World of KJ :: View topic - Early Friday Numbers

Quote:

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES FOR OCTOBER 2-4
1. NEW - Zombieland (Sony) - $8.5M Fri - $21.3M 3-day - $21.3M cume
2. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (Sony) - $3.5M Fri - $15.9M 3-day - $81.6M cume
3. NEW - Toy Story/Toy Story 2 (Disney) -$3.7M Fri - $13.7M 3-day - $13.7M cume
4. Surrogates (Disney) - $2.3M Fri - $7.5M 3-day - $26.5M cume
5. NEW - The Invention of Lying (Warner Bros) - $2.2M Fri - $6.5M 3-day - $6.5M cume
6. Fame (MGM) - $1.5M Fri - $4.7M 3-day - $16.6M cume
*NEW - Whip It (Fox Searchlight) - $1.7M Fri - $4.4M 3-day - $4.4M cume
*NEW - Capitalism: A Love Story (Overture) - $1.3M Fri - $3.9M 3-day - $3.9M cume

xiayun wrote:

It's not as hot a topic as what Sicko dealt with. Universal healthcare has resonance with a bigger audience, while attacking capitalism (which general viewers could feel if they just read the title) is more likely to be rejected and making people think you're a extreme leftist. The lesser reviews don't help either.

Dr. Lecter wrote:

I think Michael Moore's shitkc has gotten a bit old by now for general audiences. He doesn't have the same drawing power he used to have. Sicko was still riding on the F 9/11 wave, this is a step down now.

したい wrote:

A bit of an ouch for Capitalism, imo.

xiayun wrote:

Well, Nikki released her set of numbers, some rather different: http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/holly ... m-weekend/.

I wouldn't trust her on the holdovers though as I remember she had G-Force not dropping Fri-to-Fri at all for one of the weeks.

Author:	xiayun [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:04 am ]
Post subject:	Early Friday Numbers
Quote: EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES FOR OCTOBER 2-4 1. NEW - Zombieland (Sony) - $8.5M Fri - $21.3M 3-day - $21.3M cume 2. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (Sony) - $3.5M Fri - $15.9M 3-day - $81.6M cume 3. NEW - Toy Story/Toy Story 2 (Disney) -$3.7M Fri - $13.7M 3-day - $13.7M cume 4. Surrogates (Disney) - $2.3M Fri - $7.5M 3-day - $26.5M cume 5. NEW - The Invention of Lying (Warner Bros) - $2.2M Fri - $6.5M 3-day - $6.5M cume 6. Fame (MGM) - $1.5M Fri - $4.7M 3-day - $16.6M cume NEW - Whip It (Fox Searchlight) - $1.7M Fri - $4.4M 3-day - $4.4M cume NEW - Capitalism: A Love Story (Overture) - $1.3M Fri - $3.9M 3-day - $3.9M cume http://stevemasonsmog.typepad.com/710_e ... tanks.html

Author:	Jiffy [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:05 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
Looks really good for the Top 3.

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:07 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
Damn early? Anyway, that looks good and quite a break-out for Zombieland. It's been a very good year for horror, very good. FIVE horror movies opened above $20 million it seems: Friday the 13th, The Final Destination, The Haunting of Connecticut, My Bloody Valentine 3D and now Zombieland. Saw VI will follow suit, so that's at least six. Last year we had only four (five if you count Cloverfield). Only three of them were R-rated whereas this year all, but one are R-rated so far.

Author:	Corpse [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:10 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
A bit of an ouch for Capitalism, imo.

Author:	curtis20 [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:10 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
Decent weekend. Zombieland did Expectation. Good for TS1/TS2

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Author:	zingy [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:11 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
Very good for Zombieland, though I'm hoping it breaks $22m.

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:15 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
I think Michael Moore's shitkc has gotten a bit old by now for general audiences. He doesn't have the same drawing power he used to have. Sicko was still riding on the F 9/11 wave, this is a step down now.

Author:	xiayun [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:19 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
I'd actually say that's expected for Capitalism. It should have a fine IM, as the rush factor is gone for Moore's films. Could easily get to 4.5m and a 4,700 PTA, which is fine for a such big expansion. The IMs for holdovers in general won't be as good as last week's given the holiday boost, especially for the family films.

Author:	Corpse [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:19 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
True, but I still thought it could have done better than Sicko this weekend. It's just barely going to beat Sicko's 3.6m from 700 theatres. Also seems we didn't use the right numbers. Omni and I both thought Sicko opened to 4.6m. ^___^. Wouldn't have gone as high as we did on Capitalism.

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:20 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
I dunno, with that weekend number and a lot of competition for theatres and screens, I am not sure about Capitalism breaking $20 million...

