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2004 multipliers - Updated as of 2/7/05
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Author:  DP07 [ Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:58 pm ]
Post subject:  2004 multipliers - Updated as of 2/7/05
The following are multipliers for films that have been in wide release this year (over 600 theaters). Previous BO is not included when calculating the multipliers since that money is earned before opening weekend. Therefore, it is not reflective of a films legs. This might not be a perfect method, but it's the best simple method*.

For a few films, such as Garden State and Napoleon Dynamite, I used the weekend with the highest theater count as the opening. I then subtracted the previous BO. So, it's not a great comparision to films that opened in wide release, but it's better then nothing, IMO.

I created a seperate chart for films released after mid-December. Since the holidays have such an enormous impact on the multipliers of these films, it becomes impossible to compare them with films from any other time of the year.

Of the 12 films on the main chart with multipliers over 4, only 6 of them opened wide at over 2000 locations. It makes the performances of The Notebook and The Polar Express all the more impressive when you consider that they are the only two films in this category to have a multiplier over 4.8, yet, both are over 6. It's amazing also, for National Treasure which could near a mutliplier of 5 after opening in 3000+ theaters.

*I have another idea as to how to calculate multipliers for such films, but I haven't finished the formula, and there are a few problems with it.

The list:
1 ) The Polar Express -- 6.626640435
2 ) The Notebook -- 6.015842632
3 ) Napoleon Dynamite -- 5.897103092
4 ) Garden State -- 5.053393803
5 ) F 9/11 -- 4.976307654
6 ) Shall We Dance? -- 4.907308774
7 ) National Treasure -- 4.791153568
8 ) Without a Paddle -- 4.299619719
9 ) Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind -- 4.203753597
10 ) Collateral -- 4.089058346
11 ) The Terminal -- 4.051604195
12 ) Shaun of the Dead -- 4.044778687
13 ) The Passion -- 3.923008221
14 ) Shrek 2 -- 3.890126989
15 ) Dodgeball -- 3.801995039
16 ) A Cinderella Story -- 3.775221219
17 ) Ella Enchanted -- 3.715071413
18 ) Ray -- 3.709989107
19 ) The Incredibles -- 3.667203149
20 ) Home on the Range -- 3.604299862
21 ) Hidalgo -- 3.574374377
22 ) Princess Diaries 2 -- 3.527841649
23 ) Mean Girls -- 3.52202428
24 ) Spiderman 2 -- 3.508887705
25 ) Garfield -- 3.468839165
26 ) Man on Fire -- 3.422715128
27 ) Raising Helen -- 3.412332712
28 ) I Heart Huckabees -- 3.399066587
29 ) The Butterfly Effect -- 3.395131691
30 ) Shark Tale -- 3.379124869
31 ) Ladder 49 -- 3.373136449
32 ) The Bourne Supremacy -- 3.355591828
33 ) Harold and Kumar go to White Castle -- 3.330162627
34 ) Miracle -- 3.322298397
35 ) The Manchurian Candidate -- 3.294714121
36 ) Along Came Polly -- 3.177972515
37 ) Ocean's Twelve -- 3.171245471
38 ) White Chicks -- 3.170980743
39 ) The Forgotten -- 3.17005295
40 ) Cellular -- 3.168496118
41 ) The Ladykillers -- 3.142189485
42 ) Starsky & Hutch -- 3.139757382
43 ) Confessions of a Teenage Drama Queen -- 3.13454225
44 ) Two Brothers -- 3.121135192
45 ) Vanity Fair -- 3.102823807
