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STEVE MASON LIVES! Friday Early Estimates
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=51136		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Michael A [ Sat May 16, 2009 1:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: STEVE MASON LIVES! Friday Early Estimates
well, guessing low for A&D should pay off for me, but my big hopes for ST will hurt me a little, I was going around a 43% drop or so.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Sat May 16, 2009 1:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: STEVE MASON LIVES! Friday Early Estimates
I said this couple of days back. Super strong hold on sun/mon implied much smaller increase on friday. We saw this with TDK and we are seeing with trek. This is in no way bad. It will still have solid multiplier like TDK had.
Author:  Michael A [ Sat May 16, 2009 1:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: STEVE MASON LIVES! Friday Early Estimates
Considering the fact that it is a ST movie, and it already over-performed OW, anything under a 55% drop is excellent, I was just guessing more.
Author:  Bryan_smith [ Sat May 16, 2009 2:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: STEVE MASON LIVES! Friday Early Estimates
as I posted in the other thread, this is what he posted on facebook;

Steve Mason is reporting EXCLUSIVE EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY BOX OFFICE ESTIMATES: ANGELS & DEMONS-$16M Fri/$45M 3-Day, STAR TREK-$12.25M Fri/$39M 3-Day, WOLVERINE-$4.2M Fri/$14M 3-Day, GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS-$2M Fri/$6.1M 3-Day, OBSESSED-$1.3M Fri/$4.1M 3-Day. Also gearing up for Game 7 at Staple's on Sunday! Twitter@LAMase


a little more info, and he also had Wolverine holding on better than anyone thought...
Author:  BK [ Sat May 16, 2009 2:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: STEVE MASON LIVES! Friday Early Estimates
Under 40% drop was retarded and never possible.
I said somewhere it'd drop better than typical blockbusters and around 50%.
It drops 49% with a 39 and taking 79 as the OW of ST.
I don't understand how people, time and again, continue to have such overly optimistic expectations.
In this age a 50% drop for a movie like this is fantastic.
Sub 40% just reeks of hopelessness and foolishness.

This is compounded by the idiotic Tuesday it may increase predictions. What kind of evidence was there to back that? None.
The Thursday increase is similar. Movies like this don't increase on their first Thursday.

Anyhow I'm hoping it beats my prediction and gets a 43.45 which is a 45% drop of 79.
That way 200m becomes much more of a reality by May's end.
Author:  Jedi Master Carr [ Sat May 16, 2009 2:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: STEVE MASON LIVES! Friday Early Estimates
I don't see how it is disappointing. It should make about 240-260 which is amazing.
Author:  MGKC [ Sat May 16, 2009 3:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: STEVE MASON LIVES! Friday Early Estimates
Magnus wrote:
shawman wrote:
I said this couple of days back. Super strong hold on sun/mon implied much smaller increase on friday. We saw this with TDK and we are seeing with trek. This is in no way bad. It will still have solid multiplier like TDK had.


I think SM1/IM is a better comparison. SM1 had much better weekly drops than IM, but IM had a fairly bigger Friday increase.

Still, I think 120% is on the low-end. Even given the weekday drops, I think a 140% increase (about a 13.5m) was in store. Of course, the actuals could be higher so its early to pass judgement.

Weekday drops have nothing to do with the Friday increase on a non-holiday week (also assuming none of the weekdays are inflated). The biggest and really only determinant of the Friday increase is the Sunday to Monday drop. This drop truly shows the adult-to-kid ratio of a movie. Star Trek has an older audience, therefore better weekday numbers and a lower Friday increase.

I think we're going to see some very high Derby scores this weekend. No huge surprises, Angels and Demons looks to debut in the $39-44 million range.
Author:  mark66 [ Sat May 16, 2009 3:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: STEVE MASON LIVES! Friday Early Estimates
Let's wait and see... We all know that SM can be notoriously wrong with holdovers...
Author:  Nazgul9 [ Sat May 16, 2009 4:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: STEVE MASON LIVES! Friday Early Estimates
MG Casey wrote:
The biggest and really only determinant of the Friday increase is the Sunday to Monday drop. This drop truly shows the adult-to-kid ratio of a movie. Star Trek has an older audience, therefore better weekday numbers and a lower Friday increase.

That's what i was trying to tell them but they wouldn't listen. :(

Having said that, that's even a lower increases than what i had predicted. I hope it somehow manages to crack $40m when all is said and done. Troy went up 41% on saturday, maybe Trek can follow suit...
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Sat May 16, 2009 12:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: STEVE MASON LIVES! Friday Early Estimates
Magnus wrote:
shawman wrote:
I said this couple of days back. Super strong hold on sun/mon implied much smaller increase on friday. We saw this with TDK and we are seeing with trek. This is in no way bad. It will still have solid multiplier like TDK had.


I think SM1/IM is a better comparison. SM1 had much better weekly drops than IM, but IM had a fairly bigger Friday increase.

Still, I think 120% is on the low-end. Even given the weekday drops, I think a 140% increase (about a 13.5m) was in store. Of course, the actuals could be higher so its early to pass judgement.


If I am not wrong SM1 still did much better than Trek. I was comparing TDK only for monday drops and friday increase relative to other BB. Trek is behaving exactly like that. So I am expecting decent but not great sat increase but excellent sun/mon hold again for trek.
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