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Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=46006 |
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Author: | Proud Ryu [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 4:19 pm ] |
Post subject: | Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
I'm starting this thread upon request to archive the Box Office Mojo (BOM) Derby player stats. Awhile ago I compiled all the derby rankings for every game because I wasn't very satisfied with the way that BOM listed the champion rankings. They rank people only by points or average accuracy, which really doesn't give people due credit. Also, BOM only has limited indices by which to show the champions. Here is a list of various measures and their shortcomings, in increasing value: Points: This is mostly just a meausre of how many games a player has played, as it is cumulative score, which rewards longevity but not skill. It would almost be more meaningful just to have a ranked list of who has played the most games. BOM has lists of players by points by month, year, and all-time. Maximum Score: It's nice to see various people's top score, but everybody gets lucky now and then, so it doesn't really mean much. Average Score: This is the sum of all your game accuracies divided by the number of games played. This is how BOM determines the champion list, and they currently require a 10-game minimum and to have played in one of the last 3 games to make the list. However, there is one key shortcoming of this measure that renders it not very useful as a measure of skill: it does not take into account the relative difficulty of games. In extreme cases, you could be ranked #1 with a score of 60%, but it could still bring your average down. Or you could get #300 out of say 600 with a score of 80% and it could bring your average up. Neither appropriately rewards or punishes your lifetime average. And this is as good of a list as BOM keeps. You could simply play the easy games to inflate your score and appear high atop the rankings after just 10 such games. Average Rank: This measure eliminates the problem of relative difficulty that Average Score has, and BOM does list it for individual players, but for some reason they don't use it as an index for champions. Even so, there is a key problem with this measure as well: it does not take into account the number of players in each game. Again using an extreme case, you could be #1 out of 100 relatively low-skilled players players, with only a modest score, yet it would obviously help your average rank, or you could be #300 out of 1000 relatively high-skilled players, with a great score, and it could still hurt your average rank. Average Percentile: Your percentile in each game is the % of players you beat in that game, thus it eliminates the problems of relative game difficulty, number of players, and relative set skill of players, so clearly it is a better measure of your skill vs. other players than the measures listed above. The only slight downfall is that it doesn't take into account the score distributions for each game. For example, you could have two games where you were at the 90th percentile, however one game could have low-skewing scores and the other high-skewing scores, which would make achieving the 90th %-ile in the low-skewing game more impressive, because you beat the mass of players by a higher margin. Average Relative-to-Average Score: This is the solution to all of the problems above. For each game, you calculate your score divided by the average score for that game, and take the average of these scores for your lifetime score. This shows you, for each game, how well you stacked up against the set of players for that game. It rewards or punishes you appropriately for your score given the difficulty of the game, the number of players in the game, and relative skill set of the players in that game. It also places you appropriately given the distribution of the scores. Note: relative-to-median would essentially be closer to percentile, thus not as useful. It would be ideal if BOM would list players this way, but since they don't, and I like to see what the rankings are for the best measure of skill, I keep a separate updated list of derby game stats. This way I can also make charts using whatever criteria I like. In this thread, I can post the charts of these measures periodically, along with other stats, like I have done in other threads, and there can be more concise archive of them. Also, if there is a certain set of criteria you want to see people ranked by (i.e. minimum # of games played, last n games played, etc), you can request it and I can post the chart here. It might be fun to keep a separate KJ player list, but I'd have to have most people tell me to add them. So far as I know no one else here keeps a complete separate list of the derby stats, so I'll keep on top of it. The one thing I can't account for is changes in user names (or new accounts). If someone changes their account name, when I add the derby game data I won't know that and it will compile as a different user. This is something that BOM can do, of course, but the only way I could do it is to recopy all the data every week or get a data dump from them. So, if you want to be sure all your past games are accounted for on these lists, just let me know what your previous user name(s) was and I'll update the past game data with your current name. Let me know if you have suggestions. Enjoy! |
Author: | Proud Ryu [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 4:47 pm ] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
This is my chart for the top 100 using BOM's criteria of a 10 game minimum having played one of the last three. Update: Games through end of 2008 Note: I may not have your stats accurate if you changed your BOM user name at some point. PM me or post your previous BOM user name(s) if you want so that I can have more accurate stats.