46 ) Johnson Family Vacation -- 3.068141342
47 ) Saved! -- 3.060047818
48 ) Jersey Girl -- 3.03734074
49 ) 50 First Dates -- 3.033909339
50 ) Friday Night Lights -- 3.02214443
51 ) Saw -- 3.019458957
52 ) Anchorman -- 2.999125609
53 ) Walking Tall -- 2.995644378
54 ) The Prince and Me -- 2.995467224
55 ) Taxi -- 2.989544991
56 ) Christmas With the Kranks -- 2.988037384
57 ) Birth -- 2.987281137
58 ) Hero -- 2.97784626
59 ) Agent Cody Banks 2 -- 2.934144289
60 ) Little Black Book -- 2.886442494
61 ) Catch That Kid -- 2.867673901
62 ) Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason -- 2.863089591
63 ) Scooby Doo 2 -- 2.860155659
64 ) King Arthur -- 2.859856454
65 ) Taking Lives -- 2.852244345
66 ) Troy -- 2.845984924
67 ) Twisted -- 2.829936191
68 ) The Grudge -- 2.820418764
69 ) Superbabies -- 2.801268568
70 ) Around The World In 80 Days -- 2.801166215
71 ) The Stepford Wives -- 2.778780331
72 ) I, Robot -- 2.775035197
73 ) Blade: Trinity -- 2.72264256
74 ) The Day After Tomorrow -- 2.716483316
75 ) 13 Going on 30 -- 2.713923956
76 ) Team America: World Police -- 2.705041221
77 ) Barbershop 2 -- 2.685930168
78 ) Harry Potter 3 -- 2.663550882
79 ) Laws of Attraction -- 2.655893492
80 ) Eurotrip -- 2.644737509
81 ) The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie -- 2.640384524
82 ) Teacher's Pet -- 2.637669365
83 ) Kill Bill Vol. 2 -- 2.637256224
84 ) Secret Window -- 2.629628633
85 ) Raise Your Voice -- 2.588310865
86 ) Hellboy -- 2.564749677
87 ) Paparazzi -- 2.556713983
88 ) After the Sunset -- 2.552273199
89 ) Suspect Zero -- 2.53188147
90 ) Surviving Christmas -- 2.525621905
91 ) Mr. 3000 -- 2.513090982
92 ) Soul Plane -- 2.512163613
93 ) Anacondas -- 2.505661089
94 ) Benji: Off the Leash -- 2.505278439
95 ) You Got Served -- 2.499664364
96 ) Connie and Carla -- 2.477285296
97 ) Thunderbirds -- 2.46133634
98 ) The Alamo -- 2.456514575
99 ) The Punisher -- 2.441790095
100 ) The Whole 10 Yards -- 2.441741017
101 ) Dirty Dancing: Havana Nights -- 2.434878276
102 ) The Girl Next Door -- 2.430032549
103 ) Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow -- 2.423748601
104 ) Open Water -- 2.406577595
105 ) Breakin' All the Rules -- 2.403890518
106 ) Catwoman -- 2.403020227
107 ) Wimbledon -- 2.388140023
108 ) Wicker Park -- 2.378011483
109 ) The Cronicles of Riddick -- 2.376069783
110 ) New York Minute -- 2.355712227
111 ) The Cookout -- 2.353899498
112 ) My Baby's Daddy -- 2.331281092
113 ) Win a Date With Tad Hamilton! -- 2.323950904
114 ) Van Helsing -- 2.32235045
115 ) Exorcist: The Beginning -- 2.316494056
116 ) First Daughter -- 2.262810942
117 ) Sleepover -- 2.261856107
118 ) The Village -- 2.250368511
119 ) Dawn of the Dead -- 2.207525472
120 ) Resident Evil 2 -- 2.20261663
121 ) Envy -- 2.201359512
122 ) Bobby Jones -- 2.184446244
123 ) Spartan -- 2.174277568
124 ) Alfie -- 2.154887442
125 ) Welcome to Mooseport -- 2.135891522
126 ) The Perfect Score -- 2.132004287
127 ) Torque -- 2.12508559
128 ) Godsend -- 2.111773241
129 ) Alien Vs. Predator -- 2.096631417
130 ) Yu-Gi-Oh! -- 2.083464499
131 ) Chasing Liberty -- 2.005370401
132 ) Seed of Chucky -- 1.946970547
133 ) The Big Bounce -- 1.945068509
134 ) Against the Ropes -- 1.936515031
135 ) Alexander -- 1.910323285
136 ) Never Die Alone -- 1.82696142
137 ) Club Dread -- 1.647635725

