I think last January has proven that hit movies can be released in any month. We haven't had a $100+ million grosser released in January ever since the Star Wars re-release back in 1997! (Black Hawk Down doesn#t count, it was just expanded then). And after 12 years Taken and Paul Blart both came out in January and grossed $145+ million at the box-office! Who'd have thought?!

Last January was pretty huge but that was in part thanks to an underwhelming December. With films like Avatar, Nine, Sherlock Holmes, It's Complicated, The Princess and the Frog and Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 it's unlikely this situation will repeat.


So here are the contenders at the top spot of January:

January 8th

Leap Year (Amy Adams romcom)
Daybreakers (vampire actioner starring Ethan Hawke)

January 15th (MLK weekend)

Book of Eli (Denzel Washington/Gary Oldman postapocalyptic action flick)
Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil (is this still coming out?!)
The Spy Next Door (Jackie Chan meets The Pacifier)

January 22nd

Legion (another apocalyptic actioner)
Tooth Fairy (The Rock in a family comedy)

January 29th

Edge of Darkness (Mel Gibson in an action-thriller)
When in Rome (Kristen Bell romcom)

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There are a few more releases but these are the only ones with any imaginable chance at the top spot of the month.

The problem with Daybreakers, Book of Eli and Legion and that they will just compete way too much with each other for any of them to really break out. All will do somewhere in the $40-75 million range I suppose and I doubt that's enough to top the month.

Leap Year reminds me a lot of New in Town so it won't make much of a blip either. When in Rome is unlikely to break out either. There's still no trailer for Hoodwinked II so I'd rule that out as well.

Thus I'm left with three options: The Spy Next Door, Tooth Fairy and Edge of Darkness. The problem of The Spy Next Door is that it'll get direct competition from Tooth Fairy in its second weekend. On the other hand it does kinda remind me of Paul Blart. Tooth Fairy could be another family hit for The Rock whose The Game Plan grossed $80+ million as far as I can remember.

Edge of Darkness on the other hand is Gibson's big return to acting, Martin Campbell is an indicator that it might not suck and the success of Law Abiding Citizen and Taken show that there's a market for these films.

I'd say it's between Edge of Darkness and Tooth Fairy but I give the former the edge.

Edge of Darkness

Edge of Darkness, hopefully. The Tooth Fairy looks terrible.

I betting on EOD to. I mean it's MG's big return to acting and everyone agrees the trailer looks awesome. It should deffentially follow the paths of other adult January thrillers like Gran Torino and Taken. I'm predicting a 30mill opening weekend and 130 to 140mill domestic.

Excellent analysis Lecter and it is between TF if it is the next PB and EOD.

Ranges
Leap Year 16-42
Daybreakers 18-45
Book of Eli 45-78
Hoodwinked 2 42-68
Spy Next Door 9-33
Legion 11-40
Tooth Fairy 45-90
Edge of Darkness 45-130
When in Rome 18-45

Edge of Darkness - $103m
Leap Year - $72m
Book of Eli - $67m
Tooth Fairy - $58m
The Spy Next Door - $53m
When in Rome - $51m
Daybreakers - $40m
Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil - $34m
Legion - $24m

Tooth Fairy and Spy will hurt each other.

You really see Leap Year doing that well? It is much more reminiscent to me of New in Town than, say, Bride Wars or 27 Dresses.

Honestly I have no idea how it looks (other than Amy Adams starring) - though I did model it on Bride Wars and 27 Dresses (actually right in between).

Plus its the only rom-com until Valentine's Day I think.

Actually I cant seem to even recall what New in Town was haha. Need to look that one up, but rings a bell.

Based on trailer, I don't see Edge of Darkness breaking out to anywhere close to $100m. I think 2009 was a fluke year, so no 2010 January movie will approach $100m.

Given the slate of films, the standard $65m-$80m range for most Denzel films may be enough to get Book of Eli #1 of January, since I see both Daybreakers and Legion being duds.

I swear people are over-estimating Edge of Darkness. I know, I know, Taken was a huge hit, but the trailer for "Darkness" isn't nearly as cool--it tries too hard to be "important" and plot-driven (government conspiracy!), whereas Taken's advertising just played up the bad-ass elements.

I voted for The Book of Eli. Denzel is one of the most reliable stars going, the trailers have been very strong, and it will stand out more with its action/horror/science fiction/general-ass-kickery vibe.

Leap Year reminds me of P.S. I Love You.

You also predicted When in Rome up there

Oh and I'm not certain about Edge of Darkness breaking $100 million but I think even $90 million will be enough to rule the month.

Edge of Darkness with 110m+.