Release Date Change Thread
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Jedi Master Carr
Extraordinary
Joined: Fri Nov 11, 2005 9:51 pm
Posts: 11637
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 Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule shawman wrote: Jedi Master Carr wrote: shawman wrote: Rorschach wrote: I'll say it again: The movie is overall good for the film probably.
Domestically, its a bad move for sure. But overseas, its a great move IMO. Look at the OS it had to face: Transformers, Ice Age, and HP6. Transformers is going to do 400m+ OS, Ice Age is going to do 450m+, and HP6 is going to do 650m+. That is insane competition OS.
On the other hand, in November, none of the big films really seem like they'll do that big OS. 2012 has the OS market all to itself in November. I think you are setting huge expectations for OS performance. Dollar is extremely strong against all currencies except yen. Also Obama is a strong proponent of strong dollar and so dollar will be even stronger as we approach the summer. I expect HP6 to gross < HP3 in OS markets. IA2 will certainly fall below IA while TF2 will also struggle to match TF. TF sold over 7M tickets in SK and will struggle to match that number. I would say 525M for HP2, 400M for IA3 and 360M for TF2. Potter will do at least 600. I say 625 right now. The dollar isn't that much higher than the Euro. It is at the same level as when GOF came out actually. You are also not counting inflation. If you add that in POA made well over 600. You are looking at today's dollar value. It will appreciate even more. I remember some economist in UK predicting Pound/Dollar exchange rate to be around 1.2. That is way higher than even POA levels. Plus potter has been dropping in japan with every release. I doubt HP6 will match ticket sales of OOTP or GOF 2 years after last book release. The Euro though is doing better than the pound. I just don't see Potter doing less than 600 WW. It might have trouble reaching GOF level but it will do 600-625. Plus you aren't considering Latin America. Potter has been going up in every Latin American country since Chamber of Secrets.
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| Sun Jan 25, 2009 10:50 pm |
 
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule _________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Mon Jan 26, 2009 1:19 am |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Yay! What are people thinking for the next on? Titanic record shattered? By inflation at that point plus all the good will earned from The Dark Knight, even without a tragic Heath Ledger situation the knew film should at least be the biggest opener of all time. _________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Mon Jan 26, 2009 1:22 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm
Posts: 6166
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Unless we have a confirmation that Nolan is on board, I am kind of skeptical. If the movie is releasing in 2011 we should get a studio announcement very soon.
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The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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| Mon Jan 26, 2009 10:44 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule shawman wrote: Unless we have a confirmation that Nolan is on board, I am kind of skeptical. If the movie is releasing in 2011 we should get a studio announcement very soon. You really think they have the balls to do it without him? I mean Nolan is practically a household name now (hard to do for a director) and I think they would receive a lot of backlash without him. I personally would absolutely refuse to see the third batman if Nolan is not attatched, even though he is my favorite superhero of all time. Further than that I would have a personal hatred for WB and would only watch one of their movies if it was something I REALLY wanted to see. _________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Tue Jan 27, 2009 12:55 am |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Um...yeah...ok.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Wed Jan 28, 2009 1:35 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48626
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Steven Soderbergh's The Girlfriend Experience will open May 22 (in limited release, I presume).
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| Thu Jan 29, 2009 8:03 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Terminator moved up a day.
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| Wed Feb 04, 2009 8:01 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am
Posts: 21882
Location: Places
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Interesting...going for the big 5 day gross...though depending on how much steam it blows off, it may not be #1 for the weekend.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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| Wed Feb 04, 2009 8:40 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Good idea, at least one day on which it won't have to compete with NatM2 at all. I still think it is stupid to release such blockbusters on the same weekend. When was the last time that happened? One is a follow-up to a $250 million grosser, the other to a $150+ million grosser...
Anyway, looking good for $120 million 5-day now.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Thu Feb 05, 2009 5:52 am |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Am I the only one who has been totally overreading toy story in 3D? That comes out in October? What? That seems like it should be a huge tentpole in the summer or december, why is it tossed in October?
_________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Thu Feb 05, 2009 4:30 pm |
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jmovies
Let's Call It A Bromance
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 7:22 pm
Posts: 12333
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule I can definitely see a $130M+ 5-day for Terminator.
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| Thu Feb 05, 2009 4:44 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 22677
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Benjamin Milk wrote: Am I the only one who has been totally overreading toy story in 3D? That comes out in October? What? That seems like it should be a huge tentpole in the summer or december, why is it tossed in October? Its a re-release of the original Toy Story. It should do well but October is good for it. Disney had to put it in a slot where there is no other major 3D film and fair enough away from Up yet less than a year away from TS3. It should do solid numbers in October but nothing out of the ordinary. _________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
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| Thu Feb 05, 2009 5:35 pm |
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Fun-N-Net
Hatchling
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2009 6:42 am
Posts: 14
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Benjamin Milk wrote: ok; off topic but I just started using this site, how do I quote a prior post like that?