Late December releases:
1 ) The Aviator -- 8.636057533
2 ) Meet the Fockers -- 5.220331506
3 ) The Life Aquatic -- 5.124636121
4 ) Spanglish -- 4.768090486
5 ) Fat Albert -- 4.716921901
6 ) The Flight of the Pheonix -- 4.142177897
7 ) Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events -- 3.880435993
8 ) Darkness -- 3.563316506
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Mon Oct 18, 2004 9:06 pm ]
Post subject: 
The Notebook's legs are truly amazing considering the bad reviews it has gotten...but it is also so deserving!

The Passion's, Spider-Man 2's and Shrek 2's legs are IMMENSLY IMPRESSIVE considering their huge openings!
Author:  e1828 [ Mon Oct 18, 2004 9:07 pm ]
Post subject: 
It would be interesting to see how this year's movie legs compare to prior years, such as the percentage or number of movies with 4.0 multipliers or higher and those with 2.5 or less.
Author:  sako [ Mon Oct 18, 2004 9:11 pm ]
Post subject: 
Dr. Lecter wrote:
The Notebook's legs are truly amazing considering the bad reviews it has gotten...but it is also so deserving!

The Passion's, Spider-Man 2's and Shrek 2's legs are IMMENSLY IMPRESSIVE considering their huge openings!


Well thats because their Wednesday and Thursday is now counted in the weekend. You add those to Spiderman 2 weekend, it has only like 2.4.
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Mon Oct 18, 2004 9:13 pm ]
Post subject: 
sako16 wrote:
Dr. Lecter wrote:
The Notebook's legs are truly amazing considering the bad reviews it has gotten...but it is also so deserving!

The Passion's, Spider-Man 2's and Shrek 2's legs are IMMENSLY IMPRESSIVE considering their huge openings!


Well thats because their Wednesday and Thursday is now counted in the weekend. You add those to Spiderman 2 weekend, it has only like 2.4.


True, but still. Also The Passion's and Shrek 2's Wednesday and Thursday haven't been all that huge.
Author:  sako [ Mon Oct 18, 2004 9:28 pm ]
Post subject: 
With the 5-day I have Shrek 2 at 3.41 and Passion at 2.96

Still great, but for Spiderman 2 6-day because it also had that 4-day weekend, 2.07.
Author:  DP07 [ Mon Oct 18, 2004 10:02 pm ]
Post subject: 
Monthy averages:
January - 2.457319872
Febuary - 2.716334743
March - 2.881862747
April - 2.770533132
May - 2.805733191
June - 3.520931881
July - 2.932179448
August - 2.819011087
September - 2.820067241
September (without Garden State and Napoleon) - 2.573703298

You can see the effect of the summer weekdays at their height in June and July. June happened to have more midsized openers with good legs, while July had more frontloaded fanboy films and blockbusters. Still, July is second overall. I think the more accurate Sept. number would be without Garden State or Napoleon Dynamite. It will increase somewhat with many the films still earning grosses, but they are largely done, so the change won't be great. Considering that, the three lowest averages belong to January, Febuary, and September. Those three months have low weekdays, and not much in the way of holidays. March and April no doubt benefited somewhat from spring break. Meanwhile, the other two summer months of August and May were between the mid-summer, and the slow months, in terms of weekday numbers. They also each had major holidays to increase the multipliers of their films (Memorial Day and Labor Day). They might each be higher if not for many frontloaded franchise/blockbuster films released during those months.
Author:  DP07 [ Mon Nov 01, 2004 11:02 pm ]
Post subject: 
Updated with the weekend numbers.

