BJ wrote:
in, I expect 100m in two days.
| World of KJ http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/ |
|
| Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/450m+ Club http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=50300 |
Page 1 of 6 |
| Author: | 2001 [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 12:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Transformers 2 225m+ 5-day/450m+ Club |
Now that this forum is in "summer" status and summer start is less than a month away, let me start another summer club. 10.0m midnights 50.0m Wednesday Thursday: 34.8m (-42%) Friday: 43.5m (+25%) Saturday: 47.9m (+10%) Sunday: 40.7m (-15%) 5-day OW - 226.9m 3-day OW - 132.1m All Time Domestic BO 1. Titanic - 600.8m 2. The Dark Knight - 533.3m 3. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 475.0m Top Films of the decade adjusted 1. The Dark Knight - 533.3m 2. Shrek 2 - 511.6m 3. Spider-Man - 500.3m 4. Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen - 475.0m 5. Pirates of the Caribbean 2 - 465.3m Gold Members: 2001 BJ Munkpool the ultimate biu Rev loyalfromlondon McSteamy |
|
| Author: | Michael A [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 12:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
hahaha no |
|
| Author: | BJ [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 12:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
in, I expect 100m in two days. |
|
| Author: | 2001 [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 12:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
BJ wrote: in, I expect 100m in two days.
|
|
| Author: | Chippy [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
Yeah that sounds about right. |
|
| Author: | the ultimate biu [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
In As crazy as it sounds |
|
| Author: | Dr. Lecter [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
No...I really kinda doubt it'll beat Dead Man's Chest. Transformers' WoM doesn't even compare to the first Pirates' WoM. |
|
| Author: | O [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
I'm getting a huge Shrek 2 feel from Transformers 2 box office wise, where it will act as a "comfort sequel" in a sense. Even if it sucks, everyone will go see it in droves due to the goodwill of the first film. June being relatively light will help this immensely opening weekend. I see $425 m + very possible, but getting to $475 m + depends a lot on the quality of the film. The original pulled in $155,405,412 in its first 6 days, and being a sequel, $200 m + in 5 days isn't too much of a stretch. |
|
| Author: | 2001 [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
Magnus wrote: I wouldn't be surprised by that 5-day...but I think it's going to be insanley frontloaded and don't see anything above 425m for it. Right now, I'd say 195m 5-day and a 410m total. It only needs a 2.25 multiplier from that 5-day which is not that far from what HP5 did (2.09). |
|
| Author: | O [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
Magnus wrote: O wrote: I'm getting a huge Shrek 2 feel from Transformers 2 box office wise, where it will act as a "comfort sequel" in a sense. Even if it sucks, everyone will go see it in droves due to the goodwill of the first film. June being relatively light will help this immensely opening weekend. I see $425 m + very possible, but getting to $475 m + depends a lot on the quality of the film. The original pulled in $155,405,412 in its first 6 days, and being a sequel, $200 m + in 5 days isn't too much of a stretch. The thing is that I really don't feel Transformers audience expanded as much as Shrek did. Keep in mind this is a two year gap, not a three year gap like Shrek 2 and POTC2 was. And the original Shrek and POTC had MUCH better WOM. I mean, I still think its going to end up breaking 400m+, which would be a major increase over original, but I don't see a MASSIVE increase. We won't see a Dark Knight jump up for sure and I do see it lagging Shrek 2's jump up. The main thing against this club happening is that Transformers more or less made 50% of its total or so in its first 6 days. It was incredibly frontloaded for the first film in a franchise. |
|
| Author: | 2001 [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 1:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
Magnus wrote: With frontloading these days, 2.25 5-day is quite far from a 2.1. What I meant is that this can manage a 2.25x if a second ever most frontloaded franchise film did a 2.1x. |
|
| Author: | Nazgul9 [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 2:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
No. Wouldn't even call $400m a lock yet. |
|
| Author: | Rev [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 2:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
IN  65m 30m 40m 50m 30m 215m 5 straight days of 30m+
|
|
| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 2:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
O wrote: Magnus wrote: O wrote: I'm getting a huge Shrek 2 feel from Transformers 2 box office wise, where it will act as a "comfort sequel" in a sense. Even if it sucks, everyone will go see it in droves due to the goodwill of the first film. June being relatively light will help this immensely opening weekend. I see $425 m + very possible, but getting to $475 m + depends a lot on the quality of the film. The original pulled in $155,405,412 in its first 6 days, and being a sequel, $200 m + in 5 days isn't too much of a stretch. The thing is that I really don't feel Transformers audience expanded as much as Shrek did. Keep in mind this is a two year gap, not a three year gap like Shrek 2 and POTC2 was. And the original Shrek and POTC had MUCH better WOM. I mean, I still think its going to end up breaking 400m+, which would be a major increase over original, but I don't see a MASSIVE increase. We won't see a Dark Knight jump up for sure and I do see it lagging Shrek 2's jump up. The main thing against this club happening is that Transformers more or less made 50% of its total or so in its first 6 days. It was incredibly frontloaded for the first film in a franchise. Plus I doubt it will expand its fan base. I think 65% of TF OW were Men and under 25. So it is not making 475M with that kind of fan base. Plus 2 year gap is good enough to build huge anticipation and marketing so far have been mediocre. I would say 170M(5-day)/345M domestic. |
|
| Author: | Kris K [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 2:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
I think the legs will be dire, not because of 'quality' but just because of sheer fan rush. I think $400M is the top for this. |
|
| Author: | BJ [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 3:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
Rev wrote: IN 65m 30m 40m 50m 30m 215m 5 straight days of 30m+ wed: 65m thur: 35.5m -45% fri: 39m +10% sat: 43m +10% sun: 38.5m -10% 230m 5-Day mon: 20.90m -45% 252m 6-Day tue: 16.7m -20% wed: 11.55m -30% thur: 10.00m -12% fri: 20.00m +100% 300m 10-Day sat: 14.0m -30% (4th) 465m-480m top out. |
|
| Author: | Rev [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 3:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
BJ wrote: Rev wrote: IN 65m 30m 40m 50m 30m 215m 5 straight days of 30m+ wed: 65m thur: 35.5m -45% fri: 39m +10% sat: 43m +10% sun: 38.5m -10% 230m 5-Day mon: 20.90m -45% 252m 6-Day tue: 16.7m -20% wed: 11.55m -30% thur: 10.00m -12% fri: 20.00m +100% 300m 10-Day sat: 14.0m -30% (4th) 465m-480m top out. SHOW OFF! 
|
|
| Author: | Speevy [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 4:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
Magnus wrote: And the original Shrek and POTC had MUCH better WOM. And what is that based on? Yahoo POTC: A-(12 all time) Transformers: A-(13 all time) Shrek: B+ Cinemascore POTC: A Transformers: A Shrek: 96% favorable |
|
| Author: | Speevy [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 5:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
IMDB isn't exactly as mainstream friendly as Yahoo and Cinemascore. |
|
| Author: | Speevy [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 5:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
Or against it when we look at the anti-Michael Bay, anti-Transformers sentiment from the geeky fans (which the internet is made up of) of the show that populate IMDB. |
|
| Author: | Corpse [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 8:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
I'm with Magnus on this in that the 5-Day is more likely than the total. At the moment, I'm going with 190/400, but can see a 200m 5-Day, low 400 finish. |
|
| Author: | MadGez [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 8:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
The 5-day for this will be jawdropping. Absolutely jaw-dropping. |
|
| Author: | Biggestgeekever [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 9:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
Speevy wrote: IMDB isn't exactly as mainstream friendly as Yahoo and Cinemascore. |
|
| Author: | Speevy [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 9:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
Biggestgeekever wrote: Speevy wrote: IMDB isn't exactly as mainstream friendly as Yahoo and Cinemascore. Like? |
|
| Author: | Biggestgeekever [ Sat Apr 04, 2009 9:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Transformers 2 210m+ 5-day/475m+ Club |
Speevy wrote: Biggestgeekever wrote: Speevy wrote: IMDB isn't exactly as mainstream friendly as Yahoo and Cinemascore. Like? |
|
| Page 1 of 6 | All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ] |
| Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group http://www.phpbb.com/ |
|