Btw, oops on the shopoholic thing, I was multitasking, and I admit I ignored friday the thirteenth cause I HOPE it will bomb, even though I'm sure your right and it'll probably perform like saw V To quote a post just click on 'Quote' button on right top on a post...
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| Fri Feb 06, 2009 1:14 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am
Posts: 22677
Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Though I dont like Thursday openings (BO wise) its a good move because the only film that opens the week before is Angels and Demons.
There's an open opportunity there as the week before Memorial Day weekend can cater for a much stronger weekend. NATM should have opened that weekend as it would have benefited from Memorial day in its 2nd weekend AND kept a 2 week gap between it and Up.
_________________
What's your favourite movie summer? Let us know @
http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=85934
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| Fri Feb 06, 2009 7:34 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
Posts: 11514
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule May/June/August are WAY too light I think. Some films from March and dare I say APRIL, should actually move into these months. The Hannah Montana movie, or 17 Again would do $100 m + imo in August. Even some September/October films could potentially make their way into the summer I think. Nov/Dec look like they can do well, as does Sept/Oct, and Feb - April, but the summer is the weakest spot of this year I think.
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| Sun Feb 08, 2009 2:43 pm |
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zingy
College Boy Z
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:40 pm
Posts: 36662
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule I think May and July are very solid, but June's the weak spot. Even August looks good with G.I. Joe, Inglourious Basterds, Halloween II and Final Destination 4. In June, Year One and Land of the Lost could go either way. And other than Transformers, nothing out of June looks to gross $150m+. Pelham and Proposal should make $100m+, though, and probably Land of the Lost.
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| Sun Feb 08, 2009 2:48 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48626
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Zingaling wrote: I think May and July are very solid, but June's the weak spot. Even August looks good with G.I. Joe, Inglourious Basterds, Halloween II and Final Destination 4. In June, Year One and Land of the Lost could go either way. And other than Transformers, nothing out of June looks to gross $150m+. Pelham and Proposal should make $100m+, though, and probably Land of the Lost. My Sister's Keeper is a potential $100M+ grosser. The book is extremely popular (hello, Jodi Picoult) and it's from the same director/screenwriter that made The Notebook.
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| Sun Feb 08, 2009 2:56 pm |
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Nazgul9
Extraordinary
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 12:32 pm
Posts: 11289
Location: Germany
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule May is too light? *lol* How many more films do you want to cram in there?
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| Sun Feb 08, 2009 7:39 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule If anything, May is crowded.
Wolverine, Night at the Museum 2, Terminator: Salvation, Up, Star Trek, Angels and Demons...I see each grossing at least $120 million.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Feb 08, 2009 7:44 pm |
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Libs
Sbil
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 3:38 pm
Posts: 48626
Location: Arlington, VA
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Dr. Lecter wrote: If anything, May is crowded.
Wolverine, Night at the Museum 2, Terminator: Salvation, Up, Star Trek, Angels and Demons...I see each grossing at least $120 million. I think Star Trek should move to early June but I know that won't happen.
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| Sun Feb 08, 2009 7:45 pm |
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Dr. Lecter
You must have big rats
Joined: Sat Oct 16, 2004 4:28 pm
Posts: 92093
Location: Bonn, Germany
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule A June spot would help it, but yeah, they won't move it again.
_________________The greatest thing on earth is to love and to be loved in return!
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| Sun Feb 08, 2009 7:47 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule May is very strong however it's the only summer month you can say that about. July is actually looking fine but not great. August looks decent, all in all the summer is better than I thought it was, will definitely be off of 2008's but maybe only by a % or 2, which we can afford considering the incredible winter we've had, and the strong spring that is still to come.
_________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Sun Feb 08, 2009 8:47 pm |
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Harry Warden
Orphan
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:47 pm
Posts: 19747
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Does anyone think that Tyler Perry being in Star Trek will help it at all?
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| Sun Feb 08, 2009 9:20 pm |
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Michael A
Joined: Sat Dec 27, 2008 4:48 am
Posts: 6245
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Re: The New Movie Release Date Schedule Chia Pet wrote: Does anyone think that Tyler Perry being in Star Trek will help it at all? haha um no not really, unless he plays a very key character? I didn't see where he's at in it. _________________Mr. R wrote: Malcolm wrote: You seem to think threatening violence against people is perfectly okay because you feel offended by their words, so that's kind of telling in itself. Exactly. If they don't know how to behave, and feel OK offending others, they get their ass kicked, so they'll think next time before opening their rotten mouths.
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| Sun Feb 08, 2009 10:06 pm |
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