Wow, Japan is responsible for over one fourth of This Is It's overseas gross.

thats amazing

Some User Grade averages and Anticipation averages (1 = Never going to see, 2 = Unlikely to see, 3 = Undecided, 4 = Most likely will see, 5 = Will definitely see) for current or future films of the Top 100 most popular films:

Avatar: 1st
User Grade (22 reviews) - A+
Anticipation (1003 votes) - 4.4/5

Evangelion 2.0: Final Destruction: 2nd
User Grade (20 reviews) - A+
Anticipation (701 votes) - 4.7/5

Nodame Cantabile: The Final Score - Part I: 3rd
User Grade (16 reviews) - A-
Anticipation (1741 votes) - 4.7/5

Up: 4th
User Grade (27 reviews) - B+
Anticipation (834 votes) - 4.6/10

One Piece: Strong World: 5th
User Grade (12 reviews) - A
Anticipation (923 votes) - 4.7/10

This Is It: 10th
User Grade (44 reviews) - A+
Anticipation (1923 votes) - 5/5

Ultraman 2009: 12th
User Grade (3 reviews) - B+
Anticipation (528 votes) - 4.3/5

Paranormal Activity: 15th
User Grade (4 reviews) - C+
Anticipation (199 votes) - 4.9/5

Alice in Wonderland: 22nd
User Grade (0 reviews) - -
Anticipation (698 votes) - 5/5

The Lovely Bones: 32nd
User Grade (1 review) - A
Anticipation (623 votes) - 4.8/5

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus: 33rd
User Grade (-) - -
Anticipation (1013 votes) - 5/5

I wonder if Avatar will steal some of Up's hype. It will also get its 3D screens, I think. Up won't outgross WALL-E by much.

No idea how the 3D screens work in Japan yet. We may know when weekend numbers and such in a few days. 3D hasn't been nearly as big as it has been in several other countries, yet, but with Up, Avatar, and Alice in Wonderland, which is getting quite a bit of buzz, having entered the top 20 most popular films today and still has a 5/5 anticipation average, it's gonna grow. Tim Burton films do quite well in Japan (Sweeney for example was No.1 for two straight weeks, and Charlie and the Chocolate Factory grossed nearly $50m), and Depp is very popular which helps. I think Alice is gonna do 50+.

Before I talk box office numbers, that screen count of 1,114 is the most I've seen for any film. It might be a record.

Now, $14.5m (1.3bn) over the 5-day is... good. It's definitely not amazing (Potter did 18m over 5-days with a weaker opening day, Indy IV did over $13m in 2 days, for a few examples) though, and I'm pretty sure the opening day was inflated now due to the Emperor's Birthday which it opened on. $100m is definitely not a lock. However, on Eiga the user reviews are strong, but to counter that, the anticipation average isn't anything special, in fact, it's one of the lowest among the top popular films right now. So there's a good chance WOM can spread for this one.

And keep in mind, the average person in Japan sees 1.3 movies a year. Original movies almost never do well because with the ticket prices, moviegoers only see what they know they will like, basically. So tv adaptations, anime/manga adaptations, sequels, and certain studios, such as Ghibli dominate the box office.. Not to say an original film can't compete, but they very rarely do big business now.

It'll really need to have a leggy run to get to $100m, which is unlikely in my opinion. The biggest film this year for instance grossed $13m in 2-days, and barely hit $100m ($100m exact actually). And local films have better legs than Hollywood films most of the time.

I see a total around $65-70m based off the 5-day alone. Which would be good enough for 3rd of the year. Definitely far from disappointing if it falls in that range.

Nah I want this to do more than that range.

That's very unlikely, and $70m would be quite generous, that's giving exceptional legs for a Hollywood film. And this is why I made several posts trying to knock down that $100m+ many were thinking in the region.

what if it increases next weekend. i think jiffy said new year weekend holds are really good. we can never predict legs based on ow.

$70m or so would also make it the biggest original Hollywood film since... I think Finding Nemo 6 years ago, and even then, Pixar sort of makes it a non-original.

It will increase. But it's first weekend can't be more than $6m, $7m tops, if it had a $4m opening day and a $14.5m 5-day.

Normally, a $14.5m 5-day would mean $50m would be a bit difficult.

Another reason $100m isn't likely.

ROTK's 2-day = Avatar's 5-day, and ROTK barely cracked $100m ($102 I think), and that's when Hollywood films were still topping the yearly charts, not experiencing double digit drops yearly.

