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March Predictions
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Author:  jmovies [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 3:17 pm ]
Post subject:  March Predictions

Another big month coming up! Here are the films coming out this month.......

Watchmen (March 6)
The Last House on the Left (2009) (March 13)
Miss March (March 13)
A Perfect Getaway (March 13)
Race to Witch Mountain (March 13)
Duplicity (March 20)
I Love You, Man (March 20)
Knowing (March 20)
12 Rounds (March 27)
The Accidental Husband (March 27)
Adventureland (March 27)
The Haunting in Connecticut (March 27)
The Janky Promoters (March 27)
Monsters Vs. Aliens (March 27)

My predictions

Watchmen- 65.5/178.3
The Last House on the Left (2009)- 16.2/41.2
Miss March- 7.3/17.5
A Perfect Getaway- 3.3/7.2
Race to Witch Mountain- 36.2/115.3
Duplicity- 23.5/75.1
I Love You, Man- 17.5/65.0
Knowing- 8.4/22.1
12 Rounds- 16.3/48.7
The Accidental Husband- 3.0/5.7
Adventureland- 9.5/34.2
The Haunting in Connecticut- 5.6/13.9
The Janky Promoters- 8.8/17.3
Monsters Vs. Aliens- 55.3/205.2

Top 5

1. Monsters Vs. Aliens- 55.3/205.2
2. Watchmen- 65.5/178.3
3. Race to Witch Mountain- 36.2/115.3
4. Duplicity- 23.5/75.1
5. I Love You, Man- 17.5/65.0

Author:  billybobwashere [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 3:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

my predictions for March now are much higher than they would've been a couple months ago.

Watchmen- 73 / 200
The Last House on the Left (2009)- 17 / 40
Miss March- 9 / 25
A Perfect Getaway- no idea
Race to Witch Mountain- 35 / 125
Duplicity- 20 / 70
I Love You, Man- 18 / 65
Knowing- 24 / 70
12 Rounds- 10 / 27
The Accidental Husband- 4 / 10
Adventureland- 15 / 45
The Haunting in Connecticut- 6 / 13
The Janky Promoters- no idea
Monsters Vs. Aliens- 50 / 190

Author:  BK [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 9:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

I'm just going to bold movies that have a chance of repeating a Taken/Blart/Friday/HJNTIY
3 are given bold, Watchmen, Mountain & Monsters so the rest will match the criteria above.

jmovies wrote:
Watchmen (March 6)
The Last House on the Left (2009) (March 13)
Miss March (March 13)
A Perfect Getaway (March 13)
Race to Witch Mountain (March 13)
Duplicity (March 20)
I Love You, Man (March 20)
Knowing (March 20)
12 Rounds (March 27)
The Accidental Husband (March 27)
Adventureland (March 27)
The Haunting in Connecticut (March 27)
The Janky Promoters (March 27)
Monsters Vs. Aliens (March 27)


All 3 in one weekend of March 20th. If all are good it'll be even better.
The International disappointed me BO-wise and so far we've had disappointments in:
Pink Panther 2, International, Inkheart, quite a few to match the breakouts.

Author:  BJ [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 10:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

Watchmen - 89.5m|360m
The Last House on the Left (2009) - 15m|40m
Miss March - 10m|30m
A Perfect Getaway - 10m|40m
Race to Witch Mountain- 35m / 140m
Duplicity- 20m|100m
I Love You, Man- 15m|50m
Knowing- 25m|90m
12 Rounds- 15m|35m
The Accidental Husband- 10|30m
Adventureland- 20m|90m
The Haunting in Connecticut- 10m|30m
The Janky Promoters- 15m|40m
Monsters Vs. Aliens- 30m|150m

Author:  jmovies [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 10:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

BJ wrote:
Watchmen - 89.5m|360m


:thumbsup:

Author:  movies35 [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 10:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

Is it me, or am I the only person that just isn't feeling Watchmen or Monsters vs. Aliens?

Author:  Keyser Söze [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 11:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

BJ wrote:
Watchmen - 89.5m|360m
The Last House on the Left (2009) - 15m|40m
Miss March - 10m|30m
A Perfect Getaway - 10m|40m
Race to Witch Mountain- 35m / 140m
Duplicity- 20m|100m
I Love You, Man- 15m|50m
Knowing- 25m|90m
12 Rounds- 15m|35m
The Accidental Husband- 10|30m
Adventureland- 20m|90m
The Haunting in Connecticut- 10m|30m
The Janky Promoters- 15m|40m
Monsters Vs. Aliens- 30m|150m


You think M&A with 3D will open to just 30M but have 5x legs in march.

