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February 13-16 predictions
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Author:  Harry Warden [ Sat Feb 07, 2009 4:26 am ]
Post subject:  February 13-16 predictions
President's Day weekend:

Friday the 13th - 45M
Confessions of a Shopoholic - 14M
The International - 13.5M
Author:  DIB2 [ Sat Feb 07, 2009 4:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
Friday the 13th - 37.2m
Confessions of a Shopoholic - 11.9m
The International - 10.5m
Author:  Bryan_smith [ Sat Feb 07, 2009 7:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
is Friday the 13th really expected to go that high for the 4 days? That would be fantastic if it did.
Author:  MadGez [ Sat Feb 07, 2009 10:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
Friday the 13th - 36.9m
Confessions of a Shopoholic - 22.9m
The International - 19.5m

CoS would have been bigger had HNTIY not opened this weekend. I suspect HNTIY will be a close 2nd next weekend.
Author:  Kris K [ Sat Feb 07, 2009 11:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
Friday The 13th $33m (i'll be ecstatic as long as this passes $30m. Fingers crossed for more though. $45m seems too good to be true)
Shopaholic $14m
International $11m

HJNTIY will be no.2 after opening huge this weekend :-).
Author:  Libs [ Sat Feb 07, 2009 1:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
4-Day
Friday the 13th - 38
Confessions of a Shopaholic - 20
The International - 19

I'm guessing He's Just Not That Into You will be #2. More of a Valentine's Day choice than Shopaholic, which will skew heavily female.
Author:  zingy [ Sat Feb 07, 2009 2:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
4-Day
Friday the 13th - 45
Confessions of a Shopaholic - 19
The International - 14
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sat Feb 07, 2009 5:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
I could see SHOPAHOLIC doing just decent or somewhat breaking out. I'd consider something around 20 Million breaking out for it. I hope it does well. I really want to see it.

FRIDAY THE 13TH will do 40 Million for the 4-Day weekend for sure, and more is not out of the question.
Author:  Bryan_smith [ Sat Feb 07, 2009 7:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
Does anyone else think that this weekend is shaping up to be just like MLK weekend last month? Films like Gran Torino overperformed, while Bride Wars and such performed well over the two weeks leading up to it, allowing for strong holds that were accompanied by great debuts.

With Valentine's Day on Saturday, it will add some bonus dollars for some films like He's Just Not That Into You and Shopaholic. The Friday the 13th has the added bonus of opening on Friday the 13th, and we know how the date thing helped the Omen. So if both Shopaholic and the International can break out into the 18-20 million range for the 4 days, we could be looking at another record breaking long weekend, and also another huge step up from last year.

So let's say next weekend goes something like this for the 4 days;

1. Friday the 13th -- 40 million
2. He's Just Not That Into You -- 26 million ( i fully expect close to 10 million on V-day)
3. Confessions of a Shopaholic -- 20 million
4. The International -- 18 million
5. Taken -- 15 million
6. Coraline -- 12 million
7. Pink Panther 2 - 10 million (look at the first one's second weekend hold)
8. Paul Blart -- 7 million
9. Push -- 7 million
10. Slumdog Millionare -- 7 million
11. Gran Torino -- 5 million
12 Hotel for Dogs -- 4 million

Top 12 total: 171 million

Not quite as strong as MLK weekend, but still darn good, and a record for that weekend!
Author:  getluv [ Sat Feb 07, 2009 11:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
I think Shopaholic has breakout potential. Needs a 4-day total over 20m and some good reviews.
Author:  Michael A [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 1:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
Firday the 13th- 38 million (I'm hearing great buzz, excellent marketing and the bonuses of the 13 gimmick, and the fact that girls love these horror flicks as date movie, should give this huge numbers. I'm being VERY conservative with this prediction, I think 45m+ is definitely in play, but I'm playing it safe for now.)
Confessions of a Shopaholic- 28 million (this is being terribly underestimated, I promise you that. The buzz with teenage girls is outrageous, and this kind of stupid girly humour will play huge on V day. HJNTIY is skewing a little older, so this will pick up on the younger women who didn't want to see that.)
International- 11m (this will simply get overlooked. Gran Torino and Taken have taken care of this crowd, and it won't get any help on valentines day, it's not at all a date movie obviously. It just doesn't have an advantage like the other movies that are coming out/ holding on this weekend.)
Author:  BK [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 6:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
Does nobody want to see The International?
Author:  MovieDude [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 6:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
The International is the wild card next weekend. Clive Owen has never been able to rope in a wide audience, and Sony's trailers haven't seemed very genuine, or confident, of the final product. That said, I feel like with the recession people would love to see big evil banks as antagonists in an action film. It could go either way.
As for Friday the 13th, I think that this is getting slightly overestimated based on the strength of 2009. Horror has a ceiling, and I'm not convinced this has THAT much more going for it than Halloween. Then again, I'll admit being rather biased, as I may be the only person on here who thinks the film look downright lazy.
Author:  STEVE ROGERS [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 8:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
MovieDude wrote:
The International is the wild card next weekend. Clive Owen has never been able to rope in a wide audience, and Sony's trailers haven't seemed very genuine, or confident, of the final product. That said, I feel like with the recession people would love to see big evil banks as antagonists in an action film. It could go either way.
As for Friday the 13th, I think that this is getting slightly overestimated based on the strength of 2009. Horror has a ceiling, and I'm not convinced this has THAT much more going for it than Halloween. Then again, I'll admit being rather biased, as I may be the only person on here who thinks the film look downright lazy.


