World of KJ
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/

Wednesday Numbers
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=51103		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  mark66 [ Thu May 14, 2009 1:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Wednesday Numbers
1. STAR TREK PARAMOUNT 3,849 5,775,000 1,500 n/a 98,987,090
2. X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE FOX 4,102 1,705,000 416 -57% 134,607,509
3. GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST WARNER BROS. 3,175 785,000 247 -30% 32,419,352
4. OBSESSED SONY 2,602 440,000 169 -33% 57,606,000
5. SOLOIST, THE DREAMWORKS 2,090 310,000 148 -30% 24,779,561
6. NEXT DAY AIR SUMMIT 1,138 295,000 259 n/a 5,102,711
7. EARTH DISNEY 1,794 280,000 156 -30% 27,046,000
8. 17 AGAIN WARNER BROS. 2,903 245,000 84 -22% 54,739,264
9. MONSTERS VS. ALIENS PARAMOUNT 2,185 197,000 90 -32% 187,348,273
10. FIGHTING UNIVERSAL 1,933 166,000 86 -40% 20,946,625
11. STATE OF PLAY UNIVERSAL 1,541 165,000 107 -44% 34,451,725
12. HANNAH MONTANA: THE MOVIE DISNEY 2,301 135,000 59 -25% 74,245,000

http://www.showbizdata.com/dailybox.cfm
Author:  mark66 [ Thu May 14, 2009 1:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
IRON MAN did $5,747,344 on its first Wednesday...
SPIDER-MAN 3 did $6,717,488
X-MEN 2 did $4,896,464
SPIDER-MAN 1 did $8,315,369
Author:  Nazgul9 [ Thu May 14, 2009 1:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
I don't like that number...
Author:  mark66 [ Thu May 14, 2009 1:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
Why?
IRON MAN opened with $23m over the weekend more, yet STAR TREK matches or beats IRON MAN's weekday numbers...
Author:  Nazgul9 [ Thu May 14, 2009 1:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
Iron-Man had a much bigger drop on monday yet it now registers similar numbers -> better midweek legs. Smaller monday drop for Trek probably means lower friday increase -> Iron-Man will pull ahead on friday by quite a lot.
Author:  mark66 [ Thu May 14, 2009 1:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
You do realize that we're comparing STAR TREK here to a $318m grosser, right? ;)
Author:  Nazgul9 [ Thu May 14, 2009 1:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
Yeah but that amazing monday raised hope for teriffic legs. Now it'll probably drop in the 45-55% range i predicted earlier for the 2nd weekend, still pretty good actually for a blockbuster but not extraordinary.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Thu May 14, 2009 2:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
I'd say a drop below 50% is pretty great for any big blockbuster. Especially since Star Trek already overperformed opening weekend. If it drops below 50% this next weekend, which it should, then it's doing really well.
Author:  Speevy [ Thu May 14, 2009 2:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
I don't understand why this board gets so worked up over day to day fluctuations. It is the long trend that should be looked at.

Iron Man Sunday-Wednesday drop: 77.9%

Star Trek Sunday-Wednesday drop: 72.6%

ST looks to be headed for a sub 45% drop, unless the Thursday drop is gigantic.
Author:  Excel [ Thu May 14, 2009 2:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
mark66 wrote:
Why?
IRON MAN opened with $23m over the weekend more, yet STAR TREK matches or beats IRON MAN's weekday numbers...


fyi, your comparing the wrong weekdays. treks weekdays are the 2nd set of weekdays in may, not the 1st like im had.
Author:  Nazgul9 [ Thu May 14, 2009 2:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
Speevy wrote:
ST looks to be headed for a sub 45% drop, unless the Thursday drop is gigantic.

Iron-Man increased 179% on its 2nd friday, Trek will probably increase about 125%.
Author:  Speevy [ Thu May 14, 2009 2:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
Nazgul9 wrote:
Speevy wrote:
ST looks to be headed for a sub 45% drop, unless the Thursday drop is gigantic.

Iron-Man increased 179% on its 2nd friday, Trek will probably increase about 125%.


Why would it increase so little? I'm thinking 150% or more. I can't remember the last time a big May blockbuster increased only 125%.
Author:  yearsago [ Thu May 14, 2009 2:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
Nazgul9 wrote:
Speevy wrote:
ST looks to be headed for a sub 45% drop, unless the Thursday drop is gigantic.

Iron-Man increased 179% on its 2nd friday, Trek will probably increase about 125%.



Didn't Wolverine have a 140+% increase?

I think ST matches at least that.
Author:  Nazgul9 [ Thu May 14, 2009 2:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
Wolverine increased only 140% and that is skewing younger, plus it was a week earlier. Trek's audience is older which resulted in a lower monday drop but it'll also mean a lower friday increase. I base my numbers on Troy, it was released on the same weekend and droped 64% on monday.
Author:  zingy [ Thu May 14, 2009 2:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
I see something like this...