Author:  BJ [ Sun Feb 15, 2009 12:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

shawman wrote:
BJ wrote:
Watchmen - 89.5m|360m
The Last House on the Left (2009) - 15m|40m
Miss March - 10m|30m
A Perfect Getaway - 10m|40m
Race to Witch Mountain- 35m / 140m
Duplicity- 20m|100m
I Love You, Man- 15m|50m
Knowing- 25m|90m
12 Rounds- 15m|35m
The Accidental Husband- 10|30m
Adventureland- 20m|90m
The Haunting in Connecticut- 10m|30m
The Janky Promoters- 15m|40m
Monsters Vs. Aliens- 30m|150m


You think M&A with 3D will open to just 30M but have 5x legs in march.

one thing that has really picked up this year is the multipliers, I don't think the film has much up front appeal, but it can hold very well especially with 3-D on its side.

Author:  Michael A [ Sun Feb 15, 2009 3:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

movies35 wrote:
Is it me, or am I the only person that just isn't feeling Watchmen or Monsters vs. Aliens?


I'm losing faith, I've been hearing universal buzz for watchmen, but looking in other places (slightly less "dorky") I've realized that some people think it looks terrible. Although I still say the vast majority are gonna wait around for WOM and reactions, and a good time to see it. So I think it could start out strong, drop big, and then pick up really well after that. I see
OW:66m, Total: 205m, a few days ago I was calling for 30m more than that. Mvs.A, on the other hand should start big and stay big, hitting with families and indie teens (just like Coraline, or Bolt but to a much bigger level) OW: 45m, Total: 175m

Author:  MadGez [ Sun Feb 15, 2009 6:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

Watchmen - 63.7m|149m
The Last House on the Left (2009) - 17m|40m
Miss March - 8m|24m
A Perfect Getaway - 7m|20m
Race to Witch Mountain- 42m / 158m
Duplicity- 29m|101m
I Love You, Man- 14m|43m
Knowing- 26m|81m
12 Rounds- 11m|25m
The Accidental Husband- 5|13m
Adventureland- 10m|33m
The Haunting in Connecticut- 10m|30m
Monsters Vs. Aliens- 45m|155m

I wouldnt be surprised if Race to WM steels the thunder from Monsters.

Author:  Kris K [ Sun Feb 15, 2009 10:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

Watchmen - 40/120
The Last House on the Left (2009) - 17m|41m
Miss March - 6m|13m
A Perfect Getaway - i have never heard of this film, so, who knows?
Race to Witch Mountain- 32 / 102.4m
Duplicity- 21m|65m
I Love You, Man- 20.5m|61.5m
Knowing- 18m|54m
12 Rounds- never heard of this either...
The Accidental Husband- 4/11
Adventureland- 11.5/35
The Haunting in Connecticut- 8m|21m
Monsters Vs. Aliens- 41m|170m

Author:  2001 [ Sun Feb 15, 2009 11:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

Race to Witch Mountain is overestimated, big time.

Author:  movies35 [ Sun Feb 15, 2009 2:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

Benjamin Milk wrote:
movies35 wrote:
Is it me, or am I the only person that just isn't feeling Watchmen or Monsters vs. Aliens?


I'm losing faith, I've been hearing universal buzz for watchmen, but looking in other places (slightly less "dorky") I've realized that some people think it looks terrible. Although I still say the vast majority are gonna wait around for WOM and reactions, and a good time to see it. So I think it could start out strong, drop big, and then pick up really well after that. I see
OW:66m, Total: 205m, a few days ago I was calling for 30m more than that. Mvs.A, on the other hand should start big and stay big, hitting with families and indie teens (just like Coraline, or Bolt but to a much bigger level) OW: 45m, Total: 175m


I just can't see Watchmen making more than $120 overall. I'm not sensing any anticipation for it outside of the internet. I just don't think it's the next 300, which EVERYONE I know wanted to see it. Watchmen kind of reminds me of Grindhouse, just it won't do as awful as that.

Monsters vs. Aliens though... when I first saw the trailer last summer, I said "there is no way that is going to catch on." It just looks like shit, and I can't imagine tons of families going to see it. But we shall see. If they're huge, those will definitely be big surprises for me.

Author:  DIB2 [ Sun Feb 15, 2009 3:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

Watchmen - 59.m|200m
The Last House on the Left (2009) - 21m|47m
Miss March - 5m|15m
A Perfect Getaway - 3m|8m
Race to Witch Mountain- 38m / 171m
Duplicity- 15m|42m
I Love You, Man- 14.1m|48m
Knowing- 21m|60m
12 Rounds- 6m/13.5m
The Accidental Husband- 6|16.5m
Adventureland- 12m|33m
The Haunting in Connecticut- 10.5m|22m
Monsters Vs. Aliens- 60m|216m

Author:  Libs [ Sun Feb 15, 2009 3:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

A Perfect Getaway and The Accidental Husband aren't opening in March anymore, by the way.