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Author: | Mr. R [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 4:54 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
This is the best thread in quite a while. And one of the most useful. We need that. I have a suggestion to have several separate lists depending on the total games played - like for those who played 50, 100, 200, 250 and 300 to see who are the real derby monsters. We all can set up a new account once we get on the learning curve, and many people do that to raise their rank. It would be a good method to give credit to those who play consistently for a long time and motivate new players to keep the game's integrity. P.S. It's also a good deal to put people's previous names up there. It's just not cool if you were a shitty player for couple of years, improved your skills and registered a new account to be considered a bright new star with average score of 84%. That's not how it should be. |
Author: | Proud Ryu [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 5:03 pm ] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I do agree that veteran players should be recognized. Let me post those charts. This is the list of 300+ game players again. I am drawing from a pool of 14,377 distinct user names, which will be off by the number of user name changes.
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Author: | Trillian [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 5:33 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
Proud Ryu wrote: ... a good argument for using a much higher minimum game requirement. Rumpelschtiltzchen wrote: It would be a good method to give credit to those who play consistently for a long time and motivate new players to keep the game's integrity. I agree Proud Ryu, please, rise the minimum! ![]() Proud Ryu wrote: just PM me or post your previous BOM user name(s). PM sent! |
Author: | Proud Ryu [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 5:42 pm ] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Here is the list of 200+ game all-time champions. There were 93 players total in the 200+ group. Congrats to xiayun and again to Scott. I remember Brandon Gray being pretty tough when he played.
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Author: | Proud Ryu [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 5:48 pm ] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Here is the 100+ game all-time top 100 champ list. We see several more heavy hitters, many of whom I know posted here. There were 316 players in this group.
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Author: | Proud Ryu [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 5:54 pm ] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
And the 50+ game top 100 all-time champ list. This is a pretty good mark I think to consider yourself a "hall of famer" if you will. I have 695 players in this group.
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Author: | The Scottie [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 6:49 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
Ah yes, Ragnarok, I remember him being one of the greatest in predicting history. He was a good sport too, even eating his own humble pie if I score higher than him. |
Author: | Chippy [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:04 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
I didn't make a single list ![]() |
Author: | Proud Ryu [ Thu Oct 30, 2008 7:46 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
Chip [Bot] wrote: I didn't make a single list ![]() Are you ChipMunky? If so, you prob. will soon. You're at 102 on the 100+ games list, and your stats are solid. |
Author: | Proud Ryu [ Fri Oct 31, 2008 12:18 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
Just for fun, here is the list of the top 100 players by their maximum score. 45 players have max scores of 0. 1151 have gotten 90%. 5519 have gotten 80% Average max score is 71.82% Spoiler: show |
Author: | misutaa [ Fri Oct 31, 2008 3:35 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
Rumpelschtiltzchen wrote: This is the best thread in quite a while. And one of the most useful. We need that. I have a suggestion to have several separate lists depending on the total games played - like for those who played 50, 100, 200, 250 and 300 to see who are the real derby monsters. We all can set up a new account once we get on the learning curve, and many people do that to raise their rank. It would be a good method to give credit to those who play consistently for a long time and motivate new players to keep the game's integrity. P.S. It's also a good deal to put people's previous names up there. It's just not cool if you were a shitty player for couple of years, improved your skills and registered a new account to be considered a bright new star with average score of 84%. That's not how it should be. Changing your name doesn't erase your previous account though, it just changes your name. But cannot you just add the name together proud ryu? Because I saw my name twice on your last list. (I changed my name from Mr. Sparkle to misutaa). |