Friday - $12.0m (+130%)
Saturday - $16.2m (+35%)
Sunday - $11.3m (-30%)

Weekend - $39.5m (-48.5%)
Author:  ben114 [ Thu May 14, 2009 3:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
While it won't make THAT much difference it's important to remember Star Trek opened a week later than Iron Man and Trek has had slightly more colleges/schools out in its first midweek period than Iron Man.
Author:  mark66 [ Thu May 14, 2009 4:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Actuals a bit higher: $5,790,449
Author:  MadGez [ Thu May 14, 2009 6:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
Its doing fine. Actually more than fine. Dont understand the dissapointment. The weekend drop will be closer to 40% than 50%
Author:  MGKC [ Thu May 14, 2009 6:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
MadGez wrote:
Its doing fine. Actually more than fine. Dont understand the dissapointment. The weekend drop will be closer to 40% than 50%

I still don't see how most of you guys are expected a better drop than Iron Man's 48.5%... Star Trek has a fanbase. It's gonna drop more than Iron Man. I'm saying around 50%.
Author:  Michael A [ Thu May 14, 2009 8:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
MG Casey wrote:
MadGez wrote:
Its doing fine. Actually more than fine. Dont understand the dissapointment. The weekend drop will be closer to 40% than 50%

I still don't see how most of you guys are expected a better drop than Iron Man's 48.5%... Star Trek has a fanbase. It's gonna drop more than Iron Man. I'm saying around 50%.

It has better wom and more hesitation to see on OW from mainstream audiences than IM did. It was easy for anyone to embrace IM, therefore it hit 98m OW. ST had the stigma and thus hit 75m OW. However, now that it's been out for a week the stigma should have been erased, and ST should be able to drop less, despite the fanbase.
I still don't see over a 45% drop, but not under a 40% drop either.
Author:  MGKC [ Fri May 15, 2009 12:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
John Savage wrote:
MG Casey wrote:
MadGez wrote:
Its doing fine. Actually more than fine. Dont understand the dissapointment. The weekend drop will be closer to 40% than 50%

I still don't see how most of you guys are expected a better drop than Iron Man's 48.5%... Star Trek has a fanbase. It's gonna drop more than Iron Man. I'm saying around 50%.

It has better wom and more hesitation to see on OW from mainstream audiences than IM did. It was easy for anyone to embrace IM, therefore it hit 98m OW. ST had the stigma and thus hit 75m OW. However, now that it's been out for a week the stigma should have been erased, and ST should be able to drop less, despite the fanbase.
I still don't see over a 45% drop, but not under a 40% drop either.

That sounds like a very subjective analysis. I wouldn't call it better WOM yet either. You're acting like Star Trek should have opened up to $100 million, but because of the "stigma" it only did $75 million.

I could maaaybe see your reasoning of some mainstream audiences needing convinced that it is good and waiting, but following that reasoning, that is just counterbalanced by Star Trek's bigger initial fanbase.
Author:  MadGez [ Fri May 15, 2009 5:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
MG Casey wrote:
John Savage wrote:
MG Casey wrote:
MadGez wrote:
Its doing fine. Actually more than fine. Dont understand the dissapointment. The weekend drop will be closer to 40% than 50%

I still don't see how most of you guys are expected a better drop than Iron Man's 48.5%... Star Trek has a fanbase. It's gonna drop more than Iron Man. I'm saying around 50%.

It has better wom and more hesitation to see on OW from mainstream audiences than IM did. It was easy for anyone to embrace IM, therefore it hit 98m OW. ST had the stigma and thus hit 75m OW. However, now that it's been out for a week the stigma should have been erased, and ST should be able to drop less, despite the fanbase.
I still don't see over a 45% drop, but not under a 40% drop either.

That sounds like a very subjective analysis. I wouldn't call it better WOM yet either. You're acting like Star Trek should have opened up to $100 million, but because of the "stigma" it only did $75 million.

I could maaaybe see your reasoning of some mainstream audiences needing convinced that it is good and waiting, but following that reasoning, that is just counterbalanced by Star Trek's bigger initial fanbase.


I think the $75m OW was incredible despite the stigma issue.

Anecdotally WOM seems to be even better than Iron Man's. And yes Star Trek is a frontloaded franchise but so too were Batman and Bond. The re-boots were able to hold up well due to great WOM. I suspect this will be the same. 45% would be about right, Im thinking 43%
Author:  Speevy [ Fri May 15, 2009 7:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
Nazgul9 wrote:
Wolverine increased only 140% and that is skewing younger, plus it was a week earlier. Trek's audience is older which resulted in a lower monday drop but it'll also mean a lower friday increase. I base my numbers on Troy, it was released on the same weekend and droped 64% on monday.


Troy was also an R rated 2 hour 45 minute historical epic. Star Trek has very little to do with it. Iron Man grabbed the same audiences that Star Trek did. Iron Man was 71% male and 64% over the age of 25. Yet it had no problem with huge increases every single Friday.
Author:  Nazgul9 [ Fri May 15, 2009 8:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
The most telling sign is the 64% monday drop and rather big midweek days throughout the week. This has to result in a lower friday increase, box office balances itself out. Even just a 140% increase would probably lead to about a 44m weekend and a 41% drop which... i dunno... just seems too good, even Batman Begins droped more and that opened on a wednesday. There are some crazy 50m predictions over at BOM, i fear they are in for a rude awakening come tomorrow. Personally, i see it doing between 38-41m.
Author:  Speevy [ Fri May 15, 2009 9:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Wednesday Numbers
You make some good points. We'll see in a couple hours who's theory ends up being true :)
Page 1 of 1 All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
http://www.phpbb.com/