I'm also a little worried about Avatar's poor pta (it's only $13,000 over the 5-day). Though it was given an extremely wide release. And if 75% of the gross was 3D like SD says (tickets greater than $30 USD)... that also worries me a bit. But we'll see how it plays out. Normal price tickets probably would have meant a 5-day not much more than $10m.

ROTK performed well the first 3-4 weeks in Japan but then started to drop very heavily...Avatar i think should build more steadily. I'm not rulling out $100m yeat.

yay

Ya I really thought this would do $19-21M for 5 days but dammit

It has a huge hill to climb.

Rookies was at $34m after 9 days, and grossed $99m (or $100m, dunno which is official yet).

Rookies:

Sat-Sunday: 2-day - $12.8m
Mon-Friday: $10.6m
Sat-Sunday: 2-day - $10.6m

9 day total of $34m.


And with, what I think is a pretty low opening overall (1114 screens, 75% of it's gross was 3D, which tickets went for $30 USD), a 5-day pta of just 13,000, I don't see it doing $100m. Hollywood films, in general, are more frontloaded than local films. I'm also concerned about Eiga's anticipation average (users vote on a scale 1-5 on how likely it is they'll see the film) going from 5/5 when it opened, to 4.4 in a week. It's the second lowest in the top 10. I don't think WOM is bad, the user reviews are very strong, but it's interesting.

opening day-5-day total multipliers (5-day-finishing multiplier):

Avatar - 3.7
Harry Potter 6 - 4.6 (5.2)
This Is It - 9.1 (5.0 so far, should be 5.1/5.2 in the end)

Harry Potter's 5-day was slightly deflated due to opening on Ladies' Day (women pay half price), and This Is It was met with a massive response (it's the only country left showing it after Sony re-released it due to demand). Avatar will benefit next weekend when everything increases (usually around 30/40%, but recent years have all been smaller films which might mean something, but let's say it increases by 40% anyway. Using a 2-day of 6.5m this past weekend, that'd mean roughly a second weekend of $9m. And it needs a multiplier of 7 using the 5-day to reach $100m. It's not impossible, but a multiplier of 7 is extremely difficult for a 5-day openers, few get with a 2-day opening. I can't think of any big Hollywood films that have received a multiplier near 7 with a 2-day opening in the past 5, 6 years, never mind one that opened over 5-days. And 5, 6 years ago the box office for Hollywood films was completely different than it is today.

And again, while $100m is possible, it's going to be a real challenge. And even though it appears to be a tad more frontloaded than recent 5-day openers, I'm predicting a multiplier better than them (5.5-6 for the time of year) for a total round $80m, which would be amazing, and definitely not disappointing.

According to HR, Up is at $32 million in Japan after this weekend.

Yeah, looks like it took a slight hit from Avatar (3D screen loss I guess). Wall-E gained a good bit of ground on it, I'll post the showdown in a minute.

Wall-E vs Up

Wall-E:
1. WALL-E Walt Disney Int'l $4,850,736 1 458 $10,591 0 $5,538,163 (3-day/or previews opening I guess)
1. WALL-E Walt Disney Int'l $4,493,479 2 459 $9,790 -7 $12,650,027
2. WALL-E Walt Disney Int'l $2,873,238 3 454 $6,329 -36 $17,890,694
1. WALL-E Walt Disney Int'l $2,090,971 4 456 $4,585 -27 $24,339,672
1. WALL-E Walt Disney Int'l $3,188,888 5 456 $6,993 53 $33,011,500
1. WALL-E Walt Disney Int'l $1,829,462 6 449 $4,075 -43 $38,345,676
2. WALL-E Walt Disney Int'l $1,005,204 7 392 $2,564 -45 $40,774,019
No data for week 8
10. WALL-E Walt Disney Int'l $474,775 9 278 $1,708 -32 $43,322,327

Total - $46.5 (an estimate since I can't find the actual gross).
__________________________________________________________________________________________

Up:

1. Up Walt Disney Int'l $6,992,874 1 663 $10,547 0 $6,992,874
2. Up Walt Disney Int'l $5,886,910 2 664 $8,866 -16 $17,398,410
3. Up Walt Disney Int'l $4,038,915 3 661 $6,110 -31 $24,671,421
?. Up $2,600,000 (est.) - 36% $32,000,000 (est.)


Actually, it didn't lose much at all. I was thinking it was at 27 after last weekend. Though it does look like Avatar might have caused a tiny dent, but certainly nothing serious.