Author: | Mr. R [ Fri Oct 31, 2008 5:56 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
Misutaa wrote: Changing your name doesn't erase your previous account though, it just changes your name. I was talking about people who change accounts to raise up in the ranks, and nobody knows who they were before. |
Author: | misutaa [ Fri Oct 31, 2008 6:42 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
Rumpelschtiltzchen wrote: Misutaa wrote: Changing your name doesn't erase your previous account though, it just changes your name. I was talking about people who change accounts to raise up in the ranks, and nobody knows who they were before. Oh I see, players who create new accounts. |
Author: | Proud Ryu [ Fri Oct 31, 2008 7:39 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
Misutaa wrote: But cannot you just add the name together proud ryu? Because I saw my name twice on your last list. (I changed my name from Mr. Sparkle to misutaa). Thanks Misutaa, I'll update your name in my data. The trouble is if someone changed their name after I copied all the data (I think I did this in Feb), then in all future games it registers in my summary as a different person, because I don't have any way to know what someone changed their name to, unlike BOM. ![]() So I'll sort of have to rely on people telling me if they changed their name, so any non-KJ'ers who changed their name probably won't get accounted for. This is the one downfall I can't really overcome unless I manually copy all the game data every single week (no - it takes hours) or get some kind of feed from BOM (not likely). The only clue I would have is if one user name's game history does not overlap with another. Oh well. I will be able to account for almost everybody. |
Author: | Proud Ryu [ Wed Jan 14, 2009 4:56 pm ] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Here is the chart of champs from 2008 who played at least 10 games. This is the top 30 of that group of 663 (so top < 5%). I see plenty of KJ names here - nice year for all! Highlights to those with "perfect attendance."
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Author: | MGKC [ Thu Jan 15, 2009 2:05 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
Oh wow, I'm still on one of these lol. I definitely need to pick the Derby back up again. Nice charts! |
Author: | matatonio [ Thu Jan 15, 2009 2:12 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
Im in two of the charts. Cool. Does the 97.11% still stand? |
Author: | Viper Rodgers [ Thu Jan 15, 2009 3:19 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
Wow... Been awhile since i played... I can't believe i am on 3 of those! It became too much of a grueling task each week to try and be precise and use past knowledge to crunch the numbers... |
Author: | Proud Ryu [ Thu Jan 15, 2009 11:36 am ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
matatonio wrote: Im in two of the charts. Cool. Does the 97.11% still stand? Yeah - going to be a tough one to beat. It's most likely going to have to be a perfect storm weekend with no new entries, a fairly predictable date, and fairly high grosses for all. Week after Christmas is usually the highest scoring. I was pondering the odds we'll ever see a 100% - extraordinarily low at any rate. I don't know what the record for most 100's for one player in a game is, but it seems like 3 or 4. |
Author: | The_Game_1 [ Thu Jan 15, 2009 12:20 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
I think its 5. I was searching after I got 4 100% two weeks ago. |
Author: | Proud Ryu [ Thu Jan 15, 2009 6:07 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
The_Game_1 wrote: I think its 5. I was searching after I got 4 100% two weeks ago. So far I've checked back to the beginning of 2008 - and 5 happened once. Nice job on 4 - happened 3 times since Jan 08. Every other game it was 2 or 3, expect in the last game where 1 was the max (someone actually perfected The Unborn!). In the 5 perfects game, that person still didn't make the top 100! Judging by this distribution, the odds of someone getting 10 perfects is probably worse than 1 in a billion, even if we assume that players keep getting better. The distribution is pretty close to normal, so the probability of successive perfects accelerates downward. Somebody might get a 98% eventually though. |
Author: | MGKC [ Thu Jan 15, 2009 9:05 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
BTW, how did you get Krem's Excel2BB Converter to still work? It seems now like all it does it post the code for me (follow the link to the Excel2BB and you'll see the same). |
Author: | Proud Ryu [ Fri Jan 16, 2009 12:05 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: Box Office Mojo Derby Player Stats Thread |
MG Casey wrote: BTW, how did you get Krem's Excel2BB Converter to still work? It seems now like all it does it post the code for me (follow the link to the Excel2BB and you'll see the same). Hmm, well it is working for me. After you paste the code from the macro, to make sure it shows what you want, preview the post. I didn't change anything in the macro or code at all. If you still have trouble, I'd email one of the administrators. |
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