Author:	xiayun [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:23 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
It's not as hot a topic as what Sicko dealt with. Universal healthcare has resonance with a bigger audience, while attacking capitalism (which general viewers could feel if they just read the title) is more likely to be rejected and making people think you're a extreme leftist. The lesser reviews don't help either. Basically I never really expected it to do better than Sicko did.

Author:	Chippy [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:24 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
Not good for Whip It/Capitalism. Great for Zombieland/TS/Lying!!!

Author:	movies35 [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:24 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
Major ouch for WHIP IT... too bad.

Author:	Dr. Lecter [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:25 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
xiayun wrote: It's not as hot a topic as what Sicko dealt with. Universal healthcare has resonance with a bigger audience, while attacking capitalism (which general viewers could feel if they just read the title) is more likely to be rejected and making people think you're a extreme leftist. The lesser reviews don't help either. Yeah, though I still think that if released 2-3 years ago (provided the financial crisis had happened then) it'd still have done better than it does now.

Author:	Proud Ryu [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:45 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
Capitalism wrecked my prediction. I thought it would have a healthier PTA drop and most certainly beat Sicko's 441 theater number by at least 50%. However, to compliment what xiayun said, I didn't think about how Capitalism would play very well in left big cities compared to middle america, whereas with Sicko middle america is more concerned about health care costs than in big cities with more easily obtained affordable health care. Zombieland has actually set a new standard for horror comedy. It's success is no doubt derived from strongly emphasizing the comedy aspect to make it CLEAR that it is in fact a comedy merely set in horror trappings, and emphasizing the action of just wall to wall zombie killing survival was brilliance.

Author:	Proud Ryu [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 3:34 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
Aint no way Cloudy goes anywhere near that high, nor Lying, nor etc.

Author:	O [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 10:08 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
If the Toy Story double feature makes $14 m this weekend, here is what the Toy Story film totals would look like unofficially (as the numbers may or may not be added to them): Toy Story 2 + $7 m = $252,852,179 (Passes $250 m!!!) Toy Story + $7 m = $198,796,233 (Should pass $200 m eventually!!!)

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Author:	Corpse [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:27 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
I guess it Capitalism can reach 4.5 or so this weekend, it's not all that bad actually.

Author:	Bradley Witherberry [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:28 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
Dr. Lecter wrote: I think Michael Moore's shitkc has gotten a bit old by now for general audiences. He doesn't have the same drawing power he used to have. Sicko was still riding on the F 9/11 wave, this is a step down now. That's one way of looking at it... (Nothing to do with mass media propoganda - - nope! - - nothing to see here...)

Author:	xiayun [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:34 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
I probably wouldn't give Toy Story that high of an IM. Still, that's an excellent number, considering it basically translates to a $15,000 weekend PTA for a single film. I feel Zombieland will reach 9m with actual, as from the crowd report, the (late) night business is very strong.

Author:	STEVE ROGERS [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 2:58 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
したい wrote: A bit of an ouch for Capitalism, imo. A bit of an ouch?? I mean, who on earth would pay good $$$ to see this crap when it should be shown on channels like CNN or FOX as a TV Special???

Author:	xiayun [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 3:19 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
Well, Nikki released her set of numbers, some rather different: http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/holly ... m-weekend/. I wouldn't trust her on the holdovers though as I remember she had G-Force not dropping Fri-to-Fri at all for one of the weeks.

Author:	Jiffy [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 3:26 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
xiayun wrote: Well, Nikki released her set of numbers, some rather different: http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/holly ... m-weekend/. I wouldn't trust her on the holdovers though as I remember she had G-Force not dropping Fri-to-Fri at all for one of the weeks. Yeah, a -12% Friday-to-Friday hold for Cloudy seems beyond the bounds of reality considering the 3D competition from the Toy Story double feature.

Author:	SolC9 [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 8:46 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
Okay, so here are my weekend projections with Finke's numbers. Note** I'm not too confident in these numbers as both Finke can be way off, and I'm not sure what the multipliers will be like. Zombieland - 9M - 25.1M Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs - 4.9M - 19.0M Toy Story/Toy Story 2 3D - 3.8M - 14.1M The Invention of Lying - 2.7M - 7.9M Whip It - 1.7M - 5.1M Capitalism: A Love Story - 1.6M - 5.4M Surrogates - 2.2M - 7.0M Fame - 1.4M - 4.3M The Informant - 1.1M - 3.5M Love Happens - 0.925M - 2.8M

Author:	Levy [ Sat Oct 03, 2009 9:45 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Early Friday Numbers
Sunday drops might me higher than expected with the Favre-Packers game on, right? Or is this just me hoping Zombieland is dropping below 22