Damn this took forever to find, my eyes hurt:

Dec. 26-27

1 初 Avatar 20世紀フォックス映画 TOHOシネマズ日劇ほか 1
2 2 Nodame Cantabile The Movie I 2
3 1 ONE PIECE FILM STRONG WORLD 東映 丸の内TOEI1ほか 3
4 3 Up TOHOシネマズ日劇ほか 4
5 4 Kamen Rider x Kamen Rider／W＆ディケイドMOVIE大戦2010 東映 丸の内TOEI1ほか 3
6 初 釣りバカ日 1
7 5 2012 ソニー・ピクチャーズエンタテインメント 丸の内ルーブルほか 6
8 6 Professor Layton And The Eternal Diva 東宝 シネマメディアージュほか 2
9 7 Ultraman Galaxy Legend　THE MOVIE ワーナー・ブラザース映画 新宿ミラノほか 3
10 8 THE 4TH KIND　フォース・カインド ワーナー・ブラザース映画 丸の内ピカデリーほか 2

Just rankings here, btw, except the the few that have been revealed.


This December has been so strong. The only year I see this decade that compares is 2004 (because of Howl's Moving Castle which opened in November, but was still doing $10m weekends through December) and 2003. 2009's December demolished 2005-2008 with ease.

One Piece - Studio expect $57m, so $55-65 (and only on 188 screens at that)
Up - $50+
Nodame Canatabile - $40+ studio projection.
2012 - $40 (a good amount being from December)

And that's just the bigger ones, there are some mild hits too.

Too early to give an accurate projection for Avatar I think (holiday last week, 3D playing probably the biggest role in any film before it, etc.).



Now the weekend rankings. We know Avatar's number, the 5-day at least, I'd expect the 2-day weekend to be something around $6/7m though. Nodame Canatabile ( yet another popular tv show) clearly had a strong hold because I read the studio is now expecting over 4b yen (40m+). I'm surprised One Piece didn't see a big drop this weekend because the manga copies they were giving out to the first viewers were supposed to have run out after 2.5m people saw it, and it was near 2m after last weekend. Up held very well against possible 3D screen loss, sub 40% drop to 2.6m (32m total). 2012 is still doing well judging by the ranking drop of just 2 places.

And the final weekend of 2009:



1. Avatar Fox Int'l $6,611,848 1 839 $7,881 0 $14,553,033
2. Nodame Cantabile: The Final Score - Part I Toho $3,011,040 2 409 $7,362 -31 $14,092,110
3. Up Walt Disney Int'l $2,589,434 4 651 $3,978 -36 $32,043,966
4. One Piece Film: Strong World TOEI $2,576,258 3 193 $13,348 -46 $32,238,129
5. Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Double & Decade: Movie War2010 TOEI $983,905 3 293 $3,358 -52 $10,844,013
6. 2012 Sony Int'l $832,318 6 538 $1,547 -33 $36,005,711
7. Free and Easy 20: Final Shochiku $740,858 1 176 $4,209 0 $740,858
8. Professor Layton and the Eternal Diva Toho $528,039 2 311 $1,698 -49 $2,553,849
9. Fourth Kind, The Warner Bros Int'l $525,400 2 237 $2,217 -44 $2,992,481
10. Public Enemies TOWA $492,611 3 325 $1,516 -44 $5,793,690


While it's not too important, Avatar just missed making the Top 10 Opening Weekends of 2009:



Avatar's 2-day is closer to This Is It's 5.7m (50m total) than HP6's 10.5m (93m total) though, and the 5-day is right in the middle (This Is It 10.5m, Avatar 14.5m, HP6 18.1m) both also 5-day openers. We'll see what legs it'll have, too hard to predict a final gross.
Up and One Piece are heading for $50m+.
Nodame Cantabile and 2012 for $40m+.

For the comparisons between the three (I'll keep it updated in the 2010 thread, but since this is still 2009, the first week will be here):

Opening Day (Wednesday):

1. Avatar - $4m
2. HP6 - $3.6m
3. This Is It - $1.1

2-Day (Sat-Sun):

1. HP6 - $10.5m
2. Avatar - $6.6m
3. This Is It - $5.7m

5-Day (Wed-Sun):

1. HP6 - $18.1m
2. Avatar - $14.5m
2. This Is It - $10.5m


_____________________________________________________________

2nd Weekends:

HP6 - $6.6m ($38m 12-day total)
This Is it - $3.9m ($23.5m 12-day total)