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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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 Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? The usual Over/Under thread.  $165 million seems to be around the mark around which most TF2 predictions are hovering, so looks like a fitting benchmark. I'm going with slightly under ($161-163 million) _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 9:50 am |
 
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? Eh, I should not be thinking you have a personal bias against TF2 but 165m is just too low for a benchmark. I mean, is it too hard to exceed SM2's 158m+ 5-day after half a decade, where frontloading and inflation are at insane levels? 175m SHOULD be the benchmark.
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 10:20 am |
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Mr. Reynolds
Confessing on a Dance Floor
Joined: Tue Nov 23, 2004 12:46 am
Posts: 5578
Location: Celebratin' in Chitown
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? 156 so under
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 10:23 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? 2001 wrote: Eh, I should not be thinking you have a personal bias against TF2 but 165m is just too low for a benchmark. I mean, is it too hard to exceed SM2's 158m+ 5-day after half a decade, where frontloading and inflation are at insane levels? 175m SHOULD be the benchmark. SM2 had a $400+ million grossing predecessor. _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 10:40 am |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? Dr. Lecter wrote: SM2 had a $400+ million grossing predecessor. SM1 didn't have great WoM though and the franchise had no room for expansion unlike TF2. SM2's 5-day adjusts to 183m, and that had July 4th on its Sunday.
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 10:55 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6788
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? Under. Around 155M.
_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 11:11 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6788
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? 2001 wrote: Dr. Lecter wrote: SM2 had a $400+ million grossing predecessor. SM1 didn't have great WoM though and the franchise had no room for expansion unlike TF2. SM2's 5-day adjusts to 183m, and that had July 4th on its Sunday. SM1's WOM among general audience was WAY BETTER than TF1. TF1 appealed only to narrow demographics. Japan/UK opening kind of confirmed how that limits its potential.
_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 11:12 am |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? shawman wrote: SM1's WOM among general audience was WAY BETTER than TF1. Based on what? Even SM2 had worse WoM compared to TF1. On Yahoo!, SM1/SM2 had a B+, TF1 has an A-.
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 11:39 am |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? I'll stick to over.
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 11:49 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am
Posts: 40611
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? I'll probably go over. If it was released on a regular 3 day weekend I'd say 140 mil would be likely. So with the extra days I definitely think it'll go over
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 12:25 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? 2001 wrote: Eh, I should not be thinking you have a personal bias against TF2 but 165m is just too low for a benchmark. I mean, is it too hard to exceed SM2's 158m+ 5-day after half a decade, where frontloading and inflation are at insane levels? 175m SHOULD be the benchmark. this. _________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 12:33 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6788
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? We are just a day away form release and even in NYC I dont see too many regular screen sellouts for midnight. For imax at AMC Loews only midnight and couple of evening shows on wednesday have sold out. All other shows for wednesday are still open. This is so lame even compared to Star Trek forget about TDK.
TDK had sold out all imax for the weekend well before release date. Plus theaters like Regal Union Sq had like 8-10 regular screen sellout while TF2 has ZERO.
I dunno how anyone is expecting this one to have 10M+ midnights. Without good midnights its OD will be low and overall weekend to be good but not that great.
_________________
The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:00 pm |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm
Posts: 13057
Location: Augsburg (2,040 years young)
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million?
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Nothing Compares 2 U
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:10 pm |
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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm
Posts: 12333
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? Under with $147.3 million.
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:24 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am
Posts: 32636
Location: the last free city
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? $40m OVER
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Is it 2028 yet?
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:47 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am
Posts: 25435
Location: Classified
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? I have to go with less at this point. And I thought this was a lock for 200 million 5 day until a week ago. 
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:49 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm
Posts: 63026
Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? over
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:50 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? MTC can suck their balls! I'm not gonna give this up on tracking.
But I'm seriously worried now.
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 2:55 pm |
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El Maskado
Arrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhhhhhh!
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 8:17 pm
Posts: 21572
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? over
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 3:11 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? Since the votes are almost evenly split, it doesn't look like my question was based on any biases...
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 3:26 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? Dr. Lecter wrote: Since the votes are almost evenly split, it doesn't look like my question was based on any biases... MTC sure influenced some votes. But really, tracking makes this seem more apt. for your benchmark now.
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| Mon Jun 22, 2009 3:38 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? Loking good for the "More"-bunch so far...
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Wed Jun 24, 2009 1:20 pm |
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Mandeep
The Dark Knight
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2009 11:22 pm
Posts: 740
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? With 50 million today
24 million Thursday
and at least 90 and more likely closer to 100 million weekend.
Yeah its happening.
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| Wed Jun 24, 2009 1:24 pm |
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2001
Another You
Joined: Mon Apr 30, 2007 5:38 am
Posts: 4556
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? It breaks 160m+ even with just a 50m OD and a multiplier as stinking as HP5.
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| Wed Jun 24, 2009 2:01 pm |
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Mandeep
The Dark Knight
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2009 11:22 pm
Posts: 740
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Re: Transformers 2 5-Day OW - OVER or UNDER $165 million? weekend will be much better then Hp5.
If Hp5 got 77 million with fanboys and some regular movie goers.
I think Tf2 is getting 90+ million.
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ACH! Unsere Unterseeboot sind stiehlen mit eine dog und baby und Art Garfunkel!
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| Wed Jun 24, 2009 2:08 pm |
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