Looks like we needed to grade on the curve this past weekend.
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Page 165 of 176 |
| Author: | JMorphin [ Tue Apr 19, 2016 7:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
I usually do a lot better with holdovers, but I still get burned quite often. I tend to do better with holdovers after the 2nd weekend. Usually you can extrapolate a trend after the initial dropoff of the second weekend. The theater average is the key number I look at. Though leggy films like TFA and the first Greek Wedding have no clear pattern, the "average" movie usually drops off at a rate which you could track. The two biggest factors affecting/changing the theater average dropoff is if the theater loss is significant and the amount of opener competition hitting the same demograpics with the holdover movie. If you account for these variables just right, you can expect a Christian movie "annihilating" an older one of the same genre, or a kid's movie pushing down an older holdover family movie. But then there are even other factors to consider, such as "how does a live-action kid's movie affect an animated movie geared for kids as opposed to animated vs animated, live-action vs live-action). That's why BO predicting is still a fun challenge, because there are so many factors :p I've also noticed that movies of a similar rating, such as R VS R within the same genre can have a greater effect than say a R-rated comedy opening against a PG-13 comedy holdover. Sometimes an older PG-13 movie could actually be helped by spillover/sneaking in to a popular R-rated opener, depending on the genre/demographics. |
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| Author: | JMorphin [ Tue Apr 19, 2016 7:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
one additional factor I forgot to mention are holiday weekends. They screw up all the percentages :p |
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| Author: | Chippy [ Tue May 10, 2016 9:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
1. JMorphin- 81.82% 2. Rolling Thunder- 76.57% 3. lilmac- 75.27% 4. Barnett- 74.05% 5. Lights Camera Action- 70.82% 6. theBigE- 70.12% 7. misterglass- 67.74% 8. King87698- 66.39% 9. Chippy- 64.5% 10. MikeMash4- 63.31% For some reason it's not letting me enter actuals, so... Here they are! Almost all of us sucked, and I sucked a ton! |
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| Author: | Rolling Thunder [ Tue May 10, 2016 9:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
Looks like we needed to grade on the curve this past weekend.
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| Author: | Chippy [ Tue Nov 01, 2016 11:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
Once again the Actuals were not posted, and I didn't snap a shot of the winners. So.. good job everyone! You're all winners! |
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| Author: | Chippy [ Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
There are FOUR new movies to predict this weekend. |
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| Author: | Chippy [ Tue Jan 10, 2017 10:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
Top 9: 1. Rolling Thunder - 87.71% 2. JMorphin - 81.74% 3. theBigE - 79.09% 4. misterglass - 77.89% 5. Barnett - 77.83% 6. moviegeek151 - 77.81% 7. Chippy - 76.91% 8. King87698 - 75.07% 9. Lights Camera Action - 70.35% Derby broke, so no actuals, but these are it. |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Tue Feb 14, 2017 12:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
I came in 2nd!!!! |
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| Author: | JMorphin [ Tue Feb 14, 2017 7:16 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
lilmac wrote: I came in 2nd!!!! nice, and you broke 80 too 
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| Author: | Chippy [ Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:33 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
I came in last. |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Sat Feb 18, 2017 6:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
oh my! oh my! oh my! I might actually come in first!! I'm usually one of the bottom feeders. This ranks up there with getting 100% on Toy Story 3's opening weekend ($110.3M) in the BOM Derby back in the day. Please, actuals - don't fail me now. |
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| Author: | Rolling Thunder [ Mon Feb 20, 2017 10:20 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
If this was a game with timeouts, I would have burned all 3 already. I'm really languishing with openers lately. |
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| Author: | Chippy [ Mon Feb 20, 2017 11:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
A Cure for Wellness FUCKED ME UP. All that marketing for NOTHING. |
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| Author: | Chippy [ Tue Feb 21, 2017 6:44 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
lilmac wrote: oh my! oh my! oh my! I might actually come in first!! I'm usually one of the bottom feeders. This ranks up there with getting 100% on Toy Story 3's opening weekend ($110.3M) in the BOM Derby back in the day. Please, actuals - don't fail me now. Oops. |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
.03 ?? Seriously?! |
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| Author: | JMorphin [ Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
Rolling Thunder wrote: If this was a game with timeouts, I would have burned all 3 already. I'm really languishing with openers lately. same here! |
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| Author: | JMorphin [ Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
lilmac wrote: .03 ?? Seriously?! That must hurrrrrt. |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Sat Feb 25, 2017 2:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
Should have stuck with my $1.5M prediction for Collider! Ended up guessing $2.5M. I was like "It can't open THAT low, can it???" |
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| Author: | JMorphin [ Sat Feb 25, 2017 8:24 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
lilmac wrote: Should have stuck with my $1.5M prediction for Collider! Ended up guessing $2.5M. I was like "It can't open THAT low, can it???" well, I'm eating my mouth with Rock Dog. It's hard gauging these low-appeal kid movies. |
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| Author: | Rolling Thunder [ Sun Feb 26, 2017 10:31 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
Historically, Collide should have opened to $2m or more, based on studio and theater count. Shows history can't always direct the future. |
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| Author: | Chippy [ Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
Fifty Shades fell much harsher than I thought. Oh well. I should secure this win. First in a while. |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
Congrats. You were pretty bullish on Get Out. |
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| Author: | JMorphin [ Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:41 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
Chippy wrote: Fifty Shades fell much harsher than I thought. Oh well. I should secure this win. First in a while. Congratz! You did very well on BOT too! |
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| Author: | Rolling Thunder [ Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:57 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
My opener struggles continue. That Collide PTA was atrocious - didn't think it would fare as poorly as Rock the Kasbah, especially with the PG-13 rating. Looks like nobody bought a ticket for it trying to sneak into Get Out. |
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| Author: | Chippy [ Mon Mar 06, 2017 5:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Derby Game Discussion Thread |
Gonna be TIGHT for the first place spot... |
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