Author:  Harry Warden [ Sun Feb 15, 2009 3:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

Libs wrote:
A Perfect Getaway and The Accidental Husband aren't opening in March anymore, by the way.


Makes sense since we would have had to see something marketing-related for the former by now if it was planning on opening next month. It sounds like it could be entertaining so hopefully, it opens soon.

Author:  Michael A [ Sun Feb 15, 2009 4:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

movies35 wrote:
Benjamin Milk wrote:
movies35 wrote:
Is it me, or am I the only person that just isn't feeling Watchmen or Monsters vs. Aliens?


I'm losing faith, I've been hearing universal buzz for watchmen, but looking in other places (slightly less "dorky") I've realized that some people think it looks terrible. Although I still say the vast majority are gonna wait around for WOM and reactions, and a good time to see it. So I think it could start out strong, drop big, and then pick up really well after that. I see
OW:66m, Total: 205m, a few days ago I was calling for 30m more than that. Mvs.A, on the other hand should start big and stay big, hitting with families and indie teens (just like Coraline, or Bolt but to a much bigger level) OW: 45m, Total: 175m


I just can't see Watchmen making more than $120 overall. I'm not sensing any anticipation for it outside of the internet. I just don't think it's the next 300, which EVERYONE I know wanted to see it. Watchmen kind of reminds me of Grindhouse, just it won't do as awful as that.

Monsters vs. Aliens though... when I first saw the trailer last summer, I said "there is no way that is going to catch on." It just looks like shit, and I can't imagine tons of families going to see it. But we shall see. If they're huge, those will definitely be big surprises for me.


Excuse me for asking but about what age group are you? The late high school/early college group is pretty into this movie, there definitely is a feeling of "what is that? That looks dumb?" But there is definitely a rabid fanbase that 300 did not have. I promise you that. So it should jump out of the gate, after that it depends utterly on WOM and if the people who are thinking "that looks okay but I'm not sure" get pulled in or not. 1 thing is for sure, it will need strong male support, as most females won't touch it.

Author:  movies35 [ Sun Feb 15, 2009 5:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

Benjamin Milk wrote:
movies35 wrote:
Benjamin Milk wrote:
movies35 wrote:
Is it me, or am I the only person that just isn't feeling Watchmen or Monsters vs. Aliens?


I'm losing faith, I've been hearing universal buzz for watchmen, but looking in other places (slightly less "dorky") I've realized that some people think it looks terrible. Although I still say the vast majority are gonna wait around for WOM and reactions, and a good time to see it. So I think it could start out strong, drop big, and then pick up really well after that. I see
OW:66m, Total: 205m, a few days ago I was calling for 30m more than that. Mvs.A, on the other hand should start big and stay big, hitting with families and indie teens (just like Coraline, or Bolt but to a much bigger level) OW: 45m, Total: 175m


I just can't see Watchmen making more than $120 overall. I'm not sensing any anticipation for it outside of the internet. I just don't think it's the next 300, which EVERYONE I know wanted to see it. Watchmen kind of reminds me of Grindhouse, just it won't do as awful as that.

Monsters vs. Aliens though... when I first saw the trailer last summer, I said "there is no way that is going to catch on." It just looks like shit, and I can't imagine tons of families going to see it. But we shall see. If they're huge, those will definitely be big surprises for me.


Excuse me for asking but about what age group are you? The late high school/early college group is pretty into this movie, there definitely is a feeling of "what is that? That looks dumb?" But there is definitely a rabid fanbase that 300 did not have. I promise you that. So it should jump out of the gate, after that it depends utterly on WOM and if the people who are thinking "that looks okay but I'm not sure" get pulled in or not. 1 thing is for sure, it will need strong male support, as most females won't touch it.


I'm a senior in high school.

Author:  Michael A [ Sun Feb 15, 2009 7:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

movies35 wrote:
Benjamin Milk wrote:
movies35 wrote:
Benjamin Milk wrote:
movies35 wrote:
Is it me, or am I the only person that just isn't feeling Watchmen or Monsters vs. Aliens?