-The Notebook has reached a multiplier of 6.
-Shall We Dance? and Shaun of the Dead now look to join the 4 multiplier club.
-Ray also has an excellent chance of reaching a multiplier of 4.
Author:  Plot [ Mon Nov 01, 2004 11:42 pm ]
Post subject: 
I think Ray, and maybe the Incredibles are going to be in the top 10 by the end of their runs.
Author:  xiayun [ Mon Nov 01, 2004 11:53 pm ]
Post subject: 
Plot wrote:
I think Ray, and maybe the Incredibles are going to be in the top 10 by the end of their runs.


I think Ray will definitely. The Incredibles will be a little harder to get a multiplier of over 4 simply because its opening will be so huge. However, Monsters Inc. was released around the same time(i.e. without the summer weekday help) and had to go against the first Harry Potter on its third weekend, and it still got a multiplier of 4.089. Polar Express is certainly no where near the competition for The Incredibles, so 300M domestic gross is certainly within reach.
Author:  DP07 [ Thu Nov 04, 2004 10:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
Yeah, I do expect The Incredibles to make it. Not by much, in the 4.0-4.2 range.
Author:  DP07 [ Tue Nov 09, 2004 9:32 pm ]
Post subject: 
Updated. I expect Ray and The Incredibles to eventually get multipliers of over 4. This month I'm certain The Polar Express will get it, in fact, I would bet it will top a multiplier of 5. You don't need to look any further then Elf an the Santa Clause 2 to know why. As December approaches these films hold up very well. After the Sunset might have an outside chance. I think Spongebob and National Treasure will fall short even with help from Thanksgiving weekend. Bridget Jones would seem almost certain to make it if you count this week in 500 theaters as the opening weekend. Although will a massive expansion, I'm not sure it would be fair to count it.
Author:  torrino [ Tue Nov 09, 2004 9:51 pm ]
Post subject: 
Yeah. TPE looks like a leggy film, even if it isn't that appealing to teens. The Incredibles should get there, like all Pixar films.
Author:  DP07 [ Wed Dec 01, 2004 7:28 pm ]
Post subject: 
Updated with the numbers at the end of November. For Bridget Jones I used the multiplier from the second week on. With the massive expansion it had, the multiplier from the first weekend would not accurately portay the film's legs. It would have a mutliplier of about 4, even though the film has held up poorly.

-Shaun of the Dead and Shall We Dance have reached multipliers of 4.
-Ray will top out with a multiplier of about 3.7 unless it gets help from the oscars.
-The Incredibles looks like it will be the first PIXAR film not to have a multiplier of 4. I hope it might somehow make it, but the data indicates that it won't
-The Polar Express will have a multiplier of about 5.
-Seed of Chucky should fall short of a multiplier of 2, making it one of the biggest openers to ever do so.
-National Treasure is showing great legs, and I now expect it to become the 12th film of the year with a mutliplier of 4.
Author:  zingy [ Wed Dec 01, 2004 7:34 pm ]
Post subject: 
I'm not very surprised that The Incredibles won't get over 4x, to be honest. I mean, with all the competition, I didn't expect much more over 4x. The Polar Express is doing very well, as is National Treasure.
Author:  Algren [ Wed Dec 01, 2004 8:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 2004 multipliers - Updated as of 11/30
Quote:

8 ) Collateral -- 4.088825566

44 ) The Incredibles -- 3.060538809

61 ) Troy -- 2.845984924

99 ) Catwoman -- 2.403020227


Collateral, brilliant multiplier, one of the best of the year :D :D :D

Incredibles :shock: already at a 3.0, and it still has another $50 Million (ish) to go :shock: :D

Troy, ooooh so near to 3.0!!!

Catwoman, no too bad ;)
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Thu Dec 02, 2004 11:14 am ]
Post subject: 
DP07 wrote:
Updated with the numbers at the end of November. For Bridget Jones I used the multiplier from the second week on. With the massive expansion it had, the multiplier from the first weekend would not accurately portay the film's legs. It would have a mutliplier of about 4, even though the film has held up poorly.

