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Russia Box-Office Thread http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=42643 |
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Author: | Mr. R [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 10:12 pm ] |
Post subject: | Russia Box-Office Thread |
Deleted |
Author: | Box [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 10:43 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
This is a great thread idea. But do you honestly expect Russia to surpass America as the biggest box office market in the world by 2025? America's population by then will be near 340m, and assuming a similar viewing percentage, and a conservative ticket price increase of 3% per annum, ticket prices will be at least $12, maybe $13 then. The US box office should be at $20B at least by then. Russia's market would have to increase by more than 21% a year every year without interruption to reach that figure. I suspect that what will happen, instead, is that theatre going in general will give way to home viewing, as the home entertainment systems will acquire more and more of the features of cinema. I wouldn't be surprised if attendance figures in America actually declined due to changing cultural patterns. So basically, it will be useless to talk about which market is the biggest film market, as box office receipts will become less and less a significant determinant of that. |
Author: | Mr. R [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 10:55 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Box wrote: This is a great thread idea. But do you honestly expect Russia to surpass America as the biggest box office market in the world by 2025? America's population by then will be near 340m, and assuming a similar viewing percentage, and a conservative ticket price increase of 3% per annum, ticket prices will be at least $12, maybe $13 then. The US box office should be at $20B at least by then. Russia's market would have to increase by more than 21% a year every year without interruption to reach that figure. It's a challenging goal, but we will work hard to achive it. Don't forget that current population of CIS is already 278 million, and assuming that most of the countries will only grow and develop, it's not that unattainable. Box wrote: I suspect that what will happen, instead, is that theatre going in general will give way to home viewing, as the home entertainment systems will acquire more and more of the features of cinema. I wouldn't be surprised if attendance figures in America actually declined due to changing cultural patterns. So basically, it will be useless to talk about which market is the biggest film market, as box office receipts will become less and less a significant determinant of that. That's why I said #1 movie market by 2030 It basically includes all cinematic experiences. |
Author: | misutaa [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:06 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
It is definitely the biggest grower and will very soon become the second biggest. But as for passing the US.....I'm not sure...a possibility but it still has a lot of work to do to get there. |
Author: | Corpse [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:10 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
We are talking about how much all films in a given territory make for the annual year, right? |
Author: | misutaa [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:11 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Corpse wrote: We are talking about how much all films in a given territory make for the annual year, right? Yup...well at least I am |
Author: | Corpse [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:14 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
And, currently, the biggest markets are: North America Japan United Kingdom South Korea France Germany Correct, in that order? |
Author: | misutaa [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:15 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Corpse wrote: And, currently, the biggest markets are: North America Japan United Kingdom South Korea France Germany Correct, in that order? Not sure about the order...perhaps UK is second followed by Japan/Germany? Isn't Germany bigger than France? |
Author: | Corpse [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:18 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Misutaa Supaakoru wrote: Corpse wrote: And, currently, the biggest markets are: North America Japan United Kingdom South Korea France Germany Correct, in that order? Not sure about the order...perhaps UK is second followed by Japan/Germany? Isn't Germany bigger than France? I don't think Japan is behind the United Kingdom. It's the only market outside NA where a film has been able to gross over 200M. I could be wrong though. And all the Japanese films are said to be doing better and better each year, and for the first time in over 30 years, there are over 3000 theatres again. Though the decline in Hollywood films this decade is taking it's toll.. Im not sure about France and Germany. Whenever I look up some big film, that film always grosses about the exact same in both countries. |
Author: | Jiffy [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:19 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
I would say that France and Germany are bigger than South Korea? Or does the latter just have that much more breadth? |
Author: | Box [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:19 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Corpse wrote: And, currently, the biggest markets are: North America Japan United Kingdom South Korea France Germany Correct, in that order? No, depending on what year, the UK and France pass Japan, which has been stagnant for over a decade now. Those three are usually between $1.5-2B. Probably over $2B now in the case of France and UK. No clue about Japan. I'd say right now it's North America United Kingdom Japan or France Germany South Korea Australia or Russia/CIS |
Author: | Box [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:20 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Jiffy208 wrote: I would say that France and Germany are bigger than South Korea? Or does the latter just have that much more breadth? France is much bigger than South Korea; probably double, actually. Germany is considerably bigger too. South Korea's box office in 2005 was $850m. It's definitely a huge market, but all the others are above $1B. |