I'm losing faith, I've been hearing universal buzz for watchmen, but looking in other places (slightly less "dorky") I've realized that some people think it looks terrible. Although I still say the vast majority are gonna wait around for WOM and reactions, and a good time to see it. So I think it could start out strong, drop big, and then pick up really well after that. I see
OW:66m, Total: 205m, a few days ago I was calling for 30m more than that. Mvs.A, on the other hand should start big and stay big, hitting with families and indie teens (just like Coraline, or Bolt but to a much bigger level) OW: 45m, Total: 175m


I just can't see Watchmen making more than $120 overall. I'm not sensing any anticipation for it outside of the internet. I just don't think it's the next 300, which EVERYONE I know wanted to see it. Watchmen kind of reminds me of Grindhouse, just it won't do as awful as that.

Monsters vs. Aliens though... when I first saw the trailer last summer, I said "there is no way that is going to catch on." It just looks like shit, and I can't imagine tons of families going to see it. But we shall see. If they're huge, those will definitely be big surprises for me.


Excuse me for asking but about what age group are you? The late high school/early college group is pretty into this movie, there definitely is a feeling of "what is that? That looks dumb?" But there is definitely a rabid fanbase that 300 did not have. I promise you that. So it should jump out of the gate, after that it depends utterly on WOM and if the people who are thinking "that looks okay but I'm not sure" get pulled in or not. 1 thing is for sure, it will need strong male support, as most females won't touch it.


I'm a senior in high school.


Wow, well I guess its' just personal accounts than, because I have heard a lot of anticipation and buzz for this at my school.

Author:  Magic Mike [ Thu Feb 19, 2009 3:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

I thought WATCHMEN looked interesting from the teaser, and then I saw a different trailer before FRIDAY THE 13TH and I now think it looks kind of stupid. My cousin thought so too, however she is a girl ;).

If will be lucky if it gets to 100 Million, IMO. I haven't heard anyone talking about it outside of online.

Author:  Michael A [ Thu Feb 19, 2009 2:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

[quote="jmovies"]Another big month coming up! Here are the films coming out this month.......

Watchmen (March 6)
The Last House on the Left (2009) (March 13)
Miss March (March 13)
A Perfect Getaway (March 13)
Race to Witch Mountain (March 13)
Duplicity (March 20)
I Love You, Man (March 20)
Knowing (March 20)
12 Rounds (March 27)
The Accidental Husband (March 27)
Adventureland (March 27)
The Haunting in Connecticut (March 27)
The Janky Promoters (March 27)
Monsters Vs. Aliens (March 27)

My predictions
Watchmen- 67m/205m (big time)
The Last House on the Left- 12m/28m (looks weird)
Miss March- 6.5m/15m (fired up, except weirder)
Race To Witch Mountain- 35m/125m (big with 8-12 boys, ala Mall Cop)
Duplicity- 28m/105m (breakout of the month)
I love you, Man- 21m/72m (little better than FSM, thanks to more marketing)
Knowing- 16m/ 42m (will get lost in the shufle)
12 rounds- 14m/ 40m (standard thriller)
Adventureland- 8m/25m (teen comedies that aren't apatow usually suck at BO)
Haunting In Connecticut- 18m/40m (not much horror this month)
Janky Promoters- 10m/25m (don't know what this is, throwaway number)
Monsters Vs. Aliens- 45m/180m (lots of marketing, long legs thanks to an empty marketing.)

I expect the event films of this month to really mix up the BO trend, they should explode and rain money, but most other movies will get lost in the shuffle. I gave big numbers to Duplicity, and I love you, Man for their strong marketing and star power, plus something has to breakout a little and these have the best shot.

Author:  jmovies [ Thu Feb 19, 2009 4:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

Mike wrote:
I thought WATCHMEN looked interesting from the teaser, and then I saw a different trailer before FRIDAY THE 13TH and I now think it looks kind of stupid. My cousin thought so too, however she is a girl ;).

If will be lucky if it gets to 100 Million, IMO. I haven't heard anyone talking about it outside of online.


It's pretty safe to say that $100 million is a lock for Watchmen. With the way the economy is, it could play with $100M in its OW. Presales are currently out pacing 300 through the same point.

Author:  Michael A [ Thu Feb 19, 2009 7:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: March Predictions

jmovies wrote:
Mike wrote:
I thought WATCHMEN looked interesting from the teaser, and then I saw a different trailer before FRIDAY THE 13TH and I now think it looks kind of stupid. My cousin thought so too, however she is a girl ;).

If will be lucky if it gets to 100 Million, IMO. I haven't heard anyone talking about it outside of online.


It's pretty safe to say that $100 million is a lock for Watchmen. With the way the economy is, it could play with $100M in its OW. Presales are currently out pacing 300 through the same point.


although i am rooting for Watchmen, presales don't mean much, Watchmen has a strong fanbase that 300 just didn't, so I expect a lot of early strength. I still say 60m is a lock OW, and 120m is a lock total. Anything more depends on WOM and how this plays mainstream.

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