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Friday Numbers
http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=49280
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Author:  mark66 [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 11:57 am ]
Post subject:  Friday Numbers

MCN:
http://www.moviecitynews.com/

Friday the 13th 19.2 3105 - 19.2
He's Just Not That Into You 5.0 3175 -52% 40.5
Taken 4.6 3109 -25% 63.3
Confessions of a Shopaholic 4.3 2507 - 4.3
Coraline 3.0 2320 -34% 23.2
The International 2.6 2364 - 2.6
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2.4 2965 -15% 101.2
The Pink Panther 2 1.9 3245 -44% 15.2
Push 1.7 2313 -51% 14.1
Slumdog Millionaire 1.5 1634 -23% 80.9
Also Debuting
Under the Sea 0.1 49 . 0.1
Billu Barber 0.1 70 . 0.1
Two Lovers 20,900 6 - 20,900


BOG
http://www.boxofficeguru.com/021409.htm

$19m F13
$4.3m SHOPAHOLIC
$2.6m INTERNATIONAL

-52 % INTO YOU
-33 % COARLINE
-49 % PUSH
-43 % PINK 2

Author:  mark66 [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

ERC 3 day weekend estimates:

1 FRIDAY THE 13TH Warner Bros. · 3105 · $46,000,000 · $14,815 · $46,000,000
2 HE'S JUST NOT THAT INTO YOU Warner Bros. · 3175 · $21,000,000 · $6,614 · $56,500,000
3 TAKEN Fox · 3109 · $19,000,000 · $6,111 · $78,000,000
4 CONFESSIONS OF A SHOPAHOLIC Walt Disney · 2507 · $17,000,000 · $6,781 · $17,000,000
5 CORALINE Focus · 2320 · $14,000,000 · $6,034 · $33,000,000
6 PAUL BLART MALL COP Sony · 2965 · $11,000,000 · $3,710 · $110,000,000
7 THE INTERNATIONAL Sony · 2364 · $9,000,000 · $3,807 · $9,000,000
8 THE PINK PANTHER 2 Sony · 3245 · $8,500,000 · $2,619 · $23,000,000
9 PUSH Summit · 2313 · $7,000,000 · $3,026 · $18,000,000
10 SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE Fox Searchlight · 1634 · $7,000,000 · $4,284 · $85,000,000
11 GRAN TORINO Warner Bros. · 2303 · $6,250,000 · $2,714 · $127,500,000
12 THE UNINVITED Paramount · 1803 · $5,500,000 · $3,050 · $25,000,000

http://www.ercboxoffice.com/

Author:  Jonathan [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

From the other thread:

Rorschach wrote:
I see this pattern for F13:

Fri: 20m
Sat: 15m (25% drop)
Sun: 11m (27% drop)
Mon: 5.5m (50% drop)

3-day: 46m
4-day: 51.5m


In 2004 (Last time Valentine's fell on a Saturday), most date-heavy films (As I think F13 might be) fell 40-55%, and with added frontloadedness from Friday that might be off-put by Valentine's, it'll probably drop at least 40%. I'd expect:

Friday - $19M
Saturday - $14M (-25%)
Sunday - $8M (-42%)
Monday - $4.4M (-45%)

For a $40 million 3-day, $44.4 million 4-day. Which, BTW, would still be insane.

So, over/under Cloverfield total? I say under.

Author:  Jonathan [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

mark66 wrote:
ERC 3 day weekend estimates:

3 TAKEN Fox · 3109 · $19,000,000 · $6,111 · $78,000,000
6 PAUL BLART MALL COP Sony · 2965 · $11,000,000 · $3,710 · $110,000,000

http://www.ercboxoffice.com/


Wait, what?

Author:  torrino [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

That would be absolutely ridiculous...

and, if that's the case, the MPAA should be promoting piracy!

It would also be ridiculous for Gran Torino...which will probably make more than The Departed.

Author:  Jonathan [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

da torri wrote:
That would be absolutely ridiculous...

and, if that's the case, the MPAA should be promoting piracy!

It would also be ridiculous for Gran Torino...which will probably make more than The Departed.