-Shaun of the Dead and Shall We Dance have reached multipliers of 4.
-Ray will top out with a multiplier of about 3.7 unless it gets help from the oscars.
-The Incredibles looks like it will be the first PIXAR film not to have a multiplier of 4. I hope it might somehow make it, but the data indicates that it won't
-The Polar Express will have a multiplier of about 5.
-Seed of Chucky should fall short of a multiplier of 2, making it one of the biggest openers to ever do so.
-National Treasure is showing great legs, and I now expect it to become the 12th film of the year with a mutliplier of 4.


Great list, David, thanks for the great job, very appreciated! :D

The ones that I find most surprising are Shall We Dance and The Notebook. I think The Notebook's legs blew away pretty much everyone. Unbelieveable, especially in the middle of the summer and with rather average reviews.

And Shall We Dance had a rather negative pre-release buzz and yet it looks like it'll reach a multiplier of 5! :shock:

Bad for Chucky, but it was expected.

The Polar Express will end up in the TOP 5 of the movies with best legs of the year in my opinion. Other movies that will finish on that list are, in my opinion, The Notebook, The Aviator, Closer and The Phantom of the Opera.
Author:  DP07 [ Mon Dec 06, 2004 10:36 pm ]
Post subject: 
Updated with this weekend's numbers. The Polar Express is already at #13, and in a couple weeks it will be #6. Meanwhile, National Treasure is quickly moving up the chart.
Author:  BigMoviePimp [ Tue Dec 07, 2004 10:59 am ]
Post subject: 
DP07, you rock!

Hopefully, National Treasure will get a multiplier of over 5.
Author:  DP07 [ Mon Dec 13, 2004 11:41 pm ]
Post subject: 
Updated.

The most interesting thing is that besides just Seed of Chucky, Alexander looks likely to fall short of a multiplier of 2. That would make it the biggest opener ever to do so! The current record holder is The Blair Witch Project 2 with an opening of 13.2m. It's not too suprising though that the record would be broken by a Thanksgiving release. Films with the release date tend to have weak multipliers.

BTW, had it opened on a Friday I think The Matrix Revolutions likely would have had a multiplier of less then 2.

FYI, Blair Witch Project 2's multipler was 1.999192371. Talk about close. :shock:
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Tue Dec 14, 2004 8:17 am ]
Post subject: 
Don't you think there is a chance that Seed of Chucky will still break the 2-multiplier?
Author:  lamcam [ Tue Dec 14, 2004 12:57 pm ]
Post subject: 
Go Polar!! It will definitely break into the top 5 soon.
Author:  DP07 [ Tue Dec 14, 2004 5:28 pm ]
Post subject: 
Dr. Lecter wrote:
Don't you think there is a chance that Seed of Chucky will still break the 2-multiplier?


I doubt it. It needs over $600,000. I don't think it will get that much from this point on in its run. It has a horrible PTA after a weekend of $181,176. It will lose all its theaters quickly with the film that are opening, and only get about $100,000 more. I don't think it can get a half a million more from second run theaters considering it's such a small film.
Author:  DP07 [ Thu Jan 13, 2005 6:59 pm ]
Post subject: 
Updated. I didn't think it would be fair to compare late December releases to films from the rest of the year. In total there are 17 films in the elite 4 multiplier club; 12 of them from before December, and 6 of those were released in over 2,000 theaters.

Alexander has set the record for the largest opener to fall short of a multiplier of 2. However, to be fair it had the disadvantage of being a Thanksgiving release.
Author:  DP07 [ Mon Feb 07, 2005 10:48 pm ]
Post subject: 
Updated. That's nearly it for the year, although a few films have a bit more to earn. Alexander has closed, and it's multiplier is a depressingly low 1.91. Seed of Chucky has also finished shy of a multiplier of 2.

A majority of films last year fell short of a multiplier of 3. Less then a decade ago a multiplier of 4 was below average and now it is rare while a multiplier of 3 was disastrous, and now it is good. Ten years from now will a multiplier of 2.5 be considered excellent?
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