 2 $3,300,000 (opens on Friday)
The Mummy Returns $2,740,000
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $2,630,000
Iron Man $2,620,000
Clash of the Titans $2,230,000 (3D price premium and holiday effect)
Alice in Wonderland $2,180,000 (3D price premium)
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $1,850,000
Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian $1,790,000
Lara Croft: Tomb Raider 1,550,000
Night at the Museum $1,410,000
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe $1,410,000
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $1,090,000
Lara Croft Tomb Raider: The Cradle of Life $870,000
---> Prince of Persia $860,750
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl $840,000
The Incredible Hulk $830,000
Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief $670,000 (fierce competition; 8 wide openers)
The Golden Compass $650,000

Its opening day is definitely underwhelming. Opening under Lara Croft: The Cradle of Life unadjusted is a troubling sign. But late May is not a good release time in Hong Kong as students are studying for final exams at this time.

I would say Prince of Persia's number is a huge disappointment.

	Saturday adm.			May 29
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time	--	32591	--
2	Nodame Cantabile Part 2	--	11498	--
3	Remember Me	--	4934	--
4	Daybreakers	--	3685	--
5	Once A Gangster	7606	3347	-56.0%

	Sunday adm.	(so far)		May 30
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time	--	11951	--
2	Nodame Cantabile Part 2	--	4922	--
3	Remember Me	--	1244	--
4	Daybreakers	--	1157	--
5	Once A Gangster	1921	1116	-41.9%

Channing Tatum is not a big draw in the US. What sold people there was the military love story and the director...not the lead(s). Robert Pattinson is a huge draw everywhere. I don't think there will be any disputes there.

I really think that if Daybreakers was rated IIB, it would have flourished. I was surprised at its III rating.

Greenberg's number is not that bad. That is about $1,500 US. It has a shot at $10,000 for the weekend.

That is terrible for The Refuge.

I don't think Ip Man 2 will make it with the huge drop. It's a shame that it fell over 80% this week. I guess nothing is a sure lock these days over here.

Release Date	Movie Title
June 3	Green Zone Gallants From Paris With Love Goemon About Her Brother
June 10	Sex And The City 2 The A-Team Ex How To Date An Otaku Girl
June 15	Season Of The Witch
June 16	Breakup Club
June 17	The Runaways Exam Harmony Letters To Juliet Hot Tub Time Machine
June 24	Knight And Day The Legend Is Born - Ip Man Ocean Heaven
June 30	Triple Tap Twilight 3: Eclipse Shrek 4: Forever After (or July 1)

Added: Harmony, Letters To Juliet, Hot Tub Time Machine, Ocean Heaven, About Her Brother, How To Date An Otaku Girl, Eclipse

I'm unsure about Shrek.

Yes, "from the director of The Notebook" means something.

Pattinson is a draw, no doubt. I really look forward to seeing how much Eclipse will make in Hong Kong. New Moon died fast opening against Avatar; it fell out of the top 10 in week 4.

Twilight $17,200,000
New Moon $14,700,000
Eclipse ?

It'll be interesting to see if Eclipse can buck the decreasing trend and post a new high for the series.

Totally agree with you on Daybreakers.

I'm sure it will be...although they might reconsider the August 6th date here. Aftershock, Inception, Salt are all being released 2 weeks before and they could prove tough competition for Avatar to steal away business.

As for Eclipse, I think it will gross more than Twilight. New Moon would have opened much higher if it wasn't released alongside Avatar.

	Sunday adm.			May 30
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Prince Of Persia: The Sands Of Time	--	31827	--
2	Nodame Cantabile Part 2	--	9453	--
3	Remember Me	--	4216	--
4	Once A Gangster	6817	3537	-48.1%
5	Daybreakers	--	3519	--

Good hold from Saturday for Persia. After its disastrous opening Thursday, it has picked up remarkably in weekend sales. Nodame Cantabile was always frontloaded but losing 2,000 admissions from Saturday -> Sunday is pretty significant especially when its Saturday is already at a low number. People are waiting for Eclipse to come out...not this movie. Gangster gained admissions from Saturday and was rewarded with a less than 50% drop. Daybreakers held on strong and is not playing like a typical horror movie where everyone rushes out to see it opening and Friday night.

Are you referring to Remember Me or Nodame Cantabile? The frontloadedness of Nodame Cantabile II was expected as it is a fan-based movie and a sequel.

This week, Green Zone, From Paris with Love, and old-school martial arts film Gallants open. None of them look to open as wide as Prince of Persia. I predict Prince to stay atop.

Oops. I forgot to mention Remember Me. That was supposed to be my additional thoughts to it.

Notes:

Prince of Persia in IMAX has been extended by one week. Last showing is now June 9th.

Aftershock (the first Chinese movie ever to be shown on the IMAX screen in Hong Kong) will start showing in IMAX on July 22nd. This only lends credibility to the notion that Aftershock and not Inception will garner the largest screens that week. By the way, Aftershock actually moved from July 29th to the new date of July 22th. That is going to be one crazy weekend...possibly even beating the much-hyped Iron Man 2 vs. Ip Man 2 battle due to the uncertainty that comes with all 3 films (+ Salt) being original.

Advanced ticketing has started for Sex And The City 2.

Are they still showing IRON MAN 2 in IMAX?

When will Aftershocks open in China? I know the film is based around the devastating 1976 Tangshan Earthquake. It is directed by commercial filmmaker Feng Xiao-gang (The Banquet, A World Without Thieves).

Aftershocks should win this battle handily as the subject matter is much closer to home. But Inception can still pull an upset depending on the word-of-mouth.

No. Iron Man 2 finished its run the day before Prince of Persia came out.

According to IMDB, it comes out July 28.

Predicting Aftershock is a crapshoot. It can finish anywhere from #1-#3 depending on how many people are interested in seeing this. Logic says that with IMAX on board, it is an encouraging sign that it will finish #1 but it could end up bombing. Less so for Inception...it will finish #1 or #2 for the weekend.

Aftershock might be too depressing for some people and will no doubt, drive people away with its subject matter and atmosphere.

6/3 Openers:

Green Zone - Very Wide?
Gallants - Very Wide?
From Paris with Love - Wide

Two actioners and one old-school styled martial arts comedy open this week, all targeting male over 25.