Probably? It'll only be $9 million away by the end of the weekend.

Also: With those kind of numbers for F13, anyone else thinking Taken benefited greatly from sneak-ins?

Author:  Jedi Master Carr [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

Taken is having an amazing run. I think it could top Paul Blart.

Author:  Libs [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

Jedi Master Carr wrote:
Taken is having an amazing run. I think it could top Paul Blart.


I'm actually seeing Taken today. On Valentine's Day. Instead of Shopaholic. What's happening to the world?

We would, of course, be seeing He's Just Not That Into You but I saw it with a girlfriend last week.

Author:  zingy [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

I haven't stressed what an AMAZING number that is for Friday the 13th. Realistically, I thought around $17m max (and just barely making my $45m four-day prediction), but this is awesome. I hope it beats The Grudge for the horror opening record.

And jesus, Taken!

Author:  GCC [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

Mammoth for Friday the 13th.

It'll drop -70% next weekend...

Author:  Maverikk [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

GRAN TORINO Warner Bros. · 2303 · $6,250,000 · $2,714 · $127,500,000

Ok, one of you box office wizards can help me out here. Somebody good with multipliers, legs, etc... From my eyes, it appears Gran Torrino will topple 145 million. Are you seeing that?

Author:  mark66 [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

Top post updated with MCN Friday Top Ten

Author:  mark66 [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

Hmmm, UNDER THE SEA 3D did pretty badly on Friday...

Author:  Mau [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

Taken's a monster.

Author:  GCC [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

What exactly is the appeal of Taken?

Also, yes, this proves piracy has little effect. Copies of this were even circulating around my office...

Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 2:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

I knew F13 was gonna be even huger than expected. And Taken is a beast!

Author:  jmovies [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 2:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

At this point, Paul Blart will most likely pass Star Wars: Special Edition as the highest grossing January film. Also if Taken continues to have these massive holds then $125M may be in play.

Author:  Jedi Master Carr [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 2:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

SFERIC wrote:
What exactly is the appeal of Taken?

Also, yes, this proves piracy has little effect. Copies of this were even circulating around my office...


I think it shows the most people don't know where to look for pirate copies. It takes forever for anybody to download a copy off the internet, so most people don't. I think the appeal is a desire for the old action films.

Author:  Harry Warden [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 2:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

Also, Paul Blart's run has been amazing. It just won't stop making money!

Increases should be especially big for holdovers, The Uninvited included.

The Messengers increased 197% on Valentine's Day.

Author:  Thegun [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 2:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

What was the last horror movie to pass 100 million? Not saying F13 is going too, but I think it should be able to hit a 2 multiplier, it was pretty well liked, so it has a chance.

Dam, we haven't had a horror movie cross 100 million since the The Grudge 5 years ago, thats insane (Twilight and I am Legend are not horror movies)

Taken is absolutely insane, it'll pass 100 million in two weeks the latest. He's just not that into you should come close too depending on how good it holds in the next weeks.

Author:  the ultimate biu [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 2:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

Scream 2

Last slasher movie to hit $100

Author:  Harry Warden [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 2:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

Hopefully, Hollywood has noticed that rating doesn't matter and R-rated horror films can and do make big money. No more PG-13 crap like The Unborn, please. The Uninvited doesn't fall into this since it isn't a horror movie.

Author:  billybobwashere [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 3:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

so yeah 2009 is basically the most insane box office year ever.

Author:  Biggestgeekever [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 3:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

Holy hell, $170+ Million top 12? For just the 3-day weekend? :hahaha: What's next, $100 Million OW for Watchmen?

Taken may just be the most ridiculous BO performance I've seen in some time. I guess people love their action movies.

Author:  BJ [ Sat Feb 14, 2009 3:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Friday Numbers

seriously, it is so insane that a Day in February will have the first non summer/holiday season 50m+ friday. Its never happened on easter, and even 2003 with its disproportionately huge october could not manage it. Even more insane is it happened a day before the historically huge valentines day. There was a 120% increase on saturday in 1998 and a 121% increase in 2004 both would push saturday over 100m.

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