Author: | misutaa [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:21 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Corpse wrote: I don't think Japan is behind the United Kingdom. It's the only market outside NA where a film has been able to gross over 200M. I could be wrong though. And all the Japanese films are said to be doing better and better each year, and for the first time in over 30 years, there are over 3000 theatres again. Though the decline in Hollywood films this decade is taking it's tole. Im not sure about France and Germany. Whenever I look up some big film, that film always grosses about the exact same in both countries. True, but annually, don't film on average gross more in the UK? hmmm i'll do some research |
Author: | misutaa [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:24 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
According to BOM, UK's weekend totals are usually higher than Japan's. |
Author: | Box [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:26 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
I would say that the UK is now bigger than Japan. Japan's box office, I think, is around $2B. I suspect the UK's is now bigger than that. I think France might give them both a run for the title, though. Interesting tidbit: Japan had 7,457 theatres in the 1960s before TV hit theatres big time. The number dove to 1,734 in 1993, but has increased considerably since to around 3,000 now, I think. |
Author: | Corpse [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:31 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Misutaa Supaakoru wrote: Corpse wrote: I don't think Japan is behind the United Kingdom. It's the only market outside NA where a film has been able to gross over 200M. I could be wrong though. And all the Japanese films are said to be doing better and better each year, and for the first time in over 30 years, there are over 3000 theatres again. Though the decline in Hollywood films this decade is taking it's tole. Im not sure about France and Germany. Whenever I look up some big film, that film always grosses about the exact same in both countries. True, but annually, don't film on average gross more in the UK? hmmm i'll do some research The UK probably does now since Hollywood films have been on the decline for several years (this is the reason several 900M+ grossers have failed to hit 1B. AWE and HP5 being two very recent examples). Though local films are on the rise, so it may balance itself out eventually. |
Author: | Box [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:36 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Ok, I just took a look at BOM, and there's no way that the UK is at $2B for 2007. Closer to $1.5-1.6B. I suspect that Japan is safely ahead of it. And France would be well behind with around $1.3B. Does ANYONE have any actual data for 2007? |
Author: | Corpse [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:38 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Japan's 2008 total should be very strong this year since Ponyo on a Cliff By the Sea is being released very soon. Tickets have been on sale for 3 months I read somewhere. And (I dont understand it), but the studio said after they aired the trailer, that if 100 people saw the trailer, 105 people would see the movie. And it certainly doesn't hurt that 1/6 of Japan's Population has seen Spirited Away, and Howl's Moving Castle nearly hit 200M a few years back. |
Author: | Mr. R [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:39 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
I wish I had a premier pass on showbizdata...then I wouldn't have to jump around each country. They give these numbers (in millions): 2007 UK $1,755 Japan $1,720 South Korea $1,266 France $1,120 Germany $1,015 Mexico $867 Italy $840 Spain $830 Australia $767 2006 Japan $1,624 UK $1,619 Germany $1,150 France $1,114 South Korea $1,012 Spain $835 Mexico $777 Australia $698 Italy $612 2005 Japan $1,971 UK $1,636 France $1,029 Mexico $971 Germany $848 South Korea $845 Australia $644 Italy $603 Spain $452 I believe Russia should be #10 behind these. This year we'll probably jump a few lines up. |
Author: | Box [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:40 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Corpse wrote: Japan's 2008 total should be very strong this year since Ponyo on a Cliff By the Sea is being released very soon. Tickets have been on sale for 3 months I read somewhere. Yes, but France has already had their biggest film of all time. In the UK, don't forget the Quantom Solace/HP double-punch. Those films could rake in $200m combined, enough to offset gains made by Ponyo. |
Author: | Corpse [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:41 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Box wrote: Corpse wrote: Japan's 2008 total should be very strong this year since Ponyo on a Cliff By the Sea is being released very soon. Tickets have been on sale for 3 months I read somewhere. Yes, but France has already had their biggest film of all time. In the UK, don't forget the Quantom Solace/HP double-punch. Those films could rake in $200m combined, enough to offset gains made by Ponyo. 250M for Ponyo. |
Author: | Box [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:42 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Rumpelschtiltzchen wrote: I wish I had a premier pass on showbizdata...then I wouldn't have to jump around each country. They give these numbers (in millions): 2007 UK $1,755 Japan $1,720 South Korea $1,266 France $1,120 Germany $1,015 Mexico $867 Italy $840 Spain $830 Australia $767 2006 Japan $1,624 UK $1,619 Germany $1,150 France $1,114 South Korea $1,012 Spain $835 Mexico $777 Australia $698 Italy $612 2005 Japan $1,971 UK $1,636 France $1,029 Mexico $971 Germany $848 South Korea $845 Australia $644 Italy $603 Spain $452 I believe Russia should be #10 behind these. This year we'll probably jump a few lines up. Oh, thank you!!! That's massive for South Korea! I find France's number to be a bit disappointing. They have a bigger attendance figure than Japan, though. It's just that tickets in Japan are so insanely high. |
Author: | Mr. R [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:45 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
This year is gonna be even bigger for most of these. South Korea and Italy are other two big growth centers. |
Author: | Corpse [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:46 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Does anyone have totals for 2008 so far? Exciting stuff. |
Author: | Box [ Tue Jul 01, 2008 11:47 pm ] |
Post subject: | Re: RUSSIA & CIS Watch |
Well, it seems that the $1B+ markets don't really register consistent growth, so Russia should have no problem surpassing them in the next few years. Countries like South Korea and Italy are too small to catch up. And China's and India's markets seem to be a mess |
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