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| 2005, reversed: How long does the streak go? http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=49284 |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | 2005, reversed: How long does the streak go? |
So back in 2005 we went on an unbearable 19-week streak of the box office being down from 2004, greatly hurting the box office for a good long while. Now, we're something far, far more awesome: A multi-week streak of year-to-year increases. Since the final weekend of 2008, we've been up from the previous year in total weekend box office, and with this weekend that streak goes to eight weeks. So, how long until we fall behind? Looking at last spring, we had a lot of weak weekends, with only one between now and May topping $100 million. In fact, the May weekends are "weak" enough that could also top those those weekends with sheer large amounts of releases. It could conceivably go 24 or 25 weeks, until we hit what was a far stronger June than what is lined up. I'm gonna say that it goes 23 weeks, before getting killed by the first weekend in June. |
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| Author: | El Maskado [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2005, reversed: How long does the streak go? |
probably somewhere around april |
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| Author: | 2001 [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:28 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2005, reversed: How long does the streak go? |
Last week of April will fall under 2008. |
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| Author: | Libs [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:29 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2005, reversed: How long does the streak go? |
2001 wrote: Last week of April will fall under 2008. Yeah, this is possible, mostly because April 25-27, 2008 was uncharacteristically strong, since the final weekend of April is usually either a total dumping ground or just not that strong (the obvious exception would be Mean Girls in 2004). Then again, Obsessed and The Soloist are opening on that date and those could both be solid performers. |
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| Author: | O [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 2:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2005, reversed: How long does the streak go? |
Some possibilities: Last weekend of February: Very likely won't happen, but if the new Tyler Perry movie drops over 60%, and Fired Up AND Chun Li flop, and Jonas Bros movie doesn't top $25 m, then it could happen. 3rd weekend of March: Also not likely, but only would happen if all three openers flop badly. 3rd weekend of April: Not likely, but would only happen if 2/3 of the openers flops. The Forbidden Kingdom/Forgetting Sarah Marshall combo last year was $39 m, and so 2/3 openers would make the weekends comparable. But this could be overcome if the third opener overperforms (ex. 17 Again doing $25 m or something). 4th weekend of April: Too close to call. The Baby Mama/Harold and Kumaar combo is more competitive than this year's openers, but the April film slate is strong this year, so holdovers could propel the weekend ahead of last year. 1st weekend of May: Its close to call, but I'm going to give this weekend to 2008. If the streak doesn't break by then, I think it will either the second or third weekend of May. So I think we're looking at weekend 18 - 21 sometime where it will stop. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 6:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 2005, reversed: How long does the streak go? |
Could be the first weekend of May if Wolverine is a 5-day opener. Or else the Angels and Demons weekend is guaranteed to fall below. |
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