Well remaking Friday The 13th really is unnecessary in the sense that you can only show so many ways teens being hacked to death and really, it's Hollywood running out of ideas.. It's only a matter of time before Hollywood remakes the immortal classic PHANTASM
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 12:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
4-day:

Friday the 13th - $39.5 million
He's Just Not That Into You - $24 million
Confessions of a Shopaholic - $19.6 million
The International - $16.8 million

F13 will probably drop 70% in its second weekend.
Author:  O [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 1:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
Bryan_smith wrote:
Does anyone else think that this weekend is shaping up to be just like MLK weekend last month? Films like Gran Torino overperformed, while Bride Wars and such performed well over the two weeks leading up to it, allowing for strong holds that were accompanied by great debuts.


I was thinking the same thing! Next weekend is looking a lot like MLK weekend. This weekend made about $124 m for the top 10. That's about $3 m more than the weekend before MLK weekend. A big plus is having Valentine's Day on Saturday which should lead to some very big grosses that day. If all three openers next weekend break out, then it can potentially beat MLK weekend, but with a high certainty it looks to be the biggest February weekend ever (beating $142 m for the top 12 of Feb 16-18, 2007).
Author:  Bryan_smith [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 2:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
It is looking more and more like a record breaking weekend next weekend.

With this weekend pulling 130 million for it's top 12 total, we will see some nice drops for the 4 days next week with the extra day AND Valentine's Day on Saturday, plus strong openers that could pump as much as 80 million into the box office for the 4 days.

The only thing that I think can prevent it at this point is the fact that the box office has been on fire lately, and we all know it is going to come crashing back to reality at some point. It could be next weekend, however, I think at this point next week being huge is inevitable, and the crash will come the weekend after (ofcourse, with the excellent last month and a half, coming back down to reality is really no big deal since we are miles ahead of every other year and box office will pick up again with Watchmen)
Author:  BK [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 2:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
I want The International to do well.
Also I hope it's good unlike Vantage Point.
If it's not good then I really couldn't care less.
But it has Clive Owen and Naomi Watts too.
But since I don't live in the States I guess everyone else would know what the verdict on this is.
Then again, Paul Blart? Taken? Heh.
Author:  David [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 4:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
4-day

Friday the 13th: $40.6 million
The International: $23.5 million
Confessions of a Shopaholic: $14.9 million
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 4:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
MovieDude wrote:
As for Friday the 13th, I think that this is getting slightly overestimated based on the strength of 2009. Horror has a ceiling, and I'm not convinced this has THAT much more going for it than Halloween. Then again, I'll admit being rather biased, as I may be the only person on here who thinks the film look downright lazy.


The film has a pretty major one-two punch in terms of its release date, first with it opening on Friday the 13th, then being followed by Valentine's Day (A date that can be kind to horror flicks). It's gonna be horrendously frontloaded, but the weekend should still be strong.
Author:  Michael A [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 4:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
I see F13 playing almost exactly cloverfield in terms of BO, it will have a huge OW, with around 40m, and then the holiday will make some decent cash, and after that it topple like none other, I see the numbers being very similar as well OW: 40m+ Total: 75m+. I think a 2.0 multiplier would be excellent since everything going for it revolves around its' opening.
Author:  curtis20 [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 9:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
-- notfabio, Feb 8, 20:32
Keep in mind that RS was off pretty much by 50% on both PANTHER and HE'S JUST...

FRIDAY: Low 30's (4)
CONFESSIONS: Mid 20's (4)
INTERNATIONAL : Very High Teens (4)

Future
WATCHMEN: Mid 40's (It claims that teens - 34 males are extremely excited for it, but low awareness for outside that key demo, MTC for what it's worth doesn't see anything less than a 300 opening at this time, advance sales begin 2/13)
FIRED UP: Between 9-11
STREET FIGHTER: Mid Single Digits
MADEA: Mid 20's
JONAS: High 20's



Look like Madea is looking good for a 30+ weekend. Ok for the Watchmen.
Author:  El Maskado [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 10:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
Expected for SF considering the trailer was only on Underworld and Push. It looks like it sucks too. I think Watchmen would get a big bump from RS during opening week
Author:  Harry Warden [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 10:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
F13 seems like a good bet to do 40M or more. What's the rule on MTC (which we don't have yet) vs. RS?
Author:  The Dark Shape [ Sun Feb 08, 2009 11:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 13-16 predictions
RS was pretty close on My Bloody Valentine. I can't imagine them being far off Friday.
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